The Experts below are selected from a list of 198 Experts worldwide ranked by ideXlab platform
Dragan Miljkovic - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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us and canadian Livestock Prices market integration and trade dependence
Applied Economics, 2009Co-Authors: Dragan MiljkovicAbstract:Cointegration of Canadian and US Livestock Prices points to the existence of market integration in the period January 1996 to December 2004. Trade flows of Livestock and beef products were nonexistent between Canada and the United States for many months in 2003 and 2004 suggesting market segmentation. This lack of trade in beef and Livestock was due to Livestock/beef import bans by both countries due to bovine spongiform encephalopathy. It was also determined that Canada's trade dependence in Livestock and beef is cointegrated with Canadian and US Livestock Prices. However, as the trade dependence variable is shocked, the effects on Canadian and US Prices are opposite although one would expect that in an integrated market the price responses to an exogenous shock would be similar or statistically identical. This result reinforces the case against the use of price cointegration analysis in determining presence (or absence) of market integration. Empirical results in this article raise some very difficult questions. Gains from trade are well documented. Yet, once a country becomes very trade dependent, the Prices in it become much more vulnerable to exogenous shocks that reduce the trade flows.
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u s and canadian Livestock Prices market integration and trade dependence
2006 Annual meeting July 23-26 Long Beach CA, 2006Co-Authors: Dragan MiljkovicAbstract:Cointegration of Canadian and U.S. Livestock Prices points to the existence of market integration in the period 1996:1 to 2004:12 even though the trade flows of Livestock and beef products were non-existent for many months in 2003 and 2004 (suggesting market segmentation) due to Livestock/beef import bans by both countries due to BSE. It was also determined that Canada's trade dependence in Livestock and beef is cointegrated with Canadian and U.S. Livestock Prices. However, as the trade dependence variable is shocked, the effects on Canadian and U.S. Prices are opposite although one would expect that in an integrated market the price responses to an exogenous shock would be similar or statistically identical. This result reinforces the case against the use of cointegration in determining presence (or absence) of market integration. Empirical results in this article raise some very difficult questions. Gains from trade are well documented. Yet, once a country is very trade dependent, the Prices in it are much more vulnerable to exogenous shocks that reduce the trade flows. Canadian Livestock Prices plummeted and stayed low following the BSE incident and U.S. (and Japanese) import bans on Canadian Livestock and beef. Given the long cycles and high sunk cost in the Livestock and beef industry, immediate adjustment (reduction in production) for Canadian producers was difficult and always unlikely. Moreover, the possibility of import bans being lifted in the near future may have further shaped their expectations and prolonged the decisions on herd reduction. In the meanwhile, U.S. Prices increased following Canada's trade dependence shock due to BSE and remained above the original long-run equilibrium price.
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effects of japanese import demand on u s Livestock Prices reply
Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, 2004Co-Authors: Dragan Miljkovic, John M Marsh, Gary W BresterAbstract:In responding to a comment article, we concur that quantifying U.S. Livestock price response to changing Japanese met import demand requires nonzero supply elasticities beyond one quarter. However, rigidities in market trade and empirical tests justify the inclusion of exchange rates in the short-run analysis. Producer welfare asymptotically approaches zero for increasing supply elasticities in the long run, but short-run transitions in producer surplus are meaningful to producers.
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japanese import demand for u s beef and pork effects on u s red meat exports and Livestock Prices
Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, 2002Co-Authors: Dragan Miljkovic, John M Marsh, Gary W BresterAbstract:Japanese import demand for U.S. beef and pork products and the effects on domestic Livestock Prices are econometrically estimated. Japan is the most important export market for U.S. beef and pork products. Results indicate foreign income, exchange rates, and protectionist measures are statistically significant. The comparative statistics quantify the effects of recent economic volatility. For example, the 1995-1998 depreciation in the Japanese yen (39%) reduced U.S. slaughter steer and hog Prices by $1.29 per cwt and $0.99 per cwt, respectively, while the 1994-1998 reduction in tariffs (14%) increased slaughter steer and hog Prices by $0.49 per cwt and $0.33 per cwt, respectively. Livestock producers will continue to have a vested interest in Asian trade liberalization policies.
Gary W Brester - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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Distributional Impacts of Country-of-Origin Labeling in the U.S. Meat Industry
Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, 2004Co-Authors: Gary W Brester, John M Marsh, Joseph A. AtwoodAbstract:Concerns about the negative effects of U.S. meat and Livestock imports on domestic Livestock Prices have increased interest in country-of origin labeling (COOL) legislation. An equilibrium displacement model is used to estimate short-run and long-run changes in equilibrium Prices and quantities of meat and Livestock in the beef, pork, and poultry sectors resulting from the implementation of COOL. Retail beef and pork demand would have to experience a one-time, permanent increase of 4.05% and 4.45%, respectively, so that feeder cattle and hog producers do not lose producer surplus over a 10-year period.
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Wholesale-Retail Marketing Margin Behavior in the Beef and Pork Industries
Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, 2004Co-Authors: John M Marsh, Gary W BresterAbstract:An econometric model is used to estimate real wholesale-retail marketing margins for beef and pork. From 1970 to 1998, these margins increased by 27% and 149%, while farm-wholesale margins declined. Wholesale-retail (WR) marketing margin increases have caused Livestock producers to focus on the retail sector as a contributor to declining real Livestock Prices. Increases in WR margins may be related to increased demand and costs of value-added food products/services as well as increased market concentration in the retail grocery sector. Results indicate that retail factors, and to a lesser extent meat processing factors, significantly increased WR margins and decreased Livestock Prices.
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effects of japanese import demand on u s Livestock Prices reply
Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, 2004Co-Authors: Dragan Miljkovic, John M Marsh, Gary W BresterAbstract:In responding to a comment article, we concur that quantifying U.S. Livestock price response to changing Japanese met import demand requires nonzero supply elasticities beyond one quarter. However, rigidities in market trade and empirical tests justify the inclusion of exchange rates in the short-run analysis. Producer welfare asymptotically approaches zero for increasing supply elasticities in the long run, but short-run transitions in producer surplus are meaningful to producers.
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japanese import demand for u s beef and pork effects on u s red meat exports and Livestock Prices
Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, 2002Co-Authors: Dragan Miljkovic, John M Marsh, Gary W BresterAbstract:Japanese import demand for U.S. beef and pork products and the effects on domestic Livestock Prices are econometrically estimated. Japan is the most important export market for U.S. beef and pork products. Results indicate foreign income, exchange rates, and protectionist measures are statistically significant. The comparative statistics quantify the effects of recent economic volatility. For example, the 1995-1998 depreciation in the Japanese yen (39%) reduced U.S. slaughter steer and hog Prices by $1.29 per cwt and $0.99 per cwt, respectively, while the 1994-1998 reduction in tariffs (14%) increased slaughter steer and hog Prices by $0.49 per cwt and $0.33 per cwt, respectively. Livestock producers will continue to have a vested interest in Asian trade liberalization policies.
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the effects of u s meat packing and Livestock production technologies on marketing margins and Prices
Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, 2001Co-Authors: Gary W Brester, John M MarshAbstract:Real Livestock Prices and farm-wholesale marketing margins have steadily declined over the past 20 years. Studies examining the causes of these declines have generally failed to account directly for technological change in Livestock production and red meat slaughtering. We estimate reduced-form models for beef and pork farm-wholesale marketing margins and cattle and hog Prices that include specific measures of technological change. Empirical results indicate cost savings generated by improved meat packing technologies have reduced real margins and positively influenced real cattle and hog Prices. However, technological change embodied in cattle production weights has led to substantial declines in real slaughter cattle Prices. Nonetheless, the net effect of improved meat packing technology has been to increase cattle price by $1.75/cwt and reduce the farm-wholesale beef marketing margin by 22.8 cents/lb.
Rik Leemans - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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The local impacts of climate change in the Ferlo, Western Sahel
Climatic Change, 2008Co-Authors: Lars Hein, Marc J. Metzger, Rik LeemansAbstract:Recent increases in the accuracy of climate models have enhanced the possibilities for analyzing the impacts of climate change on society. This paper explores how the local, economic impacts of climate change can be modeled for a specific eco-region, the Western Sahel. The people in the Sahel are highly dependent on their natural resource base, and these resources are highly vulnerable to climate change, in particular to changes in rainfall. Climate models project substantial changes in rainfall in the Sahel in the coming 50 years, with most models predicting a reduction in rainfall. To connect climate change to changes in ecosystem productivity and local income, we construct an ecological–economic model that incorporates rangeland dynamics, grazing and Livestock Prices. The model shows that decreased rainfall in the Sahel will considerably reduce local incomes, in particular if combined with increases in rainfall variability. Adaptation to these climate change projections is possible if reductions in rainfall are followed by destocking to reach efficient grazing levels. However, while such a strategy is optimal from the perspective of society, the stocking rate is determined by individual pastoralists that face few incentives to destock.
Roy Cole - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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the impact of food aid on cereal and Livestock Prices in red sea province the sudan 1980 1989
Development in Practice, 1991Co-Authors: Roy ColeAbstract:Drought-induced inflation of cereal Prices and the consequent turning of the terms of trade against Livestock upset existing exchange entitlements and contributed to higher than normal mortality rates among the rural Beja populations in Red Sea Province in the early to mid-1980s. The Beja are agropastoralists who raise goats and sheep, and sow some sorghum. Their staples of consumption are goat milk and a prepared dish made with sorghum called asayda. They do not grow enough sorghum for household consumption, but they sell male goats in local markets in order to purchase sorghum. They also engage in a variety of minor activities to generate income for the purchase of sorghum. In this article, data from two markets on cereal and Livestock Prices for the years 1980 to 1989 are examined. The objectives of the study were to examine market performance, especially that associated with the drought and famine in the mid-1980s in Red Sea Province, and to examine how the inflationary period from 1988 to 1990 differ...
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The impact of food aid on cereal and Livestock Prices in Red Sea Province, The Sudan: 1980–1989
Development in Practice, 1991Co-Authors: Roy ColeAbstract:Drought-induced inflation of cereal Prices and the consequent turning of the terms of trade against Livestock upset existing exchange entitlements and contributed to higher than normal mortality rates among the rural Beja populations in Red Sea Province in the early to mid-1980s. The Beja are agropastoralists who raise goats and sheep, and sow some sorghum. Their staples of consumption are goat milk and a prepared dish made with sorghum called asayda. They do not grow enough sorghum for household consumption, but they sell male goats in local markets in order to purchase sorghum. They also engage in a variety of minor activities to generate income for the purchase of sorghum. In this article, data from two markets on cereal and Livestock Prices for the years 1980 to 1989 are examined. The objectives of the study were to examine market performance, especially that associated with the drought and famine in the mid-1980s in Red Sea Province, and to examine how the inflationary period from 1988 to 1990 differ...
Bart Minten - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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Agricultural price evolution in drought versus non-drought affected areas in Ethiopia: An updated assessment using national producer data (January 2014 to January 2017)
2017Co-Authors: Fantu Nisrane Bachewe, Feiruz Yimer, Bart MintenAbstract:We analyze the evolution of crop and Livestock producer Prices and wages of unskilled laborers in Ethiopia between January 2014 and January 2017 to evaluate the effect of El Nino triggered droughts – which started in 2015 – that massively impacted parts of the country. The analyses reveal no evidence of widespread adverse price effects of the drought in cereal and labor markets. Real Prices of major cereals were lower in January 2017 compared to three years earlier, especially for maize, sorghum, and wheat – the crops that are the major source of calories in areas that were most hit by drought. The decline in the cost of cereals in the food basket in January 2017 compared to three years earlier was estimated at 13.3 percent at the national level. Moreover, this decline in cereal costs was highest in areas most affected by the drought, possibly indicating the effect of major cereal imports and food aid directed to these areas. Considering crop and Livestock Prices jointly, the analysis reveals that Livestock-cereal terms of trade improved. This is mainly due to the fact that although Livestock Prices declined during this period, as is usually seen in droughts, this decline was less than the decline in Prices of cereals in such areas. The fluctuating behavior of cereal Prices since January 2015 strikingly contrasts with the El Nino triggered major drought during 1997/98 in Ethiopia. During that period, cereal production declined by 25 percent compared to the year before, with significant increases in the real price of cereals, ranging between 15 and 45 percent. In contrast, in 2016 real cereal Prices declined, which appears consistent with the relatively larger cereal imports and lower impacts of the drought on national cereal production in 2015/16.
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Synopsis: Agricultural Prices during drought in Ethiopia
2016Co-Authors: Fantu Nisrane Bachewe, Feiruz Yimer, Bart Minten, Paul A. DoroshAbstract:We analyze the evolution of crop and Livestock producer Prices and wages of unskilled laborers in Ethiopia over the January 2014 to January 2016 period, during which time the country was massively impacted by El Nino triggered droughts. The analyses reveal no evidence of widespread adverse price effects of the drought in the labor and cereal markets. Real Prices of the major cereals were lower at the beginning of 2016 compared to two years earlier, especially for maize, sorghum, and wheat, the crops that make up the major source of calories in the areas that were most hit by the drought. Conversely, Prices of root crops and pulses increased. Given the large importance attached to cereal consumption, the overall real food consumption basket price declined compared to two years earlier, the decline being lower in drought-affected areas. Considering crop and Livestock Prices jointly reveals that Livestock-cereal terms of trade declined in the worst affected areas, contrasting considerably with improvements seem in areas less affected by the drought. This contrast is mainly due to Livestock Prices declining faster than cereal Prices in such areas. The fluctuating behavior of cereal Prices since January 2015 strikingly contrasts with the situation during the major drought of 1997/98. During that period, cereal production declined by 25 percent compared to the year before, with significant simultaneous real price increases of between 15 and 45 percent.
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Agricultural Prices during drought in Ethiopia: An updated assessment using national producer data (January 2014 to June 2016)
2016Co-Authors: Fantu Nisrane Bachewe, Feiruz Yimer, Bart MintenAbstract:Expanding and extending an earlier assessment (ESSP Working Paper 88, April 2016), we analyze the evolution of crop and Livestock producer Prices and wages of unskilled laborers in Ethiopia between January 2014 and June 2016 to evaluate the effect of El Nino triggered droughts – which started in 2015 – that massively impacted parts of the country. The analyses reveal no evidence of widespread adverse price effects of the drought in cereal and labor markets. Real Prices of major cereals were lower in the middle of 2016 compared to two years earlier, especially for maize, sorghum, and wheat – the crops that are the major source of calories in areas that were most hit by the drought. The decline in the cost of cereals in the food basket in June 2016 compared to two years earlier was estimated at 12.6 percent at the national level. Moreover, this decline in cereal costs was highest in areas most affected by the drought, possibly indicating the effect of major cereal imports and food aid directed to these areas. Considering crop and Livestock Prices jointly, the analysis reveals that Livestock-cereal terms of trade improved. This is mainly because, although Livestock Prices declined during this period – as is usually seen in droughts, this decline was less than the decline in Prices of cereals in such areas. The fluctuating behavior of cereal Prices since January 2015 strikingly contrasts with the El Nino triggered major drought during 1997/98 in Ethiopia. During that period, cereal production declined by 25 percent compared to the year before, with significant increases in real price of cereals, ranging between 15 and 45 percent. In contrast, in 2016 real cereal Prices declined, which appears consistent with the relatively larger cereal imports and lower impacts of the drought on national cereal production in 2015/16.
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Agricultural Prices during drought in Ethiopia: An assessment using national producer data (January 2014 to January 2016)
2016Co-Authors: Fantu Nisrane Bachewe, Feiruz Yimer, Bart Minten, Paul A. DoroshAbstract:We analyze the evolution of crop and Livestock producer Prices and wages of unskilled laborers in Ethiopia over the January 2014 to January 2016 period, during which time the country was massively impacted by El Nino triggered droughts, which started in 2015. The analyses reveal no evidence of widespread adverse price effects of the drought in the labor and cereal markets. Real Prices of the major cereals were lower at the beginning of 2016 compared to two years earlier, especially for maize, sorghum and wheat, the crops that make up the major source of calories in the areas that were most hit by the drought. Conversely, Prices of root crops and pulses increased. However, given the large importance attached to cereal consumption, the overall real food consumption basket price has declined compared to two years earlier. In particular, the decline in the cost of cereals in the food basket was estimated at 11.2 percent at the national level. However, the overall declines were lower in drought-affected (decline of 8 percent) than in non-drought affected areas (decline of 14 percent), indicating the adverse effect of failed harvests in the former areas. Considering crop and Livestock Prices jointly reveals that Livestock-cereal terms of trade declined in the worst affected areas, mainly because Livestock Prices declined faster than cereal Prices in such areas. In contrast, the Livestock-cereal terms of trade considerably improved in areas less affected by the drought. The fluctuating behavior of cereal Prices since January 2015 strikingly contrasts with the situation during the major drought of 1997/98. During that period, cereal production declined by 25 percent compared to the year before, with significant simultaneous real price increases of between 15 and 45 percent.