The Experts below are selected from a list of 202461 Experts worldwide ranked by ideXlab platform
Bob Van Der Zwaan - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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an Integrated Assessment of climate change air pollution and energy security policy
Energy Policy, 2010Co-Authors: Johannes Bollen, Sebastiaan Hers, Bob Van Der ZwaanAbstract:Abstract This article presents an Integrated Assessment of climate change, air pollution, and energy security policy. Basis of our analysis is the MERGE model, designed to study the interaction between the global economy, energy use, and the impacts of climate change. For our purposes we expanded MERGE with expressions that quantify damages incurred to regional economies as a result of air pollution and lack of energy security. One of the main findings of our cost–benefit analysis is that energy security policy alone does not decrease the use of oil: global oil consumption is only delayed by several decades and oil reserves are still practically depleted before the end of the 21st century. If, on the other hand, energy security policy is Integrated with optimal climate change and air pollution policy, the world’s oil reserves will not be depleted, at least not before our modeling horizon well into the 22nd century: total cumulative demand for oil decreases by about 24%. More generally, we demonstrate that there are multiple other benefits of combining climate change, air pollution, and energy security policies and exploiting the possible synergies between them. These benefits can be large: for Europe the achievable CO 2 emission abatement and oil consumption reduction levels are significantly deeper for Integrated policy than when a strategy is adopted in which one of the three policies is omitted. Integrated optimal energy policy can reduce the number of premature deaths from air pollution by about 14,000 annually in Europe and over 3 million per year globally, by lowering the chronic exposure to ambient particulate matter. Only the optimal strategy combining the three types of energy policy can constrain the global average atmospheric temperature increase to a limit of 3 °C with respect to the pre-industrial level.
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an Integrated Assessment of climate change air pollution and energy security policy
2009Co-Authors: Johannes Bollen, Sebastiaan Hers, Bob Van Der ZwaanAbstract:This article presents an Integrated Assessment of climate change, air pollution, and energy security policy. Basis of our analysis is the MERGE model, designed to study the interaction between the global economy, energy use, and the impacts of climate change. For our purposes we expanded MERGE with expressions that quantify damages incurred to regional economies as a result of air pollution and lack of energy security. One of the main findings of our cost-benefit analysis is that energy security policy alone does not decrease the use of oil: global oil consumption is only delayed by several decades and oil reserves are still practically depleted before the end of the 21st century. If, on the other hand, energy security policy is Integrated with optimal climate change and air pollution policy, the world’s oil reserves will not be depleted, at least not before our modeling horizon well into the 22nd century: total cumulative demand for oil then decreases by about 20%. More generally, we demonstrate that there are multiple other benefits of combining climate change, air pollution, and energy security policies and exploiting the possible synergies between them. These benefits can be large: for Europe the achievable CO2 emission abatement and oil consumption reduction levels are significantly deeper for Integrated policy than when a strategy is adopted in which one of the three policies is omitted. Integrated optimal energy policy can reduce the number of premature deaths from air pollution by about 14,000 annually in Europe and over 3 million per year globally, by lowering the chronic exposure to ambient particulate matter. Only the optimal strategy combining the three types of energy policy can constrain the global average atmospheric temperature increase to a limit of 3oC with respect to the pre-industrial level.
Serpil Kayin - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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addressing uncertainty in environmental modelling a case study of Integrated Assessment of strategies to combat long range transboundary air pollution
Atmospheric Environment, 2002Co-Authors: H M Apsimon, Rachel Warren, Serpil KayinAbstract:Abstract Model development and testing tend to concentrate on how well models represent “reality” or reproduce measurements. However, there are many sources of uncertainty in modelling atmospheric pollution, and those responsible for decisions on abatement strategies need to use modelled scenarios without fear that inaccuracies and assumptions in the modelling may mislead them. This paper explores how techniques from risk Assessment may be used to examine a modelling study systematically. Those assumptions and uncertainties which could have significant consequences, whether arising from data used, the modelling itself, or factors omitted and incompleteness, may be identified using hazard and operability studies. This helps to target supporting studies—possibly using more complex models, or Monte Carlo uncertainty analysis; and to indicate potential implications to the decision makers. As a case study we have used work undertaken on uncertainties with the Abatement Strategies Assessment Model for the task force on Integrated Assessment modelling under the convention on long-range transboundary air pollution of the UN Economic Commission for Europe.
Rachel Warren - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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development and illustrative outputs of the community Integrated Assessment system cias a multi institutional modular Integrated Assessment approach for modelling climate change
Environmental Modelling and Software, 2008Co-Authors: Rachel Warren, S De La Nava Santos, Nigel W Arnell, Michael Bane, Terry Barker, C Barton, Rupert W Ford, Hansmartin Fussel, Robin K S Hankin, Rupert KleinAbstract:This paper describes the development and first results of the ''Community Integrated Assessment System'' (CIAS), a unique multi-institutional modular and flexible Integrated Assessment system for modelling climate change. Key to this development is the supporting software infrastructure, SoftIAM. Through it, CIAS is distributed between the communities of institutions which has each contributed modules to the CIAS system. At the heart of SoftIAM is the Bespoke Framework Generator (BFG) which enables flexibility in the assembly and composition of individual modules from a pool to form coupled models within CIAS, and flexibility in their deployment onto the available software and hardware resources. Such flexibility greatly enhances modellers' ability to re-configure the CIAS coupled models to answer different questions, thus tracking evolving policy needs. It also allows rigorous testing of the robustness of IA modelling results to the use of different component modules representing the same processes (for example, the economy). Such processes are often modelled in very different ways, using different paradigms, at the participating institutions. An illustrative application to the study of the relationship between the economy and the earth's climate system is provided.
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the uk Integrated Assessment model ukiam a national scale approach to the analysis of strategies for abatement of atmospheric pollutants under the convention on long range transboundary air pollution
Integrated Assessment, 2004Co-Authors: Tim Oxley, Anthony J. Dore, M A Sutton, H M Apsimon, Jane Hall, E Heywood, Gonzales T Del Campo, Rachel WarrenAbstract:Integrated Assessment modelling aims to bring together information on emissions, atmospheric transport between sources and exposed areas or populations, criteria for environmental protection, and potential emission control measures and their costs, in order to explore effective abatement strategies. We describe the development of a new UK scale Integrated Assessment Model which can be used to investigate strategies for the attainment of national emission ceilings. The model optimises abatement strategies in relation to acidification, eutrophication, and/or human-exposure to particulate PM10, with reference to the deposition of sulphur and nitrogen (oxidised and reduced), and concentrations of primary and secondary particles. The model combines sector specific emissions, atmospheric transport and deposition, ecosystem specific critical load exceedances, and pollution abatement costs to determine optimised abatement strategies using benefit and, where applicable, recovery functions.
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addressing uncertainty in environmental modelling a case study of Integrated Assessment of strategies to combat long range transboundary air pollution
Atmospheric Environment, 2002Co-Authors: H M Apsimon, Rachel Warren, Serpil KayinAbstract:Abstract Model development and testing tend to concentrate on how well models represent “reality” or reproduce measurements. However, there are many sources of uncertainty in modelling atmospheric pollution, and those responsible for decisions on abatement strategies need to use modelled scenarios without fear that inaccuracies and assumptions in the modelling may mislead them. This paper explores how techniques from risk Assessment may be used to examine a modelling study systematically. Those assumptions and uncertainties which could have significant consequences, whether arising from data used, the modelling itself, or factors omitted and incompleteness, may be identified using hazard and operability studies. This helps to target supporting studies—possibly using more complex models, or Monte Carlo uncertainty analysis; and to indicate potential implications to the decision makers. As a case study we have used work undertaken on uncertainties with the Abatement Strategies Assessment Model for the task force on Integrated Assessment modelling under the convention on long-range transboundary air pollution of the UN Economic Commission for Europe.
Frank Ewert - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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Crop modelling for Integrated Assessment of risk to food production from climate change
Environmental Modelling and Software, 2015Co-Authors: Frank Ewert, Kurt Christian Kersebaum, Martin K Van Ittersum, Marco Bindi, Heidi Webber, Reimund P. Rötter, Jorgen E Olesen, Miroslav Trnka, Sander Janssen, Mike RivingtonAbstract:The complexity of risks posed by climate change and possible adaptations for crop production has called for Integrated Assessment and modelling (IAM) approaches linking biophysical and economic models. This paper attempts to provide an overview of the present state of crop modelling to assess climate change risks to food production and to which extent crop models comply with IAM demands. Considerable progress has been made in modelling effects of climate variables, where crop models best satisfy IAM demands. Demands are partly satisfied for simulating commonly required Assessment variables. However, progress on the number of simulated crops, uncertainty propagation related to model parameters and structure, adaptations and scaling are less advanced and lagging behind IAM demands. The limitations are considered substantial and apply to a different extent to all crop models. Overcoming these limitations will require joint efforts, and consideration of novel modelling approaches. Extreme events and future climate uncertainty represent risk for food production.Crop models are largely able to simulate crop response to climate factors.Adaptations are best evaluated in Integrated Assessment models (IAM).Key limitations for crop models in IAM are low data availability and integration.Cross-scale nature of IAM suggests novel modelling approaches are needed.
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scale changes and model linking methods for Integrated Assessment of agri environmental systems
Agriculture Ecosystems & Environment, 2011Co-Authors: Frank Ewert, Martin K Van Ittersum, Thomas Heckelei, Olivier Therond, I Bezlepkina, Erling AndersenAbstract:Agricultural systems and problems of sustainability are complex, covering a range of organisational levels and spatial and temporal scales. Integrated Assessment (IA) and modelling (IAM) is an attempt to capture complex multi-scale problems. Scale changes and model linking methods (referred to as scaling methods) are important in dealing with these problems but they are often not well understood. The present study aims to analyse scaling methods used in the recently developed multi-scale IA model SEAMLESS-IF which is applied to two case studies of complex agri-environmental problems. The analysis is based on a classification of up- and down-scaling methods which is extended for the purpose of this study. Our analysis shows that scale changes refer to different spatial, temporal and functional scales with changes in extent, resolution, and coverage rate. Accordingly, SEAMLESS-IF uses a number of different scaling methods including data extrapolation, aggregation and disaggregation, sampling, nested simulation and employs descriptive response functions and technical coefficients derived from explanatory models. Despite the satisfactory results obtained from SEAMLESS-IF, a comparative quantitative analysis of alternative scaling methods is still pending and requires further attention. Improved integration of scaling methods may also help to overcome limitations of IA models related to high data demand, complexity of models and scaling methods considered, and the accumulation of uncertainty due to the use of multiple models. In the case studies, the most challenging scaling problem refers to the appropriate consideration of the farm level as intermediate level between the field and market levels. Among the scaling methods analysed, summary models are hardly applied. This is because they are often unavailable due to limited systems understanding and because they may differ depending on the question at stake. The classification of scaling methods used has been helpful to structure this analysis.
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a goal oriented indicator framework to support Integrated Assessment of new policies for agri environmental systems
Environmental Science & Policy, 2009Co-Authors: Johanna Alkan Olsson, Frank Ewert, Christian Bockstaller, Lee Stapleton, Rob Knapen, Olivier Therond, Ghislain Geniaux, Stephane Bellon, Teresa Pinto CorreiraAbstract:The goal oriented framework (GOF) for indicators has been developed as part of a comprehensive research project developing computerised tools for Integrated Assessment of the effects of new policies or technologies on agricultural systems (SEAMLESS-IF). The ambition has therefore been to create an indicator framework where the environmental, economic and social dimensions of sustainable development can be related to each other in a consistent way. Integrated Assessment tools rely on such frameworks to capture and visualise trade-offs (antagonisms or synergies) among indicators between and within the three dimensions of sustainable development. The specific aims of this paper are to (i) present the GOF (ii) present how the GOF can be used to select indicators within the Integrated Assessment framework SEAMLESS-IF and (iii) discuss the advantages and limitations with the proposed approach. We show that the GOF has several advantages. Its major rewards are its relative simplicity and the possibility to link indicators to policy goals of each dimension of sustainability and thereby facilitate the comparison of the impacts of the new policy on the different dimensions. Another important feature of the GOF is its multi-scale perspective, which will enable the comparison of effects of a new policy between scales. Yet, as typical for all indicator frameworks, the GOF has also biases either instigated by the issues the included models cover or by the stakeholders' selection of indicators. However, due to the way the GOF and its indicators are technically implemented in SEAMLESS-IF, it can easily be extended and include new indicators to increase and update its policy relevance. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Integrated Assessment of agricultural systems a component based framework for the european union seamless
Agricultural Systems, 2008Co-Authors: Martin K Van Ittersum, Frank Ewert, Thomas Heckelei, Jacques Wery, Johanna Alkan Olsson, Erling Andersen, Irina V Bezlepkina, Floor Brouwer, Marcello Donatelli, G FlichmanAbstract:Abstract Agricultural systems continuously evolve and are forced to change as a result of a range of global and local driving forces. Agricultural technologies and agricultural, environmental and rural development policies are increasingly designed to contribute to the sustainability of agricultural systems and to enhance contributions of agricultural systems to sustainable development at large. The effectiveness and efficiency of such policies and technological developments in realizing desired contributions could be greatly enhanced if the quality of their ex-ante Assessments were improved. Four key challenges and requirements to make research tools more useful for Integrated Assessment in the European Union were defined in interactions between scientists and the European Commission (EC), i.e., overcoming the gap between micro–macro level analysis, the bias in Integrated Assessments towards either economic or environmental issues, the poor re-use of models and hindrances in technical linkage of models. Tools for Integrated Assessment must have multi-scale capabilities and preferably be generic and flexible such that they can deal with a broad variety of policy questions. At the same time, to be useful for scientists, the framework must facilitate state-of-the-art science both on aspects of the agricultural systems and on integration. This paper presents the rationale, design and illustration of a component-based framework for agricultural systems (SEAMLESS Integrated Framework) to assess, ex-ante, agricultural and agri-environmental policies and technologies across a range of scales, from field–farm to region and European Union, as well as some global interactions. We have opted for a framework to link individual model and data components and a software infrastructure that allows a flexible (re-)use and linkage of components. The paper outlines the software infrastructure, indicators and model and data components. The illustrative example assesses effects of a trade liberalisation proposal on EU’s agriculture and indicates how SEAMLESS addresses the four identified challenges for Integrated Assessment tools, i.e., linking micro and macro analysis, assessing economic, environmental, social and institutional indicators, (re-)using standalone model components for field, farm and market analysis and their conceptual and technical linkage.
Edgar G Hertwich - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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deriving life cycle Assessment coefficients for application in Integrated Assessment modelling
Environmental Modelling and Software, 2018Co-Authors: Anders Arvesen, Edgar G Hertwich, Gunnar Luderer, Michaja Pehl, Benjamin Leon BodirskyAbstract:Abstract The fields of life cycle Assessment (LCA) and Integrated Assessment (IA) modelling today have similar interests in assessing macro-level transformation pathways with a broad view of environmental concerns. Prevailing IA models lack a life cycle perspective, while LCA has traditionally been static- and micro-oriented. We develop a general method for deriving coefficients from detailed, bottom-up LCA suitable for application in IA models, thus allowing IA analysts to explore the life cycle impacts of technology and scenario alternatives. The method decomposes LCA coefficients into life cycle phases and energy carrier use by industries, thus facilitating attribution of life cycle effects to appropriate years, and consistent and comprehensive use of IA model-specific scenario data when the LCA coefficients are applied in IA scenario modelling. We demonstrate the application of the method for global electricity supply to 2050 and provide numerical results (as supplementary material) for future use by IA analysts.
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industrial ecology in Integrated Assessment models
Nature Climate Change, 2017Co-Authors: Stefan Pauliuk, Anders Arvesen, Konstantin Stadler, Edgar G HertwichAbstract:An in-depth review of five major Integrated Assessment models from an industrial ecology perspective reveals differences between the fields regarding the modelling of linkages in the industrial system. Technology-rich Integrated Assessment models (IAMs) address possible technology mixes and future costs of climate change mitigation by generating scenarios for the future industrial system. Industrial ecology (IE) focuses on the empirical analysis of this system. We conduct an in-depth review of five major IAMs from an IE perspective and reveal differences between the two fields regarding the modelling of linkages in the industrial system, focussing on AIM/CGE, GCAM, IMAGE, MESSAGE, and REMIND. IAMs ignore material cycles and recycling, incoherently describe the life-cycle impacts of technology, and miss linkages regarding buildings and infrastructure. Adding IE system linkages to IAMs adds new constraints and allows for studying new mitigation options, both of which may lead to more robust and policy-relevant mitigation scenarios.
