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Peter H. Verburg - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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Hotspots of Land Use Change in Europe
Environmental Research Letters, 2016Co-Authors: Tobias Kuemmerle, Daniel Muller, Christian Levers, Karl-heinz Erb, Stephan Estel, Martin Rudbeck Jepsen, Christoph Plutzar, Julia Stürck, Pieter Johannes Verkerk, Peter H. VerburgAbstract:Assessing Changes in the extent and management intensity of Land Use is crucial to understanding Land-system dynamics and their environmental and social outcomes. Yet, Changes in the spatial patterns of Land management intensity, and thus how they might relate to Changes in the extent of Land Uses, remains unclear for many world regions. We compiled and analyzed high-resolution, spatially-explicit Land-Use Change indicators capturing Changes in both the extent and management intensity of cropLand, grazing Land, forests, and urban areas for all of Europe for the period 1990-2006. Based on these indicators, we identified hotspots of Change and explored the spatial concordance of area versus intensity Changes. We found a clear East-West divide with regard to agriculture, with stronger cropLand declines and lower management intensity in the East compared to the West. Yet, these patterns were not uniform and diverging patterns of intensification in areas highly suitable for farming, and disintensification and cropLand contraction in more marginal areas emerged. Despite the moderate overall rates of Change, many regions in Europe fell into at least one Land-Use Change hotspot during 1990-2006, often related to a spatial reorganization of Land Use (i.e., co-occurring area decline and intensification or co-occurring area increase and disintensification). Our analyses highlighted the diverse spatial patterns and heterogeneity of Land-Use Changes in Europe, and the importance of jointly considering Changes in the extent and management intensity of Land Use, as well as feedbacks among Land-Use sectors. Given this spatial differentiation of Land-Use Change, and thus its environmental impacts, spatially-explicit assessments of Land-Use dynamics are important for context-specific, regionalized Land-Use policy making.
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Global priorities for national carnivore conservation under Land Use Change
Scientific Reports, 2016Co-Authors: Enrico Di Minin, Peter H. Verburg, Rob Slotow, Luke T. B. Hunter, Federico Montesino Pouzols, Tuuli Toivonen, Nigel Leader-williams, Lisanne Petracca, Atte MoilanenAbstract:Mammalian carnivores have suffered the biggest range contraction among all biodiversity and are particularly vulnerable to habitat loss and fragmentation. Therefore, we identified priority areas for the conservation of mammalian carnivores, while accounting for species-specific requirements for connectivity and expected agricultural and urban expansion. While prioritizing for carnivores only, we were also able to test their effectiveness as surrogates for 23,110 species of amphibians, birds, mammals and reptiles and 867 terrestrial ecoregions. We then assessed the risks to carnivore conservation within each country that makes a contribution to global carnivore conservation. We found that Land Use Change will potentially lead to important range losses, particularly amongst already threatened carnivore species. In addition, the 17% of Land targeted for protection under the Aichi Target 11 was found to be inadequate to conserve carnivores under expected Land Use Change. Our results also highlight that Land Use Change will decrease the effectiveness of carnivores to protect other threatened species, especially threatened amphibians. In addition, the risk of human-carnivore conflict is potentially high in countries where we identified spatial priorities for their conservation. As meeting the global biodiversity target will be inadequate for carnivore protection, innovative interventions are needed to conserve carnivores outside protected areas to compliment any proposed expansion of the protected area network.
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Land Use Change modelling: current practice and research priorities
GeoJournal, 2004Co-Authors: Peter H. Verburg, Paul P. Schot, Martin J. Dijst, A. VeldkampAbstract:Land Use Change models are tools to support the analysis of the caUses and consequences of Land Use dynamics. Scenario analysis with Land Use models can support Land Use planning and policy. Numerous Land Use models are available, developed from different disciplinary backgrounds. This paper reviews current models to identify priority issues for future Land Use Change modelling research. This discussion is based on six concepts important to Land Use modelling: (1) Level of analysis; (2) Cross-scale dynamics; (3) Driving forces; (4) Spatial interaction and neighbourhood effects; (5) Temporal dynamics; and (6) Level of integration. For each of these concepts an overview is given of the variety of methods Used to implement these concepts in operational models. It is concluded that a lot of progress has been made in building Land Use Change models. However, in order to incorporate more aspects important to Land Use modelling it is needed to develop a new generation of Land Use models that better address the multi-scale characteristics of the Land Use system, implement new techniques to quantify neighbourhood effects, explicitly deal with temporal dynamics and achieve a higher level of integration between disciplinary approaches and between models studying urban and rural Land Use Changes. If these requirements are fulfilled models will better support the analysis of Land Use dynamics and Land Use policy formulation.
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modelling Land Use Change and environmental impact
Journal of Environmental Management, 2004Co-Authors: A. Veldkamp, Peter H. VerburgAbstract:Abstract Land Use Change models are tools for understanding and explaining the caUses and consequences of Land Use dynamics. Recently, new models, combining knowledge and tools from biophysical and socio-economic sciences, have become available. This has resulted in spatially explicit models focussed on patterns of Change as well as agent-based models focUsed on the underlying decision processes. These developments improve the Use of Land Use Change models in environmental impact studies. This special issue documents these developments: (i) analysing the system properties in a biophysical and socio-economic context at multiple scales; (ii) integrating spatially explicit Land Use Change models in integrated assessment models; (iii) visualising and quantifying the potential effects of Land Use Change in trade-off curves, to support Land Users and policy makers in their decisions; and (iv) modelling of the actual decision making process with agent-based modelling. A new promising future development is the incorporation of dynamic feedbacks between changing Land Use and changing environmental conditions and vice versa. Unfortunately such dynamic feedbacks between the socio-economic and biophysical model components are still not or only partially operational in current models and are therefore the most important challenge for Land Use and environmental modellers.
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Determinants of Land-Use Change Patterns in the NetherLands:
Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design, 2004Co-Authors: Peter H. Verburg, Jan R Ritsema Van Eck, Ton De Nijs, Martin Dijst, Paul SchotAbstract:Land-Use-Change patterns are the result of the complex interaction between the human and the physical environment. Case studies of the determinants of Land-Use Change can help to analyse which theory is appropriate in a particular region and stimulate the development of new theoretic understandings. In this paper an empirical method is presented to analyse the pattern of Land-Use Change that allows a wide range of factors, from different disciplines, to contribute to the explanation of Land-Use Change. The method is applied to the NetherLands, based on an extensive database of Land-Use Change and its potential determinants. Historic as well as recent Land-Use Changes are studied. Historic Land-Use Change is related mainly to the variation in the biophysical environment. Levels of explanation are low becaUse of the inability to address the temporal variation in location factors. For the recent Changes in Land Use high levels of explanation are obtained. The most important Changes during this period are exp...
David Levinson - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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predicting Land Use Change how much does transportation matter
Transportation Research Record, 2009Co-Authors: Michael Iacono, David LevinsonAbstract:This paper proposes to measure the extent of the influence of transportation systems on Land Use Change. With a set of high-resolution Land Use data for the Twin Cities, Minnesota, metropolitan region, logistic regression models of Land Use Change are estimated for a 10-year period from 1990 to 2000. The models account for existing Land Use types, neighboring Land Uses, and transportation network variables that measure the physical proximity of highway networks, as well as the level of accessibility associated with a specific location. The models are estimated with and without the transportation variables and compared to assess the extent of their influence. Transportation-related variables exert some influence on Changes to Land Use patterns, though not as much as variables representing existing and neighboring Land Uses.
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predicting Land Use Change how much does transportation matter
Research Papers in Economics, 2008Co-Authors: Michael Iacono, David LevinsonAbstract:In this paper, we propose to measure the extent of the influence of transportation systems on Land Use Change. Using a set of high-resolution Land Use data for the Twin Cities metropolitan region, we estimate logistic regression models of Land Use Change covering a 10-year period from 1990 to 2000. The models account for existing Land Use types, neighboring Land Uses, and transportation network variables that measure the physical proximity of highway networks, as well as the level of accessibility associated with a specific location. The models are estimated with and without the transportation variables and compared to assess the extent of their influence. We find (perhaps not surprisingly) that transportation-related variables exert some influence on Changes to Land Use patterns, though not as much as variables representing existing and neighboring Land Uses.
Mark Rounsevell - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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applying occam s razor to global agricultural Land Use Change
Environmental Modelling and Software, 2016Co-Authors: Kerstin Engstrom, Mark Rounsevell, Dave Murrayrust, Catherine J Hardacre, Peter Alexander, Xufeng Cui, Paul I Palmer, Almut ArnethAbstract:We present a parsimonious agricultural Land-Use model that is designed to replicate global Land-Use Change while allowing the exploration of uncertainties in input parameters. At the global scale, the modelled uncertainty range of agricultural Land-Use Change covers observed Land-Use Change. Spatial patterns of cropLand Change at the country level are simulated less satisfactorily, but temporal trends of cropLand Change in large agricultural nations were replicated by the model. A variance-based global sensitivity analysis showed that uncertainties in the input parameters representing to consumption preferences are important for Changes in global agricultural areas. However, uncertainties in technological Change had the largest effect on cereal yields and Changes in global agricultural area. Uncertainties related to technological Change in developing countries were most important for modelling the extent of cropLand. The performance of the model suggests that highly generalised representations of socio-economic processes can be Used to replicate global Land-Use Change. The complexity of global agricultural LUC can be represented with simple processes.The approach allows efficient exploration of the parameter uncertainty range.Changes in cereal yields in developing countries are an essential driver of LUC.
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Land Use Change arising from rural Land exChange an agent based simulation model
Landscape Ecology, 2015Co-Authors: M M Bakker, Shah Jamal Alam, Jerry Van Dijk, Mark RounsevellAbstract:Introduction Land exChange can be a major factor driving Land-Use Change in regions with high pressure on Land, but is generally not incorporated in Land-Use Change models. Here we present an agent-based model to simulate Land-Use Change arising from Land exChange between multiple agent types representing farmers, nature organizations, and estate owners. Methods The RULEX model (Rural Land EXChange) was calibrated and applied to a 300 km 2 case study area in the east of the NetherLands. Decision rules about which actor will sell and buy Land, as well as which specific Land to buy or sell are based on historical observations, interviews, and choice experiments. Results A reconstruction of Land-Use Change for the period 2001‐2009 demonstrates that RULEX reproduces most observed Land-Use trends and patterns. Given that RULEX simulates only one mechanism of Land-Use Change, i.e. Land exChange, it is conservative in simulating Change. Conclusions With this model, we demonstrate the potential of incorporating Land market processes in an agent-based, Land-Use Change model. This supports understanding of Land-Use Change that is brought about by ownership Change, which is an important process in areas where pressure on Land is high. The soundness of the process representation was corroborated by stakeholders within the study area. Land exChange models can be Used to assess the impact of Changes in climate, markets, and policy on Land Use Change, and help to increase effectiveness of alternative Land purchasing strategies by stakeholders or spatial planning policy.
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a coherent set of future Land Use Change scenarios for europe
Agriculture Ecosystems & Environment, 2006Co-Authors: Mark Rounsevell, Isabelle Reginster, Miguel B Araujo, Timothy R Carter, Nicolas Dendoncker, Frank Ewert, Joanna Isobel House, Susanna Kankaanpaa, Rik Leemans, Marc J MetzgerAbstract:This paper presents a range of future, spatially explicit, Land Use Change scenarios for the EU15, Norway and SwitzerLand based on an interpretation of the global storylines of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) that are presented in the special report on emissions scenarios (SRES). The methodology is based on a qualitative interpretation of the SRES storylines for the European region, an estimation of the aggregate totals of Land Use Change using various Land Use Change models and the allocation of these aggregate quantities in space using spatially explicit rules. The spatial patterns are further downscaled from a resolution of 10 min to 250 m using statistical downscaling procedures. The scenarios include the major Land Use/Land cover classes urban, cropLand, grassLand and forest Land as well as introducing new Land Use classes such as bioenergy crops. The scenario Changes are most striking for the agricultural Land Uses. with large area declines resulting from assumptions about future crop yield development with respect to Changes in the demand for agricultural commodities. Abandoned agricultural Land is a consequence of these assumptions. Increases in urban areas (arising from population and economic Change) are similar for each scenario, but the spatial patterns are very different. This reflects alternative assumptions about urban development processes. Forest Land areas increase in all scenarios, although such Changes will occur slowly and largely reflect assumed policy objectives. The scenarios also consider Changes in protected areas (for conservation or recreation goals) and how these might provide a break on future Land Use Change. The approach to estimate new protected areas is based in part on the Use of models of species distribution and richness. All scenarios assume some increases in the area of bioenergy crops with some scenarios assuming a major development of this new Land Use. Several technical and conceptual difficulties in developing future Land Use Change scenarios are discussed. These include the problems of the subjective nature of qualitative interpretations, the Land Use Change models Used in scenario development, the problem of validating future Change scenarios, the quality of the observed baseline, and statistical downscaling techniques. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Michael Iacono - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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predicting Land Use Change how much does transportation matter
Transportation Research Record, 2009Co-Authors: Michael Iacono, David LevinsonAbstract:This paper proposes to measure the extent of the influence of transportation systems on Land Use Change. With a set of high-resolution Land Use data for the Twin Cities, Minnesota, metropolitan region, logistic regression models of Land Use Change are estimated for a 10-year period from 1990 to 2000. The models account for existing Land Use types, neighboring Land Uses, and transportation network variables that measure the physical proximity of highway networks, as well as the level of accessibility associated with a specific location. The models are estimated with and without the transportation variables and compared to assess the extent of their influence. Transportation-related variables exert some influence on Changes to Land Use patterns, though not as much as variables representing existing and neighboring Land Uses.
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predicting Land Use Change how much does transportation matter
Research Papers in Economics, 2008Co-Authors: Michael Iacono, David LevinsonAbstract:In this paper, we propose to measure the extent of the influence of transportation systems on Land Use Change. Using a set of high-resolution Land Use data for the Twin Cities metropolitan region, we estimate logistic regression models of Land Use Change covering a 10-year period from 1990 to 2000. The models account for existing Land Use types, neighboring Land Uses, and transportation network variables that measure the physical proximity of highway networks, as well as the level of accessibility associated with a specific location. The models are estimated with and without the transportation variables and compared to assess the extent of their influence. We find (perhaps not surprisingly) that transportation-related variables exert some influence on Changes to Land Use patterns, though not as much as variables representing existing and neighboring Land Uses.
Richard A. Houghton - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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effects of Land Use Change on the carbon balance of terrestrial ecosystems
Geophysical monograph, 2013Co-Authors: Richard A. Houghton, Christine L. GoodaleAbstract:Most Changes in Land Use affect the amount of carbon held in vegetation and soil, thereby, either releasing carbon dioxide (a greenhoUse gas) to, or removing it from, the atmosphere. The greatest fluxes of carbon result from conversion of forests to open Lands (and vice versa). Model-based estimates of the flux of carbon attributable to Land-Use Change are highly variable, however, largely as a result of uncertainties in the areas annually affected by different types of Land-Use Change. Uncertain rates of tropical deforestation, for example, account for more than half of the range in estimates of the global carbon flux. Three other factors account for much of the rest of the uncertainty: (1) the initial stocks of carbon in ecosystems affected by Land-Use Change (i.e., spatial heterogeneity), (2) per hectare Changes in carbon stocks in response to different types of Land-Use Change, and (3) legacy effects; that is, the time it takes for carbon stocks to equilibrate following a Change in Land Use. For the tropics, recent satellite-based estimates of deforestation are lower than previous estimates and yield calculated carbon emissions from Land-Use Change that are similar to independently-derived estimates of the total net flux for the region. The similarity suggests that Changes in Land Use account for the net flux of carbon from the tropics. For the northern mid-latitudes, the carbon sink attributed to Land-Use Change is less than the sink obtained by other methods, suggesting either an incomplete accounting of Land-Use Change or the importance of other factors in explaining the current carbon sink in that region.
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Ecosystems and Land Use Change - Effects of Land‐Use Change on the Carbon Balance of Terrestrial Ecosystems
Ecosystems and Land Use Change, 2004Co-Authors: Richard A. Houghton, Christine L. GoodaleAbstract:Most Changes in Land Use affect the amount of carbon held in vegetation and soil, thereby, either releasing carbon dioxide (a greenhoUse gas) to, or removing it from, the atmosphere. The greatest fluxes of carbon result from conversion of forests to open Lands (and vice versa). Model-based estimates of the flux of carbon attributable to Land-Use Change are highly variable, however, largely as a result of uncertainties in the areas annually affected by different types of Land-Use Change. Uncertain rates of tropical deforestation, for example, account for more than half of the range in estimates of the global carbon flux. Three other factors account for much of the rest of the uncertainty: (1) the initial stocks of carbon in ecosystems affected by Land-Use Change (i.e., spatial heterogeneity), (2) per hectare Changes in carbon stocks in response to different types of Land-Use Change, and (3) legacy effects; that is, the time it takes for carbon stocks to equilibrate following a Change in Land Use. For the tropics, recent satellite-based estimates of deforestation are lower than previous estimates and yield calculated carbon emissions from Land-Use Change that are similar to independently-derived estimates of the total net flux for the region. The similarity suggests that Changes in Land Use account for the net flux of carbon from the tropics. For the northern mid-latitudes, the carbon sink attributed to Land-Use Change is less than the sink obtained by other methods, suggesting either an incomplete accounting of Land-Use Change or the importance of other factors in explaining the current carbon sink in that region.
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Land Use, Land-Use Change, and Forestry
2000Co-Authors: Ian R. Noble, Richard A. Houghton, Michael J. Apps, Daniel A. Lashof, Willy Makundi, Daniel Murdiyarso, Brad Murray, Wim Sombroek, Riccardo Valentini, Masahiro AmanoAbstract:Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry includes research from selected international authors and institutions that consider Land Use management to be an important aspect in the context of climate Change and development. Our team of editors and authors hope to add a valuable contribution to the literature to address global climate Change in relation to agricultural-forestry ecosystems and development in vulnerable locations. Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry book chapters include a wide variety of topics on Changes in Land Use practices, carbon sequestration, forest degradation, as well as polices that affect Land Use and development. It also includes a description of the current state of Land Use, Land-Use Change and forestry in South Asian countries (Chapter 1); an evaluation of biodiversity and peoples' willingness to pay (Chapter 2); modelling of carbon sequestration in forests (Chapter 3); trade-off analysis in economic and environmental objectives (Chapter 4); Use of radar imagery in detecting forest degradation (Chapter 5); assessment of carbon sequestration in woodlots (Chapter 6); solutions for improved survival of ruminants in arid and semi-arid environments and associated carbon sequestration (Chapter 7); policy interventions for Land Use Changes (Chapter 8); accomplishing Land Use Change from subsistence to commercial farming in Mozambique (Chapter 9); and an international and multi-sectoral approach for partnering to achieve positive agricultural developmental Land Use Change (Chapter 10). Our team of editors, reviewers, and authors are honored to be part of this project; truly an example of international cooperation and articulation within the climate Change community. The chapters and authors of Land Use, Land-Use and Forestry were carefully selected through a rigorous peer review process considering publication records, relevant and high quality contributions to this topic, and priming international cooperation. For this book and its contents, the intended audience includes the international climate Change community including: contributors to the UNFCCC-IPCC process, policymakers, consultants, project developers, researchers and their institutions. Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry aims to be a valuable addition to multidisciplinary and international cooperation efforts (policies, cultural practices, new technologies, and adaptation measures), to development of Land Use policies, governmental and nongovernmental agencies worldwide and the general public. The editors of Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry believe the book is an effective tool to help the international community progress in understanding and management of Land Use Changes in addressing climate Change through international collaboration and cooperation.
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The worldwide extent of Land-Use Change
BioScience, 1994Co-Authors: Richard A. HoughtonAbstract:In the last few centuries, particularly the last several decades, the effects of Land Use Change have become global. These global Changes are not only Changes in Land Use and direct effects, but also in the contribution to global Changes in climate through increasing greenhoUse gas emission. Land Use Change can be considered from two perspectives: the intended and the unintended effects. The question is where the balance of managed and natural systems lies. This article reviews the extent of Land Use Change over the surface of the earth in four intervals of time: the last several millennia, the last century, the last decade, and the next several decades. Discussion focUses on the global extent of Land Use Change with the emphasis on forest and deforestation. 35 refs., 6 figs., 1 tab.
