The Experts below are selected from a list of 27081 Experts worldwide ranked by ideXlab platform
Ferda Halicioglu - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
-
defense spending and economic growth in turkey an empirical application of new Macroeconomic Theory
Social Science Research Network, 2005Co-Authors: Ferda HaliciogluAbstract:This study prsents new empirical evidence on the relationship between the level of of economic growth and defense expenditures in the case of Turkey for the period of 1950-2002. On using new Macroeconomic and multivariate cointegration procedure, this study demonstrates empirically that there exists apositive relationship between aggregate defense spending and aggregate output in Turkey. In addition, the CUSUM and CUSUMSQ tests confirm the stability of aggregateb output function. The results obtained from this study are, by and large, in line with the previous studies concerning Turkey.
-
defense spending and economic growth in turkey an empirical application of new Macroeconomic Theory
Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, 2004Co-Authors: Ferda HaliciogluAbstract:This study presents new empirical evidence on the relationship between the level of economic growth and defense expenditures in the case of Turkey for the period of 1950–2002. On using new Macroeconomic Theory and multivariate cointegration procedure, this study demonstrates empirically that there exists a positive long-run relationship between aggregate defense spending and aggregate output in Turkey. In addition, the CUSUM and CUSUMSQ tests confirm the stability of the aggregate output function. The results obtained from this study are, by and large, in line with the previous studies concerning Turkey.
Karthik Sastry - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
-
imperfect Macroeconomic expectations evidence and Theory
Nber Macroeconomics Annual, 2021Co-Authors: Georgemarios Angeletos, Zhen Huo, Karthik SastryAbstract:We document a new fact about expectations: in response to the main shocks driving the business cycle, expectations under-react initially but over-shoot later on. We show how previous, seemingly conflicting, evidence can be understood as different facets of this fact. We finally explain what the cumulated evidence means for Macroeconomic Theory. There is little support for theories emphasizing under-extrapolation or two close cousins of it, cognitive discounting and level-K thinking. Instead, the evidence favors the combination of dispersed, noisy information and over-extrapolation.
-
imperfect Macroeconomic expectations evidence and Theory
Social Science Research Network, 2020Co-Authors: Georgemarios Angeletos, Zhen Huo, Karthik SastryAbstract:We document a new fact about expectations: in response to the main shocks driving the business cycle, expectations under-react initially but over-shoot later on. We show how previous, seemingly conflicting, evidence can be understood as different facets of this fact. We finally explain what the cumulated evidence means for Macroeconomic Theory. There is little support for theories emphasizing under-extrapolation or two close cousins of it, cognitive discounting and level-K thinking. Instead, the evidence favors the combination of dispersed, noisy information and over-extrapolation. Institutional subscribers to the NBER working paper series, and residents of developing countries may download this paper without additional charge at www.nber.org.
Michael D. Goldberg - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
-
Macroeconomic Theory for a World of Imperfect Knowledge
Social Science Research Network, 2013Co-Authors: Roman Frydman, Michael D. GoldbergAbstract:We have recently proposed an alternative approach to economic analysis, which we call Imperfect Knowledge Economics (IKE). Although IKE builds on the methodology of contemporary Macroeconomics by modeling aggregate outcomes on the basis of mathematical representations of individual decision making, it jettisons models that generate sharp predictions. In this paper, we elaborate on and extend the arguments that led us to propose IKE. We show analytically that in order to avoid the fundamental epistemological flaws inherent in extant models, economists must stop short of fully prespecifying change. We also show how acknowledging the limits of their knowledge may enable economists to shed new light on the basic features of observed time-series of market outcomes, such as fluctuations and risk in asset markets, which have confounded extant approaches for decades.Comments on this paper can be found at: http://ssrn.com/abstract=2209269
-
Macroeconomic Theory For a World of Imperfect Knowledge
Capitalism and Society, 2008Co-Authors: Roman Frydman, Michael D. GoldbergAbstract:We have recently proposed an alternative approach to economic analysis, which we call Imperfect Knowledge Economics (IKE). Although IKE builds on the methodology of contemporary Macroeconomics by modeling aggregate outcomes on the basis of mathematical representations of individual decision making, it jettisons models that generate sharp predictions. In this paper, we elaborate on and extend the arguments that led us to propose IKE. We show analytically that in order to avoid the fundamental epistemological flaws inherent in extant models, economists must stop short of fully prespecifying change. We also show how acknowledging the limits of their knowledge may enable economists to shed new light on the basic features of observed time-series of market outcomes, such as fluctuations and risk in asset markets, which have confounded extant approaches for decades.
Georgemarios Angeletos - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
-
imperfect Macroeconomic expectations evidence and Theory
Nber Macroeconomics Annual, 2021Co-Authors: Georgemarios Angeletos, Zhen Huo, Karthik SastryAbstract:We document a new fact about expectations: in response to the main shocks driving the business cycle, expectations under-react initially but over-shoot later on. We show how previous, seemingly conflicting, evidence can be understood as different facets of this fact. We finally explain what the cumulated evidence means for Macroeconomic Theory. There is little support for theories emphasizing under-extrapolation or two close cousins of it, cognitive discounting and level-K thinking. Instead, the evidence favors the combination of dispersed, noisy information and over-extrapolation.
-
imperfect Macroeconomic expectations evidence and Theory
Social Science Research Network, 2020Co-Authors: Georgemarios Angeletos, Zhen Huo, Karthik SastryAbstract:We document a new fact about expectations: in response to the main shocks driving the business cycle, expectations under-react initially but over-shoot later on. We show how previous, seemingly conflicting, evidence can be understood as different facets of this fact. We finally explain what the cumulated evidence means for Macroeconomic Theory. There is little support for theories emphasizing under-extrapolation or two close cousins of it, cognitive discounting and level-K thinking. Instead, the evidence favors the combination of dispersed, noisy information and over-extrapolation. Institutional subscribers to the NBER working paper series, and residents of developing countries may download this paper without additional charge at www.nber.org.
Michael R Wickens - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
-
Macroeconomic Theory a dynamic general equilibrium approach
2008Co-Authors: Michael R WickensAbstract:Macroeconomic Theory is the most up-to-date graduate-level Macroeconomics textbook available today. This revised second edition emphasizes the general equilibrium character of Macroeconomics to explain effects across the whole economy while taking into account recent research in the field. It is the perfect resource for students and researchers seeking coverage of the most current developments in Macroeconomics. Michael Wickens lays out the core ideas of modern Macroeconomics and its links with finance. He presents the simplest general equilibrium Macroeconomic model for a closed economy, and then gradually develops a comprehensive model of the open economy. Every important topic is covered, including growth, business cycles, fiscal policy, taxation and debt finance, current account sustainability, and exchange-rate determination. There is also an up-to-date account of monetary policy through inflation targeting. Wickens addresses the interrelationships between Macroeconomics and modern finance and shows how they affect stock, bond, and foreign-exchange markets. In this edition, he also examines issues raised by the most recent financial crisis, and two new chapters explore banks, financial intermediation, and unconventional monetary policy, as well as modern theories of unemployment. There is new material in most other chapters, including macrofinance models and inflation targeting when there are supply shocks. While the mathematics in the book is rigorous, the fundamental concepts presented make the text self-contained and easy to use. Accessible, comprehensive, and wide-ranging, Macroeconomic Theory is the standard book on the subject for students and economists. The most up-to-date graduate Macroeconomics textbook available today General equilibrium Macroeconomics and the latest advances covered fully and completely Two new chapters investigate banking and monetary policy, and unemployment Addresses questions raised by the recent financial crisis Web-based exercises with answers Extensive mathematical appendix for at-a-glance easy reference This book has been adopted as a textbook at the following universities: American University Bentley College Brandeis University Brigham Young University California Lutheran University California State University - Sacramento Cardiff University Carleton University Colorado College Fordham University London Metropolitan University New York University Northeastern University Ohio University - Main Campus San Diego State University St. Cloud State University State University Of New York - Amherst Campus State University Of New York - Buffalo North Campus Temple University - Main Texas Tech University University of Alberta University Of Notre Dame University Of Ottawa University Of Pittsburgh University Of South Florida - Tampa University Of Tennessee University Of Texas At Dallas University Of Washington University of Western Ontario Wesleyan University Western Nevada Community College Michael Wickens is professor of economics at the University of York and at Cardiff Business School. He is the coeditor of Handbook of Applied Econometrics and was managing editor of the Economic Journal from 1996 to 2004. He is specialist adviser to the House of Lords on Macroeconomics and a member of the Shadow Monetary Policy Committee.
-
real business cycle analysis a needed revolution in macroeconometrics
The Economic Journal, 1995Co-Authors: Michael R WickensAbstract:The contention of this paper is that real business cycle (RBC) analysis has highlighted fundamental flaws in the underlying Macroeconomic Theory and econometric methodology of traditional macroeconometric model building, but by stating its message crudely and proposing an inferior statistical procedure has failed to receive the recognition it deserves. Properly understood, the lessons to be learned from RBC analysis, combined with the new approach of bringing evidence to bear proposed here, would amount to a revolution in macroeconometric methodology. The outcome of this revolution would be a macroeconometrics better based on Macroeconomic Theory, and a Macroeconomics more consistent with the evidence. The main failing of most macroeconometric models is in not taking Macroeconomic Theory seriously enough with the result that little or nothing is learned about key parameter values, a fault no amount of econometric sophistication will compensate for. Consequently, macroeconometrics has had surprisingly little influence on Macroeconomic Theory (or Macroeconomics teaching), and even the main users of macroeconometric models business, government, the monetary authorities and other national and international bodies are reluctant to employ them for anything other than short-term forecasting. The popular view of RBC analysis is that it is about whether technology shocks are the predominant cause of aggregate output fluctuations, and whether calibration rather than standard econometric methods should be used to analyse this question. Although this may be a reasonable description of the initial work of Kydland and Prescott (I982) and Prescott (i 986), subsequent developments make it outdated and obscure its fundamental insights. In fact RBC Theory is part of a research programme which can be traced back to Ramsey and is associated in modern times with Lucas, in which the aim is to bring out the general equilibrium, inter-temporal, characteristics of Macroeconomics before turning to (the more difficult) issues of disequilibrium. In large part the stimuli for adopting the Ramsey approach were the now well known criticisms of macroeconometric models made by Lucas (I976) who argued that Macroeconomics should be built on the same theoretical foundations as microeconomics. In addition to the weak theoretical foundations of these models, Lucas objected to the way in which the econometric methods used lent themselves to ambiguous interpretations. A good example of this is the difficulty of deciding what meaning to give to observed dynamics. The new
