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Christina Beatty - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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The real level of Unemployment 2017
2017Co-Authors: Christina Beatty, Stephen Fothergill, Tony GoreAbstract:Key Points - This report challenges the view that the UK economy is operating at or close to full employment. It presents alternative estimates of the level of Unemployment, based on a re-working of official statistics, for every local authority district in England, Scotland and Wales. - The report estimates that in 2017 the ‘real level of Unemployment’ across Britain as a whole is nearly 2.3 million. This compares with just under 800,000 on the claimant count and 1.5 million on the wider ILO measure of Unemployment preferred by the government. - The report estimates that there are some 760,000 ‘Hidden unemployed’ on incapacity-related benefits (these days primarily Employment and Support Allowance). These are men and women who might have been expected to be in work in a genuinely fully employed economy. They do not represent fraudulent claims. - The real level of Unemployment and the scale of Hidden Unemployment have both fallen since 2012. However, there remain almost as many unemployed ‘Hidden’ on incapacity benefits as ‘visible’ on the Unemployment claimant count. - Hidden Unemployment is disproportionately concentrated in the weakest local economies, particularly Britain’s older industrial areas and a number of seaside towns. The effect is to mask the true scale of labour market disparities between the best and worst parts of the country. - In a number of local economies, including much of North East England, East Lancashire, Merseyside, the Welsh Valleys and the Birmingham and Glasgow areas, the real level of Unemployment remains at or just below 10 per cent of the working age population. Much of southern and eastern England outside London, with real Unemployment in the 2-3 per cent range, could however lay claim to operating near full employment.
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New Perspectives on Health, Disability, Welfare and the Labour Market - Disability Benefits in an Age of Austerity
Social Policy & Administration, 2015Co-Authors: Christina Beatty, Steve FothergillAbstract:This article takes a long-view of the huge rise in disability claimant numbers in the UK since the early 1980s and looks ahead to the trends that can now be expected to emerge in an era of fiscal austerity and welfare reform. The article's central thesis is that disability numbers are best understood as part of a triangular relationship between levels of employment, Unemployment and sickness. In particular, the big decline of industrial employment in many places has often resulted in large-scale 'Hidden Unemployment' on disability benefits, especially among low-skilled workers. Looking ahead, the UK's welfare reforms are set to reduce disability claimant numbers but principally by restricting access to Employment and Support Allowance, the new disability benefit. The main effect will be to divert substantial numbers of men and women with ill health or disability onto Unemployment benefits instead or, more often, out of the benefits system altogether.
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Twenty years on: has the economy of the UK coalfields recovered?
Environment and Planning A: Economy and Space, 2007Co-Authors: Christina Beatty, Stephen Fothergill, Ryan PowellAbstract:Almost the whole of the British coal industry has closed since the early 1980s. The authors assess the extent to which the areas once dependent on coalmining have adapted to this job loss. A ‘labour-market accounting’ approach is employed to document the principal changes in employment, Unemployment, commuting, and activity rates among men in the English and Welsh coalfields over the period to 2004, building on previous similar research covering the period 1981 – 91. The authors point to a strong recovery of employment among men in these areas, though this is not yet on a scale to offset all the coal job losses and there is important variation between areas. There is also evidence of extensive and continuing ‘Hidden Unemployment’.
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The diversion from ‘Unemployment’ to ‘sickness’ across British regions and districts
Regional Studies, 2005Co-Authors: Christina Beatty, Stephen FothergillAbstract:Beatty C. and Fothergill S. (2005) The diversion from ‘Unemployment’ to ‘sickness’ across British regions and districts, Regional Studies 39 , 837–854. Around 2.7 million non‐employed adults of working age in the UK claim sickness‐related benefits, and the numbers have risen steeply over time. The very large variation in the numbers across districts and regions points strongly to extensive Hidden Unemployment, especially in older industrial areas affected by job losses. This paper builds on two previous papers by the same authors – one dealing with the theoretical framework and the other with a local case study – to present wholly new estimates of the scale of the diversion across all parts of the country. It also questions contemporary perceptions of the UK labour market and the validity of current approaches to re‐engaging sickness claimants with employment.
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Hidden Unemployment Among Men: A Case Study
Regional Studies, 2002Co-Authors: Christina Beatty, Stephen FothergillAbstract:The debate about the extent of Hidden Unemployment is central to understanding the contemporary UK labour market. This paper provides a detailed case study of one area - Barrow-in-Furness - where major industrial job losses have co-existed with falling claimant Unemployment among men. Using aggregate statistics and new survey evidence, it argues that these trends mask extensive Hidden Unemployment, especially among men on sickness-related benefits. Comparisons are also made with areas covered by similar surveys. The paper concludes that the claimant and International Labour Organization measures of Unemployment both appear deeply flawed in the UK context because of the diversion from Unemployment to sickness benefits. Le debat sur l'importance du chomage cache est essentiel a la comprehension du marche du travail contemporain au Royaume-Uni. Cet article cherche a fournir une etude de cas detaillee d'une zone - Barrow-in-Furness - ou d'importantes suppressions d'emplois ont coexiste avec une baisse du nomb...
Jan Herbst - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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Local Unemployment in Poland: rural-urban contrasts
Applied Economics, 2011Co-Authors: Hilary Ingham, Mike Ingham, Jan HerbstAbstract:Unemployment continues to bedevil Poland, albeit with striking sub-national differences, which this article seeks to explain using random effects error component two-stage estimation for the country's NUTS 4 (nomenclature des unites territoriales statistiques) level powiats. Given the economy's peculiar configuration under communism, with its large private agricultural sector, emphasis is placed on rural–urban differences. While less densely populated areas do suffer higher Unemployment rates, the effect is moderated by Hidden Unemployment in farming. On the other hand, powiats that housed the ex-state farms suffer a negative long-term legacy. Other notable results include an evident positive impact of foreign capital on local labour market fortunes.
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Regional Unemployment in Poland: Rural-Urban Contrasts
Applied Economics, 2009Co-Authors: Hilary Ingham, Mike Ingham, Jan HerbstAbstract:Unemployment continues to bedevil Poland, albeit with striking sub-national differences, which this paper seeks to explain using random effects error component two-stage estimation for the country's NUTS 4 level powiats. Given the economy's peculiar configuration under communism, with its large private agricultural sector, emphasis is placed on rural-urban differences. While less densely populated areas do suffer higher Unemployment rates, the effect is moderated by Hidden Unemployment in farming. On the other hand, powiats that housed the ex-state farms suffer a negative long-term legacy. Other notable results include an evident positive impact of foreign capital on local labour market fortunes.
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Why do Local Unemployment Rates in Poland Vary so Much
2008Co-Authors: Hilary Ingham, Mike Ingham, Jan HerbstAbstract:Unemployment continues to bedevil Poland, albeit with striking sub-national differences, which this paper seeks to explain using random effects error component two-stage estimation for the country's NUTS 4 level powiats. Given the economy's peculiar configuration under communism, with its large private agricultural sector, emphasis is placed on rural-urban differences. While less densely populated areas do suffer higher Unemployment rates, the effect is moderated by Hidden Unemployment in farming. On the other hand, powiats that housed the ex-state farms suffer a negative long-term legacy. Other notable results include an evident positive impact of foreign capital on local labour market fortunes.
Włodzimierz Kołodziejczak - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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Hidden Unemployment IN POLISH AGRICULTURE IN 2005-2018 – A SIMULATION OF THE SCALE OF THE PROBLEM
Annals of the Polish Association of Agricultural and Agribusiness Economists, 2020Co-Authors: Włodzimierz KołodziejczakAbstract:The purpose of this paper is to estimate the levels of potential Hidden Unemployment in Polish agriculture in 2005, 2015 and 2018. Excessive employment in agriculture (understood as Hidden Unemployment) is one of the key outstanding problems in the process of modernizing Polish rural areas. This paper uses a method for estimating these processes based on the results of a simulation based on the assumption that agriculture has a 5% share in the total working population employed in the national economy. The study relied on EUROSTAT and Central Statistical Office data and on relevant literature. The level of agricultural employment and the amount of surplus workforce differ across voivodships and suggest that structural factors continue to have a strong impact. The distance to the 5% level assumed in the simulation has been decreasing in subsequent years. Hence, achieving this goal seems more and more realistic.
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AN ATTEMPT TO ASSESS THE SCALE OF Hidden Unemployment IN POLISH AGRICULTURE IN 2017
Journal of Agribusiness and Rural Development, 2018Co-Authors: Włodzimierz KołodziejczakAbstract:Hidden employment in agriculture is one of the key outstanding problems in the Polish rural modernization process. The purpose of this paper is to estimate the extent of changes in the Polish market in a scenario where the share of agricultural employees in the total number of employees would be close to that recorded in European Union countries (5%). In the study period, the level of Hidden Unemployment in agriculture varies from one voivodeship to another. The level of agricultural employment and the amount of surplus workforce suggest that structural factors continue to have a strong impact. There are no realistic ways to reduce agricul- tural employment if the released workforce have no alterna- tive non-agricultural job opportunities which are conveniently located and match their qualitative characteristics. However, the 5% level used in the simulation seems attainable within a ten to twenty-year time frame, mainly because of the per- sistent economic growth and a shortage of labor experienced in non-agricultural sectors. The creation of jobs and the align- ment of qualitative (structural) characteristics between labor supply and demand must be a natural process resulting in a sustainable balance in the labor market which does not re- quire to be artificially maintained with public funds.
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Hidden Unemployment IN POLISH AGRICULTURE IN 1995–2015
Journal of Agribusiness and Rural Development, 2016Co-Authors: Włodzimierz KołodziejczakAbstract:The aim of the paper is to investigate the scale of changes in the labour market in Poland, assuming that the number of persons employed in agriculture would amount to 5% of the total number of people employed in the national economy, i.e. when we eliminate the potential surplus of employment in individual farms. The study was conducted on the basis of the BAEL data from the years 1995–2015. It was shown that there was a steady improvement in the labour market and a reduction of the level of potential Hidden Unemployment in agriculture, mainly due to economic growth and the absorption of labour force by the non-agricultural sectors. Research results let us assume that achieving the level of employment in the agriculture similar to that specifi ed in the study is possible within a period of several years.
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Nadwyżka zatrudnienia w polskim rolnictwie – projekcja na tle państw Unii Europejskiej
2016Co-Authors: Włodzimierz KołodziejczakAbstract:The aim of the paper was to assess the change in employment and Unemployment in Poland, if we assume that the level of employment in Polish agriculture in relation to the rest of sectors of the economy would be similar to the average value in the European Union countries. The simulation of potential Hidden Unemployment in the agriculture was made. The Author assessed the scale of changes in the labour market, which would take place after adopting the assumptions of the simulation with respect to the base state. An attempt to decompose the potential Hidden Unemployment to its cyclical and structural component was also made. The phenomenon of Hidden Unemployment is geographically diversified, but it is possible to reduce its level in all voivodships if new jobs outside the agriculture will be created. In a long-time perspective demographic changes would be decisive to this process, and current surplus of employment in the agriculture would become the chance to top up the deficit in this field in non-agricultural sectors. / Synopsis. Celem artykulu bylo oszacowanie zmian zatrudnienia i bezrobocia w Polsce przy zalozeniu, ze poziom zatrudnienia w rolnictwie polskim w relacji do pozostalych sektorow gospodarki bylby zblizony do średniej obliczonej dla panstw Unii Europejskiej. Przeprowadzono projekcje bezrobocia ukrytego potencjalnego w rolnictwie, dokonano oceny skali zmian na rynku pracy, jakie musialyby nastąpic po spelnieniu przyjetych zalozen projekcji w odniesieniu do stanu wyjściowego oraz podjeto probe dekompozycji bezrobocia ukrytego potencjalnego na skladnik cykliczny i strukturalny. Zjawisko bezrobocia ukrytego jest zroznicowane terytorialnie, jednak we wszystkich wojewodztwach mozliwe jest zmniejszenie jego poziomu, jezeli powstaną nowe miejsca pracy poza rolnictwem. Dlugookresowo decydujące mogą okazac sie zmiany demograficzne, a obecne nadwyzki zatrudnienia w rolnictwie mogą stac sie szansą na uzupelnienie niedoborow wystepujących w tym zakresie w sektorach pozarolniczych.
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Hidden Unemployment IN POLISH AGRICULTURE IN 1995–2015
University of Life Sciences in Poznań, 2016Co-Authors: Włodzimierz KołodziejczakAbstract:The aim of the paper is to investigate the scale of changes in the labour market in Poland, assuming that the number of persons employed in agriculture would amount to 5% of the total number of people employed in the national economy, i.e. when we eliminate the potential surplus of employment in individual farms. The study was conducted on the basis of the BAEL data from the years 1995–2015. It was shown that there was a steady improvement in the labour market and a reduction of the level of potential Hidden Unemployment in agriculture, mainly due to economic growth and the absorption of labour force by the non-agricultural sectors. Research results let us assume that achieving the level of employment in the agriculture similar to that specifi ed in the study is possible within a period of several years
Stephen Fothergill - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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The real level of Unemployment 2017
2017Co-Authors: Christina Beatty, Stephen Fothergill, Tony GoreAbstract:Key Points - This report challenges the view that the UK economy is operating at or close to full employment. It presents alternative estimates of the level of Unemployment, based on a re-working of official statistics, for every local authority district in England, Scotland and Wales. - The report estimates that in 2017 the ‘real level of Unemployment’ across Britain as a whole is nearly 2.3 million. This compares with just under 800,000 on the claimant count and 1.5 million on the wider ILO measure of Unemployment preferred by the government. - The report estimates that there are some 760,000 ‘Hidden unemployed’ on incapacity-related benefits (these days primarily Employment and Support Allowance). These are men and women who might have been expected to be in work in a genuinely fully employed economy. They do not represent fraudulent claims. - The real level of Unemployment and the scale of Hidden Unemployment have both fallen since 2012. However, there remain almost as many unemployed ‘Hidden’ on incapacity benefits as ‘visible’ on the Unemployment claimant count. - Hidden Unemployment is disproportionately concentrated in the weakest local economies, particularly Britain’s older industrial areas and a number of seaside towns. The effect is to mask the true scale of labour market disparities between the best and worst parts of the country. - In a number of local economies, including much of North East England, East Lancashire, Merseyside, the Welsh Valleys and the Birmingham and Glasgow areas, the real level of Unemployment remains at or just below 10 per cent of the working age population. Much of southern and eastern England outside London, with real Unemployment in the 2-3 per cent range, could however lay claim to operating near full employment.
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Twenty years on: has the economy of the UK coalfields recovered?
Environment and Planning A: Economy and Space, 2007Co-Authors: Christina Beatty, Stephen Fothergill, Ryan PowellAbstract:Almost the whole of the British coal industry has closed since the early 1980s. The authors assess the extent to which the areas once dependent on coalmining have adapted to this job loss. A ‘labour-market accounting’ approach is employed to document the principal changes in employment, Unemployment, commuting, and activity rates among men in the English and Welsh coalfields over the period to 2004, building on previous similar research covering the period 1981 – 91. The authors point to a strong recovery of employment among men in these areas, though this is not yet on a scale to offset all the coal job losses and there is important variation between areas. There is also evidence of extensive and continuing ‘Hidden Unemployment’.
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The diversion from ‘Unemployment’ to ‘sickness’ across British regions and districts
Regional Studies, 2005Co-Authors: Christina Beatty, Stephen FothergillAbstract:Beatty C. and Fothergill S. (2005) The diversion from ‘Unemployment’ to ‘sickness’ across British regions and districts, Regional Studies 39 , 837–854. Around 2.7 million non‐employed adults of working age in the UK claim sickness‐related benefits, and the numbers have risen steeply over time. The very large variation in the numbers across districts and regions points strongly to extensive Hidden Unemployment, especially in older industrial areas affected by job losses. This paper builds on two previous papers by the same authors – one dealing with the theoretical framework and the other with a local case study – to present wholly new estimates of the scale of the diversion across all parts of the country. It also questions contemporary perceptions of the UK labour market and the validity of current approaches to re‐engaging sickness claimants with employment.
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Hidden Unemployment Among Men: A Case Study
Regional Studies, 2002Co-Authors: Christina Beatty, Stephen FothergillAbstract:The debate about the extent of Hidden Unemployment is central to understanding the contemporary UK labour market. This paper provides a detailed case study of one area - Barrow-in-Furness - where major industrial job losses have co-existed with falling claimant Unemployment among men. Using aggregate statistics and new survey evidence, it argues that these trends mask extensive Hidden Unemployment, especially among men on sickness-related benefits. Comparisons are also made with areas covered by similar surveys. The paper concludes that the claimant and International Labour Organization measures of Unemployment both appear deeply flawed in the UK context because of the diversion from Unemployment to sickness benefits. Le debat sur l'importance du chomage cache est essentiel a la comprehension du marche du travail contemporain au Royaume-Uni. Cet article cherche a fournir une etude de cas detaillee d'une zone - Barrow-in-Furness - ou d'importantes suppressions d'emplois ont coexiste avec une baisse du nomb...
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A Theory of Employment, Unemployment and Sickness
Regional Studies, 2000Co-Authors: Christina Beatty, Stephen Fothergill, Rob MacmillanAbstract:BEATTY C., FOTHERGILL S. and MACMILLAN R. (2000) A theory of employment, Unemployment and sickness, Reg. Studies 34, 617-630. This paper explains how the measurement of Unemployment is distorted by the way that 'sickness' is defined and counted by social security systems. Drawing on the concepts of 'Hidden sickness', 'the queue for jobs' and 'Hidden Unemployment', and on empirical observations from the UK, it shows how job loss can result in increased recorded sickness rather than recorded Unemployment. It also shows how this process may vary between localities and countries. The argument has profound implications for perceptions of the true extent of Unemployment and of labour market disparities between regions. BEATTY C., FOTHERGILL S. et MACMILLAN R. (2000) L'emploi, le chomage et la maladie: une theorie, Reg. Studies 34, 617-630. Cet article chercheaexpliquer comment la mesure du chomage s'avere fausseeacause de la fac¸on dont la Secu definit 'maladie' et la comptabilise. Puisant dans des notions de '...
W.j.h. Van Oorschot - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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Miracle or Nightmare? A Critical Review of Dutch Activation Policies and their Outcomes
Journal of Social Policy, 2002Co-Authors: W.j.h. Van OorschotAbstract:This article describes trends in Dutch (un)employment from the 1980s onwards, it reviews activation measures that were taken in the field of social security and labour market policies, and it critically discusses the successfulness of these measures. It concludes that it may not be justified to attribute the ‘Dutch miracle’ – the recent decrease in Unemployment and the explosive growth of employment – directly to the measures taken, and that activation policies have endangered social rights and citizenship, especially of those groups which traditionally are most vulnerable. The ‘Dutch miracle’ is further put into the perspective of a small employment growth in terms of the total of hours worked annually, the large proportion of part-time employment, and the large degree of Hidden Unemployment. If a future recession hits the Netherlands, the miracle will turn into a nightmare for many due to the significant overall loss of social protection.
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Labour market participation in The Netherlands: A critical review of policies and outcomes
2000Co-Authors: W.j.h. Van OorschotAbstract:This paper describes trends in Dutch (un)employment from the 1980s onwards, it reviews activation measures that were taken in the field of social security and labour market policies, and it critically discusses the successfulness of these measures. It concludes that it may not be justified to attribute the 'Dutch miracle' - the recent decrease in Unemployment and the explosive growth of employment -directly to the measures taken, and that activation policies have endangered the citizenship rights of unemployed and disabled people. Further, the 'Dutch miracle' is put into the perspective of a small employment growth in terms of the total of hours worked annually, the large proportion of part-time employment, and the large degree of Hidden Unemployment.