The Experts below are selected from a list of 11637 Experts worldwide ranked by ideXlab platform
Seiya Uyeda - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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On Earthquake Prediction in Japan.
Proceedings of the Japan Academy. Series B Physical and biological sciences, 2013Co-Authors: Seiya UyedaAbstract:Japan’s National Project for Earthquake Prediction has been conducted since 1965 without success. An Earthquake Prediction should be a short-term Prediction based on observable physical phenomena or precursors. The main reason of no success is the failure to capture precursors. Most of the financial resources and manpower of the National Project have been devoted to strengthening the seismographs networks, which are not generally effective for detecting precursors since many of precursors are non-seismic. The precursor research has never been supported appropriately because the project has always been run by a group of seismologists who, in the present author’s view, are mainly interested in securing funds for seismology — on pretense of Prediction. After the 1995 Kobe disaster, the project decided to give up short-term Prediction and this decision has been further fortified by the 2011 M9 Tohoku Mega-quake. On top of the National Project, there are other government projects, not formally but vaguely related to Earthquake Prediction, that consume many orders of magnitude more funds. They are also un-interested in short-term Prediction. Financially, they are giants and the National Project is a dwarf. Thus, in Japan now, there is practically no support for short-term Prediction research. Recently, however, substantial progress has been made in real short-term Prediction by scientists of diverse disciplines. Some promising signs are also arising even from cooperation with private sectors.
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short term Earthquake Prediction current status of seismo electromagnetics
Tectonophysics, 2009Co-Authors: Seiya Uyeda, Toshiyasu Nagao, Masashi KamogawaAbstract:Abstract Loss of human lives as a result of Earthquakes is caused overwhelmingly by the collapse of buildings within less than a few minutes of main shocks. The most urgent countermeasure consists of two key elements. One is strengthening of weak structures and the other is short-term Earthquake Prediction. Short-term Prediction needs precursors. Although some promising precursors are reported, the prevailing views in Japan and elsewhere are overly pessimistic. The pessimism largely roots in the fact that short-term precursors are generally non-seismic and tools developed for seismology are not designed to detect them. Nonetheless, nationally funded large-scale Earthquake Prediction programs always emphasize the need to reinforce seismometer networks. They do not take into account the views of those in the science community who point to the importance of non-seismic precursors. While there are well-founded causes to be skeptical, the situation needs to be improved. One reason for skepticism is that the observations of precursors have not yet been perfect enough and another is that some important fundamental aspects of non-seismic precursors are still unresolved. We review some of these problems.
Masashi Kamogawa - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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short term Earthquake Prediction current status of seismo electromagnetics
Tectonophysics, 2009Co-Authors: Seiya Uyeda, Toshiyasu Nagao, Masashi KamogawaAbstract:Abstract Loss of human lives as a result of Earthquakes is caused overwhelmingly by the collapse of buildings within less than a few minutes of main shocks. The most urgent countermeasure consists of two key elements. One is strengthening of weak structures and the other is short-term Earthquake Prediction. Short-term Prediction needs precursors. Although some promising precursors are reported, the prevailing views in Japan and elsewhere are overly pessimistic. The pessimism largely roots in the fact that short-term precursors are generally non-seismic and tools developed for seismology are not designed to detect them. Nonetheless, nationally funded large-scale Earthquake Prediction programs always emphasize the need to reinforce seismometer networks. They do not take into account the views of those in the science community who point to the importance of non-seismic precursors. While there are well-founded causes to be skeptical, the situation needs to be improved. One reason for skepticism is that the observations of precursors have not yet been perfect enough and another is that some important fundamental aspects of non-seismic precursors are still unresolved. We review some of these problems.
Toshiyasu Nagao - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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short term Earthquake Prediction current status of seismo electromagnetics
Tectonophysics, 2009Co-Authors: Seiya Uyeda, Toshiyasu Nagao, Masashi KamogawaAbstract:Abstract Loss of human lives as a result of Earthquakes is caused overwhelmingly by the collapse of buildings within less than a few minutes of main shocks. The most urgent countermeasure consists of two key elements. One is strengthening of weak structures and the other is short-term Earthquake Prediction. Short-term Prediction needs precursors. Although some promising precursors are reported, the prevailing views in Japan and elsewhere are overly pessimistic. The pessimism largely roots in the fact that short-term precursors are generally non-seismic and tools developed for seismology are not designed to detect them. Nonetheless, nationally funded large-scale Earthquake Prediction programs always emphasize the need to reinforce seismometer networks. They do not take into account the views of those in the science community who point to the importance of non-seismic precursors. While there are well-founded causes to be skeptical, the situation needs to be improved. One reason for skepticism is that the observations of precursors have not yet been perfect enough and another is that some important fundamental aspects of non-seismic precursors are still unresolved. We review some of these problems.
Lei Zhang - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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IJCNN - DLEP: A Deep Learning Model for Earthquake Prediction
2020 International Joint Conference on Neural Networks (IJCNN), 2020Co-Authors: Haipeng Yang, Jianfeng Qiu, Lei ZhangAbstract:Earthquakes are one of the most costly natural disasters facing human beings, which happens without an explicit warning, therefore Earthquake Prediction becomes a very important and challenging task for humanity. Although many existing methods attempt to address this task, most of them use either seismic indicators (explicit features) designed by geologists, or feature vectors (implicit features) extracted by deep learning methods, to characterize an Earthquake for Earthquake Prediction. The problem of combining these two kind of features to improve final Earthquake Prediction performance remains pretty much open. To this end, we propose a deep learning model named DLEP to effectively fuse the explicit and implicit features for accurate Earthquake Prediction. In DLEP, we adopt eight precursory pattern-based indicators as the explicit features, and use a convolutional neural network (CNN) to extract implicit features. Then, an attention-based strategy is suggested to fuse these two kinds of features well. In addition, a dynamic loss function is designed to deal with the category imbalance of seismic data. Finally, experimental results on eight datasets from different regions demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed DLEP for Earthquake Prediction comparing to several state-of-the-art baselines.
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precursory pattern based feature extraction techniques for Earthquake Prediction
IEEE Access, 2019Co-Authors: Lei Zhang, Haipeng Yang, Jianfeng QiuAbstract:Earthquake Prediction is an important and complex task in the real world. Although many data mining-based methods have been proposed to solve this problem, the Prediction accuracy is still far from satisfactory due to the deficiency of feature extraction techniques. To this end, in this paper, we propose a precursory pattern-based feature extraction method to enhance the performance of Earthquake Prediction. Especially, the raw seismic data is firstly divided into fixed day time periods, and the magnitude of the largest Earthquake in each fixed time period is labeled as the main shock. The precursory pattern is a part of the seismic sequence before the main shock, on which the existing mathematical statistic features can be directly generated as seismic indicators. Based on these precursory pattern-based features, a simple yet effective classification and regression tree algorithm is adopted to predict the label of the main shock in a pre-defined future time period. The experimental results on two historical Earthquake records of the Changding-Garze and Wudu-Mabian seismic zones of China demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed precursory pattern-based features with the selected CART algorithm for Earthquake Prediction.
Christopher H. Scholz - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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Earthquake Prediction: feasible and useful?
Nature, 1999Co-Authors: Christopher H. ScholzAbstract:There has been a recent recrudescence1,2 of the long debate on the feasibility of short-term Earthquake Prediction, namely, the Prediction, with a lead time of days to weeks, of the time, location and magnitude of a future event. This type of Earthquake Prediction is inherently difficult to research and has a chequered past, with many intriguing but fragmentary observations of possibly precursory phenomena but no scientifically based and verified successes3.