The Experts below are selected from a list of 360 Experts worldwide ranked by ideXlab platform
Ralf Weisse - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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Exploring high-end scenarios for local sea level rise to develop Flood Protection strategies for a low-lying delta-the Netherlands as an example
Climatic Change, 2011Co-Authors: Caroline A. Katsman, H. W. van den Brink, J Lowe, Roderik S W Van De Wal, Wilco Hazeleger, Andreas Sterl, Michael Oppenheimer, Dick Kroon, Pier Vellinga, J. J. Beersma, Hans-peter Plag, L. L. A. Vermeersen, J Kwadijk, Jessica A Church, R. E. Kopp, Henrik Von Storch, John Ridley, R. Lammersen, David G Vaughan, Ralf WeisseAbstract:Sea level rise, especially combined with possible changes in storm surges and increased river discharge resulting from climate change, poses a major threat in low-lying river deltas. In this study we focus on a specific example of such a delta: the Netherlands. To evaluate whether the country’s Flood Protection strategy is capable of coping with future climate conditions, an assessment of low-probability/high-impact scenarios is conducted, focusing mainly on sea level rise. We develop a plausible high-end scenario of 0.55 to 1.15 m global mean sea level rise, and 0.40 to 1.05 m rise on the coast of the Netherlands by 2100 (excluding land subsidence), and more than three times these local values by 2200. Together with projections for changes in storm surge height and peak river discharge, these scenarios depict a complex, enhanced Flood risk for the Dutch delta.
Pier Vellinga - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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Ranking coastal Flood Protection designs from engineered to nature-based
Ecological Engineering, 2016Co-Authors: A. van der Nat, Pier Vellinga, Rik Leemans, Erik Van SlobbeAbstract:Compared to traditional hard engineering, nature-based Flood Protection can be more cost effective, use up less raw materials, increase system adaptability and present opportunities to improve ecosystem functioning. However, high Flood safety standards cause the need to combine nature-based structures with traditional civil engineered structures. This increases complexity assessing when and how ecological and engineering objectives of such Flood Protection systems are achieved. This study classifies the degree to which coastal designs are nature based using criteria for ecosystem-based management (EBM). For the engineering criterion the distinction between main and supporting structures is introduced. To evaluate the ecological criterion five design concepts have been introduced, ranging from completely engineered to completely nature-based. The method results in an EBM-ranking of the coast, showing where a particular Flood Protection design stands on the range between completely engineered (low EBM-rank) and nature-based (high EBM-rank). It thus facilitates comparison of different Flood Protection systems. The method was the applied on the North-Sea coast of Belgium, the Netherlands, and Germany. The results show that combinations of civil-engineered and nature-based structures are widely applied. However, due to the overall low contribution to Flood Protection by the nature-based structures, about 85% of the coast is dominated by engineered structures. The majority of these stretches is located in relatively sheltered areas. Improving the Flood Protection capacity of the nature based structures in these areas is hard to achieve. Therefore, application of more nature-based design concepts on the main structures is the most promising way to improve the EBM-rank of many Flood Protection systems.
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Exploring high-end scenarios for local sea level rise to develop Flood Protection strategies for a low-lying delta-the Netherlands as an example
Climatic Change, 2011Co-Authors: Caroline A. Katsman, H. W. van den Brink, J Lowe, Roderik S W Van De Wal, Wilco Hazeleger, Andreas Sterl, Michael Oppenheimer, Dick Kroon, Pier Vellinga, J. J. Beersma, Hans-peter Plag, L. L. A. Vermeersen, J Kwadijk, Jessica A Church, R. E. Kopp, Henrik Von Storch, John Ridley, R. Lammersen, David G Vaughan, Ralf WeisseAbstract:Sea level rise, especially combined with possible changes in storm surges and increased river discharge resulting from climate change, poses a major threat in low-lying river deltas. In this study we focus on a specific example of such a delta: the Netherlands. To evaluate whether the country’s Flood Protection strategy is capable of coping with future climate conditions, an assessment of low-probability/high-impact scenarios is conducted, focusing mainly on sea level rise. We develop a plausible high-end scenario of 0.55 to 1.15 m global mean sea level rise, and 0.40 to 1.05 m rise on the coast of the Netherlands by 2100 (excluding land subsidence), and more than three times these local values by 2200. Together with projections for changes in storm surge height and peak river discharge, these scenarios depict a complex, enhanced Flood risk for the Dutch delta.
Caroline A. Katsman - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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Exploring high-end scenarios for local sea level rise to develop Flood Protection strategies for a low-lying delta-the Netherlands as an example
Climatic Change, 2011Co-Authors: Caroline A. Katsman, H. W. van den Brink, J Lowe, Roderik S W Van De Wal, Wilco Hazeleger, Andreas Sterl, Michael Oppenheimer, Dick Kroon, Pier Vellinga, J. J. Beersma, Hans-peter Plag, L. L. A. Vermeersen, J Kwadijk, Jessica A Church, R. E. Kopp, Henrik Von Storch, John Ridley, R. Lammersen, David G Vaughan, Ralf WeisseAbstract:Sea level rise, especially combined with possible changes in storm surges and increased river discharge resulting from climate change, poses a major threat in low-lying river deltas. In this study we focus on a specific example of such a delta: the Netherlands. To evaluate whether the country’s Flood Protection strategy is capable of coping with future climate conditions, an assessment of low-probability/high-impact scenarios is conducted, focusing mainly on sea level rise. We develop a plausible high-end scenario of 0.55 to 1.15 m global mean sea level rise, and 0.40 to 1.05 m rise on the coast of the Netherlands by 2100 (excluding land subsidence), and more than three times these local values by 2200. Together with projections for changes in storm surge height and peak river discharge, these scenarios depict a complex, enhanced Flood risk for the Dutch delta.
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Exploring high-end climate change scenarios for Flood Protection of the Netherlands
IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, 2009Co-Authors: Caroline A. Katsman, Wilco Hazeleger, Andreas Sterl, J. J. BeersmaAbstract:This international scientific assessment has been carried out at the request of the Dutch Delta Committee. The "Deltacommissie" requested that the assessment explore the high-end climate change scenarios for Flood Protection of the Netherlands. It is a state-of–the art scientific assessment of the upper bound values and longer term projections (for sea level rise up to 2200) of climate induced sea level rise, changing storm surge conditions and peak discharge of river Rhine. It comprises a review of recent studies, model projections and expert opinions of more than 20 leading climate scientists from different countries around the North Sea, Australia and the USA
W Wouter J Botzen - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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the safe development paradox an agent based model for Flood risk under climate change in the european union
Global Environmental Change-human and Policy Dimensions, 2020Co-Authors: Toon Haer, W Wouter J Botzen, Trond Husby, J C J H AertsAbstract:With increasing Flood risk due to climate change and socioeconomic trends, governments are under pressure to continue implementing Flood Protection measures, such as dikes, to reduce Flood risk. However, research suggests that a sole focus on government-funded Flood Protection leads to an adverse increase in exposure as people and economic activities tend to concentrate in protected areas. Moreover, governmental Flood Protection can reduce the incentive for autonomous adaptation by local households, which paradoxically results in more severe consequences if an extreme Flood event occurs. This phenomenon is often referred to as the ‘safe development paradox’ or ‘levee effect’ and is generally not accounted for in existing Flood risk models used to assess developments in future Flood risk under climate change. In this study we assess the impact of extreme Flood events for the European Union using a large-scale agent-based model (ABM). We quantify how the safe development paradox affects (1) population growth and the increase in exposed property values, (2) the reduction in investments to Flood-proof buildings as public Protection increases, and (3) the increase in potential damage should a Flood occur. For this analysis, we apply an ABM that integrates the dynamic behaviour of governments and residents into a large-scale Flood risk assessment framework, in which we include estimates of changing population growth. We find that the impact of extreme Flood events increases considerably when governments provide high Protection levels, especially in large metropolitan areas. Moreover, we demonstrate how policy that stimulates the Flood-proofing of buildings can largely counteract the effects of the safe development paradox.
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economic evaluation of climate risk adaptation strategies cost benefit analysis of Flood Protection in tabasco mexico
Atmosfera, 2017Co-Authors: Toon Haer, W Wouter J Botzen, Jorge Zavalahidalgo, Carline Cusell, Philip J WardAbstract:Economic losses as a result of natural hazards have been rising over the past few decades due to socio-economic development and perhaps climate change. This upwards trend is projected to continue, highlighting the need for adequate adaptation strategies. This raises the question of how to determine which adaptation strategies are preferred to cope with uncertain climate change impacts. This study shows how a multi-disciplinary cascade of hazard modelling, risk modelling, and a cost-benefit analysis can be applied to provide a first indicator of economically efficient adaptation strategies. We apply this approach to an analysis of Flood risk and the desirability of Flood Protection in the state of Tabasco in Mexico, which faces severe Flooding on an almost yearly basis. The results show that expected annual damage caused by coastal Flooding is expected to increase from 0.53 billion USD today up to 4.12 billion USD in 2080 due to socio-economic development and climate change. For river Floods, expected annual damages are estimated to increase from 1.79 billion USD up to 10.6 billion USD in 2080 if no adaptation measures are taken. Based on the estimated risk and cost-benefit analysis of installing Flood Protection infrastructure, we determined the economically optimal Protection standards for both river and coastal Floods as at least 100 years, if we take into account climate change. Our main conclusions are robust to key uncertainties about climate change impacts on Flood risks, indirect damage caused by Floods, the width of the protected Floodplains, and the adopted social discount rate. We discuss how our multi-disciplinary approach can assist policy-makers in decisions about Flood risk management, and how future research can extend our method to more refined local analyses which are needed to guide local adaptation planning.
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increasing stress on disaster risk finance due to large Floods
Nature Climate Change, 2014Co-Authors: Brenden Jongman, W Wouter J Botzen, J C J H Aerts, Stefan Hochrainerstigler, Luc Feyen, Reinhard Mechler, Laurens M Bouwer, Georg Ch Pflug, Rodrigo Rojas, Philip J WardAbstract:An assessment of economic Flood risk trends across Europe reveals high current and future stress on risk financing schemes. The magnitude and distribution of losses can be contained by investing in Flood Protection, increasing insurance coverage or by expanding public compensation funds. However, these climate change adaptation instruments have vastly different efficiency, equity and acceptability implications. Moreover, the spatial variation in disaster risk can necessitate cross-subsidies between individual countries in the European Union.
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dealing with uncertainty in Flood management through diversification
Ecology and Society, 2008Co-Authors: J C J H Aerts, W Wouter J Botzen, Anne Van Der Veen, Joerg Krywkow, S E WernersAbstract:This paper shows, through a numerical example, how to develop portfolios of Flood management activities that generate the highest return under an acceptable risk for an area in the central part of the Netherlands. The paper shows a method based on Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) that contributes to developing Flood management strategies. MPT aims at finding sets of investments that diversify risks thereby reducing the overall risk of the total portfolio of investments. This paper shows that through systematically combining four different Flood Protection measures in portfolios containing three or four measures; risk is reduced compared with portfolios that only contain one or two measures. Adding partly uncorrelated measures to the portfolio diversifies risk. We demonstrate how MPT encourages a systematic discussion of the relationship between the return and risk of individual Flood mitigation activities and the return and risk of complete portfolios. It is also shown how important it is to understand the correlation of the returns of various Flood management activities. The MPT approach, therefore, fits well with the notion of adaptive water management, which perceives the future as inherently uncertain. Through applying MPT on Flood Protection strategies current vulnerability will be reduced by diversifying risk.
J. J. Beersma - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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Exploring high-end scenarios for local sea level rise to develop Flood Protection strategies for a low-lying delta-the Netherlands as an example
Climatic Change, 2011Co-Authors: Caroline A. Katsman, H. W. van den Brink, J Lowe, Roderik S W Van De Wal, Wilco Hazeleger, Andreas Sterl, Michael Oppenheimer, Dick Kroon, Pier Vellinga, J. J. Beersma, Hans-peter Plag, L. L. A. Vermeersen, J Kwadijk, Jessica A Church, R. E. Kopp, Henrik Von Storch, John Ridley, R. Lammersen, David G Vaughan, Ralf WeisseAbstract:Sea level rise, especially combined with possible changes in storm surges and increased river discharge resulting from climate change, poses a major threat in low-lying river deltas. In this study we focus on a specific example of such a delta: the Netherlands. To evaluate whether the country’s Flood Protection strategy is capable of coping with future climate conditions, an assessment of low-probability/high-impact scenarios is conducted, focusing mainly on sea level rise. We develop a plausible high-end scenario of 0.55 to 1.15 m global mean sea level rise, and 0.40 to 1.05 m rise on the coast of the Netherlands by 2100 (excluding land subsidence), and more than three times these local values by 2200. Together with projections for changes in storm surge height and peak river discharge, these scenarios depict a complex, enhanced Flood risk for the Dutch delta.
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Exploring high-end climate change scenarios for Flood Protection of the Netherlands
IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, 2009Co-Authors: Caroline A. Katsman, Wilco Hazeleger, Andreas Sterl, J. J. BeersmaAbstract:This international scientific assessment has been carried out at the request of the Dutch Delta Committee. The "Deltacommissie" requested that the assessment explore the high-end climate change scenarios for Flood Protection of the Netherlands. It is a state-of–the art scientific assessment of the upper bound values and longer term projections (for sea level rise up to 2200) of climate induced sea level rise, changing storm surge conditions and peak discharge of river Rhine. It comprises a review of recent studies, model projections and expert opinions of more than 20 leading climate scientists from different countries around the North Sea, Australia and the USA
