The Experts below are selected from a list of 327 Experts worldwide ranked by ideXlab platform

Yuhei Takaya - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.

  • japan Meteorological agency Meteorological Research institute coupled prediction system version 2 jma mri cps2 atmosphere land ocean sea ice coupled prediction system for operational seasonal forecasting
    Climate Dynamics, 2018
    Co-Authors: Yuhei Takaya, Takahiro Toyoda, Yosuke Fujii, Tamaki Yasuda, Ichiro Ishikawa, Shoji Hirahara, Satoko Matsueda, Hiroyuki Sugimoto, Chihiro Matsukawa, Hirotoshi Mori
    Abstract:

    This paper describes the Japan Meteorological Agency/Meteorological Research Institute-Coupled Prediction System version 2 (JMA/MRI-CPS2), which was put into operation in June 2015 for the purpose of performing seasonal predictions. JMA/MRI-CPS2 has various upgrades from its predecessor, JMA/MRI-CPS1, including improved resolution and physics in its atmospheric and oceanic components, introduction of an interactive sea-ice model and realistic initialization of its land component. Verification of extensive re-forecasts covering a 30-year period (1981–2010) demonstrates that JMA/MRI-CPS2 possesses improved seasonal predictive skills for both atmospheric and oceanic interannual variability as well as key coupled variability such as the El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). For ENSO prediction, the new system better represents the forecast uncertainty and transition/duration of ENSO phases. Our analysis suggests that the enhanced predictive skills are attributable to incremental improvements resulting from all of the changes, as is apparent in the beneficial effects of sea-ice coupling and land initialization on 2-m temperature predictions. JMA/MRI-CPS2 is capable of reasonably representing the seasonal cycle and secular trends of sea ice. The sea-ice coupling remarkably enhances the predictive capability for the Arctic 2-m temperature, indicating the importance of this factor, particularly for seasonal predictions in the Arctic region.

  • japan Meteorological agency Meteorological Research institute coupled prediction system version 1 jma mri cps1 for operational seasonal forecasting
    Climate Dynamics, 2017
    Co-Authors: Yuhei Takaya, Yosuke Fujii, Tamaki Yasuda, Satoshi Matsumoto, Taizo Soga, Hirotoshi Mori, Masayuki Hirai, Ichiro Ishikawa, Hitoshi Sato, Akihiko Shimpo
    Abstract:

    This paper describes the operational seasonal prediction system of the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), the Japan Meteorological Agency/Meteorological Research Institute-Coupled Prediction System version 1 (JMA/MRI-CPS1), which was in operation at JMA during the period between February 2010 and May 2015. The predictive skill of the system was assessed with a set of retrospective seasonal predictions (reforecasts) covering 30 years (1981–2010). JMA/MRI-CPS1 showed reasonable predictive skill for the El Nino–Southern Oscillation, comparable to the skills of other state-of-the-art systems. The one-tiered approach adopted in JMA/MRI-CPS1 improved its overall predictive skills for atmospheric predictions over those of the two-tiered approach of the previous uncoupled system. For 3-month predictions with a 1-month lead, JMA/MRI-CPS1 showed statistically significant skills in predicting 500-hPa geopotential height and 2-m temperature in East Asia in most seasons; thus, it is capable of providing skillful seasonal predictions for that region. Furthermore, JMA/MRI-CPS1 was superior overall to the previous system for atmospheric predictions with longer (4-month) lead times. In particular, JMA/MRI-CPS1 was much better able to predict the Asian Summer Monsoon than the previous two-tiered system. This enhanced performance was attributed to the system’s ability to represent atmosphere–ocean coupled variability over the Indian Ocean and the western North Pacific from boreal winter to summer following winter El Nino events, which in turn influences the East Asian summer climate through the Pacific–Japan teleconnection pattern. These substantial improvements obtained by using an atmosphere–ocean coupled general circulation model underpin its success in providing more skillful seasonal forecasts on an operational basis.

  • japan Meteorological agency Meteorological Research institute coupled prediction system version 1 jma mri cps1 for operational seasonal forecasting
    Climate Dynamics, 2017
    Co-Authors: Yuhei Takaya, Yosuke Fujii, Tamaki Yasuda, Satoshi Matsumoto, Taizo Soga, Hirotoshi Mori, Masayuki Hirai, Ichiro Ishikawa, Hitoshi Sato, Akihiko Shimpo
    Abstract:

    This paper describes the operational seasonal prediction system of the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), the Japan Meteorological Agency/Meteorological Research Institute-Coupled Prediction System version 1 (JMA/MRI-CPS1), which was in operation at JMA during the period between February 2010 and May 2015. The predictive skill of the system was assessed with a set of retrospective seasonal predictions (reforecasts) covering 30 years (1981–2010). JMA/MRI-CPS1 showed reasonable predictive skill for the El Nino–Southern Oscillation, comparable to the skills of other state-of-the-art systems. The one-tiered approach adopted in JMA/MRI-CPS1 improved its overall predictive skills for atmospheric predictions over those of the two-tiered approach of the previous uncoupled system. For 3-month predictions with a 1-month lead, JMA/MRI-CPS1 showed statistically significant skills in predicting 500-hPa geopotential height and 2-m temperature in East Asia in most seasons; thus, it is capable of providing skillful seasonal predictions for that region. Furthermore, JMA/MRI-CPS1 was superior overall to the previous system for atmospheric predictions with longer (4-month) lead times. In particular, JMA/MRI-CPS1 was much better able to predict the Asian Summer Monsoon than the previous two-tiered system. This enhanced performance was attributed to the system’s ability to represent atmosphere–ocean coupled variability over the Indian Ocean and the western North Pacific from boreal winter to summer following winter El Nino events, which in turn influences the East Asian summer climate through the Pacific–Japan teleconnection pattern. These substantial improvements obtained by using an atmosphere–ocean coupled general circulation model underpin its success in providing more skillful seasonal forecasts on an operational basis.

Akihiko Shimpo - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.

  • japan Meteorological agency Meteorological Research institute coupled prediction system version 1 jma mri cps1 for operational seasonal forecasting
    Climate Dynamics, 2017
    Co-Authors: Yuhei Takaya, Yosuke Fujii, Tamaki Yasuda, Satoshi Matsumoto, Taizo Soga, Hirotoshi Mori, Masayuki Hirai, Ichiro Ishikawa, Hitoshi Sato, Akihiko Shimpo
    Abstract:

    This paper describes the operational seasonal prediction system of the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), the Japan Meteorological Agency/Meteorological Research Institute-Coupled Prediction System version 1 (JMA/MRI-CPS1), which was in operation at JMA during the period between February 2010 and May 2015. The predictive skill of the system was assessed with a set of retrospective seasonal predictions (reforecasts) covering 30 years (1981–2010). JMA/MRI-CPS1 showed reasonable predictive skill for the El Nino–Southern Oscillation, comparable to the skills of other state-of-the-art systems. The one-tiered approach adopted in JMA/MRI-CPS1 improved its overall predictive skills for atmospheric predictions over those of the two-tiered approach of the previous uncoupled system. For 3-month predictions with a 1-month lead, JMA/MRI-CPS1 showed statistically significant skills in predicting 500-hPa geopotential height and 2-m temperature in East Asia in most seasons; thus, it is capable of providing skillful seasonal predictions for that region. Furthermore, JMA/MRI-CPS1 was superior overall to the previous system for atmospheric predictions with longer (4-month) lead times. In particular, JMA/MRI-CPS1 was much better able to predict the Asian Summer Monsoon than the previous two-tiered system. This enhanced performance was attributed to the system’s ability to represent atmosphere–ocean coupled variability over the Indian Ocean and the western North Pacific from boreal winter to summer following winter El Nino events, which in turn influences the East Asian summer climate through the Pacific–Japan teleconnection pattern. These substantial improvements obtained by using an atmosphere–ocean coupled general circulation model underpin its success in providing more skillful seasonal forecasts on an operational basis.

  • japan Meteorological agency Meteorological Research institute coupled prediction system version 1 jma mri cps1 for operational seasonal forecasting
    Climate Dynamics, 2017
    Co-Authors: Yuhei Takaya, Yosuke Fujii, Tamaki Yasuda, Satoshi Matsumoto, Taizo Soga, Hirotoshi Mori, Masayuki Hirai, Ichiro Ishikawa, Hitoshi Sato, Akihiko Shimpo
    Abstract:

    This paper describes the operational seasonal prediction system of the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), the Japan Meteorological Agency/Meteorological Research Institute-Coupled Prediction System version 1 (JMA/MRI-CPS1), which was in operation at JMA during the period between February 2010 and May 2015. The predictive skill of the system was assessed with a set of retrospective seasonal predictions (reforecasts) covering 30 years (1981–2010). JMA/MRI-CPS1 showed reasonable predictive skill for the El Nino–Southern Oscillation, comparable to the skills of other state-of-the-art systems. The one-tiered approach adopted in JMA/MRI-CPS1 improved its overall predictive skills for atmospheric predictions over those of the two-tiered approach of the previous uncoupled system. For 3-month predictions with a 1-month lead, JMA/MRI-CPS1 showed statistically significant skills in predicting 500-hPa geopotential height and 2-m temperature in East Asia in most seasons; thus, it is capable of providing skillful seasonal predictions for that region. Furthermore, JMA/MRI-CPS1 was superior overall to the previous system for atmospheric predictions with longer (4-month) lead times. In particular, JMA/MRI-CPS1 was much better able to predict the Asian Summer Monsoon than the previous two-tiered system. This enhanced performance was attributed to the system’s ability to represent atmosphere–ocean coupled variability over the Indian Ocean and the western North Pacific from boreal winter to summer following winter El Nino events, which in turn influences the East Asian summer climate through the Pacific–Japan teleconnection pattern. These substantial improvements obtained by using an atmosphere–ocean coupled general circulation model underpin its success in providing more skillful seasonal forecasts on an operational basis.

Hirotoshi Mori - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.

  • japan Meteorological agency Meteorological Research institute coupled prediction system version 2 jma mri cps2 atmosphere land ocean sea ice coupled prediction system for operational seasonal forecasting
    Climate Dynamics, 2018
    Co-Authors: Yuhei Takaya, Takahiro Toyoda, Yosuke Fujii, Tamaki Yasuda, Ichiro Ishikawa, Shoji Hirahara, Satoko Matsueda, Hiroyuki Sugimoto, Chihiro Matsukawa, Hirotoshi Mori
    Abstract:

    This paper describes the Japan Meteorological Agency/Meteorological Research Institute-Coupled Prediction System version 2 (JMA/MRI-CPS2), which was put into operation in June 2015 for the purpose of performing seasonal predictions. JMA/MRI-CPS2 has various upgrades from its predecessor, JMA/MRI-CPS1, including improved resolution and physics in its atmospheric and oceanic components, introduction of an interactive sea-ice model and realistic initialization of its land component. Verification of extensive re-forecasts covering a 30-year period (1981–2010) demonstrates that JMA/MRI-CPS2 possesses improved seasonal predictive skills for both atmospheric and oceanic interannual variability as well as key coupled variability such as the El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). For ENSO prediction, the new system better represents the forecast uncertainty and transition/duration of ENSO phases. Our analysis suggests that the enhanced predictive skills are attributable to incremental improvements resulting from all of the changes, as is apparent in the beneficial effects of sea-ice coupling and land initialization on 2-m temperature predictions. JMA/MRI-CPS2 is capable of reasonably representing the seasonal cycle and secular trends of sea ice. The sea-ice coupling remarkably enhances the predictive capability for the Arctic 2-m temperature, indicating the importance of this factor, particularly for seasonal predictions in the Arctic region.

  • japan Meteorological agency Meteorological Research institute coupled prediction system version 1 jma mri cps1 for operational seasonal forecasting
    Climate Dynamics, 2017
    Co-Authors: Yuhei Takaya, Yosuke Fujii, Tamaki Yasuda, Satoshi Matsumoto, Taizo Soga, Hirotoshi Mori, Masayuki Hirai, Ichiro Ishikawa, Hitoshi Sato, Akihiko Shimpo
    Abstract:

    This paper describes the operational seasonal prediction system of the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), the Japan Meteorological Agency/Meteorological Research Institute-Coupled Prediction System version 1 (JMA/MRI-CPS1), which was in operation at JMA during the period between February 2010 and May 2015. The predictive skill of the system was assessed with a set of retrospective seasonal predictions (reforecasts) covering 30 years (1981–2010). JMA/MRI-CPS1 showed reasonable predictive skill for the El Nino–Southern Oscillation, comparable to the skills of other state-of-the-art systems. The one-tiered approach adopted in JMA/MRI-CPS1 improved its overall predictive skills for atmospheric predictions over those of the two-tiered approach of the previous uncoupled system. For 3-month predictions with a 1-month lead, JMA/MRI-CPS1 showed statistically significant skills in predicting 500-hPa geopotential height and 2-m temperature in East Asia in most seasons; thus, it is capable of providing skillful seasonal predictions for that region. Furthermore, JMA/MRI-CPS1 was superior overall to the previous system for atmospheric predictions with longer (4-month) lead times. In particular, JMA/MRI-CPS1 was much better able to predict the Asian Summer Monsoon than the previous two-tiered system. This enhanced performance was attributed to the system’s ability to represent atmosphere–ocean coupled variability over the Indian Ocean and the western North Pacific from boreal winter to summer following winter El Nino events, which in turn influences the East Asian summer climate through the Pacific–Japan teleconnection pattern. These substantial improvements obtained by using an atmosphere–ocean coupled general circulation model underpin its success in providing more skillful seasonal forecasts on an operational basis.

  • japan Meteorological agency Meteorological Research institute coupled prediction system version 1 jma mri cps1 for operational seasonal forecasting
    Climate Dynamics, 2017
    Co-Authors: Yuhei Takaya, Yosuke Fujii, Tamaki Yasuda, Satoshi Matsumoto, Taizo Soga, Hirotoshi Mori, Masayuki Hirai, Ichiro Ishikawa, Hitoshi Sato, Akihiko Shimpo
    Abstract:

    This paper describes the operational seasonal prediction system of the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), the Japan Meteorological Agency/Meteorological Research Institute-Coupled Prediction System version 1 (JMA/MRI-CPS1), which was in operation at JMA during the period between February 2010 and May 2015. The predictive skill of the system was assessed with a set of retrospective seasonal predictions (reforecasts) covering 30 years (1981–2010). JMA/MRI-CPS1 showed reasonable predictive skill for the El Nino–Southern Oscillation, comparable to the skills of other state-of-the-art systems. The one-tiered approach adopted in JMA/MRI-CPS1 improved its overall predictive skills for atmospheric predictions over those of the two-tiered approach of the previous uncoupled system. For 3-month predictions with a 1-month lead, JMA/MRI-CPS1 showed statistically significant skills in predicting 500-hPa geopotential height and 2-m temperature in East Asia in most seasons; thus, it is capable of providing skillful seasonal predictions for that region. Furthermore, JMA/MRI-CPS1 was superior overall to the previous system for atmospheric predictions with longer (4-month) lead times. In particular, JMA/MRI-CPS1 was much better able to predict the Asian Summer Monsoon than the previous two-tiered system. This enhanced performance was attributed to the system’s ability to represent atmosphere–ocean coupled variability over the Indian Ocean and the western North Pacific from boreal winter to summer following winter El Nino events, which in turn influences the East Asian summer climate through the Pacific–Japan teleconnection pattern. These substantial improvements obtained by using an atmosphere–ocean coupled general circulation model underpin its success in providing more skillful seasonal forecasts on an operational basis.

Tamaki Yasuda - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.

  • japan Meteorological agency Meteorological Research institute coupled prediction system version 2 jma mri cps2 atmosphere land ocean sea ice coupled prediction system for operational seasonal forecasting
    Climate Dynamics, 2018
    Co-Authors: Yuhei Takaya, Takahiro Toyoda, Yosuke Fujii, Tamaki Yasuda, Ichiro Ishikawa, Shoji Hirahara, Satoko Matsueda, Hiroyuki Sugimoto, Chihiro Matsukawa, Hirotoshi Mori
    Abstract:

    This paper describes the Japan Meteorological Agency/Meteorological Research Institute-Coupled Prediction System version 2 (JMA/MRI-CPS2), which was put into operation in June 2015 for the purpose of performing seasonal predictions. JMA/MRI-CPS2 has various upgrades from its predecessor, JMA/MRI-CPS1, including improved resolution and physics in its atmospheric and oceanic components, introduction of an interactive sea-ice model and realistic initialization of its land component. Verification of extensive re-forecasts covering a 30-year period (1981–2010) demonstrates that JMA/MRI-CPS2 possesses improved seasonal predictive skills for both atmospheric and oceanic interannual variability as well as key coupled variability such as the El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). For ENSO prediction, the new system better represents the forecast uncertainty and transition/duration of ENSO phases. Our analysis suggests that the enhanced predictive skills are attributable to incremental improvements resulting from all of the changes, as is apparent in the beneficial effects of sea-ice coupling and land initialization on 2-m temperature predictions. JMA/MRI-CPS2 is capable of reasonably representing the seasonal cycle and secular trends of sea ice. The sea-ice coupling remarkably enhances the predictive capability for the Arctic 2-m temperature, indicating the importance of this factor, particularly for seasonal predictions in the Arctic region.

  • japan Meteorological agency Meteorological Research institute coupled prediction system version 1 jma mri cps1 for operational seasonal forecasting
    Climate Dynamics, 2017
    Co-Authors: Yuhei Takaya, Yosuke Fujii, Tamaki Yasuda, Satoshi Matsumoto, Taizo Soga, Hirotoshi Mori, Masayuki Hirai, Ichiro Ishikawa, Hitoshi Sato, Akihiko Shimpo
    Abstract:

    This paper describes the operational seasonal prediction system of the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), the Japan Meteorological Agency/Meteorological Research Institute-Coupled Prediction System version 1 (JMA/MRI-CPS1), which was in operation at JMA during the period between February 2010 and May 2015. The predictive skill of the system was assessed with a set of retrospective seasonal predictions (reforecasts) covering 30 years (1981–2010). JMA/MRI-CPS1 showed reasonable predictive skill for the El Nino–Southern Oscillation, comparable to the skills of other state-of-the-art systems. The one-tiered approach adopted in JMA/MRI-CPS1 improved its overall predictive skills for atmospheric predictions over those of the two-tiered approach of the previous uncoupled system. For 3-month predictions with a 1-month lead, JMA/MRI-CPS1 showed statistically significant skills in predicting 500-hPa geopotential height and 2-m temperature in East Asia in most seasons; thus, it is capable of providing skillful seasonal predictions for that region. Furthermore, JMA/MRI-CPS1 was superior overall to the previous system for atmospheric predictions with longer (4-month) lead times. In particular, JMA/MRI-CPS1 was much better able to predict the Asian Summer Monsoon than the previous two-tiered system. This enhanced performance was attributed to the system’s ability to represent atmosphere–ocean coupled variability over the Indian Ocean and the western North Pacific from boreal winter to summer following winter El Nino events, which in turn influences the East Asian summer climate through the Pacific–Japan teleconnection pattern. These substantial improvements obtained by using an atmosphere–ocean coupled general circulation model underpin its success in providing more skillful seasonal forecasts on an operational basis.

  • japan Meteorological agency Meteorological Research institute coupled prediction system version 1 jma mri cps1 for operational seasonal forecasting
    Climate Dynamics, 2017
    Co-Authors: Yuhei Takaya, Yosuke Fujii, Tamaki Yasuda, Satoshi Matsumoto, Taizo Soga, Hirotoshi Mori, Masayuki Hirai, Ichiro Ishikawa, Hitoshi Sato, Akihiko Shimpo
    Abstract:

    This paper describes the operational seasonal prediction system of the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), the Japan Meteorological Agency/Meteorological Research Institute-Coupled Prediction System version 1 (JMA/MRI-CPS1), which was in operation at JMA during the period between February 2010 and May 2015. The predictive skill of the system was assessed with a set of retrospective seasonal predictions (reforecasts) covering 30 years (1981–2010). JMA/MRI-CPS1 showed reasonable predictive skill for the El Nino–Southern Oscillation, comparable to the skills of other state-of-the-art systems. The one-tiered approach adopted in JMA/MRI-CPS1 improved its overall predictive skills for atmospheric predictions over those of the two-tiered approach of the previous uncoupled system. For 3-month predictions with a 1-month lead, JMA/MRI-CPS1 showed statistically significant skills in predicting 500-hPa geopotential height and 2-m temperature in East Asia in most seasons; thus, it is capable of providing skillful seasonal predictions for that region. Furthermore, JMA/MRI-CPS1 was superior overall to the previous system for atmospheric predictions with longer (4-month) lead times. In particular, JMA/MRI-CPS1 was much better able to predict the Asian Summer Monsoon than the previous two-tiered system. This enhanced performance was attributed to the system’s ability to represent atmosphere–ocean coupled variability over the Indian Ocean and the western North Pacific from boreal winter to summer following winter El Nino events, which in turn influences the East Asian summer climate through the Pacific–Japan teleconnection pattern. These substantial improvements obtained by using an atmosphere–ocean coupled general circulation model underpin its success in providing more skillful seasonal forecasts on an operational basis.

  • simulating present climate of the global ocean ice system using the Meteorological Research institute community ocean model mri com simulation characteristics and variability in the pacific sector
    Journal of Oceanography, 2011
    Co-Authors: Hiroyuki Tsujino, Tamaki Yasuda, Mikitoshi Hirabara, Hideyuki Nakano, Tatsuo Motoi, Goro Yamanaka
    Abstract:

    A long-term spin-up and a subsequent interannual simulation are conducted for the ocean–ice component of the climate model intercomparison project (CMIP)-class earth system model of the Japan Meteorological Agency/Meteorological Research Institute. This experiment has three purposes: first is to assess the ability of our model with the Coordinated Ocean–ice Reference Experiments (COREs) forcing in reproducing the present ocean-climate; second is to understand the ocean-climate variability for the past 60 years; third is to present an example of evaluating an ocean–ice interannual variability simulation. The Pacific Ocean is focused on for the last two purposes. After integrating for about 1500 years with repeated use of a detrended CORE interannual forcing, the model reaches a quasi-steady state where the present climate is reproduced satisfactorily. Then, the interannual variability simulation is conducted with the retrieved forcing trend and the result is analyzed. The simulation is successful at reproducing the long-term variability in the Pacific and surrounding oceans. Brief analyses of the tropical and mid-latitude upper layer, deep circulation, and the Arctic sea ice are presented. A caveat in treating other parts of the globe is due to the recent intense convection in the Southern Ocean caused by a remarkably increasing trend of the Southern Hemisphere westerly. Overall, the current simulation with our CMIP-class ocean–ice model is shown to be useful for studying the present ocean-climate variability, specifically in the Pacific sector. It could also be used as a benchmark control experiment that facilitates further Research, model development, and intercomparison.

  • Meteorological Research institute multivariate ocean variational estimation move system some early results
    Advances in Space Research, 2006
    Co-Authors: Norihisa Usui, Shiro Ishizaki, Yosuke Fujii, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Tamaki Yasuda, Masafumi Kamachi
    Abstract:

    Abstract The Meteorological Research Institute multivariate ocean variational estimation (MOVE) System has been developed as the next-generation ocean data assimilation system in Japan Meteorological Agency. A multivariate three-dimensional variational (3DVAR) analysis scheme with vertical coupled temperature–salinity empirical orthogonal function modes is adopted. The MOVE system has two varieties, the global (MOVE-G) and North Pacific (MOVE-NP) systems. The equatorial Pacific and western North Pacific are analyzed with assimilation experiments using MOVE-G and -NP, respectively. In each system, the salinity and velocity fields are well reproduced, even in cases without salinity data. Changes in surface and subsurface zonal currents during the 1997/98 El Nino event are captured well, and their transports are reasonably consistent with in situ observations. For example, the eastward transport in the upper layer around the equator has 70 Sv in spring 1997 and weakens in spring 1998. With MOVE-NP, the Kuroshio transport has 25 Sv in the East China Sea, and 40 Sv crossing the ASUKA (Affiliated Surveys of the Kuroshio off Cape Ashizuri) line south of Japan. The variations in the Kuroshio transports crossing the ASUKA line agree well with observations. The Ryukyu Current System has a transport ranging from 6 Sv east of Taiwan to 17 Sv east of Amami. The Oyashio transport crossing the OICE (Oyashio Intensive observation line off Cape Erimo) line south of Hokkaido has 14 Sv southwestward (near shore) and 11 Sv northeastward (offshore). In the Kuroshio–Oyashio transition area east of Japan, the eastward transport has 41 Sv (32–36°N) and 12 Sv (36–39°N) crossing the 145°E line.

Yosuke Fujii - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.

  • japan Meteorological agency Meteorological Research institute coupled prediction system version 2 jma mri cps2 atmosphere land ocean sea ice coupled prediction system for operational seasonal forecasting
    Climate Dynamics, 2018
    Co-Authors: Yuhei Takaya, Takahiro Toyoda, Yosuke Fujii, Tamaki Yasuda, Ichiro Ishikawa, Shoji Hirahara, Satoko Matsueda, Hiroyuki Sugimoto, Chihiro Matsukawa, Hirotoshi Mori
    Abstract:

    This paper describes the Japan Meteorological Agency/Meteorological Research Institute-Coupled Prediction System version 2 (JMA/MRI-CPS2), which was put into operation in June 2015 for the purpose of performing seasonal predictions. JMA/MRI-CPS2 has various upgrades from its predecessor, JMA/MRI-CPS1, including improved resolution and physics in its atmospheric and oceanic components, introduction of an interactive sea-ice model and realistic initialization of its land component. Verification of extensive re-forecasts covering a 30-year period (1981–2010) demonstrates that JMA/MRI-CPS2 possesses improved seasonal predictive skills for both atmospheric and oceanic interannual variability as well as key coupled variability such as the El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). For ENSO prediction, the new system better represents the forecast uncertainty and transition/duration of ENSO phases. Our analysis suggests that the enhanced predictive skills are attributable to incremental improvements resulting from all of the changes, as is apparent in the beneficial effects of sea-ice coupling and land initialization on 2-m temperature predictions. JMA/MRI-CPS2 is capable of reasonably representing the seasonal cycle and secular trends of sea ice. The sea-ice coupling remarkably enhances the predictive capability for the Arctic 2-m temperature, indicating the importance of this factor, particularly for seasonal predictions in the Arctic region.

  • japan Meteorological agency Meteorological Research institute coupled prediction system version 1 jma mri cps1 for operational seasonal forecasting
    Climate Dynamics, 2017
    Co-Authors: Yuhei Takaya, Yosuke Fujii, Tamaki Yasuda, Satoshi Matsumoto, Taizo Soga, Hirotoshi Mori, Masayuki Hirai, Ichiro Ishikawa, Hitoshi Sato, Akihiko Shimpo
    Abstract:

    This paper describes the operational seasonal prediction system of the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), the Japan Meteorological Agency/Meteorological Research Institute-Coupled Prediction System version 1 (JMA/MRI-CPS1), which was in operation at JMA during the period between February 2010 and May 2015. The predictive skill of the system was assessed with a set of retrospective seasonal predictions (reforecasts) covering 30 years (1981–2010). JMA/MRI-CPS1 showed reasonable predictive skill for the El Nino–Southern Oscillation, comparable to the skills of other state-of-the-art systems. The one-tiered approach adopted in JMA/MRI-CPS1 improved its overall predictive skills for atmospheric predictions over those of the two-tiered approach of the previous uncoupled system. For 3-month predictions with a 1-month lead, JMA/MRI-CPS1 showed statistically significant skills in predicting 500-hPa geopotential height and 2-m temperature in East Asia in most seasons; thus, it is capable of providing skillful seasonal predictions for that region. Furthermore, JMA/MRI-CPS1 was superior overall to the previous system for atmospheric predictions with longer (4-month) lead times. In particular, JMA/MRI-CPS1 was much better able to predict the Asian Summer Monsoon than the previous two-tiered system. This enhanced performance was attributed to the system’s ability to represent atmosphere–ocean coupled variability over the Indian Ocean and the western North Pacific from boreal winter to summer following winter El Nino events, which in turn influences the East Asian summer climate through the Pacific–Japan teleconnection pattern. These substantial improvements obtained by using an atmosphere–ocean coupled general circulation model underpin its success in providing more skillful seasonal forecasts on an operational basis.

  • japan Meteorological agency Meteorological Research institute coupled prediction system version 1 jma mri cps1 for operational seasonal forecasting
    Climate Dynamics, 2017
    Co-Authors: Yuhei Takaya, Yosuke Fujii, Tamaki Yasuda, Satoshi Matsumoto, Taizo Soga, Hirotoshi Mori, Masayuki Hirai, Ichiro Ishikawa, Hitoshi Sato, Akihiko Shimpo
    Abstract:

    This paper describes the operational seasonal prediction system of the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), the Japan Meteorological Agency/Meteorological Research Institute-Coupled Prediction System version 1 (JMA/MRI-CPS1), which was in operation at JMA during the period between February 2010 and May 2015. The predictive skill of the system was assessed with a set of retrospective seasonal predictions (reforecasts) covering 30 years (1981–2010). JMA/MRI-CPS1 showed reasonable predictive skill for the El Nino–Southern Oscillation, comparable to the skills of other state-of-the-art systems. The one-tiered approach adopted in JMA/MRI-CPS1 improved its overall predictive skills for atmospheric predictions over those of the two-tiered approach of the previous uncoupled system. For 3-month predictions with a 1-month lead, JMA/MRI-CPS1 showed statistically significant skills in predicting 500-hPa geopotential height and 2-m temperature in East Asia in most seasons; thus, it is capable of providing skillful seasonal predictions for that region. Furthermore, JMA/MRI-CPS1 was superior overall to the previous system for atmospheric predictions with longer (4-month) lead times. In particular, JMA/MRI-CPS1 was much better able to predict the Asian Summer Monsoon than the previous two-tiered system. This enhanced performance was attributed to the system’s ability to represent atmosphere–ocean coupled variability over the Indian Ocean and the western North Pacific from boreal winter to summer following winter El Nino events, which in turn influences the East Asian summer climate through the Pacific–Japan teleconnection pattern. These substantial improvements obtained by using an atmosphere–ocean coupled general circulation model underpin its success in providing more skillful seasonal forecasts on an operational basis.

  • Meteorological Research institute multivariate ocean variational estimation move system some early results
    Advances in Space Research, 2006
    Co-Authors: Norihisa Usui, Shiro Ishizaki, Yosuke Fujii, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Tamaki Yasuda, Masafumi Kamachi
    Abstract:

    Abstract The Meteorological Research Institute multivariate ocean variational estimation (MOVE) System has been developed as the next-generation ocean data assimilation system in Japan Meteorological Agency. A multivariate three-dimensional variational (3DVAR) analysis scheme with vertical coupled temperature–salinity empirical orthogonal function modes is adopted. The MOVE system has two varieties, the global (MOVE-G) and North Pacific (MOVE-NP) systems. The equatorial Pacific and western North Pacific are analyzed with assimilation experiments using MOVE-G and -NP, respectively. In each system, the salinity and velocity fields are well reproduced, even in cases without salinity data. Changes in surface and subsurface zonal currents during the 1997/98 El Nino event are captured well, and their transports are reasonably consistent with in situ observations. For example, the eastward transport in the upper layer around the equator has 70 Sv in spring 1997 and weakens in spring 1998. With MOVE-NP, the Kuroshio transport has 25 Sv in the East China Sea, and 40 Sv crossing the ASUKA (Affiliated Surveys of the Kuroshio off Cape Ashizuri) line south of Japan. The variations in the Kuroshio transports crossing the ASUKA line agree well with observations. The Ryukyu Current System has a transport ranging from 6 Sv east of Taiwan to 17 Sv east of Amami. The Oyashio transport crossing the OICE (Oyashio Intensive observation line off Cape Erimo) line south of Hokkaido has 14 Sv southwestward (near shore) and 11 Sv northeastward (offshore). In the Kuroshio–Oyashio transition area east of Japan, the eastward transport has 41 Sv (32–36°N) and 12 Sv (36–39°N) crossing the 145°E line.