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Stefano Guerretti - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.

  • testing social network metrics for measuring Electoral Success in the italian municipal campaign of 2011
    International Conference on Cloud and Green Computing, 2013
    Co-Authors: Paolo Ceravolo, Stefano Guerretti
    Abstract:

    It is often argued that the bias hidden in Social Media data prevent from using them for any statistical inference. In this paper, we investigate the practicability of a new method for predicting Electoral outcomes that is less affected by demographics and self-selection bias. In particular, we put in place a first test to understand which social network analysis metrics can exhibit positive correlation with Electoral Success. Our analysis is not intended to use social media audience as a sample of the whole electorate but just as a sample of the supporters of a candidate. In conclusion, we speculate on the information we can extract measuring the social network of the groups of supporters. Essentially, we get an overview on the variety and extent of the segments of the population represented in these groups, and this probably correlates with the capacity to attract consensus.

  • CGC - Testing Social Network Metrics for Measuring Electoral Success in the Italian Municipal Campaign of 2011
    2013 International Conference on Cloud and Green Computing, 2013
    Co-Authors: Paolo Ceravolo, Stefano Guerretti
    Abstract:

    It is often argued that the bias hidden in Social Media data prevent from using them for any statistical inference. In this paper, we investigate the practicability of a new method for predicting Electoral outcomes that is less affected by demographics and self-selection bias. In particular, we put in place a first test to understand which social network analysis metrics can exhibit positive correlation with Electoral Success. Our analysis is not intended to use social media audience as a sample of the whole electorate but just as a sample of the supporters of a candidate. In conclusion, we speculate on the information we can extract measuring the social network of the groups of supporters. Essentially, we get an overview on the variety and extent of the segments of the population represented in these groups, and this probably correlates with the capacity to attract consensus.

Paolo Ceravolo - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.

  • testing social network metrics for measuring Electoral Success in the italian municipal campaign of 2011
    International Conference on Cloud and Green Computing, 2013
    Co-Authors: Paolo Ceravolo, Stefano Guerretti
    Abstract:

    It is often argued that the bias hidden in Social Media data prevent from using them for any statistical inference. In this paper, we investigate the practicability of a new method for predicting Electoral outcomes that is less affected by demographics and self-selection bias. In particular, we put in place a first test to understand which social network analysis metrics can exhibit positive correlation with Electoral Success. Our analysis is not intended to use social media audience as a sample of the whole electorate but just as a sample of the supporters of a candidate. In conclusion, we speculate on the information we can extract measuring the social network of the groups of supporters. Essentially, we get an overview on the variety and extent of the segments of the population represented in these groups, and this probably correlates with the capacity to attract consensus.

  • CGC - Testing Social Network Metrics for Measuring Electoral Success in the Italian Municipal Campaign of 2011
    2013 International Conference on Cloud and Green Computing, 2013
    Co-Authors: Paolo Ceravolo, Stefano Guerretti
    Abstract:

    It is often argued that the bias hidden in Social Media data prevent from using them for any statistical inference. In this paper, we investigate the practicability of a new method for predicting Electoral outcomes that is less affected by demographics and self-selection bias. In particular, we put in place a first test to understand which social network analysis metrics can exhibit positive correlation with Electoral Success. Our analysis is not intended to use social media audience as a sample of the whole electorate but just as a sample of the supporters of a candidate. In conclusion, we speculate on the information we can extract measuring the social network of the groups of supporters. Essentially, we get an overview on the variety and extent of the segments of the population represented in these groups, and this probably correlates with the capacity to attract consensus.

Lani Guinier - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.

  • The Triumph of Tokenism: The Voting Rights Act and the Theory of Black Electoral Success
    Michigan Law Review, 1991
    Co-Authors: Lani Guinier
    Abstract:

    For almost two decades, the conventional civil rights political empowerment agenda of black activists, lawyers, and scholars has focused on the election of black representatives. The belief that black representation is everything has defined litigation strategy under the Voting Rights Act. Through judicially enforced spurs to black Electoral Success, black voters gain political self-confidence and legislative influence.A set of submerged premises and assumptions concerning the goals and strategies for achieving black equality underlie this empowerment agenda. Through use of what I characterize as "the theory of black Electoral Success," this article identifies, organizes, and presents these related propositions. In black Electoral Success theory, empowerment is obtained through meaningful enfranchisement, which exists where blacks are elected. The theory thus promotes the election of individual black representatives as spokes models f or political e quality. Simply by virtue of election opportunities, black Electoral Success advances civil rights enforcement, government intervention on behalf of the poor, and black "role-model" development. Although pervasive and influential, the theory of black Electoral Success has not been explicitly endorsed as a strategy nor articulated as a coherent conceptual model. Neither political science nor legal academic literature has provided voting rights lawyers, courts, or activists with a clear theoretical understanding of their project. Instead, black Electoral Success has been pursued somewhat unselfconsciously as the inchoate rationale and frame of reference for black political and legal empowermentIn this article, my goal is to organize the divergent themes of black Electoral Success strategy with in one conceptual framework in order to give the themes more cogency and attention. Having exposed the existence of a coherent theory, I then argue that the theory posits many of the correct goals but fails to provide a realistic mechanism for achieving them. The article proceeds in three Parts. In Part I, I develop the ideological and statutory roots of black Electoral Success theory. In Part II, I analyze the inadequacies of current voting rights litigation and its failure to realize the statute's original goals. I conclude in Part III by arguing that contemporary Pre-occupation with black Electoral Success stifles rather than empowers black political participation for three reasons. First, black Electoral Success theory romanticizes black elected officials as empowerment role models. By ignoring problems of tokenism and false consciousness, the theory promotes black Electoral Success in order to legitimate the ideology of "equality of opportunity." Second, even in jurisdictions with proportionate black representation, black Electoral Success has neither mobilized the black community nor realized the promised community-based reforms. As an empowerment mechanism, Electoral control of winner-take-all majority-black districts ignores critical connections between broad-based, sustained voter participation and accountable representation. In addition, although it claims legitimacy as a practical enforcement mechanism of the original goals of the civil rights movement, district based Electoral ratification enforces only one of three original goals. While the current approach may result in the election of more black officials, it ignores the movement's concern with broadening the base of participation and fundamentally reforming the substance of political decisionsThird, the theory assumes that majority winners rule legitimately, even where such rule leads to permanent minority losers. The theory responds to minority disadvantage not by challenging majority rule but by providing a few Electoral districts in which blacks are the majority.8 Consequently, black Electoral Success theory simply recon-figures winner-take-all Electoral opportunities into geographically based, majority-black, single-member districts. Representing a geographically and socially isolated constituency in a racially polarized environment, blacks elected from single-member districts have little control over policy choices made by their white counterparts. Thus, although it ensures more representatives, district-based black Electoral Success may not necessarily result in more responsive government.In Part III, based on my critique of the black Electoral Success theory, I put forth suggestions for a different approach to voting rights reform. Relying on what I tentatively call "proportionate interest representation"9 for self-identified communities of interest, I propose to reconsider the ways in which representatives are elected and the rules under which legislative decisions are made.

  • the triumph of tokenism the voting rights act and the theory of black Electoral Success
    Michigan Law Review, 1991
    Co-Authors: Lani Guinier
    Abstract:

    A. The Civil Rights Movement's Theory of Political Participation 1081 1. Political Participation: Mobilizing the Black Com m unity 1084 2. Political Participation: Promoting a Social and Economic Agenda ......... 1086 3. Political Participation: Electing Responsive Offi cials 1089 B. The Evolution of a Legal Strategy of Political Empowerment 1091 II. THE THEORY OF BLACK Electoral Success 1101

Jason Matthew Smith - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.

Tamir Sheafer - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.

  • Charismatic Communication Skill, Media Legitimacy, and Electoral Success
    Journal of Political Marketing, 2008
    Co-Authors: Tamir Sheafer
    Abstract:

    ABSTRACT There is growing interest in how much a political candidate's media and political skills, sometimes referred to as “charisma,” are critical to their Electoral Success and political survival. According to one hypothesis, the effects of media skills might be so strong that actors who do not possess media skills quickly vanish from the political arena. However, while many believe that media skills are an important aspect of being elected, few have actually tried to measure their effects. Part of the reluctance, no doubt, stems from methodological difficulties in measuring them. In this study, I look more directly at the media and political skills that are likely to play an important role in Electoral competition and suggest a new methodology for measuring such skills. Findings are presented that show that media and political skills, as well as media coverage, can have an important impact on long-term Electoral Success of Israeli members of the Knesset.

  • Media-political skills, Candidate selection methods and Electoral Success
    The Journal of Legislative Studies, 2006
    Co-Authors: Tamir Sheafer, Shaul Tzionit
    Abstract:

    The analyses concentrate on the influences of the media and political skills of political actors on their Electoral Success. Many believe that demonstrating media skills is crucial for Electoral Success because it helps political actors to persuade media consumers to vote for them; but in some candidate selection methods, such as when a single leader selects the candidates, the media might not be an important factor. Therefore, the analyses take into account the interaction of media-political skills of political actors with candidate selection methods. This raises the question whether the democratisation of selection methods, now occurring in many countries, is making media-political skills more important. Multiple regression analyses show that media-political skills have a strong impact on the Electoral Success of 81 Israeli Members of the Knesset. They reveal a clear interaction with selection methods, and show that media-political skills have a greater impact in the more democratic methods of selection...