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Aidan Regan - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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european Monetary integration and the incompatibility of national varieties of capitalism
Journal of Common Market Studies, 2016Co-Authors: Alison Johnston, Aidan ReganAbstract:The Varieties of Capitalism literature offers two competing hypotheses on institutional resilience. One argues that globalization promotes convergence towards a neo-liberal system. Another stipulates that diverse capitalist Regimes promote different comparative advantages, enabling diverse political economies to co-exist. In this article, we argue that the compatibility of diverse models of capitalism is contingent upon Monetary Regime. We examine how different currency Regimes influence the mutual co-existence of export-led growth models (euro core) and domestic demand-led growth models (euro periphery). Under EMU, we find that these two models have become increasing incompatible, as unsustainable divergences in external balances have emerged between them. We hypothesize that external imbalances between these two growth Regimes did not emerge prior to EMU because of the presence of two inflation adjustment mechanisms in the real exchange rate; the nominal exchange rate (in soft currency Regimes) and national central banks’ promotion of inflation convergence (in hard currency Regimes).
Geoff Kenny - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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the rationality of consumers inflation expectations survey based evidence for the euro area
Social Science Research Network, 2002Co-Authors: Magnus Forsells, Geoff KennyAbstract:This paper uses survey data to assess consumers' inflation expectations in the euro area. The probability approach is used to derive quantitative estimates of inflation expectations from the European Commission's Consumer Survey. The paper subsequently analyses the empirical properties of the estimated inflation expectations by considering the extent to which they fulfil some of the necessary conditions for rationality. The results suggest an intermediate form of developments and they incorporate - though not always completely - a broad set of macroeconomic information. In addition, although persistent deviations between consumers' expectations and the rational outcome have occurred, consumers are shown to rationally adjust their expectations in order to eventually "weed out" any systematic expectational errors. Interestingly, perhaps reflecting changes in the Monetary Regime, there is also evidence of "growing" rationality over the 1990s compared with the 1980s.
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the rationality of consumers inflation expectations survey based evidence for the euro area
Research Papers in Economics, 2002Co-Authors: Magnus Forsells, Geoff KennyAbstract:This paper uses survey data to assess consumers' inflation expectations in the euro area. The probability approach is used to derive quantitative estimates of inflation expectations from the European Commission's Consumer Survey. The paper subsequently analyses the empirical properties of the estimated inflation expectations by considering the extent to which they fulfil some of the necessary conditions for rationality. The results suggest an intermediate form of rationality. In particular, the surveyed expectations are an unbiased predictor of future price developments and they incorporate - though not always completely - a broad set of macroeconomic information. In addition, although persistent deviations between consumers' expectations and the rational outcome have occurred, consumers are shown to rationally adjust their expectations in order to eventually 'weed out' any systematic expectational errors. Interestingly, perhaps reflecting changes in the Monetary Regime, there is also evidence of 'growing' rationality over the 1990s compared with the 1980s. JEL Classification: D12, D84, E31
Matias Vernengo - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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the political economy of Monetary institutions in brazil the limits of the inflation targeting strategy 1999 2005
Review of Political Economy, 2008Co-Authors: Matias VernengoAbstract:Abstract This paper suggests that the time-inconsistency approach is inadequate to analyze the political economy of Monetary policy in Brazil. The paper develops an alternative theory that emphasizes distributive conflict, and argues that building credibility with a fixed exchange rate and through inflation-targeting was not central for stabilization. A contested-terrain analysis of the Brazilian case suggests that the current Monetary Regime benefits financial or rentier interests while the manufacturing sector and workers bear the costs of this policy.
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the political economy of Monetary institutions in brazil the limits of the inflation targeting strategy 1999 2005
Research Papers in Economics, 2006Co-Authors: Matias VernengoAbstract:The paper provides a critical analysis of the literature on Monetary policy institutions. It presents a critique of the dominant notion of central bank independence, based on the literature on time-inconsistency of Monetary policy. An alternative view that emphasizes the role of distributive conflict in establishing Monetary policy Regimes is developed and used to analyze the Brazilian inflation targeting Regime implemented in 1999. The analysis suggests that financial or rentier’s interests benefit from the current Monetary Regime, while manufacturing and worker’s interests bear the costs.
Brazil, Hugo Leonardo Salgado - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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Uma crítica pós-Keynesiana à meta de PIB nominal
2015Co-Authors: Brazil, Hugo Leonardo SalgadoAbstract:O mainstream de política monetária estimula o uso de regras de política econômica a fim de evitar problemas de inconsistência temporal e garantir controle inflacionário. Ao longo da história, diversos tipos de Regimes monetários foram implementados, como nos casos da Meta de Taxa de Câmbio e Metas Monetárias. Atualmente, países dentre os quais, Nova Zelândia, Brasil, Espanha, Reino Unido, Canadá, Suécia utilizam o Regime de Metas de Inflação, que consiste em assegurar uma taxa de inflação definida pela autoridade monetária alcançada por meio de um instrumento de política, no caso, a taxa de juros nominal de curto prazo. A quebra do banco Lehman Brothers e da seguradora AIG em setembro de 2008 desencadeou uma profunda crise financeira em escala mundial com queda brusca da atividade econômica, principalmente em países da Europa e nos EUA. Diante deste cenário, grande parte dos Bancos Centrais entrou, seguindo o receituário imposto pela teoria dominante, em um processo de redução da taxa de juros nominal. Contudo, quando o instrumento de política atingiu seu nível inferior, a atuação da política monetária se tornou limitada, fazendo as autoridades monetárias adotarem métodos não-convencionais para tentar alavancar a economia. Com as lições que a crise impôs à teoria dominante, uma crítica interna fez ressurgir (o tema é estudado desde o fim da década de 1970) a proposta de troca de Regime monetário em favor da Meta de PIB Nominal. Autores mainstream como Krugman (2011), Romer (2011) e Frankel (2013) entre outros, encaram a mudança de Regime como a melhor forma de conseguir recolocar a economia aos níveis anteriores à crise. Em relação à crítica externa, os pós-keynesianos fazem duras críticas à política monetária adotada pela Nova Síntese Macroeconômica, especialmente ao Regime de Metas de Inflação. Entretanto, não há uma literatura que faça a crítica teórica à Meta de PIB Nominal. Com isso, o objetivo desta dissertação será fazer, no âmbito da teoria heterodoxa, críticas à Meta de PIB Nominal, partindo dos conceitos pós-keynesiano como não-neutralidade da moeda, o papel dos Bancos Centrais, a importância do efeito acelerador do investimento e a endogenia do produto potencial pelo lado da demanda. A crítica diz respeito ao uso do produto potencial determinado pelo lado da oferta, o que torna a Meta de PIB Nominal uma extensão da Meta de Inflação, a limitação de atuação do Banco Central em estimular o investimento e alterar capacidade produtiva da economia e a irreversibilidade do tempo em relação à “dependência histórica” proposta por um tipo de Meta de PIB Nominal. Caso o BC tenha características heterodoxas, a Meta de PIB Nominal pode garantir maiores ganhos com produto devido a sua maior flexibilidade, em especial no caso de choques de oferta.The Monetary policy mainstream encourages the use of rules of economic policy in order to avoid time inconsistency problems and ensure inflation control. Throughout history, various types of Monetary Regimes were implemented, as in the case of Exchange Rate Targeting and Monetary Targeting. Currently, countries among them, New Zealand, Spain, United Kingdom, Canada, Sweden use the Inflation Targeting, which is to ensure an inflation rate set by the Monetary authority achieved through a policy instrument, in the case, short-term nominal interest rate. The fall of Lehman Brothers and AIG in September 2008 triggered a deep financial crisis worldwide with rapid drop in economic activity, especially in european countries and the USA. In this scenario, most central banks came following the prescriptions imposed by the dominant theory in a process of reducing nominal interest rate. However, when the policy instrument reached its zero lower bound, the Monetary policy stance has become limited, making the Monetary authorities adopt unconventional methods try to leverage the economy. With the lessons that the crisis imposed on dominant theory, an internal critique has resurrected (the subject is studied since the late 1970’s) the proposed Monetary Regime change in favor of Nominal GDP Targeting. Mainstream authors such as Krugman (2011), Romer (2011) and Frankel (2013) among others, regard Regime change as the best way to get the economy to replace pre-crisis levels. With regard to external review, post-keynesians do several criticism of the Monetary policy adopted by the New Synthesis, especially Inflation Targeting. However, there is a literature that makes the theoretical critique of Nominal GDP Targeting. Thus, the aim of this work is provide, within the heterodox theory, theoretical criticism of Nominal GDP Targeting, starting from post-keynesian concepts such as non-neutrality of money, the role of central banks, the importance of investment and endogenous potential output on the demand side. The criticism concerns the use of potential output determined by the supply side, which makes the Nominal GDP an extension of Inflation Targeting, the Central Bank's actions limitation to stimulate investment and change productive capacity of the economy and the irreversibility of time compared to "historical dependence" proposed by a kind of Meta Nominal GDP. If Central Bank has unorthodox characteristics, Nominal GDP can ensure higher gains from product due to their greater flexibility, especially in the case of supply shocks
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Uma crítica pós-Keynesiana à meta de PIB nominal
Mestrado em Economia, 2015Co-Authors: Brazil, Hugo Leonardo SalgadoAbstract:O mainstream de política monetária estimula o uso de regras de política econômica a fim de evitar problemas de inconsistência temporal e garantir controle inflacionário. Ao longo da história, diversos tipos de Regimes monetários foram implementados, como nos casos da Meta de Taxa de Câmbio e Metas Monetárias. Atualmente, países dentre os quais, Nova Zelândia, Brasil, Espanha, Reino Unido, Canadá, Suécia utilizam o Regime de Metas de Inflação, que consiste em assegurar uma taxa de inflação definida pela autoridade monetária alcançada por meio de um instrumento de política, no caso, a taxa de juros nominal de curto prazo. A quebra do banco Lehman Brothers e da seguradora AIG em setembro de 2008 desencadeou uma profunda crise financeira em escala mundial com queda brusca da atividade econômica, principalmente em países da Europa e nos EUA. Diante deste cenário, grande parte dos Bancos Centrais entrou, seguindo o receituário imposto pela teoria dominante, em um processo de redução da taxa de juros nominal. Contudo, quando o instrumento de política atingiu seu nível inferior, a atuação da política monetária se tornou limitada, fazendo as autoridades monetárias adotarem métodos não-convencionais para tentar alavancar a economia. Com as lições que a crise impôs à teoria dominante, uma crítica interna fez ressurgir (o tema é estudado desde o fim da década de 1970) a proposta de troca de Regime monetário em favor da Meta de PIB Nominal. Autores mainstream como Krugman (2011), Romer (2011) e Frankel (2013) entre outros, encaram a mudança de Regime como a melhor forma de conseguir recolocar a economia aos níveis anteriores à crise. Em relação à crítica externa, os pós-keynesianos fazem duras críticas à política monetária adotada pela Nova Síntese Macroeconômica, especialmente ao Regime de Metas de Inflação. Entretanto, não há uma literatura que faça a crítica teórica à Meta de PIB Nominal. Com isso, o objetivo desta dissertação será fazer, no âmbito da teoria heterodoxa, críticas à Meta de PIB Nominal, partindo dos conceitos pós-keynesiano como não-neutralidade da moeda, o papel dos Bancos Centrais, a importância do efeito acelerador do investimento e a endogenia do produto potencial pelo lado da demanda. A crítica diz respeito ao uso do produto potencial determinado pelo lado da oferta, o que torna a Meta de PIB Nominal uma extensão da Meta de Inflação, a limitação de atuação do Banco Central em estimular o investimento e alterar capacidade produtiva da economia e a irreversibilidade do tempo em relação à “dependência histórica” proposta por um tipo de Meta de PIB Nominal. Caso o BC tenha características heterodoxas, a Meta de PIB Nominal pode garantir maiores ganhos com produto devido a sua maior flexibilidade, em especial no caso de choques de oferta.The Monetary policy mainstream encourages the use of rules of economic policy in order to avoid time inconsistency problems and ensure inflation control. Throughout history, various types of Monetary Regimes were implemented, as in the case of Exchange Rate Targeting and Monetary Targeting. Currently, countries among them, New Zealand, Spain, United Kingdom, Canada, Sweden use the Inflation Targeting, which is to ensure an inflation rate set by the Monetary authority achieved through a policy instrument, in the case, short-term nominal interest rate. The fall of Lehman Brothers and AIG in September 2008 triggered a deep financial crisis worldwide with rapid drop in economic activity, especially in european countries and the USA. In this scenario, most central banks came following the prescriptions imposed by the dominant theory in a process of reducing nominal interest rate. However, when the policy instrument reached its zero lower bound, the Monetary policy stance has become limited, making the Monetary authorities adopt unconventional methods try to leverage the economy. With the lessons that the crisis imposed on dominant theory, an internal critique has resurrected (the subject is studied since the late 1970’s) the proposed Monetary Regime change in favor of Nominal GDP Targeting. Mainstream authors such as Krugman (2011), Romer (2011) and Frankel (2013) among others, regard Regime change as the best way to get the economy to replace pre-crisis levels. With regard to external review, post-keynesians do several criticism of the Monetary policy adopted by the New Synthesis, especially Inflation Targeting. However, there is a literature that makes the theoretical critique of Nominal GDP Targeting. Thus, the aim of this work is provide, within the heterodox theory, theoretical criticism of Nominal GDP Targeting, starting from post-keynesian concepts such as non-neutrality of money, the role of central banks, the importance of investment and endogenous potential output on the demand side. The criticism concerns the use of potential output determined by the supply side, which makes the Nominal GDP an extension of Inflation Targeting, the Central Bank's actions limitation to stimulate investment and change productive capacity of the economy and the irreversibility of time compared to "historical dependence" proposed by a kind of Meta Nominal GDP. If Central Bank has unorthodox characteristics, Nominal GDP can ensure higher gains from product due to their greater flexibility, especially in the case of supply shocks.CAPE
Magnus Forsells - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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the rationality of consumers inflation expectations survey based evidence for the euro area
Social Science Research Network, 2002Co-Authors: Magnus Forsells, Geoff KennyAbstract:This paper uses survey data to assess consumers' inflation expectations in the euro area. The probability approach is used to derive quantitative estimates of inflation expectations from the European Commission's Consumer Survey. The paper subsequently analyses the empirical properties of the estimated inflation expectations by considering the extent to which they fulfil some of the necessary conditions for rationality. The results suggest an intermediate form of developments and they incorporate - though not always completely - a broad set of macroeconomic information. In addition, although persistent deviations between consumers' expectations and the rational outcome have occurred, consumers are shown to rationally adjust their expectations in order to eventually "weed out" any systematic expectational errors. Interestingly, perhaps reflecting changes in the Monetary Regime, there is also evidence of "growing" rationality over the 1990s compared with the 1980s.
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the rationality of consumers inflation expectations survey based evidence for the euro area
Research Papers in Economics, 2002Co-Authors: Magnus Forsells, Geoff KennyAbstract:This paper uses survey data to assess consumers' inflation expectations in the euro area. The probability approach is used to derive quantitative estimates of inflation expectations from the European Commission's Consumer Survey. The paper subsequently analyses the empirical properties of the estimated inflation expectations by considering the extent to which they fulfil some of the necessary conditions for rationality. The results suggest an intermediate form of rationality. In particular, the surveyed expectations are an unbiased predictor of future price developments and they incorporate - though not always completely - a broad set of macroeconomic information. In addition, although persistent deviations between consumers' expectations and the rational outcome have occurred, consumers are shown to rationally adjust their expectations in order to eventually 'weed out' any systematic expectational errors. Interestingly, perhaps reflecting changes in the Monetary Regime, there is also evidence of 'growing' rationality over the 1990s compared with the 1980s. JEL Classification: D12, D84, E31