Dynamic Investment Appraisal

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T E Van Der Lei - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.

  • Dynamic Investment Appraisal economic analysis of mobile production concepts in the process industry
    Computer-aided chemical engineering, 2015
    Co-Authors: G Bas, T E Van Der Lei
    Abstract:

    Abstract Due to technological developments new small-scale mobile production concepts have become available in the processing industry. These novel production concepts have mobility as an attribute and the profitability of the production concepts depends, amongst others, on how well this attribute can be exploited as an important part of the cash flows of these concepts may depend on optimal location choice in volatile markets. Current Investment Appraisal techniques do not take the effect of these Dynamics into account and therefore typically disregard the value of mobility, which may lead to the underestimation of the novel production concepts’ value and consequently prohibits their deployment. In this paper we combine an agent-based model simulation with a net present value calculation to account for these Dynamics in the Appraisal of these new production concepts. The agent-based model uses a q-learning algorithm to simulate an existing Dynamic world scale market in which we introduce the new production concepts and let them compete with the existing industry. During the simulation, we measure the cash flows of the production concepts, which are used in the net present value calculation to appraise the concepts. We illustrate the approach with a case study in which we appraise a stationary and mobile production concept. We show that quality of Investment decisions may be improved with a simulation that is able to capture the Dynamics of mobile production concepts. Future work will focus on removing some of the current limitations and on introducing lead times in the simulation to enable the valuation of the new production concepts’ shorter time to market.

G Bas - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.

  • Dynamic Investment Appraisal economic analysis of mobile production concepts in the process industry
    Computer-aided chemical engineering, 2015
    Co-Authors: G Bas, T E Van Der Lei
    Abstract:

    Abstract Due to technological developments new small-scale mobile production concepts have become available in the processing industry. These novel production concepts have mobility as an attribute and the profitability of the production concepts depends, amongst others, on how well this attribute can be exploited as an important part of the cash flows of these concepts may depend on optimal location choice in volatile markets. Current Investment Appraisal techniques do not take the effect of these Dynamics into account and therefore typically disregard the value of mobility, which may lead to the underestimation of the novel production concepts’ value and consequently prohibits their deployment. In this paper we combine an agent-based model simulation with a net present value calculation to account for these Dynamics in the Appraisal of these new production concepts. The agent-based model uses a q-learning algorithm to simulate an existing Dynamic world scale market in which we introduce the new production concepts and let them compete with the existing industry. During the simulation, we measure the cash flows of the production concepts, which are used in the net present value calculation to appraise the concepts. We illustrate the approach with a case study in which we appraise a stationary and mobile production concept. We show that quality of Investment decisions may be improved with a simulation that is able to capture the Dynamics of mobile production concepts. Future work will focus on removing some of the current limitations and on introducing lead times in the simulation to enable the valuation of the new production concepts’ shorter time to market.

Kočí Richard - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.

  • Evaluation of the Effectiveness of the Investment Project
    Vysoká škola báňská - Technická univerzita Ostrava, 2014
    Co-Authors: Kočí Richard
    Abstract:

    Import 05/08/2014Tématem diplomové práce je zhodnocení efektivnosti investičního záměru výstavby mycí linky osobních automobilů. Teoretická část je věnována objasnění základních pojmů v oblasti investic a investičního rozhodování včetně uvedení metod hodnocení ekonomické efektivnosti investic. V praktické části je charakterizován samotný investiční záměr, jsou zde shrnuty peněžní toky plynoucí z projektu a následně je provedena analýza záměru prostřednictvím vybraných Dynamických metod hodnocení investic. Na základě výsledků analýzy jsou vypracovány návrhy a doporučení.The topic of the thesis is to evaluate the effectiveness of the Investment project for construction of the carwash building. The theoretical part is devoted to the explanation of basic concepts in the field of Investments and Investment decisions including the methods to evaluate economical efficiency of the Investments. The practical part is characterized by the very Investment project, where cash flows of the project are summarized and then analyze of the project is made through selected Dynamic Investment Appraisal methods. Based on the results of the analysis are drawn up proposals and recommendations.152 - Katedra podnikohospodářskávýborn

Lemmer Karsten - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.

  • Optimized Migration Process in Rail Traffic Using Simulation Support
    2005
    Co-Authors: Knollmann Volker, Obrenovic Miroslav, Jäger Bärbel, Lemmer Karsten
    Abstract:

    The implementation of new systems for operations control in rail traffic is characterized by an amount of heterogeneous criteria and boundary conditions (technical, operational, economical, political, etc.). Therefore it is necessary to treat all phases of the migration process systematically and to develop a consistent methodology for selection of the target system, generation and evaluation of migration strategies as well as validation of the theoretical approaches. In this contribution, we will present the framework of this methodology. In order to validate results. of theoretical methods, we use the RailSiTe® (Rail Simulation and Testing), the lab existing at the Institute of Transportation Systems of the German Aerospace Center in Braunschweig. Based on the morphological pattern, different system-configurations can be identified. In order to select the appropriate target system we use a value benefit analysis, by testing and validating technical and operational criteria in the lab. For the modelling of different system-configurations and transformation of these models into the RailSiTe®, the UML-based language RailML will be used. In the next steps, based on the activities identified by comparing the models of chosen target system with the current one, migration scenarios are to be generated. By repeated modelling with RailML, intermediate states of the system, which come up during the migration process, can be analyzed, described and simulated in the lab. Thus we can validate the scenarios referred on the operational and technical aspects as well as boundary conditions of safety requirements. To consider the economical aspects, methods of Dynamic Investment Appraisal will be applied. This general methodology helps solving the multi-dimensional optimizing problem, which occurs in connection with migration projects in the complex system rail traffic

Knollmann Volker - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.

  • Optimized Migration Process in Rail Traffic Using Simulation Support
    2005
    Co-Authors: Knollmann Volker, Obrenovic Miroslav, Jäger Bärbel, Lemmer Karsten
    Abstract:

    The implementation of new systems for operations control in rail traffic is characterized by an amount of heterogeneous criteria and boundary conditions (technical, operational, economical, political, etc.). Therefore it is necessary to treat all phases of the migration process systematically and to develop a consistent methodology for selection of the target system, generation and evaluation of migration strategies as well as validation of the theoretical approaches. In this contribution, we will present the framework of this methodology. In order to validate results. of theoretical methods, we use the RailSiTe® (Rail Simulation and Testing), the lab existing at the Institute of Transportation Systems of the German Aerospace Center in Braunschweig. Based on the morphological pattern, different system-configurations can be identified. In order to select the appropriate target system we use a value benefit analysis, by testing and validating technical and operational criteria in the lab. For the modelling of different system-configurations and transformation of these models into the RailSiTe®, the UML-based language RailML will be used. In the next steps, based on the activities identified by comparing the models of chosen target system with the current one, migration scenarios are to be generated. By repeated modelling with RailML, intermediate states of the system, which come up during the migration process, can be analyzed, described and simulated in the lab. Thus we can validate the scenarios referred on the operational and technical aspects as well as boundary conditions of safety requirements. To consider the economical aspects, methods of Dynamic Investment Appraisal will be applied. This general methodology helps solving the multi-dimensional optimizing problem, which occurs in connection with migration projects in the complex system rail traffic