The Experts below are selected from a list of 306 Experts worldwide ranked by ideXlab platform
Dan Ariely - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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When Retailing and Las Vegas Meet: Probabilistic Free Price Promotions
Management Science, 2017Co-Authors: Nina Mazar, Kristina Shampanier, Dan ArielyAbstract:A number of retailers offer gambling- or lottery-type price promotions with a chance to receive one’s entire purchase for free. Although these retailers seem to share the intuition that probabilistic free price promotions are attractive to consumers, it is unclear how they compare to traditional sure price promotions of equal Expected Monetary Value. We compared these two risky and sure price promotions for planned purchases across six experiments in the field and in the laboratory. Together, we found that consumers are not only more likely to purchase a product promoted with a probabilistic free discount over the same product promoted with a sure discount but that they are also likely to purchase more of it. This preference seems to be primarily due to a diminishing sensitivity to the prices. In addition, we find that the zero price effect, transaction cost, and novelty considerations are likely not implicated. This paper was accepted by Yuval Rottenstreich, judgment and decision making.
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When Retailing and Las Vegas Meet: Probabilistic Free Price Promotions
2015Co-Authors: Nina Mazar, Kristina Shampanier, Dan ArielyAbstract:A number of retailers offer gambling or lottery type of price promotions with a chance to receive one’s entire purchase for free. While these retailers seem to share the intuition that probabilistic free price promotions are attractive to consumers, it is unclear how they compare to traditional sure price promotions of equal Expected Monetary Value. We compared these two risky and sure price promotions for planned purchases across six experiments in the field and in the lab. Together, we found that consumers are not only more likely to purchase a product promoted with a probabilistic free discount over the same product promoted with a sure discount but that they are also likely to purchase more of it. This preference seems to be primarily due to a diminishing sensitivity to the prices. In addition, we find that the zero price effect, transaction cost, and novelty considerations are likely not implicated.
Andrew Metcalfe - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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First-passage time criteria for the operation of reservoirs
Journal of Hydrology, 2014Co-Authors: A J Fisher, Andrew Metcalfe, David Green, Kunle AkandeAbstract:Summary A multi-objective optimisation for reservoir operation based on Expected Monetary Value and Expected first passage-time criterion is proposed. The computations are facilitated by the algorithms of matrix analytic methods. The formal structure, classifying states as levels and phases within levels, and associated algorithms of matrix analytic methods are introduced in the context of multi-reservoir systems. The algorithms underpin the feasibility of the computations for large systems and enable the calculation of the full distribution of first passage time. A new algorithm for computing results for a seasonal model, which reduces computing time by an order of magnitude for monthly time steps is presented. The methods are illustrated for a two reservoir system, with an option of pumping additional water from a transfer scheme, in the East of England. The Pareto front of Pareto optimal policies is shown.
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Modelling Water Blending—Sensitivity of Optimal Policies
Environmental Modeling & Assessment, 2008Co-Authors: R. B. Webby, David Green, Andrew MetcalfeAbstract:Water blending is modelled as a combination of a linear program and a stochastic dynamic program. Optimal policies are found for linear and integer-linear formulations using both an Expected Monetary Value and conditional Value-at-risk criterion. The sensitivity of these solutions to the discretisation over volume and over time is investigated.
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Modelling water blending - sensitivity of optimal policies.
Environmental Modeling & Assessment, 2008Co-Authors: R. B. Webby, David Green, Andrew MetcalfeAbstract:Water blending is modelled as a combination of a linear program and a stochastic dynamic program. Optimal policies are found for linear and integer-linear formulations using both an Expected Monetary Value and conditional Value-at-risk criterion. The sensitivity of these solutions to the discretisation over volume and over time is investigated.
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stochastic dynamic programming sdp with a conditional Value at risk cvar criterion for management of storm water
Journal of Hydrology, 2008Co-Authors: Julia Piantadosi, Andrew Metcalfe, Phil HowlettAbstract:We present a new approach to stochastic dynamic programming (SDP) to determine a policy for management of urban storm-water that minimises conditional Value-at-risk (CVaR). Storm-water flows into a large capture dam and is subsequently pumped to a holding dam. Water is then supplied directly to users or stored in an underground aquifer. We assume random inflow and constant demand. SDP is used to find a pumping policy that minimises CVaR, with a penalty for increased risk of environmental damage, and a pumping policy that maximises Expected Monetary Value (EMV). We use both Value iteration and policy improvement to show that the optimal policy under CVaR differs from the optimal policy under EMV.
Nina Mazar - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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When Retailing and Las Vegas Meet: Probabilistic Free Price Promotions
Management Science, 2017Co-Authors: Nina Mazar, Kristina Shampanier, Dan ArielyAbstract:A number of retailers offer gambling- or lottery-type price promotions with a chance to receive one’s entire purchase for free. Although these retailers seem to share the intuition that probabilistic free price promotions are attractive to consumers, it is unclear how they compare to traditional sure price promotions of equal Expected Monetary Value. We compared these two risky and sure price promotions for planned purchases across six experiments in the field and in the laboratory. Together, we found that consumers are not only more likely to purchase a product promoted with a probabilistic free discount over the same product promoted with a sure discount but that they are also likely to purchase more of it. This preference seems to be primarily due to a diminishing sensitivity to the prices. In addition, we find that the zero price effect, transaction cost, and novelty considerations are likely not implicated. This paper was accepted by Yuval Rottenstreich, judgment and decision making.
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When Retailing and Las Vegas Meet: Probabilistic Free Price Promotions
2015Co-Authors: Nina Mazar, Kristina Shampanier, Dan ArielyAbstract:A number of retailers offer gambling or lottery type of price promotions with a chance to receive one’s entire purchase for free. While these retailers seem to share the intuition that probabilistic free price promotions are attractive to consumers, it is unclear how they compare to traditional sure price promotions of equal Expected Monetary Value. We compared these two risky and sure price promotions for planned purchases across six experiments in the field and in the lab. Together, we found that consumers are not only more likely to purchase a product promoted with a probabilistic free discount over the same product promoted with a sure discount but that they are also likely to purchase more of it. This preference seems to be primarily due to a diminishing sensitivity to the prices. In addition, we find that the zero price effect, transaction cost, and novelty considerations are likely not implicated.
Fei-chen Hsu - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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Analysis of Individual Risk Attitude for Risk Management Based on Cumulative Prospect Theory
Intelligent Data Analysis, 2009Co-Authors: Fei-chen Hsu, Hsiao-fan WangAbstract:In this chapter, we used Cumulative Prospect Theory to propose an individual risk management process (IRM) including a risk analysis stage and a risk response stage. According to an individual’s preferential structure, an individual’s risk level for the confronted risk can be identified from risk analysis. And based on a response evaluation model, the appropriate response strategy is assessed at the risk response stage. The applicability of the proposed model is evaluated by an A-C court case. The results have shown that the proposed method is able to provide more useful and pertinent information than the traditional method of decision tree by using the Expected Monetary Value (EMV).
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An integrated operation module for individual risk management
European Journal of Operational Research, 2009Co-Authors: Hsiao-fan Wang, Fei-chen HsuAbstract:Abstract In this study, we used the cumulative prospect theory to propose the individual risk management process (IRM) which includes risk analysis and risk response stages. According to an individual’s preferential structure, the process has been developed into an operational module which includes two sub-modules. From this, the individual’s risk level for the confronted risk can be identified from the risk analysis, while the response strategies can be assessed at the risk response stage. Therefore, optimal response strategies can be recommended based on individual risk tolerance levels. The applicability of the proposed module is evaluated using an A–C court case. The results show that the proposed method can provide more useful and pertinent information than the traditional method of decision tree by using the Expected Monetary Value (EMV).
Pandurang Shanakar Patil - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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Application of Risk analysis and Allocation model on Public-Private Partnership Power transmission line Projects
International Journal of Critical Infrastructures, 2020Co-Authors: Ganesh Sadashiv Kate, Pandurang Shanakar PatilAbstract:The aim of this paper is to apply risk analysis and allocation model on a particular public-private partnership (PPP) power transmission line project in India, so as to asses risks in various phases of PPP power transmission projects. After risk assessment risk allocation is done so that the concerned stakeholders can take migratory action in similar future projects. A case study of the Bongaigaon-Siliguri power transmission line project is studied. The Expected Monetary Value method is used for risk analysis. It is found that the major and high-risk level risk contribution is high. Then risk allocation is done from this it is found that in execution phase risk is more as compared to other phases of the project. In stakeholder wise risk allocation it is found that the project company is taking the maximum risk, which is highest as compared to other stakeholders involved in the PPP power transmission line project.
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Risk analysis and allocation in public-private partnership power transmission line projects
International Journal of Critical Infrastructures, 2020Co-Authors: Ganesh Sadashiv Kate, Pandurang Shanakar PatilAbstract:The aim of this paper is risk analysis for the delivery of public-private partnership (PPP) power transmission line projects in India and to address risk analysis and their proper risk allocation between the different stakeholders involved. An empirical questionnaire survey was designed. A total of 45 valid responses were obtained for data analysis. The Expected Monetary Value method (EVM) is employed for risk analysis and allocation. It was found that one risk was high risk, 65 were moderate, 35 were major, nine were minor risks and two were low risk. Risk allocation was done both phase and stakeholder wise. A key finding from this research is the execution phase of the power transmission line project involves huge risk, i.e., 64% and the project company takes a maximum of 53%. Hence, project company should focus more on critical risk factors of execution phase.
