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Jakub Montewka - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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Towards the assessment of potential impact of unmanned vessels on Maritime Transportation safety
Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 2017Co-Authors: Krzysztof Wróbel, Jakub Montewka, Pentti KujalaAbstract:Abstract The prototypes of unmanned merchant vessels are expected to come into service within the coming years. The main line of argument supporting their introduction pertains to the increase in navigational safety, which is expected to be achieved by reducing the frequency of human-related accidents on board ships, by removing the crews. On the other hand, the response of unmanned ship to potential accidents is still uncertain. With enthusiasm on one side and apprehension on the other, the literature lacks an objective study on the effect of unmanned ships on safety of Maritime Transportation. This paper constitutes an attempt to bridge the aforementioned gap by applying a framework based on what-if analysis to a hundred Maritime accident reports. The aim of the analysis is to assess whether the accident would have happened if the ship had been unmanned, and once the accident had happened - would its consequences have been different. The results obtained reveal that the occurrence of navigational accidents (e.g. collision, grounding) can be expected to decrease with the development of unmanned ship. However the extent of consequences resulting particularly from non-navigational accidents (e.g. fire, ship loss due to structural failure) can be expected to be much larger for the unmanned ships when compared to the conventional ones.
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a framework for risk analysis of Maritime Transportation systems a case study for oil spill from tankers in a ship ship collision
Safety Science, 2015Co-Authors: Floris Goerlandt, Jakub MontewkaAbstract:This paper proposes a framework for risk analysis of Maritime Transportation systems, where risk analysis is understood as a tool for argumentative decision support. Uncertainty is given a more prominent role than in the current state of art in the Maritime Transportation application area, and various tools are presented for analyzing uncertainty. A two-stage risk description is applied. In the first stage, Bayesian Network (BN) modeling is applied for probabilistic risk quantification. The model functions as a communication and argumentation tool, serving as an aid to thinking in a qualitative evidence and assumption effect assessment. The evidence assessment is used together with a sensitivity analysis to select alternative hypotheses for the risk quantification, while the assumption effect assessment is used to convey an argumentation beyond the model. Based on this, a deliberative uncertainty judgment is made in the second risk analysis stage, which is supplemented with a global strength of evidence assessment. The framework is applied to a case study of oil spill from tanker collisions, aimed at response capacity planning and ecological risk assessment. The BN-model is a proactive and transferable tool for assessing the occurrence of various spill sizes in a sea area. While the case study uses evidence specific to the Gulf of Finland, the model and risk analysis approach can be applied to other areas. Based on evaluation criteria and tests for the risk model and risk analysis, it is found that the model is a plausible representation of tanker collision oil spill risk.
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Maritime Transportation risk analysis: Review and analysis in light of some foundational issues
Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 2015Co-Authors: Floris Goerlandt, Jakub MontewkaAbstract:Abstract Many methods and applications for Maritime Transportation risk analysis have been presented in the literature. In parallel, there is a recent focus on foundational issues in risk analysis, with calls for intensified research on fundamental concepts and principles underlying the scientific field. This paper presents a review and analysis of risk definitions, perspectives and scientific approaches to risk analysis found in the Maritime Transportation application area, focusing on applications addressing accidental risk of shipping in a sea area. For this purpose, a classification of risk definitions, an overview of elements in risk perspectives and a classification of approaches to risk analysis science are applied. Results reveal that in the application area, risk is strongly tied to probability, both in definitions and perspectives, while alternative views exist. A diffuse situation is also found concerning the scientific approach to risk analysis, with realist, proceduralist and constructivist foundations co-existing. Realist approaches dominate the application area. Very few applications systematically account for uncertainty, neither concerning the evidence base nor in relation to the limitations of the risk model in relation to the space of possible outcomes. Some suggestions are made to improve the current situation, aiming to strengthen the scientific basis for risk analysis.
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A framework for risk analysis of Maritime Transportation systems: A case study for oil spill from tankers in a ship–ship collision
Safety Science, 2015Co-Authors: Floris Goerlandt, Jakub MontewkaAbstract:This paper proposes a framework for risk analysis of Maritime Transportation systems, where risk analysis is understood as a tool for argumentative decision support. Uncertainty is given a more prominent role than in the current state of art in the Maritime Transportation application area, and various tools are presented for analyzing uncertainty. A two-stage risk description is applied. In the first stage, Bayesian Network (BN) modeling is applied for probabilistic risk quantification. The model functions as a communication and argumentation tool, serving as an aid to thinking in a qualitative evidence and assumption effect assessment. The evidence assessment is used together with a sensitivity analysis to select alternative hypotheses for the risk quantification, while the assumption effect assessment is used to convey an argumentation beyond the model. Based on this, a deliberative uncertainty judgment is made in the second risk analysis stage, which is supplemented with a global strength of evidence assessment. The framework is applied to a case study of oil spill from tanker collisions, aimed at response capacity planning and ecological risk assessment. The BN-model is a proactive and transferable tool for assessing the occurrence of various spill sizes in a sea area. While the case study uses evidence specific to the Gulf of Finland, the model and risk analysis approach can be applied to other areas. Based on evaluation criteria and tests for the risk model and risk analysis, it is found that the model is a plausible representation of tanker collision oil spill risk.
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a framework for risk assessment for Maritime Transportation systems a case study for open sea collisions involving ropax vessels
Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 2014Co-Authors: Jakub Montewka, Sören Ehlers, Tomasz Hinz, Floris Goerlandt, Kristjan Tabri, Pentti KujalaAbstract:Abstract Maritime accidents involving ships carrying passengers may pose a high risk with respect to human casualties. For effective risk mitigation, an insight into the process of risk escalation is needed. This requires a proactive approach when it comes to risk modelling for Maritime Transportation systems. Most of the existing models are based on historical data on Maritime accidents, and thus they can be considered reactive instead of proactive. This paper introduces a systematic, transferable and proactive framework estimating the risk for Maritime Transportation systems, meeting the requirements stemming from the adopted formal definition of risk. The framework focuses on ship–ship collisions in the open sea, with a RoRo/Passenger ship (RoPax) being considered as the struck ship. First, it covers an identification of the events that follow a collision between two ships in the open sea, and, second, it evaluates the probabilities of these events, concluding by determining the severity of a collision. The risk framework is developed with the use of Bayesian Belief Networks and utilizes a set of analytical methods for the estimation of the risk model parameters. Finally, a case study is presented, in which the risk framework developed here is applied to a Maritime Transportation system operating in the Gulf of Finland (GoF). The results obtained are compared to the historical data and available models, in which a RoPax was involved in a collision, and good agreement with the available records is found.
Pentti Kujala - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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Towards the assessment of potential impact of unmanned vessels on Maritime Transportation safety
Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 2017Co-Authors: Krzysztof Wróbel, Jakub Montewka, Pentti KujalaAbstract:Abstract The prototypes of unmanned merchant vessels are expected to come into service within the coming years. The main line of argument supporting their introduction pertains to the increase in navigational safety, which is expected to be achieved by reducing the frequency of human-related accidents on board ships, by removing the crews. On the other hand, the response of unmanned ship to potential accidents is still uncertain. With enthusiasm on one side and apprehension on the other, the literature lacks an objective study on the effect of unmanned ships on safety of Maritime Transportation. This paper constitutes an attempt to bridge the aforementioned gap by applying a framework based on what-if analysis to a hundred Maritime accident reports. The aim of the analysis is to assess whether the accident would have happened if the ship had been unmanned, and once the accident had happened - would its consequences have been different. The results obtained reveal that the occurrence of navigational accidents (e.g. collision, grounding) can be expected to decrease with the development of unmanned ship. However the extent of consequences resulting particularly from non-navigational accidents (e.g. fire, ship loss due to structural failure) can be expected to be much larger for the unmanned ships when compared to the conventional ones.
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a framework for risk assessment for Maritime Transportation systems a case study for open sea collisions involving ropax vessels
Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 2014Co-Authors: Jakub Montewka, Sören Ehlers, Tomasz Hinz, Floris Goerlandt, Kristjan Tabri, Pentti KujalaAbstract:Abstract Maritime accidents involving ships carrying passengers may pose a high risk with respect to human casualties. For effective risk mitigation, an insight into the process of risk escalation is needed. This requires a proactive approach when it comes to risk modelling for Maritime Transportation systems. Most of the existing models are based on historical data on Maritime accidents, and thus they can be considered reactive instead of proactive. This paper introduces a systematic, transferable and proactive framework estimating the risk for Maritime Transportation systems, meeting the requirements stemming from the adopted formal definition of risk. The framework focuses on ship–ship collisions in the open sea, with a RoRo/Passenger ship (RoPax) being considered as the struck ship. First, it covers an identification of the events that follow a collision between two ships in the open sea, and, second, it evaluates the probabilities of these events, concluding by determining the severity of a collision. The risk framework is developed with the use of Bayesian Belief Networks and utilizes a set of analytical methods for the estimation of the risk model parameters. Finally, a case study is presented, in which the risk framework developed here is applied to a Maritime Transportation system operating in the Gulf of Finland (GoF). The results obtained are compared to the historical data and available models, in which a RoPax was involved in a collision, and good agreement with the available records is found.
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A framework for risk assessment for Maritime Transportation systems—A case study for open sea collisions involving RoPax vessels
Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 2014Co-Authors: Jakub Montewka, Sören Ehlers, Tomasz Hinz, Floris Goerlandt, Kristjan Tabri, Pentti KujalaAbstract:AbstractMaritime accidents involving ships carrying passengers may pose a high risk with respect to human casualties. For effective risk mitigation, an insight into the process of risk escalation is needed. This requires a proactive approach when it comes to risk modelling for Maritime Transportation systems. Most of the existing models are based on historical data on Maritime accidents, and thus they can be considered reactive instead of proactive.This paper introduces a systematic, transferable and proactive framework estimating the risk for Maritime Transportation systems, meeting the requirements stemming from the adopted formal definition of risk. The framework focuses on ship–ship collisions in the open sea, with a RoRo/Passenger ship (RoPax) being considered as the struck ship. First, it covers an identification of the events that follow a collision between two ships in the open sea, and, second, it evaluates the probabilities of these events, concluding by determining the severity of a collision. The risk framework is developed with the use of Bayesian Belief Networks and utilizes a set of analytical methods for the estimation of the risk model parameters.Finally, a case study is presented, in which the risk framework developed here is applied to a Maritime Transportation system operating in the Gulf of Finland (GoF). The results obtained are compared to the historical data and available models, in which a RoPax was involved in a collision, and good agreement with the available records is found
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A RISK FRAMEWORK FOR Maritime Transportation SYSTEMS
2013Co-Authors: Jakub Montewka, Sören Ehlers, Tomasz Hinz, Pentti KujalaAbstract:Maritime accidents involving ships carrying passengers may pose a high risk with respect to human casualties. For effective risk mitigation, an insight into the process of risk escalation is needed. This requires a proactive approach when it comes to risk modelling for Maritime Transportation systems. Most of the existing models are based on historical data on Maritime accidents, and thus they can be claimed of being reactive instead of proactive. This paper introduces a systematic, transferable and proactive framework estimating the risk for Maritime Transportation systems, meeting the requirements stemming from the formal definition of risk, which is adopted. The framework focuses on ship-ship collisions in the open sea, with a RoRo/Passenger ship (RoPax) being considered as the struck ship. It is developed with the use of Bayesian Belief Network, which effectively propagate the knowledge and understanding of the analysed system through the model. We expect this approach to assist the knowledge-based risk decision-making not only by informing the user about the risk but also about the effect of limited knowledge and understanding of the analysed system, on the risk.
Floris Goerlandt - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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a framework for risk analysis of Maritime Transportation systems a case study for oil spill from tankers in a ship ship collision
Safety Science, 2015Co-Authors: Floris Goerlandt, Jakub MontewkaAbstract:This paper proposes a framework for risk analysis of Maritime Transportation systems, where risk analysis is understood as a tool for argumentative decision support. Uncertainty is given a more prominent role than in the current state of art in the Maritime Transportation application area, and various tools are presented for analyzing uncertainty. A two-stage risk description is applied. In the first stage, Bayesian Network (BN) modeling is applied for probabilistic risk quantification. The model functions as a communication and argumentation tool, serving as an aid to thinking in a qualitative evidence and assumption effect assessment. The evidence assessment is used together with a sensitivity analysis to select alternative hypotheses for the risk quantification, while the assumption effect assessment is used to convey an argumentation beyond the model. Based on this, a deliberative uncertainty judgment is made in the second risk analysis stage, which is supplemented with a global strength of evidence assessment. The framework is applied to a case study of oil spill from tanker collisions, aimed at response capacity planning and ecological risk assessment. The BN-model is a proactive and transferable tool for assessing the occurrence of various spill sizes in a sea area. While the case study uses evidence specific to the Gulf of Finland, the model and risk analysis approach can be applied to other areas. Based on evaluation criteria and tests for the risk model and risk analysis, it is found that the model is a plausible representation of tanker collision oil spill risk.
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Maritime Transportation risk analysis: Review and analysis in light of some foundational issues
Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 2015Co-Authors: Floris Goerlandt, Jakub MontewkaAbstract:Abstract Many methods and applications for Maritime Transportation risk analysis have been presented in the literature. In parallel, there is a recent focus on foundational issues in risk analysis, with calls for intensified research on fundamental concepts and principles underlying the scientific field. This paper presents a review and analysis of risk definitions, perspectives and scientific approaches to risk analysis found in the Maritime Transportation application area, focusing on applications addressing accidental risk of shipping in a sea area. For this purpose, a classification of risk definitions, an overview of elements in risk perspectives and a classification of approaches to risk analysis science are applied. Results reveal that in the application area, risk is strongly tied to probability, both in definitions and perspectives, while alternative views exist. A diffuse situation is also found concerning the scientific approach to risk analysis, with realist, proceduralist and constructivist foundations co-existing. Realist approaches dominate the application area. Very few applications systematically account for uncertainty, neither concerning the evidence base nor in relation to the limitations of the risk model in relation to the space of possible outcomes. Some suggestions are made to improve the current situation, aiming to strengthen the scientific basis for risk analysis.
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A framework for risk analysis of Maritime Transportation systems: A case study for oil spill from tankers in a ship–ship collision
Safety Science, 2015Co-Authors: Floris Goerlandt, Jakub MontewkaAbstract:This paper proposes a framework for risk analysis of Maritime Transportation systems, where risk analysis is understood as a tool for argumentative decision support. Uncertainty is given a more prominent role than in the current state of art in the Maritime Transportation application area, and various tools are presented for analyzing uncertainty. A two-stage risk description is applied. In the first stage, Bayesian Network (BN) modeling is applied for probabilistic risk quantification. The model functions as a communication and argumentation tool, serving as an aid to thinking in a qualitative evidence and assumption effect assessment. The evidence assessment is used together with a sensitivity analysis to select alternative hypotheses for the risk quantification, while the assumption effect assessment is used to convey an argumentation beyond the model. Based on this, a deliberative uncertainty judgment is made in the second risk analysis stage, which is supplemented with a global strength of evidence assessment. The framework is applied to a case study of oil spill from tanker collisions, aimed at response capacity planning and ecological risk assessment. The BN-model is a proactive and transferable tool for assessing the occurrence of various spill sizes in a sea area. While the case study uses evidence specific to the Gulf of Finland, the model and risk analysis approach can be applied to other areas. Based on evaluation criteria and tests for the risk model and risk analysis, it is found that the model is a plausible representation of tanker collision oil spill risk.
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a framework for risk assessment for Maritime Transportation systems a case study for open sea collisions involving ropax vessels
Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 2014Co-Authors: Jakub Montewka, Sören Ehlers, Tomasz Hinz, Floris Goerlandt, Kristjan Tabri, Pentti KujalaAbstract:Abstract Maritime accidents involving ships carrying passengers may pose a high risk with respect to human casualties. For effective risk mitigation, an insight into the process of risk escalation is needed. This requires a proactive approach when it comes to risk modelling for Maritime Transportation systems. Most of the existing models are based on historical data on Maritime accidents, and thus they can be considered reactive instead of proactive. This paper introduces a systematic, transferable and proactive framework estimating the risk for Maritime Transportation systems, meeting the requirements stemming from the adopted formal definition of risk. The framework focuses on ship–ship collisions in the open sea, with a RoRo/Passenger ship (RoPax) being considered as the struck ship. First, it covers an identification of the events that follow a collision between two ships in the open sea, and, second, it evaluates the probabilities of these events, concluding by determining the severity of a collision. The risk framework is developed with the use of Bayesian Belief Networks and utilizes a set of analytical methods for the estimation of the risk model parameters. Finally, a case study is presented, in which the risk framework developed here is applied to a Maritime Transportation system operating in the Gulf of Finland (GoF). The results obtained are compared to the historical data and available models, in which a RoPax was involved in a collision, and good agreement with the available records is found.
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A framework for risk assessment for Maritime Transportation systems—A case study for open sea collisions involving RoPax vessels
Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 2014Co-Authors: Jakub Montewka, Sören Ehlers, Tomasz Hinz, Floris Goerlandt, Kristjan Tabri, Pentti KujalaAbstract:AbstractMaritime accidents involving ships carrying passengers may pose a high risk with respect to human casualties. For effective risk mitigation, an insight into the process of risk escalation is needed. This requires a proactive approach when it comes to risk modelling for Maritime Transportation systems. Most of the existing models are based on historical data on Maritime accidents, and thus they can be considered reactive instead of proactive.This paper introduces a systematic, transferable and proactive framework estimating the risk for Maritime Transportation systems, meeting the requirements stemming from the adopted formal definition of risk. The framework focuses on ship–ship collisions in the open sea, with a RoRo/Passenger ship (RoPax) being considered as the struck ship. First, it covers an identification of the events that follow a collision between two ships in the open sea, and, second, it evaluates the probabilities of these events, concluding by determining the severity of a collision. The risk framework is developed with the use of Bayesian Belief Networks and utilizes a set of analytical methods for the estimation of the risk model parameters.Finally, a case study is presented, in which the risk framework developed here is applied to a Maritime Transportation system operating in the Gulf of Finland (GoF). The results obtained are compared to the historical data and available models, in which a RoPax was involved in a collision, and good agreement with the available records is found
Harilaos N Psaraftis - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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Green Maritime Transportation: Speed and Route Optimization
Green Transportation Logistics, 2016Co-Authors: Harilaos N Psaraftis, Christos A. KontovasAbstract:Among the spectrum of logistics-based measures for green Maritime Transportation, this chapter focuses on speed optimization. This involves the selection of an appropriate speed by the vessel, so as to optimize a certain objective. As ship speed is not fixed, depressed shipping markets and/or high fuel prices induce slow steaming which is being practised in many sectors of the shipping industry. In recent years the environmental dimension of slow steaming has also become important, as ship emissions are directly proportional to fuel burned. Win-win solutions are sought, but they will not necessarily be possible. The chapter presents some basics, discusses the main trade-offs and also examines combined speed and route optimization problems. Some examples are finally presented so as to highlight the main issues that are at play.
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Guest Editorial: Special Issue on Maritime Transportation and Port Logistics
Transportation Science, 2015Co-Authors: Harilaos N PsaraftisAbstract:This is the second time I have been involved as a Transportation Science Guest Editor of a focused or special issue related to Maritime Transportation. The first time was in the late 1990s, when Gilbert Laporte was Editor-in-Chief. Volume 33, Number 1 of the journal (February 1999) was a focused issue on Maritime Transportation. Focused means that many of the papers in the issue refer to a particular topic, as opposed to a special issue in which the entire issue is devoted to the topic. In the late 1990s it was very unclear what the yield of papers in this area would be. As it turns out, we received 14 submissions, four of which made it to the focused issue. I remember writing in the foreword of that issue that for all of its importance in world trade and global logistics, Maritime Transportation was still underrepresented within the Transportation science and OR/MS literature. More than a decade and a half later, it is fair to say that the picture has improved considerably. The recent survey of Christiansen, Fagerholt, and Ronen (2013) on ship routing and scheduling catalogues 131 papers in the area, and the more specialized one of Meng et al. (2014) on containership routing and scheduling lists 93 references. Both confirm a strong trend in terms of number of papers, range of topics, and publication outlets. In addition, the number of researchers active in the interface of OR/MS and Maritime Transportation is growing strongly. Maritime Transportation of course still remains at least as important to world trade as it was before. World seaborne trade grew from 30,648 to 52,418 billion ton-miles between 2000 and 2014, an increase of 71% over the period (UNCTAD 2014). Significant advances in ship technology such as containerships of more than 18,000 TEU1 have profound effects on the design and operation of the Maritime logistics supply chain, including ports. These advances ran parallel with (and perhaps were caused by) increasing fuel prices over a long period (at least up to 2014) and also by significant regulatory developments to reduce emissions from ships and ports. Again, the logistical ramifications of these developments are significant and worthy of investigation.
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Call for Papers---Focused Issue of Transportation Science on Maritime Transportation and Port Logistics: Submission Deadline: May 31, 2013
Transportation Science, 2013Co-Authors: Harilaos N PsaraftisAbstract:It is estimated that about 90% of all volume and about 70% of the value of all goods transported worldwide are carried by ships and are handled through seaports. Whether deep sea or short sea, shipping is the main pillar of world trade, moving raw materials, finished products, and passengers in a complex network spanning the globe. Shipping today faces a significant set of interconnected challenges, ranging from how to effectively use scarce resources and achieve profitability, to how to be friendly to the environment. Maritime routing and scheduling, fleet sizing and composition, terminal management, and green logistics are some areas of interest, but the area is full of a broader spectrum of problems. They span a diverse set of markets (petroleum, LNG, drybulk, containers, RoPax, etc.) and involve an equally diverse number of stakeholders (ship owners, charterers, port operators, logistics providers, etc.). Because of their complexity, many of these problems are amenable to operations research techniques, yet until recent years they have not received the attention they deserve in the literature. To help stimulate discussion and cross-fertilization in this area, a specialized workshop on Maritime Transportation and Port Logistics is being organized by the Transportation Science and Logistics (TSL) Society of INFORMS on June 16–19, 2013, at Asilomar Conference Grounds, Pacific Grove, California. In parallel, a Transportation Science focused issue on Maritime Transportation and Port Logistics intends to reflect these trends, efforts, and results. The aim is to present original, cutting-edge contributions—methodological and theoretical developments, as well as innovative and insight-provoking applications—that address a wide variety of issues in the modeling, planning, and management of Maritime Transportation and port logistics systems. Topics of interest include (but are not restricted to):
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speed models for energy efficient Maritime Transportation a taxonomy and survey
Transportation Research Part C-emerging Technologies, 2013Co-Authors: Harilaos N Psaraftis, Christos A. KontovasAbstract:Abstract International shipping accounts for 2.7% of worldwide CO 2 emissions, and measures to curb future emissions growth are sought with a high sense of urgency. With the increased quest for greener shipping, reducing the speed of ships has obtained an increased role as one of the measures to be applied toward that end. Already speed has been important for economic reasons, as it is a key determinant of fuel cost, a significant component of the operating cost of ships. Moreover, speed is an important parameter of the overall logistical operation of a shipping company and of the overall supply chain and may directly or indirectly impact fleet size, ship size, cargo inventory costs and shippers’ balance sheets. Changes in ship speed may also induce modal shifts, if cargo can choose other modes because they are faster. However, as emissions are directly proportional to fuel consumed, speed is also very much connected with the environmental dimension of shipping. So when shipping markets are in a depressed state and “slow-steaming” is the prevalent practice for economic reasons, an important side benefit is reduced emissions. In fact there are many indications that this practice, very much applied these days, will be the norm in the future. This paper presents a survey of speed models in Maritime Transportation, that is, models in which speed is one of the decision variables. A taxonomy of such models is also presented, according to a set of parameters.
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an analysis of Maritime Transportation risk factors
The Proceedings of the ... International Offshore and Polar Engineering Conference, 1998Co-Authors: Harilaos N Psaraftis, George Panagakos, Nicholas Desypris, Nikolaos P VentikosAbstract:This paper presents an analysis on the factors that are important determinants of Maritime Transportation risk. The analysis has been part of an international, multi-partner project. The purpose of the project has been to identify technologies and other measures to improve Maritime safety, mainly in the context of European waters.
James B. Rice - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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formal vulnerability assessment of a Maritime Transportation system
Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 2011Co-Authors: Ø. Berle, B.e. Asbjørnslett, James B. RiceAbstract:Abstract World trade increasingly relies on longer, larger and more complex supply chains, where Maritime Transportation is a vital backbone of such operations. Long and complex supply chain systems are more prone to being vulnerable, though through reviews, no specific methods have been found to assess vulnerabilities of a Maritime Transportation system. Most existing supply chain risk assessment frameworks require risks to be foreseen to be mitigated, rather than giving Transportation systems the ability to cope with unforeseen threats and hazards. In assessing cost-efficiency, societal vulnerability versus industrial cost of measures should be included. This conceptual paper presents a structured Formal Vulnerability Assessment (FVA) methodology, seeking to transfer the safety-oriented Formal Safety Assessment (FSA) framework into the domain of Maritime supply chain vulnerability. To do so, the following two alterations are made: (1) The focus of the assessment is defined to ensure the ability of the Transportation to serve as a throughput mechanism of goods, and to survive and recover from disruptive events. (2) To cope with low-frequency high-impact disruptive scenarios that were not necessarily foreseen, two parallel tracks of risk assessments need to be pursued—the cause-focused risk assessment as in the FSA, and a consequence-focused failure mode approach.
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Formal Vulnerability Assessment of a Maritime Transportation system
Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 2011Co-Authors: Ø. Berle, B.e. Asbjørnslett, James B. RiceAbstract:Why did they make birds so delicate and fine as those sea swallows when the ocean can be so cruel? She is kind and very beautiful. But she can be so cruel and it comes so suddenly and such birds that fly, dipping and hunting, with their small sad voices are made too delicately for the sea" - Ernest Hemingway, “The old man and the sea”.The background of this research, given the central condition that the world is completely dependent on Maritime Transportation systems, is to understand how these systems are vulnerable towards disruptions, what the consequences are if the Transportation systems should break down, and how one may give the systems the ability to restore their ability to move goods after a disruption has occurred.The mission of the system is to move goods, hence the focus on protecting the mission rather than the infrastructure itself. The prevalence of low-frequency high-impact scenarios; events that have a low probability but may cause great harm to the system, give the ground for why not all efforts should be directed towards preventing disruptions from occurring. Disruptions are bound to occur, how may the systems be prepared to cope with these events?Cases within Transportation of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) and humanitarian logistics are used to illustrate the problem and the approach to coping with such problems.The research part of the doctoral thesis can be divided into five thematic areas: TA1: Energy security, in particular for natural gas and global LNG Transportation systems TA2: Understanding of Maritime Transportation system failures, in particular for lowfrequency high-impact scenarios TA3: Methods for systematically addressing how systems fail and how these may be made less vulnerable TA4: The relevance of Maritime Transportation systems in humanitarian relief operations, and how to strengthen these TA5: The interaction between supply chain risk assessment and LNG Transportation system optimizationContributions from the research can be summed up as: C1: An overview of the critical functions necessary for a Maritime Transportation system’s ability to move goods. C2: A framework for systematically addressing vulnerabilities in Maritime Transportation systems, treating both operational and low-frequency high-impact risks, as well as incorporating cost/efficiency criteria in the assessment. C3: The insight and understanding of failure and restoration of Maritime Transportation systems is applicable to humanitarian relief logistics, where the application of principles from commercial supply chain management is immature. C4: Combining supply chain risk assessment with optimization tools for an LNG supply chain increases the robustness and resilience of the system and thereby the energy security of the recipients, while ensuring efficient resource usage of the supply chain.PhD i marin teknikkPhD in Marine Technolog
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Failure modes in the Maritime Transportation system: a functional approach to throughput vulnerability
Maritime Policy & Management, 2011Co-Authors: Ø. Berle, James B. Rice, B.e. AsbjørnslettAbstract:Maritime Transportation Systems (MTSs) are essential for world trade; it is crucial to understand how these systems may fail, to be able to maintain their capacity. In this paper, the MTS is seen as a throughput mechanism; a technical system which serves its purpose by moving goods for its dependents. Understanding which key functions and capabilities are prerequisite for the ability to move goods, the loss of which are the failure modes, allows for the creation of a ‘business continuity plan’ for the MTS. Through two surveys and interviews with Maritime Transportation industry stakeholders, it was observed that while stakeholders in the industry have a solid focus on frequent operational risks, there is a lack of awareness of vulnerabilities, as well as methods for addressing and planning for low-frequency high-impact disruption scenarios. The presented approach provides a structured set of matrices of the key functions of the MTS, allowing stakeholders to increase the system's resilience through prepari...
