The Experts below are selected from a list of 360 Experts worldwide ranked by ideXlab platform
Jeffrey L. Beck - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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effects of common raven and coyote removal and temporal variation in climate on Greater sage grouse nesting success
Biological Conservation, 2016Co-Authors: Jonathan B Dinkins, Jeffrey L. Beck, Christopher P Kirol, Michael R Conover, Shandra Nicole FreyAbstract:Predator removal has been simultaneously proposed and criticized as a mitigation measure for low reproductive rates of prey species, including Greater Sage-Grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus; hereafter “Sage-Grouse”). Depredation of Sage-Grouse nests can limit their productivity. In Wyoming, lethal removal of common ravens (Corvus corax: hereafter “ravens”) and coyotes (Canis latrans) has been conducted by USDA/APHIS/Wildlife Services (WS) for the protection of livestock. During 2008–2011, we evaluated Sage-Grouse nest success in study sites (1) where WS initiated a raven removal program, (2) WS removed coyotes, and (3) WS did not manipulate ravens and/or coyotes. Precipitation and temperature were analyzed individually and as interactive effects with coyote removal numbers as sources of annual variation in nest success. Over the course of our study, raven densities decreased at study sites with WS raven removal, while Sage-Grouse nest success in those study sites was higher during years with reduced raven density. Temperature effects on nest success were dependent on timing with successful nests having cooler temperatures prior to the nesting season (conditions promoting water retention and grass growth) and warmer temperatures the week before nest fate (conducive to degradation of Sage-Grouse odorants used by mammalian predators). Lower nest success was associated with more lethally removed coyotes interacting with Greater precipitation suggesting mesopredator release. Raven removal may have a place in Sage-Grouse management as an interim mitigation measure when Sage-Grouse populations are subjected to high densities of ravens. However, long-term solutions are necessary, such as reducing supplemental food sources and perch structures used by ravens.
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identifying Greater sage grouse source and sink habitats for conservation planning in an energy development landscape
Ecological Applications, 2015Co-Authors: Christopher P Kirol, Jeffrey L. Beck, Matthew J. Holloran, Snehalata Huzurbazar, Scott N MillerAbstract:Conserving a declining species that is facing many threats, including overlap of its habitats with energy extraction activities, depends upon identifying and prioritizing the value of the habitats that remain. In addition, habitat quality is often compromised when source habitats are lost or fragmented due to anthropogenic development. Our objective was to build an ecological model to classify and map habitat quality in terms of source or sink dynamics for Greater Sage-Grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) in the Atlantic Rim Project Area (ARPA), a developing coalbed natural gas field in south-central Wyoming, USA. We used occurrence and survival modeling to evaluate relationships between environmental and anthropogenic variables at multiple spatial scales and for all female summer life stages, including nesting, brood-rearing, and non-brooding females. For each life stage, we created resource selection functions (RSFs). We weighted the RSFs and combined them to form a female summer occurrence map. We modeled survival also as a function of spatial variables for nest, brood, and adult female summer survival. Our survival-models were mapped as survival probability functions individually and then combined with fixed vital rates in a fitness metric model that, when mapped, predicted habitat productivity (productivity map). Our results demonstrate a suite of environmental and anthropogenic variables at multiple scales that were predictive of occurrence and survival. We created a source-sink map by overlaying our female summer occurrence map and productivity map to predict habitats contributing to population surpluses (source habitats) or deficits (sink habitat) and low-occurrence habitats on the landscape. The source-sink map predicted that of the Sage-Grouse habitat within the ARPA, 30% was primary source, 29% was secondary source, 4% was primary sink, 6% was secondary sink, and 31% was low occurrence. Our results provide evidence that energy development and avoidance of energy infrastructure were probably reducing the amount of source habitat within the ARPA landscape. Our source-sink map provides managers with a means of prioritizing habitats for conservation planning based on source and sink dynamics. The spatial identification of high value (i.e., primary source) as well as suboptimal (i.e., primary sink) habitats allows for informed energy development to minimize effects on local wildlife populations.
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habitat prioritization across large landscapes multiple seasons and novel areas an example using Greater sage grouse in wyoming
Wildlife Monographs, 2014Co-Authors: Bradley C Fedy, Cameron L. Aldridge, Jeffrey L. Beck, Gregory D Johnson, Matthew J. Holloran, Kevin E Doherty, Michael S Odonnell, Bryan Bedrosian, David L Gummer, Nicholas W KaczorAbstract:Animal habitat selection is an important and expansive area of research in ecology. In particular, the study of habitat selection is critical in habitat prioritization efforts for species of conservation concern. Landscape planning for species is happening at ever-increasing extents because of the appreciation for the role of landscape-scale patterns in species persistence coupled to improved datasets for species and habitats, and the expanding and intensifying footprint of human land uses on the landscape. We present a large-scale collaborative effort to develop habitat selection models across large landscapes and multiple seasons for prioritizing habitat for a species of conservation concern. Greater Sage-Grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus, hereafter Sage-Grouse) occur in western semi- arid landscapes in North America. Range-wide population declines of this species have been documented, and it is currently considered as "warranted but precluded" from listing under the United States Endangered Species Act. Wyoming is predicted to remain a stronghold for Sage-Grouse populations and contains approximately 37% of remaining birds. We compiled location data from 14 unique radiotelemetry studies (data collected 1994-2010) and habitat data from high-quality, biologically relevant, geographic information system (GIS) layers across Wyoming. We developed habitat selection models for Greater Sage-Grouse across Wyoming for 3 distinct life stages: 1) nesting, 2) summer, and 3) winter. We developed patch and landscape models across 4 extents, producing statewide and regional (southwest, central, northeast) models for Wyoming. Habitat selection varied among regions and seasons, yet preferred habitat attributes generally matched the extensive literature on Sage-Grouse seasonal habitat requirements. Across seasons and regions, birds preferred areas with Greater percentage sagebrush cover and avoided paved roads, agriculture, and forested areas. Birds consistently preferred areas with higher precipitation in the summer and avoided rugged terrain in the winter. Selection for sagebrush cover varied regionally with stronger selection in the Northeast region, likely because of limited availability, whereas avoidance of paved roads was fairly consistent across regions. We chose resource selection function (RSF) thresholds for each model set (seasonalregional combination) that delineated important seasonal habitats for Sage-Grouse. Each model set showed good validation and discriminatory capabilities within study-site boundaries. We applied the nesting-season models to a novel area not included in model
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spatial heterogeneity in response of male Greater sage grouse lek attendance to energy development
PLOS ONE, 2014Co-Authors: Andrew J Gregory, Jeffrey L. BeckAbstract:Landscape modification due to rapidly expanding energy development, in particular oil and gas, in the westernUSA, have prompted concerns over how such developments may impact wildlife. One species of conservation concern across much of the Intermountain West is the Greater Sage-Grouse (Centrocercusurophasianus). Sage-Grouse have been petitioned for listing under provisions of the Endangered Species Act 7 times and the state of Wyoming alone represents 64% of the extant Sage-Grouse population in the eastern portion of their range. Consequently, the relationship between Sage-Grouse populations and oil and gas development in Wyoming is an important component to managing the long-term viability of this species. We used 814 leks from the Wyoming Game and Fish Department's lek survey database and well pad data from the Wyoming Oil and Gas Conservation Commission to evaluate changes in Sage-Grouse lek counts as a function of oil and gas development since 1991.From 1991-2011 we found that oil and gas well-pad density increased 3.6-fold across the state and was associated with a 24% decline in the number of male Sage-Grouse. Using a spatial and temporally structured analysis via Geographically Weighted Regression, we found a 1-to-4 year time lag between development density and lek decline. Sage-Grouse also responded to development densities at multiple spatial neighborhoods surrounding leks, including broad scales of 10 km. However, Sage-Grouse lek counts do not always decline as a result of oil and gas development. We found similar development densities resulting in different Sage-Grouse lek count responses, suggesting that development density alone is insufficient to predict the impacts that oil and gas development have on Sage-Grouse. Finally, our analysis suggests a maximum development density of 1 well-pad within 2 km of leks to avoid measurable impacts within 1 year, and <6 well-pads within 10 km of leks to avoid delayed impacts.
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short term impacts of wind energy development on Greater sage grouse fitness
Journal of Wildlife Management, 2014Co-Authors: Chad W. Lebeau, Jeffrey L. Beck, Gregory D Johnson, Matthew J. HolloranAbstract:Greater Sage-Grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) are experiencing population declines across much of their current range. Population declines are directly related to changes in Greater Sage-Grouse fitness parameters including nest and brood success, and female survival. Reduced fitness in Greater Sage-Grouse populations has been attributed to a decrease in habitat suitability caused by anthropogenic disturbance factors including energy extraction activities. The increased demand for renewable energy has raised concerns about the impacts of infrastructure associated with wind energy development on Greater Sage-Grouse populations. We hypothesized that Greater Sage-Grouse nest, brood, and adult survival would decrease with increasing proximity to wind energy infrastructure, particularly wind turbines. We monitored 95 nests, 31 broods, and identified 45 mortalities from 116 female Greater Sage-Grouse from 2009 to 2010 at awind energy facility in south-central Wyoming, USA. We used Cox proportional hazards regression to model nest survival and used the Andersen-Gill survival model to estimate female and brood survival relative to vegetation cover, topography, and distance to wind turbines and other anthropogenic features on the landscape. Results from our survival analysis indicated that the risk of a nest or brood failing decreased by 7.1% and 38.1%, respectively, with every 1.0km increase in distance from nearest turbine. We detected no variation in female survival relative to wind energy infrastructure. Decreased nest and brood survival was likely the result of increased predation, which may have been a product of anthropogenic development and habitat fragmentation. Future windenergydevelopmentsshouldconsider theincreasedriskofnest andbrood failure within habitats of close proximity to turbines. Identifying nesting and brood-rearing habitats within close proximity to proposed wind energydevelopments is critical when estimating potential impacts to overall population fitness. 2014 The Wildlife Society.
Terry A. Messmer - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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the effects of electric power lines on the breeding ecology of Greater sage grouse
PLOS ONE, 2019Co-Authors: Michel T Kohl, David K. Dahlgren, Michael R. Guttery, Terry A. Messmer, Benjamin A Crabb, Randy T Larsen, Shandra Nicole Frey, Sherry Liguori, Rick J BaxterAbstract:Anthropogenic infrastructure can negatively affect wildlife through direct mortality and/or displacement behaviors. Some tetranoids (grouse spp.) species are particularly vulnerable to tall anthropogenic structures because they evolved in ecosystems void of vertical structures. In western North America, electric power transmission and distribution lines (power lines) occur in sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) landscapes within the range of the Greater Sage-Grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus; Sage-Grouse). The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service recommended using buffer zones near leks to mitigate the potential impacts of power lines on Sage-Grouse. However, recommended buffer distances are inconsistent across state and federal agencies because data are lacking. To address this, we evaluated the effects of power lines on Sage-Grouse breeding ecology within Utah, portions of southeastern Idaho, and southwestern Wyoming from 1998–2013. Overall, power lines negatively affected lek trends up to a distance of 2.7 and 2.8 km, respectively. Power lines died not affect lek persistence. Female Sage-Grouse avoided transmission lines during the nesting and brooding seasons at distances up to 1.1 and 0.8 km, respectively. Nest and brood success were negatively affected by transmission lines up to distances of 2.6 and 1.1 km, respectively. Distribution lines did not appear to affect Sage-Grouse habitat selection or reproductive fitness. Our analyses demonstrated the value of sagebrush cover in mitigating potential power line impacts. Managers can minimize the effects of new transmission power lines by placing them in existing anthropogenic corridors and/or incorporating buffers at least 2.8 km from active leks. Given the uncertainty we observed in our analyses regarding Sage-Grouse response to distribution lines coupled with their role in providing electric power service directly to individual consumers, we recommend that buffers for these power lines be considered on a case-by-case basis. Micrositing to avoid important habitats and habitat reclamation may reduce the potential impacts of new power line construction.
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Effect of power lines on the Greater Sage-Grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus; Sage-Grouse) in Utah, portions of southeastern Idaho, and southwestern Wyoming, USA, 1998–2013.
2019Co-Authors: Michel T Kohl, David K. Dahlgren, Michael R. Guttery, Terry A. Messmer, Benjamin A Crabb, Randy T Larsen, Sherry Liguori, Shandra N. Frey, Rick J BaxterAbstract:Lines are population-averaged fitted values from the best-fit GLMM (S5 Appendix) describing the effects of transmission lines (A) and distribution lines (B) on Sage-Grouse nest success. The vertical dashed line identifies the response threshold at which Sage-Grouse response changes. The shaded areas highlight uncertainty (ΔAICc < 2) around the location of the response threshold. Circles represent a binning of data points that informed the model; sample sizes within each 1 km bin are identified in parentheses. For example, 15 nests were recorded between 0–1 km from a transmission line, of which 40% (n = 6) persisted.
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Effect of power lines on the Greater Sage-Grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus; Sage-Grouse) in Utah, portions of southeastern Idaho, and southwestern Wyoming, USA, 1998–2013.
2019Co-Authors: Michel T Kohl, David K. Dahlgren, Michael R. Guttery, Terry A. Messmer, Benjamin A Crabb, Randy T Larsen, Sherry Liguori, Shandra N. Frey, Rick J BaxterAbstract:Lines are population-averaged fitted values from the best-fit GLMM (S6 Appendix) describing the effects of transmission lines on Sage-Grouse brood success. Circles represent a binning of data points that informed the model; sample sizes within each 1 km bin are identified in parentheses. For example, 18 nests were recorded between 0–1 km from a transmission line, of which 11% (n = 2) persisted.
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evaluating vital rate contributions to Greater sage grouse population dynamics to inform conservation
Ecosphere, 2016Co-Authors: David K. Dahlgren, Michael R. Guttery, Terry A. Messmer, Danny Caudill, Robert Dwayne Elmore, Renee Chi, David N KoonsAbstract:Species conservation efforts often use short-term studies that fail to identify the vital rates that contribute most to population growth. Although the Greater Sage-Grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus; Sage-Grouse) is a candidate for protection under the U.S. Endangered Species Act, and is sometimes referred to as an umbrella species in the sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) biome of western North America, the failure of proposed management strategies to focus on key vital rates that may contribute most to achieving population stability remains problematic for sustainable conservation. To address this dilemma, we performed both prospective and retrospective perturbation analyses of a life cycle model based on a 12-yr study that encompassed nearly all Sage-Grouse vital rates. To validate our population models, we compared estimates of annual finite population growth rates (λ) from our female-based life cycle models to those attained from male-based lek counts. Post-fledging (i.e., after second year, second year, and juvenile) female survival parameters contributed most to past variation in λ during our study and had the greatest potential to change λ in the future, indicating these vital rates as important determinants of Sage-Grouse population dynamics. In addition, annual estimates of λ from female-based life cycle models and male-based lek data were similar, providing the most rigorous evidence to date that lek counts of males can serve as a valid index of Sage-Grouse population change. Our comparison of fixed and mixed statistical models for evaluating temporal variation in nest survival and initiation suggest that conservation planners use caution when evaluating short-term nesting studies and using associated fixed-effect results to develop conservation objectives. In addition, our findings indicated that Greater attention should be paid to those factors affecting Sage-Grouse post-fledging females. Our approach demonstrates the need for more long-term studies of species vital rates across the life cycle. Such studies should address the decoupling of sampling variation from underlying process (co)variation in vital rates, identification of how such variation drives population dynamics, and how decision makers can use this information to re-direct conservation efforts to address the most limiting points in the life cycle for a given population.
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effects of climatic variation and reproductive trade offs vary by measure of reproductive effort in Greater sage grouse
Ecosphere, 2014Co-Authors: Danny Caudill, David K. Dahlgren, Michael R. Guttery, Terry A. Messmer, Brent Bibles, Gretchen Caudill, Erin H Leone, Renee ChiAbstract:Research on long-lived iteroparous species has shown that reproductive success may increase with age, until the onset of senescence, and that prior reproductive success may influence current reproductive success. Such complex reproductive dynamics can complicate conservation strategies, especially for harvested species. Further complicating the matter is the fact that most studies of reproductive costs are only able to evaluate a single measure of reproductive effort. We systematically evaluated the effects of climatic variation and reproductive trade-offs on multiple reproductive vital rates for Greater Sage-Grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus; Sage-Grouse), a relatively long-lived galliforme of conservation concern throughout western North America. Based on over a decade of field observations, we hypothesized that reproduction is influenced by previous reproductive success. We monitored hen reproductive activity from 1998 to 2010, and used generalized linear mixed models to assess effects of climate and p...
David K. Dahlgren - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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the effects of electric power lines on the breeding ecology of Greater sage grouse
PLOS ONE, 2019Co-Authors: Michel T Kohl, David K. Dahlgren, Michael R. Guttery, Terry A. Messmer, Benjamin A Crabb, Randy T Larsen, Shandra Nicole Frey, Sherry Liguori, Rick J BaxterAbstract:Anthropogenic infrastructure can negatively affect wildlife through direct mortality and/or displacement behaviors. Some tetranoids (grouse spp.) species are particularly vulnerable to tall anthropogenic structures because they evolved in ecosystems void of vertical structures. In western North America, electric power transmission and distribution lines (power lines) occur in sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) landscapes within the range of the Greater Sage-Grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus; Sage-Grouse). The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service recommended using buffer zones near leks to mitigate the potential impacts of power lines on Sage-Grouse. However, recommended buffer distances are inconsistent across state and federal agencies because data are lacking. To address this, we evaluated the effects of power lines on Sage-Grouse breeding ecology within Utah, portions of southeastern Idaho, and southwestern Wyoming from 1998–2013. Overall, power lines negatively affected lek trends up to a distance of 2.7 and 2.8 km, respectively. Power lines died not affect lek persistence. Female Sage-Grouse avoided transmission lines during the nesting and brooding seasons at distances up to 1.1 and 0.8 km, respectively. Nest and brood success were negatively affected by transmission lines up to distances of 2.6 and 1.1 km, respectively. Distribution lines did not appear to affect Sage-Grouse habitat selection or reproductive fitness. Our analyses demonstrated the value of sagebrush cover in mitigating potential power line impacts. Managers can minimize the effects of new transmission power lines by placing them in existing anthropogenic corridors and/or incorporating buffers at least 2.8 km from active leks. Given the uncertainty we observed in our analyses regarding Sage-Grouse response to distribution lines coupled with their role in providing electric power service directly to individual consumers, we recommend that buffers for these power lines be considered on a case-by-case basis. Micrositing to avoid important habitats and habitat reclamation may reduce the potential impacts of new power line construction.
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Effect of power lines on the Greater Sage-Grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus; Sage-Grouse) in Utah, portions of southeastern Idaho, and southwestern Wyoming, USA, 1998–2013.
2019Co-Authors: Michel T Kohl, David K. Dahlgren, Michael R. Guttery, Terry A. Messmer, Benjamin A Crabb, Randy T Larsen, Sherry Liguori, Shandra N. Frey, Rick J BaxterAbstract:Lines are population-averaged fitted values from the best-fit GLMM (S5 Appendix) describing the effects of transmission lines (A) and distribution lines (B) on Sage-Grouse nest success. The vertical dashed line identifies the response threshold at which Sage-Grouse response changes. The shaded areas highlight uncertainty (ΔAICc < 2) around the location of the response threshold. Circles represent a binning of data points that informed the model; sample sizes within each 1 km bin are identified in parentheses. For example, 15 nests were recorded between 0–1 km from a transmission line, of which 40% (n = 6) persisted.
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Effect of power lines on the Greater Sage-Grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus; Sage-Grouse) in Utah, portions of southeastern Idaho, and southwestern Wyoming, USA, 1998–2013.
2019Co-Authors: Michel T Kohl, David K. Dahlgren, Michael R. Guttery, Terry A. Messmer, Benjamin A Crabb, Randy T Larsen, Sherry Liguori, Shandra N. Frey, Rick J BaxterAbstract:Lines are population-averaged fitted values from the best-fit GLMM (S6 Appendix) describing the effects of transmission lines on Sage-Grouse brood success. Circles represent a binning of data points that informed the model; sample sizes within each 1 km bin are identified in parentheses. For example, 18 nests were recorded between 0–1 km from a transmission line, of which 11% (n = 2) persisted.
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evaluating vital rate contributions to Greater sage grouse population dynamics to inform conservation
Ecosphere, 2016Co-Authors: David K. Dahlgren, Michael R. Guttery, Terry A. Messmer, Danny Caudill, Robert Dwayne Elmore, Renee Chi, David N KoonsAbstract:Species conservation efforts often use short-term studies that fail to identify the vital rates that contribute most to population growth. Although the Greater Sage-Grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus; Sage-Grouse) is a candidate for protection under the U.S. Endangered Species Act, and is sometimes referred to as an umbrella species in the sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) biome of western North America, the failure of proposed management strategies to focus on key vital rates that may contribute most to achieving population stability remains problematic for sustainable conservation. To address this dilemma, we performed both prospective and retrospective perturbation analyses of a life cycle model based on a 12-yr study that encompassed nearly all Sage-Grouse vital rates. To validate our population models, we compared estimates of annual finite population growth rates (λ) from our female-based life cycle models to those attained from male-based lek counts. Post-fledging (i.e., after second year, second year, and juvenile) female survival parameters contributed most to past variation in λ during our study and had the greatest potential to change λ in the future, indicating these vital rates as important determinants of Sage-Grouse population dynamics. In addition, annual estimates of λ from female-based life cycle models and male-based lek data were similar, providing the most rigorous evidence to date that lek counts of males can serve as a valid index of Sage-Grouse population change. Our comparison of fixed and mixed statistical models for evaluating temporal variation in nest survival and initiation suggest that conservation planners use caution when evaluating short-term nesting studies and using associated fixed-effect results to develop conservation objectives. In addition, our findings indicated that Greater attention should be paid to those factors affecting Sage-Grouse post-fledging females. Our approach demonstrates the need for more long-term studies of species vital rates across the life cycle. Such studies should address the decoupling of sampling variation from underlying process (co)variation in vital rates, identification of how such variation drives population dynamics, and how decision makers can use this information to re-direct conservation efforts to address the most limiting points in the life cycle for a given population.
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effects of climatic variation and reproductive trade offs vary by measure of reproductive effort in Greater sage grouse
Ecosphere, 2014Co-Authors: Danny Caudill, David K. Dahlgren, Michael R. Guttery, Terry A. Messmer, Brent Bibles, Gretchen Caudill, Erin H Leone, Renee ChiAbstract:Research on long-lived iteroparous species has shown that reproductive success may increase with age, until the onset of senescence, and that prior reproductive success may influence current reproductive success. Such complex reproductive dynamics can complicate conservation strategies, especially for harvested species. Further complicating the matter is the fact that most studies of reproductive costs are only able to evaluate a single measure of reproductive effort. We systematically evaluated the effects of climatic variation and reproductive trade-offs on multiple reproductive vital rates for Greater Sage-Grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus; Sage-Grouse), a relatively long-lived galliforme of conservation concern throughout western North America. Based on over a decade of field observations, we hypothesized that reproduction is influenced by previous reproductive success. We monitored hen reproductive activity from 1998 to 2010, and used generalized linear mixed models to assess effects of climate and p...
Cameron L. Aldridge - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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Optimizing the use of endangered species in multi-population collection, captive breeding and release programs
Elsevier, 2019Co-Authors: Julie A Heinrichs, Cameron L. Aldridge, Donald T. Mckinnon, Axel MoehrenschlagerAbstract:Evaluating the spectrum of risks and rewards of captive breeding and release is central to identifying responsible conservation actions for declining species. Trade-offs among source, captive, and target wild populations are expected when optimizing the use of the last few remaining individuals of a population. Yet few analyses are conducted to optimize the choice of source population from which animals are collected and released. Using linked scenarios, we evaluated the risks and rewards of collection, ex situ rearing, and release of endangered Greater Sage-Grouse in Canada. We integrated demographic rates from captive populations with wild population abundance, demography, and habitat relationships in a spatially explicit individual-based model framework for multiple populations across national and international borders. We quantified the potential for released birds to improve wild abundance and reduce extinction risk in two target wild populations. To gain general insight, we compared risks and rewards among different source and target population sizes and trajectories. The risks caused by removing individuals from the wild depended on the number of animals removed, and source abundance and trajectory, and were partially obscured by stochasticity. Releases into small and rapidly declining populations provided the greatest near-term reductions in extinction risk, but improvements were short-term. Yet releases into larger and more stable populations resulted in longer lasting conservation benefits than in more vulnerable populations but required Greater initial release effort. Systematic modeling approaches that evaluate a spectrum of trade-offs and quantify conservation risks and benefits can help direct the expectations and effort invested in captive breeding and release programs. Keywords: Captive breeding, Conservation translocation, Greater Sage-Grouse, Individual-based model, Reinforcement, Reintroductio
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prioritizing actions for the recovery of endangered species emergent insights from Greater sage grouse simulation modeling
Biological Conservation, 2018Co-Authors: Cameron L. Aldridge, Adrian P Monroe, David L Gummer, Julie A Heinrichs, Nathan H SchumakerAbstract:Abstract Urgent conservation situations require immediate action informed by existing data and information. Model-based analyses are well suited to rapidly identifying and evaluating alternative actions but often lack explicit linkages between habitat conditions and population outcomes. We provide an example of how spatially explicit population modeling can uniquely inform conservation planning by integrating changes in habitat conditions with population responses. Using a case study of the critically endangered Greater Sage-Grouse in Canada, we integrated habitat selection maps, demography and demographic risk maps, movement, and behavior into a predictive individual-based modeling framework. We used this framework to simulate population dynamics, evaluate demographic sensitivities, assess source-sink dynamics, and compared the population gains from restoring different types (strengths) of sinks. Sensitivity analysis results underscored the need for multiple, simultaneous population recovery actions to stabilize the population, including improving chick and adult survival. Strong source-sink dynamics were an emergent property of simulations, driven by the maladaptive selection of habitats with low chick survival and nest success. Simulated habitat restorations improving chick survival conditions in strong sinks were more effective at increasing abundance than actions targeting all sinks, or removing sinks. Spatially explicit population modeling can be an informative means of predicting and comparing potential population responses to habitat restoration and population recovery options. Individual-based modeling can uniquely evaluate habitat-population dynamics and can be particularly useful for critically endangered species, when too few animals or time remains to conduct field experiments.
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effects of lek count protocols on Greater sage grouse population trend estimates
Journal of Wildlife Management, 2016Co-Authors: Adrian P Monroe, David R Edmunds, Cameron L. AldridgeAbstract:Annual counts of males displaying at lek sites are an important tool for monitoring Greater Sage-Grouse populations (Centrocercus urophasianus), but seasonal and diurnal variation in lek attendance may increase variance and bias of trend analyses. Recommendations for protocols to reduce observation error have called for restricting lek counts to within 30 minutes of sunrise, but this may limit the number of lek counts available for analysis, particularly from years before monitoring was widely standardized. Reducing the temporal window for conducting lek counts also may constrain the ability of agencies to monitor leks efficiently. We used lek count data collected across Wyoming during 1995−2014 to investigate the effect of lek counts conducted between 30 minutes before and 30, 60, or 90 minutes after sunrise on population trend estimates. We also evaluated trends across scales relevant to management, including statewide, within Working Group Areas and Core Areas, and for individual leks. To further evaluate accuracy and precision of trend estimates from lek count protocols, we used simulations based on a lek attendance model and compared simulated and estimated values of annual rate of change in population size (λ) from scenarios of varying numbers of leks, lek count timing, and count frequency (counts/lek/year). We found that restricting analyses to counts conducted within 30 minutes of sunrise generally did not improve precision of population trend estimates, although differences among timings increased as the number of leks and count frequency decreased. Lek attendance declined >30 minutes after sunrise, but simulations indicated that including lek counts conducted up to 90 minutes after sunrise can increase the number of leks monitored compared to trend estimates based on counts conducted within 30 minutes of sunrise. This increase in leks monitored resulted in Greater precision of estimates without reducing accuracy. Increasing count frequency also improved precision. These results suggest that the current distribution of count timings available in lek count databases such as that of Wyoming (conducted up to 90 minutes after sunrise) can be used to estimate Sage-Grouse population trends without reducing precision or accuracy relative to trends from counts conducted within 30 minutes of sunrise. However, only 10% of all Wyoming counts in our sample (1995−2014) were conducted 61−90 minutes after sunrise, and further increasing this percentage may still bias trend estimates because of declining lek attendance. Published 2016. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.
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forecasting sagebrush ecosystem components and Greater sage grouse habitat for 2050 learning from past climate patterns and landsat imagery to predict the future
Ecological Indicators, 2015Co-Authors: Collin G Homer, Cameron L. Aldridge, George Xian, Debra K Meyer, Thomas R Loveland, Michael S OdonnellAbstract:Abstract Sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) ecosystems constitute the largest single North American shrub ecosystem and provide vital ecological, hydrological, biological, agricultural, and recreational ecosystem services. Disturbances have altered and reduced this ecosystem historically, but climate change may ultimately represent the greatest future risk. Improved ways to quantify, monitor, and predict climate-driven gradual change in this ecosystem is vital to its future management. We examined the annual change of Daymet precipitation (daily gridded climate data) and five remote sensing ecosystem sagebrush vegetation and soil components (bare ground, herbaceous, litter, sagebrush, and shrub) from 1984 to 2011 in southwestern Wyoming. Bare ground displayed an increasing trend in abundance over time, and herbaceous, litter, shrub, and sagebrush showed a decreasing trend. Total precipitation amounts show a downward trend during the same period. We established statistically significant correlations between each sagebrush component and historical precipitation records using a simple least squares linear regression. Using the historical relationship between sagebrush component abundance and precipitation in a linear model, we forecasted the abundance of the sagebrush components in 2050 using Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) precipitation scenarios A1B and A2. Bare ground was the only component that increased under both future scenarios, with a net increase of 48.98 km2 (1.1%) across the study area under the A1B scenario and 41.15 km2 (0.9%) under the A2 scenario. The remaining components decreased under both future scenarios: litter had the highest net reductions with 49.82 km2 (4.1%) under A1B and 50.8 km2 (4.2%) under A2, and herbaceous had the smallest net reductions with 39.95 km2 (3.8%) under A1B and 40.59 km2 (3.3%) under A2. We applied the 2050 forecast sagebrush component values to contemporary (circa 2006) Greater Sage-Grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) habitat models to evaluate the effects of potential climate-induced habitat change. Under the 2050 IPCC A1B scenario, 11.6% of currently identified nesting habitat was lost, and 0.002% of new potential habitat was gained, with 4% of summer habitat lost and 0.039% gained. Our results demonstrate the successful ability of remote sensing based sagebrush components, when coupled with precipitation, to forecast future component response using IPCC precipitation scenarios. Our approach also enables future quantification of Greater Sage-Grouse habitat under different precipitation scenarios, and provides additional capability to identify regional precipitation influence on sagebrush component response.
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habitat prioritization across large landscapes multiple seasons and novel areas an example using Greater sage grouse in wyoming
Wildlife Monographs, 2014Co-Authors: Bradley C Fedy, Cameron L. Aldridge, Jeffrey L. Beck, Gregory D Johnson, Matthew J. Holloran, Kevin E Doherty, Michael S Odonnell, Bryan Bedrosian, David L Gummer, Nicholas W KaczorAbstract:Animal habitat selection is an important and expansive area of research in ecology. In particular, the study of habitat selection is critical in habitat prioritization efforts for species of conservation concern. Landscape planning for species is happening at ever-increasing extents because of the appreciation for the role of landscape-scale patterns in species persistence coupled to improved datasets for species and habitats, and the expanding and intensifying footprint of human land uses on the landscape. We present a large-scale collaborative effort to develop habitat selection models across large landscapes and multiple seasons for prioritizing habitat for a species of conservation concern. Greater Sage-Grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus, hereafter Sage-Grouse) occur in western semi- arid landscapes in North America. Range-wide population declines of this species have been documented, and it is currently considered as "warranted but precluded" from listing under the United States Endangered Species Act. Wyoming is predicted to remain a stronghold for Sage-Grouse populations and contains approximately 37% of remaining birds. We compiled location data from 14 unique radiotelemetry studies (data collected 1994-2010) and habitat data from high-quality, biologically relevant, geographic information system (GIS) layers across Wyoming. We developed habitat selection models for Greater Sage-Grouse across Wyoming for 3 distinct life stages: 1) nesting, 2) summer, and 3) winter. We developed patch and landscape models across 4 extents, producing statewide and regional (southwest, central, northeast) models for Wyoming. Habitat selection varied among regions and seasons, yet preferred habitat attributes generally matched the extensive literature on Sage-Grouse seasonal habitat requirements. Across seasons and regions, birds preferred areas with Greater percentage sagebrush cover and avoided paved roads, agriculture, and forested areas. Birds consistently preferred areas with higher precipitation in the summer and avoided rugged terrain in the winter. Selection for sagebrush cover varied regionally with stronger selection in the Northeast region, likely because of limited availability, whereas avoidance of paved roads was fairly consistent across regions. We chose resource selection function (RSF) thresholds for each model set (seasonalregional combination) that delineated important seasonal habitats for Sage-Grouse. Each model set showed good validation and discriminatory capabilities within study-site boundaries. We applied the nesting-season models to a novel area not included in model
Michael R. Guttery - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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the effects of electric power lines on the breeding ecology of Greater sage grouse
PLOS ONE, 2019Co-Authors: Michel T Kohl, David K. Dahlgren, Michael R. Guttery, Terry A. Messmer, Benjamin A Crabb, Randy T Larsen, Shandra Nicole Frey, Sherry Liguori, Rick J BaxterAbstract:Anthropogenic infrastructure can negatively affect wildlife through direct mortality and/or displacement behaviors. Some tetranoids (grouse spp.) species are particularly vulnerable to tall anthropogenic structures because they evolved in ecosystems void of vertical structures. In western North America, electric power transmission and distribution lines (power lines) occur in sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) landscapes within the range of the Greater Sage-Grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus; Sage-Grouse). The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service recommended using buffer zones near leks to mitigate the potential impacts of power lines on Sage-Grouse. However, recommended buffer distances are inconsistent across state and federal agencies because data are lacking. To address this, we evaluated the effects of power lines on Sage-Grouse breeding ecology within Utah, portions of southeastern Idaho, and southwestern Wyoming from 1998–2013. Overall, power lines negatively affected lek trends up to a distance of 2.7 and 2.8 km, respectively. Power lines died not affect lek persistence. Female Sage-Grouse avoided transmission lines during the nesting and brooding seasons at distances up to 1.1 and 0.8 km, respectively. Nest and brood success were negatively affected by transmission lines up to distances of 2.6 and 1.1 km, respectively. Distribution lines did not appear to affect Sage-Grouse habitat selection or reproductive fitness. Our analyses demonstrated the value of sagebrush cover in mitigating potential power line impacts. Managers can minimize the effects of new transmission power lines by placing them in existing anthropogenic corridors and/or incorporating buffers at least 2.8 km from active leks. Given the uncertainty we observed in our analyses regarding Sage-Grouse response to distribution lines coupled with their role in providing electric power service directly to individual consumers, we recommend that buffers for these power lines be considered on a case-by-case basis. Micrositing to avoid important habitats and habitat reclamation may reduce the potential impacts of new power line construction.
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Effect of power lines on the Greater Sage-Grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus; Sage-Grouse) in Utah, portions of southeastern Idaho, and southwestern Wyoming, USA, 1998–2013.
2019Co-Authors: Michel T Kohl, David K. Dahlgren, Michael R. Guttery, Terry A. Messmer, Benjamin A Crabb, Randy T Larsen, Sherry Liguori, Shandra N. Frey, Rick J BaxterAbstract:Lines are population-averaged fitted values from the best-fit GLMM (S5 Appendix) describing the effects of transmission lines (A) and distribution lines (B) on Sage-Grouse nest success. The vertical dashed line identifies the response threshold at which Sage-Grouse response changes. The shaded areas highlight uncertainty (ΔAICc < 2) around the location of the response threshold. Circles represent a binning of data points that informed the model; sample sizes within each 1 km bin are identified in parentheses. For example, 15 nests were recorded between 0–1 km from a transmission line, of which 40% (n = 6) persisted.
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Effect of power lines on the Greater Sage-Grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus; Sage-Grouse) in Utah, portions of southeastern Idaho, and southwestern Wyoming, USA, 1998–2013.
2019Co-Authors: Michel T Kohl, David K. Dahlgren, Michael R. Guttery, Terry A. Messmer, Benjamin A Crabb, Randy T Larsen, Sherry Liguori, Shandra N. Frey, Rick J BaxterAbstract:Lines are population-averaged fitted values from the best-fit GLMM (S6 Appendix) describing the effects of transmission lines on Sage-Grouse brood success. Circles represent a binning of data points that informed the model; sample sizes within each 1 km bin are identified in parentheses. For example, 18 nests were recorded between 0–1 km from a transmission line, of which 11% (n = 2) persisted.
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evaluating vital rate contributions to Greater sage grouse population dynamics to inform conservation
Ecosphere, 2016Co-Authors: David K. Dahlgren, Michael R. Guttery, Terry A. Messmer, Danny Caudill, Robert Dwayne Elmore, Renee Chi, David N KoonsAbstract:Species conservation efforts often use short-term studies that fail to identify the vital rates that contribute most to population growth. Although the Greater Sage-Grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus; Sage-Grouse) is a candidate for protection under the U.S. Endangered Species Act, and is sometimes referred to as an umbrella species in the sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) biome of western North America, the failure of proposed management strategies to focus on key vital rates that may contribute most to achieving population stability remains problematic for sustainable conservation. To address this dilemma, we performed both prospective and retrospective perturbation analyses of a life cycle model based on a 12-yr study that encompassed nearly all Sage-Grouse vital rates. To validate our population models, we compared estimates of annual finite population growth rates (λ) from our female-based life cycle models to those attained from male-based lek counts. Post-fledging (i.e., after second year, second year, and juvenile) female survival parameters contributed most to past variation in λ during our study and had the greatest potential to change λ in the future, indicating these vital rates as important determinants of Sage-Grouse population dynamics. In addition, annual estimates of λ from female-based life cycle models and male-based lek data were similar, providing the most rigorous evidence to date that lek counts of males can serve as a valid index of Sage-Grouse population change. Our comparison of fixed and mixed statistical models for evaluating temporal variation in nest survival and initiation suggest that conservation planners use caution when evaluating short-term nesting studies and using associated fixed-effect results to develop conservation objectives. In addition, our findings indicated that Greater attention should be paid to those factors affecting Sage-Grouse post-fledging females. Our approach demonstrates the need for more long-term studies of species vital rates across the life cycle. Such studies should address the decoupling of sampling variation from underlying process (co)variation in vital rates, identification of how such variation drives population dynamics, and how decision makers can use this information to re-direct conservation efforts to address the most limiting points in the life cycle for a given population.
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effects of climatic variation and reproductive trade offs vary by measure of reproductive effort in Greater sage grouse
Ecosphere, 2014Co-Authors: Danny Caudill, David K. Dahlgren, Michael R. Guttery, Terry A. Messmer, Brent Bibles, Gretchen Caudill, Erin H Leone, Renee ChiAbstract:Research on long-lived iteroparous species has shown that reproductive success may increase with age, until the onset of senescence, and that prior reproductive success may influence current reproductive success. Such complex reproductive dynamics can complicate conservation strategies, especially for harvested species. Further complicating the matter is the fact that most studies of reproductive costs are only able to evaluate a single measure of reproductive effort. We systematically evaluated the effects of climatic variation and reproductive trade-offs on multiple reproductive vital rates for Greater Sage-Grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus; Sage-Grouse), a relatively long-lived galliforme of conservation concern throughout western North America. Based on over a decade of field observations, we hypothesized that reproduction is influenced by previous reproductive success. We monitored hen reproductive activity from 1998 to 2010, and used generalized linear mixed models to assess effects of climate and p...
