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Nauro F Campos - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.

  • the effect on foreign direct investment of Membership in the EUropean union
    Journal of Common Market Studies, 2021
    Co-Authors: Randolph Luca Bruno, Nauro F Campos, Saul Estrin
    Abstract:

    This article explores the impact of EU Membership on foreign direct investment (FDI). It analyses empirically how the effects of such deep integration differ from other forms and investigates what drives these effects. Using a structural gravity framework on annual bilateral FDI data for almost every country in the world from 1985 to 2018, we find EU Membership leads to about 60 per cent higher FDI investment into the host economy from outside the EU, and around 50 per cent higher intra‐EU FDI. Moreover, we find that the effect of EU Membership on FDI is larger than from Membership of the North American Free Trade Agreement, the EUropean Free Trade Association and the Southern Common Market, and that the single market is the cornerstone of this differential impact.

  • the effect on foreign direct investment of Membership in the EUropean union
    Social Science Research Network, 2020
    Co-Authors: Randolph Luca Bruno, Nauro F Campos, Saul Estrin
    Abstract:

    This paper explores the impact of EU Membership on foreign direct investment (FDI). It analyses empirically how the effects of such deep integration differ from other forms and investigates what drives these effects. Using a structural gravity framework on annual bilateral FDI data for almost every country in the world, over 1985-2018, we find EU Membership leads FDI into the host economy to be about 60% higher for investment from outside the EU, and around 50% higher for intra-EU FDI. Moreover, we find that the effect of EU Membership on FDI is larger than from Membership of NAFTA, EFTA, or MERCOSUR, and that the Single Market is the cornerstone of this differential impact.

  • economic integration foreign investment and international trade the effects of Membership of the EUropean union
    LSE Research Online Documents on Economics, 2017
    Co-Authors: Randolph Luca Bruno, Nauro F Campos, Saul Estrin, Meng Tian
    Abstract:

    This paper investigates the importance of economic integration in simultaneously fostering foreign direct investment (FDI) and international trade. These have rarely been analyzed jointly using contemporary econometric methods. We estimate the effect of EUropean Union (EU) Membership on FDI inflows and trade using annual bilateral data from 34 OECD countries over 1985–2013. We find that EU Membership increases FDI inflows by on average 28%. We jointly estimate the impact of EU Membership on trade and FDI and find that they are substantial, with the one on trade larger than the one on FDI, in the order of double

  • EU Membership or thatcher s structural reforms what drove the great british reversal
    Social Science Research Network, 2017
    Co-Authors: Nauro F Campos, Fabrizio Coricelli
    Abstract:

    This paper presents a dissonant view on post-war British economic performance. A defining feature is the decline of the UK relative to the six founding members of the EUropean Union after 1945. However, this relative decline stopped. The conventional view is that a turning point occurs in the mid-1980s when Mrs Thatcher implements far-reaching structural reforms. This paper asks whether econometric evidence supports this conventional view and finds it does not. We then examine an alternative hypothesis: this turning point occurs around 1970 when the UK joined the EUropean Community. We find strong econometric support for this view. The intuition we offer is that EU Membership signalled the prominence of business groups that chose to compete at the high-tech end of the common EUropean market against those business groups that preferred comparative advantage driven Commonwealth markets (mostly former colonies). Those pro-EUrope business groups later become the constituency that provides support for Mrs Thatcher's reforms. Without this vital support, we argue, Mrs Thatcher's structural reforms would not have been nearly as effective, if proposed and implemented at all.

  • EU Membership mrs thatcher s reforms and britain s economic decline
    PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint), 2017
    Co-Authors: Nauro F Campos, Fabrizio Coricelli
    Abstract:

    This paper presents a dissonant view on post-war British economic performance. A defining feature is the decline of the UK relative to the six founding members of the EUropean Union after 1945. However, this relative decline stopped. The conventional view is that a turning point occurs in the mid-1980s when Mrs Thatcher implements far-reaching structural reforms. This paper asks whether econometric evidence supports this conventional view and finds it does not. We then examine an alternative hypothesis: this turning point occurs around 1970 when the UK joined the EUropean Community. We find strong econometric support for this view. The intuition we offer is that EU Membership signalled the prominence of business groups that chose to compete at the high-tech end of the common EUropean market against those business groups that preferred comparative advantage-driven Commonwealth markets (mostly former colonies). Those pro-EUrope business groups later become the constituency that provides support for Mrs Thatcher's reforms. Without this vital support, we argue Mrs Thatcher's structural reforms would not have been nearly as effective, if proposed and implemented at all.

Mara Vidali - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.

  • EU accession and economic freedom an empirical analysis of the effect of EU Membership and its antecedents on economic freedom
    Social Science Research Network, 2020
    Co-Authors: Constantinos Saravakos, Emmanuel Schizas, Mara Vidali
    Abstract:

    The access to EUropean Union and the status of EU Membership require significant reforms in order for a country to align with the Union’s overall institutional framework and values. However, the recent financial and sovereign debt crises have called into question the EUropean Union’s commitment to economic freedom. This political debate about the role of EUropean Union must be informed by facts. In light of this, the study seeks to examine whether a trajectory towards EU Membership is a driver for more economic freedom. Empirical evidence shows of a link between the EU accession process and the aim of promoting economic freedom. The analysis finds that the process of convergence is associated with more economic freedom and that this effect is deduced from a comparison with not only poorer and less developed countries in the EU neighbourhoods, but also with wealthy non-EU OECD countries. The main channel of this relationship is free trade, which benefits both accruing to accession candidates and full members. Moreover, the study highlights that inflation and monetary stability along with the opening of both domestic and international markets and regulatory harmonization are associated with the policies that EUropean governments implemented to converge towards the EUro currency. The analysis of the index of the economic freedom of the Italian regions, (ILERI) a measurement developed by the Centro Einaudi, demonstrates large and also widening divergence between territorial areas of the country. Some of them are historically known, while new ones developed from 2000 onwards, in spite of the extensive cohesion policies deployed in this period..

Joshua A Tucker - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.

  • the dynamics of support the winners losers gap in attitudes toward EU Membership in post communist countries
    European Political Science Review, 2010
    Co-Authors: Alexander Herzog, Joshua A Tucker
    Abstract:

    We examine the question of whether economic winners were more likely to support EUropean Union (EU) Membership than economic losers in post-communist countries. We include in our analysis every cross-national survey of post-communist countries with both a measure of individual attitudes toward EU Membership as well as an appropriate measure of individual self-assessment of economic progress. The resultant data set contains data from 67 different surveys over a 12-year period (1991–2003) in all 10 post-communist countries that have joined the EU to date. Using a variety of analytical techniques, ranging from simple cross-tables and multivariate analysis of the individual surveys to multilevel models of a fully pooled data set, we show that the pattern of economic winners being more likely to support EU Membership for their country is remarkably consistent across both time and space. At the same time, the dynamic component of the analysis allows us to show that the size of this gap varies over time, with winners being even more likely to support EU Membership than losers when EU Membership is a more realistic possibility.

  • pocketbooks politics and parties the 2003 polish referendum on EU Membership
    Electoral Studies, 2005
    Co-Authors: Radoslaw Markowski, Joshua A Tucker
    Abstract:

    Abstract We analyze the results of Poland's historic June, 2003 referendum on whether or not to join the EUropean Union. We find that demographic factors did not play a particularly large role in determining vote choice in the referendum. As alternatives, we propose economic, political, and party based hypotheses, and find empirical support for all three. We also examine the decision to participate in the referendum in an effort to assess the effect of the strategic dilemma posed by a referendum with a minimum turnout threshold for opponents of the referendum. Analysis is conducted on both the aggregate and individual level, utilizing an original county-level dataset and a national public opinion survey.

  • transitional winners and losers attitudes toward EU Membership in post communist countries
    American Journal of Political Science, 2002
    Co-Authors: Joshua A Tucker, Alexander C Pacek, Adam J Berinsky
    Abstract:

    Joshua A. Tucker is Assistant Professor of Politics and International Affairs, PrincetonUniversity, 322 Bendheim Hall, Princeton, NJ 08544 (jtucker@princeton.edu).Alexander C. Pacek is Associate Professor of Political Science, Texas A&M University,College Station, Texas 77843 (e339ap@polisci.tamu.edu). Adam J. Berinsky is AssistantProfessor of Politics, Princeton University, 41 Corwin Hall, Princeton, NJ 08544(berinsky@princeton.edu).We thank Guy Whitten, Randy Stevenson, Christopher Anderson, Jan Leighley, andBenjamin Radcliff for useful comments and support and Sara De Master and JamesMcGhee for research assistance. We also wish to thank the anonymous reviewers fortheir helpful comments and suggestions. All data analysis was conducted using Stata 6.0and Clarify 1.3. A previous version of this article was presented at the 2001 Annual Con-ference of the Midwest Political Science Association. Authors’ names are listed in reversealphabetical order.

Aykut Kibritcioglu - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.

  • emu EUro and EU Membership an evaluation from the turkish macroeconomic perspective
    Research Papers in Economics, 2003
    Co-Authors: Aykut Kibritcioglu
    Abstract:

    As a result of the macroeconomic convergence process in the light of the 1991 Maastricht Treaty, the monetary union between most of the EU countries started on January 1, 1999. Meanwhile, ten formerly eastern block countries and the Southern Section of Cyprus are preparing their economy for a full-Membership to the EU while Turkey, as an associate- member of the Union since 1963 and as a part of customs union between Turkey and the EU since 1996, seems to be excluded from the next EU enlargement process. Therefore, this paper mainly intends to discuss the following two interrelated questions: (1) How far is Turkey different than the 11 Membership candidate countries and the EU countries in terms of the ten selected macroeconomic indicators (1973-1997)? (2) To what extent will the introduction of the EUro affect the balance-of-payments accounts and foreign exchange rates in Turkey? (Version: May 2000)

  • emu EUro and EU Membership an evaluation from the turkish macroeconomic perspective
    Social Science Research Network, 1998
    Co-Authors: Aykut Kibritcioglu
    Abstract:

    The monetary union between most of the EU countries started on January 1, 1999 as a result of a macroeconomic convergence process in the light of the Maastricht Treaty of 1991. Meanwhile, ten formerly eastern block countries and the Southern Section of Cyprus are preparing their economy for a full-Membership to the EU while Turkey, as an associate-member of the Union since 1963 and as a part of customs union between Turkey and the EU since 1996, seems to be excluded from the next EU enlargement process. This paper has mainly two interrelated discussion topics. First, Turkey, 11 Membership candidate countries, 15 EU countries and selected four reference countries (US, Japan, South Korea and PR China) are compared in terms of the ten selected macroeconomic indicators for the period of 1993-1997 where relevant data are available. By doing that, it is purposed to answer the question whether Turkey or Membership candidates have more macroeconomic similarity with the EU countries only in terms of the considered indicators. At the same time, it has been discussed whether Turkey's macroeconomic framework is worse than that of the 11 Membership candidates. If the Turkish fundamental indicators are really worse than the other countries', from the point of view of the EU member countries, this can be a good reason for exclusion from the next enlargement process. Second, after both presenting an overview of the main international transmission channels for the effects of the EUro and summarizing the official economic preparations in the country, the possible effects of the creation of the EUro on the balance-of-payments and foreign exchange rates in Turkey are discussed.

Jan Fidrmuc - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.

  • who favors enlargement determinants of support for EU Membership in the candidate countries referenda
    European Journal of Political Economy, 2006
    Co-Authors: Orla Doyle, Jan Fidrmuc
    Abstract:

    We analyze support for EU Membership as expressed in voting patterns in the candidate countries’ referenda on EU Membership, using regional referendum results and individual survey data on voting intentions. We find that favorable individual and regional characteristics are positively correlated with support for accession and voter participation. In contrast, those who should benefit from future EU transfers are less likely to vote and/or support EU Membership. We argue that voters in the candidate countries assign greater weight on future benefits from liberalization and integration than on potential gains through redistribution.

  • who is in favor of enlargement determinants of support for EU Membership in the candidate countries referenda
    Social Science Research Network, 2004
    Co-Authors: Jan Fidrmuc, Orla Doyle
    Abstract:

    We analyze support for EU Membership as expressed in voting patterns in the candidate countries' referenda on EU Membership, using regional referendum results and individual survey data on voting intentions. We find that favorable individual and regional characteristics are positively correlated with support for accession and voter participation. In contrast, those who should benefit from future EU transfers are less likely to vote and/or support EU Membership. We argue that voters in the candidate countries assign greater weight on future benefits from liberalization and integration than on potential gains through redistribution.