The Experts below are selected from a list of 208257 Experts worldwide ranked by ideXlab platform
John M. Luiz - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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Infrastructural investment in long-run Economic growth: South Africa 1875–2001
World Development, 2006Co-Authors: Johann Fedderke, Peter Perkins, John M. LuizAbstract:Summary Productive public expenditure in the area of Infrastructure (such as roads, transportation, and housing) can play an important role in promoting Economic growth and encouraging private investment. Developments in endogenous growth theory introduce the possibility of a productive role for public expenditure. This paper seeks to explain the relationship between investment in Economic Infrastructure and long-run Economic growth by examining the experience of South Africa in a time-series context. The main findings that emerge from our examination of Economic growth and Economic Infrastructure in South Africa may be summarized as follows: investment in Infrastructure does appear to lead Economic growth in South Africa and does so both directly and indirectly (the latter by raising the marginal productivity of capital); there is weak evidence of feedback from output to Infrastructure; while the finding of an Infrastructure growth impact is robust.
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AN ANALYSIS OF Economic Infrastructure INVESTMENT IN SOUTH AFRICA
The South African Journal of Economics, 2005Co-Authors: Peter Perkins, Johann Fedderke, John M. LuizAbstract:This paper analyses long-term trends in the development of South Africa's Economic Infrastructure and discusses their relationship with the country's long-term Economic growth. A database covering national accounts data, railways, roads, ports, air travel, phone lines and electricity was established for this purpose, and may facilitate further quantitative research. PSS (Pesaran, Shin and Smith, 1996, 2001) F-tests are used to identify directions of association between Economic Infrastructure and Economic growth. These indicate long-run forcing relationships from public-sector Economic Infrastructure investment and fixed capital stock to gross domestic product (GDP), from roads to GDP, and from GDP to a range of other types of Infrastructure. There is also evidence of potential simultaneity between specific types of Infrastructure and GDP. The evidence suggests three main findings. Firstly, the relationship between Economic Infrastructure and Economic growth appears to run in both directions. Inadequate investment in Infrastructure could create bottlenecks, and opportunities for promoting Economic growth could be missed. Secondly, South Africa's stock of Economic Infrastructure has developed in phases. Policymakers should focus on choosing or encouraging the right type of Infrastructure at the right time. Thirdly, the need for investment in Economic Infrastructure never goes away. The maintenance and expansion of Infrastructure are important dimensions of supporting Economic activity in a growing economy, provided that individual projects are chosen on the basis of appropriate cost-benefit analyses. JEL: H54, L91, L92, L93, L94, L96, L98, N47, N77, E62
T. Vihma - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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Assessment of extreme flood events in a changing climate for a long-term planning of socio-Economic Infrastructure in the Russian Arctic
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 2017Co-Authors: E. Shevnina, V. Kovalenko, Ekaterina Kourzeneva, T. VihmaAbstract:Abstract. Climate warming has been more acute in the Arctic than at lower latitudes and this tendency is expected to continue. This generates major challenges for Economic activity in the region. Among other issues is the long-term planning and development of socio-Economic Infrastructure (dams, bridges, roads, etc.), which require climate-based forecasts of the frequency and magnitude of detrimental flood events. To estimate the cost of the Infrastructure and operational risk, a probabilistic form of long-term forecasting is preferable. In this study, a probabilistic model to simulate the parameters of the probability density function (PDF) for multi-year runoff based on a projected climatology is applied to evaluate changes in extreme floods for the territory of the Russian Arctic. The model is validated by cross-comparison of the modelled and empirical PDFs using observations from 23 sites located in northern Russia. The mean values and coefficients of variation (CVs) of the spring flood depth of runoff are evaluated under four climate scenarios, using simulations of six climate models for the period 2010–2039. Regions with substantial expected changes in the means and CVs of spring flood depth of runoff are outlined. For the sites located within such regions, it is suggested to account for the future climate change in calculating the maximal discharges of rare occurrence. An example of engineering calculations for maximal discharges with 1 % exceedance probability is provided for the Nadym River at Nadym.
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Assessment of extreme flood events in changing climate for a long-term planning of socio-Economic Infrastructure in the Russian Arctic
2016Co-Authors: E. Shevnina, E. Kurzeneva, V. Kovalenko, T. VihmaAbstract:Abstract. Climate warming has been and is expected to continue faster in the Arctic than at lower latitudes, which generates major challenges for adaptation. Among others, long-term planning of development of socio-Economic Infrastructure requires climate-based forecasts of the frequency and magnitude of extreme flood events. To estimate the cost of facilities and operational risks, a probabilistic form of long-term forecasting is preferable. A stochastic model allowing to simulate the probability density function (PDF) of hydrological variables based on a projected climatology, without modelling hydrological time series, is applied to estimate extreme flood events caused by spring snow melting in the Russian Arctic. The model is validated by cross-comparison of modelled and empirical PDFs using historical time series. The PDF parameters of spring flood runoff are assessed in a regional scale under the SRES and RCP climate scenarios for 2010–2039. For the Russian Arctic, an increase of 17–23 \\% in the mean values and a decrease of 5–16 \\% in the coefficients of variation of the spring flood runoff are expected. Territories are outlined where engineering calculations of the extreme maximum discharges should be corrected to account for the expected climate change. The extreme maximum discharge for a bridge construction over the Nadym River is calculated.
Johann Fedderke - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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Infrastructural investment in long-run Economic growth: South Africa 1875–2001
World Development, 2006Co-Authors: Johann Fedderke, Peter Perkins, John M. LuizAbstract:Summary Productive public expenditure in the area of Infrastructure (such as roads, transportation, and housing) can play an important role in promoting Economic growth and encouraging private investment. Developments in endogenous growth theory introduce the possibility of a productive role for public expenditure. This paper seeks to explain the relationship between investment in Economic Infrastructure and long-run Economic growth by examining the experience of South Africa in a time-series context. The main findings that emerge from our examination of Economic growth and Economic Infrastructure in South Africa may be summarized as follows: investment in Infrastructure does appear to lead Economic growth in South Africa and does so both directly and indirectly (the latter by raising the marginal productivity of capital); there is weak evidence of feedback from output to Infrastructure; while the finding of an Infrastructure growth impact is robust.
-
AN ANALYSIS OF Economic Infrastructure INVESTMENT IN SOUTH AFRICA
The South African Journal of Economics, 2005Co-Authors: Peter Perkins, Johann Fedderke, John M. LuizAbstract:This paper analyses long-term trends in the development of South Africa's Economic Infrastructure and discusses their relationship with the country's long-term Economic growth. A database covering national accounts data, railways, roads, ports, air travel, phone lines and electricity was established for this purpose, and may facilitate further quantitative research. PSS (Pesaran, Shin and Smith, 1996, 2001) F-tests are used to identify directions of association between Economic Infrastructure and Economic growth. These indicate long-run forcing relationships from public-sector Economic Infrastructure investment and fixed capital stock to gross domestic product (GDP), from roads to GDP, and from GDP to a range of other types of Infrastructure. There is also evidence of potential simultaneity between specific types of Infrastructure and GDP. The evidence suggests three main findings. Firstly, the relationship between Economic Infrastructure and Economic growth appears to run in both directions. Inadequate investment in Infrastructure could create bottlenecks, and opportunities for promoting Economic growth could be missed. Secondly, South Africa's stock of Economic Infrastructure has developed in phases. Policymakers should focus on choosing or encouraging the right type of Infrastructure at the right time. Thirdly, the need for investment in Economic Infrastructure never goes away. The maintenance and expansion of Infrastructure are important dimensions of supporting Economic activity in a growing economy, provided that individual projects are chosen on the basis of appropriate cost-benefit analyses. JEL: H54, L91, L92, L93, L94, L96, L98, N47, N77, E62
Peter Perkins - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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Infrastructural investment in long-run Economic growth: South Africa 1875–2001
World Development, 2006Co-Authors: Johann Fedderke, Peter Perkins, John M. LuizAbstract:Summary Productive public expenditure in the area of Infrastructure (such as roads, transportation, and housing) can play an important role in promoting Economic growth and encouraging private investment. Developments in endogenous growth theory introduce the possibility of a productive role for public expenditure. This paper seeks to explain the relationship between investment in Economic Infrastructure and long-run Economic growth by examining the experience of South Africa in a time-series context. The main findings that emerge from our examination of Economic growth and Economic Infrastructure in South Africa may be summarized as follows: investment in Infrastructure does appear to lead Economic growth in South Africa and does so both directly and indirectly (the latter by raising the marginal productivity of capital); there is weak evidence of feedback from output to Infrastructure; while the finding of an Infrastructure growth impact is robust.
-
AN ANALYSIS OF Economic Infrastructure INVESTMENT IN SOUTH AFRICA
The South African Journal of Economics, 2005Co-Authors: Peter Perkins, Johann Fedderke, John M. LuizAbstract:This paper analyses long-term trends in the development of South Africa's Economic Infrastructure and discusses their relationship with the country's long-term Economic growth. A database covering national accounts data, railways, roads, ports, air travel, phone lines and electricity was established for this purpose, and may facilitate further quantitative research. PSS (Pesaran, Shin and Smith, 1996, 2001) F-tests are used to identify directions of association between Economic Infrastructure and Economic growth. These indicate long-run forcing relationships from public-sector Economic Infrastructure investment and fixed capital stock to gross domestic product (GDP), from roads to GDP, and from GDP to a range of other types of Infrastructure. There is also evidence of potential simultaneity between specific types of Infrastructure and GDP. The evidence suggests three main findings. Firstly, the relationship between Economic Infrastructure and Economic growth appears to run in both directions. Inadequate investment in Infrastructure could create bottlenecks, and opportunities for promoting Economic growth could be missed. Secondly, South Africa's stock of Economic Infrastructure has developed in phases. Policymakers should focus on choosing or encouraging the right type of Infrastructure at the right time. Thirdly, the need for investment in Economic Infrastructure never goes away. The maintenance and expansion of Infrastructure are important dimensions of supporting Economic activity in a growing economy, provided that individual projects are chosen on the basis of appropriate cost-benefit analyses. JEL: H54, L91, L92, L93, L94, L96, L98, N47, N77, E62
E. Shevnina - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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Assessment of extreme flood events in a changing climate for a long-term planning of socio-Economic Infrastructure in the Russian Arctic
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 2017Co-Authors: E. Shevnina, V. Kovalenko, Ekaterina Kourzeneva, T. VihmaAbstract:Abstract. Climate warming has been more acute in the Arctic than at lower latitudes and this tendency is expected to continue. This generates major challenges for Economic activity in the region. Among other issues is the long-term planning and development of socio-Economic Infrastructure (dams, bridges, roads, etc.), which require climate-based forecasts of the frequency and magnitude of detrimental flood events. To estimate the cost of the Infrastructure and operational risk, a probabilistic form of long-term forecasting is preferable. In this study, a probabilistic model to simulate the parameters of the probability density function (PDF) for multi-year runoff based on a projected climatology is applied to evaluate changes in extreme floods for the territory of the Russian Arctic. The model is validated by cross-comparison of the modelled and empirical PDFs using observations from 23 sites located in northern Russia. The mean values and coefficients of variation (CVs) of the spring flood depth of runoff are evaluated under four climate scenarios, using simulations of six climate models for the period 2010–2039. Regions with substantial expected changes in the means and CVs of spring flood depth of runoff are outlined. For the sites located within such regions, it is suggested to account for the future climate change in calculating the maximal discharges of rare occurrence. An example of engineering calculations for maximal discharges with 1 % exceedance probability is provided for the Nadym River at Nadym.
-
Assessment of extreme flood events in changing climate for a long-term planning of socio-Economic Infrastructure in the Russian Arctic
2016Co-Authors: E. Shevnina, E. Kurzeneva, V. Kovalenko, T. VihmaAbstract:Abstract. Climate warming has been and is expected to continue faster in the Arctic than at lower latitudes, which generates major challenges for adaptation. Among others, long-term planning of development of socio-Economic Infrastructure requires climate-based forecasts of the frequency and magnitude of extreme flood events. To estimate the cost of facilities and operational risks, a probabilistic form of long-term forecasting is preferable. A stochastic model allowing to simulate the probability density function (PDF) of hydrological variables based on a projected climatology, without modelling hydrological time series, is applied to estimate extreme flood events caused by spring snow melting in the Russian Arctic. The model is validated by cross-comparison of modelled and empirical PDFs using historical time series. The PDF parameters of spring flood runoff are assessed in a regional scale under the SRES and RCP climate scenarios for 2010–2039. For the Russian Arctic, an increase of 17–23 \\% in the mean values and a decrease of 5–16 \\% in the coefficients of variation of the spring flood runoff are expected. Territories are outlined where engineering calculations of the extreme maximum discharges should be corrected to account for the expected climate change. The extreme maximum discharge for a bridge construction over the Nadym River is calculated.
