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Francesco Giavazzi - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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Measuring Tax Multipliers: The Narrative Method in Fiscal VARs †
American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, 2012Co-Authors: Carlo A. Favero, Francesco GiavazziAbstract:This paper argues in favor of empirical models built by including in fiscal VAR models structural shocks identified via the Narrative Method. We first show that "Narrative" shocks are orthogonal to the relevant information set a fiscal VAR. We then derive impulse responses to these shocks. The use of Narrative shocks does not require the inversion of the moving-average representation of a VAR for the identification of the relevant shocks. Therefore, within this framework, fiscal multipliers can be identified and estimated even when, in the presence of "fiscal foresight," the MA representation of the VARs is not invertible. (JEL C32, E62, H20, H62, H63) This paper argues in favor of estimating fiscal multipliers by including in a VAR shocks to taxes and government revenues identified via the Narrative Methods (Romer and Romer 2010, from here onwards R&R). If shocks identified via the Narrative Method are orthogonal to the relevant information set in the VAR (a test able proposition), then fiscal multipliers are naturally computed via the impulse responses to such shocks generated by the VAR. An essential advantage of the pro cedure we propose is that it does not require the inversion of the moving-average representation of a VAR. This means that fiscal multipliers can be validly identi fied and estimated even when the MA representation of the VAR is not invertible— which is the case when agents receive information on the tax changes they will face in the future, i.e., in the presence of fiscal foresight. Using this approach, we solve an apparent puzzle in the measurement of tax multipliers. In the empirical literature, tax multipliers estimated analyzing the effects of shocks identified within a VAR are surprisingly different from multipli ers computed using shocks identified via the Narrative Method. R&R, using US data and studying the post World War II period, find a tax multiplier significantly greater than one: a tax increase equivalent to 1 percent of GDP reduces output
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measuring tax multipliers the Narrative Method in fiscal vars
American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, 2012Co-Authors: Carlo A. Favero, Francesco GiavazziAbstract:This paper argues in favor of empirical models built by including in fiscal VAR models structural shocks identified via the Narrative Method. We first show that "Narrative" shocks are orthogonal to the relevant information set a fiscal VAR. We then derive impulse responses to these shocks. The use of Narrative shocks does not require the inversion of the moving-average representation of a VAR for the identification of the relevant shocks. Therefore, within this framework, fiscal multipliers can be identified and estimated even when, in the presence of "fiscal foresight," the MA representation of the VARs is not invertible. (JEL C32, E62, H20, H62, H63) This paper argues in favor of estimating fiscal multipliers by including in a VAR shocks to taxes and government revenues identified via the Narrative Methods (Romer and Romer 2010, from here onwards R&R). If shocks identified via the Narrative Method are orthogonal to the relevant information set in the VAR (a test able proposition), then fiscal multipliers are naturally computed via the impulse responses to such shocks generated by the VAR. An essential advantage of the pro cedure we propose is that it does not require the inversion of the moving-average representation of a VAR. This means that fiscal multipliers can be validly identi fied and estimated even when the MA representation of the VAR is not invertible— which is the case when agents receive information on the tax changes they will face in the future, i.e., in the presence of fiscal foresight. Using this approach, we solve an apparent puzzle in the measurement of tax multipliers. In the empirical literature, tax multipliers estimated analyzing the effects of shocks identified within a VAR are surprisingly different from multipli ers computed using shocks identified via the Narrative Method. R&R, using US data and studying the post World War II period, find a tax multiplier significantly greater than one: a tax increase equivalent to 1 percent of GDP reduces output
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Reconciling VAR-based and Narrative Measures of the Tax-Multiplier
2010Co-Authors: Carlo A. Favero, Francesco GiavazziAbstract:The currently available empirical evidence shows remarkable differences between various estimates of the effects on U.S output of an exogenous shift in Federal tax liabilities. Shocks identified via the Narrative Method, imply a multiplier of about three over . an horizon of three years. Tax shocks identified in fiscal VAR models deliver a much smaller multipier of about one. Is this heterogeneity real, or is it simply the result of different approaches to the identification of exogenous shifts in taxes? Or of different specifications of the empirical model used to estimate the tax multiplier? In this paper we reconcile this apparently contradictory evidence by showing that the large multiplier obtained via the Narrative identification Methods are generated by the choice of a limited information approach in their estimation and not by the different nature of the shocks. Using the shocks identified by a Narrative Methods in a multivariate dynamic model delivers estimates of the tax multiplier very much in line with those obtained in the traditional fiscal VAR approach.
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Measuring Tax Multipliers: The Narrative Method in Fiscal VARs
2010Co-Authors: Carlo A. Favero, Francesco GiavazziAbstract:This paper argues in favor of empirical models built by including in fiscal VAR models structural shocks identified via the Narrative Method. We first show that "Narrative" shocks are orthogonal to the relevant information set a fiscal VAR. We then derive impulse responses to these shocks. The use of Narrative shocks does not require the inversion of the moving-average representation of a VAR for the identification of the relevant shocks. Therefore, within this framework, fiscal multipliers can be identified and estimated even when, in the presence of "fiscal foresight," the MA representation of the VARs is not invertible. (JEL C32, E62, H20, H62, H63) (This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
Carlo A. Favero - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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Measuring Tax Multipliers: The Narrative Method in Fiscal VARs †
American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, 2012Co-Authors: Carlo A. Favero, Francesco GiavazziAbstract:This paper argues in favor of empirical models built by including in fiscal VAR models structural shocks identified via the Narrative Method. We first show that "Narrative" shocks are orthogonal to the relevant information set a fiscal VAR. We then derive impulse responses to these shocks. The use of Narrative shocks does not require the inversion of the moving-average representation of a VAR for the identification of the relevant shocks. Therefore, within this framework, fiscal multipliers can be identified and estimated even when, in the presence of "fiscal foresight," the MA representation of the VARs is not invertible. (JEL C32, E62, H20, H62, H63) This paper argues in favor of estimating fiscal multipliers by including in a VAR shocks to taxes and government revenues identified via the Narrative Methods (Romer and Romer 2010, from here onwards R&R). If shocks identified via the Narrative Method are orthogonal to the relevant information set in the VAR (a test able proposition), then fiscal multipliers are naturally computed via the impulse responses to such shocks generated by the VAR. An essential advantage of the pro cedure we propose is that it does not require the inversion of the moving-average representation of a VAR. This means that fiscal multipliers can be validly identi fied and estimated even when the MA representation of the VAR is not invertible— which is the case when agents receive information on the tax changes they will face in the future, i.e., in the presence of fiscal foresight. Using this approach, we solve an apparent puzzle in the measurement of tax multipliers. In the empirical literature, tax multipliers estimated analyzing the effects of shocks identified within a VAR are surprisingly different from multipli ers computed using shocks identified via the Narrative Method. R&R, using US data and studying the post World War II period, find a tax multiplier significantly greater than one: a tax increase equivalent to 1 percent of GDP reduces output
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measuring tax multipliers the Narrative Method in fiscal vars
American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, 2012Co-Authors: Carlo A. Favero, Francesco GiavazziAbstract:This paper argues in favor of empirical models built by including in fiscal VAR models structural shocks identified via the Narrative Method. We first show that "Narrative" shocks are orthogonal to the relevant information set a fiscal VAR. We then derive impulse responses to these shocks. The use of Narrative shocks does not require the inversion of the moving-average representation of a VAR for the identification of the relevant shocks. Therefore, within this framework, fiscal multipliers can be identified and estimated even when, in the presence of "fiscal foresight," the MA representation of the VARs is not invertible. (JEL C32, E62, H20, H62, H63) This paper argues in favor of estimating fiscal multipliers by including in a VAR shocks to taxes and government revenues identified via the Narrative Methods (Romer and Romer 2010, from here onwards R&R). If shocks identified via the Narrative Method are orthogonal to the relevant information set in the VAR (a test able proposition), then fiscal multipliers are naturally computed via the impulse responses to such shocks generated by the VAR. An essential advantage of the pro cedure we propose is that it does not require the inversion of the moving-average representation of a VAR. This means that fiscal multipliers can be validly identi fied and estimated even when the MA representation of the VAR is not invertible— which is the case when agents receive information on the tax changes they will face in the future, i.e., in the presence of fiscal foresight. Using this approach, we solve an apparent puzzle in the measurement of tax multipliers. In the empirical literature, tax multipliers estimated analyzing the effects of shocks identified within a VAR are surprisingly different from multipli ers computed using shocks identified via the Narrative Method. R&R, using US data and studying the post World War II period, find a tax multiplier significantly greater than one: a tax increase equivalent to 1 percent of GDP reduces output
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Reconciling VAR-based and Narrative Measures of the Tax-Multiplier
2010Co-Authors: Carlo A. Favero, Francesco GiavazziAbstract:The currently available empirical evidence shows remarkable differences between various estimates of the effects on U.S output of an exogenous shift in Federal tax liabilities. Shocks identified via the Narrative Method, imply a multiplier of about three over . an horizon of three years. Tax shocks identified in fiscal VAR models deliver a much smaller multipier of about one. Is this heterogeneity real, or is it simply the result of different approaches to the identification of exogenous shifts in taxes? Or of different specifications of the empirical model used to estimate the tax multiplier? In this paper we reconcile this apparently contradictory evidence by showing that the large multiplier obtained via the Narrative identification Methods are generated by the choice of a limited information approach in their estimation and not by the different nature of the shocks. Using the shocks identified by a Narrative Methods in a multivariate dynamic model delivers estimates of the tax multiplier very much in line with those obtained in the traditional fiscal VAR approach.
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Measuring Tax Multipliers: The Narrative Method in Fiscal VARs
2010Co-Authors: Carlo A. Favero, Francesco GiavazziAbstract:This paper argues in favor of empirical models built by including in fiscal VAR models structural shocks identified via the Narrative Method. We first show that "Narrative" shocks are orthogonal to the relevant information set a fiscal VAR. We then derive impulse responses to these shocks. The use of Narrative shocks does not require the inversion of the moving-average representation of a VAR for the identification of the relevant shocks. Therefore, within this framework, fiscal multipliers can be identified and estimated even when, in the presence of "fiscal foresight," the MA representation of the VARs is not invertible. (JEL C32, E62, H20, H62, H63) (This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
Deborah Swinglehurst - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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tensions and paradoxes in electronic patient record research a systematic literature review using the meta Narrative Method
Milbank Quarterly, 2009Co-Authors: Trisha Greenhalgh, Henry W W Potts, Geoff Wong, P Bark, Deborah SwinglehurstAbstract:Background: The extensive and rapidly expanding research literature on electronic patient records (EPRs) presents challenges to systematic reviewers. This literature is heterogeneous and at times conflicting, not least because it covers multiple research traditions with different underlying philosophical assumptions and Methodological approaches. Aim: To map, interpret and critique the range of concepts, theories, Methods and empirical findings on EPRs, with a particular emphasis on the implementation and use of EPR systems. Method: Using the meta-Narrative Method of systematic review, and applying search strategies that took us beyond the Medline-indexed literature, we identified over 500 full-text sources. We used ‘conflicting’ findings to address higher-order questions about how the EPR and its implementation were differently conceptualised and studied by different communities of researchers. Main findings: Our final synthesis included 24 previous systematic reviews and 94 additional primary studies, most of the latter from outside the biomedical literature. A number of tensions were evident, particularly in relation to: [1] the EPR (‘container’ or ‘itinerary’); [2] the EPR user (‘information-processer’ or ‘member of socio-technical network’); [3] organizational context (‘the setting within which the EPR is implemented’ or ‘the EPR-in-use’); [4] clinical work (‘decision-making’ or ‘situated practice’); [5] the process of change (‘the logic of determinism’ or ‘the logic of opposition’); [6] implementation success (‘objectively defined’ or ‘socially negotiated’); and [7] complexity and scale (‘the bigger the better’ or ‘small is beautiful’). Findings suggest that integration of EPRs will always require human work to re-contextualize knowledge for different uses; that whilst secondary work (audit, research, billing) may be made more efficient by the EPR, primary clinical work may be made less efficient; that paper, far from being technologically obsolete, currently offers greater ecological flexibility than most forms of electronic record; and that smaller systems may sometimes be more efficient and effective than larger ones. Conclusions: The tensions and paradoxes revealed in this study extend and challenge previous reviews and suggest that the evidence base for some EPR programs is more limited than is often assumed. We offer this paper as a preliminary contribution to a much-needed debate on this evidence and its implications, and suggest avenues for new research.
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Tensions and paradoxes in electronic patient record research: a systematic literature review using the meta-Narrative Method.
The Milbank quarterly, 2009Co-Authors: Trisha Greenhalgh, Henry W W Potts, Geoff Wong, P Bark, Deborah SwinglehurstAbstract:The extensive research literature on electronic patient records (EPRs) presents challenges to systematic reviewers because it covers multiple research traditions with different underlying philosophical assumptions and Methodological approaches. Using the meta-Narrative Method and searching beyond the Medline-indexed literature, this review used "conflicting" findings to address higher-order questions about how researchers had differently conceptualized and studied the EPR and its implementation. Twenty-four previous systematic reviews and ninety-four further primary studies were considered. Key tensions in the literature centered on (1) the EPR ("container" or "itinerary"); (2) the EPR user ("information-processer" or "member of socio-technical network"); (3) organizational context ("the setting within which the EPR is implemented" or "the EPR-in-use"); (4) clinical work ("decision making" or "situated practice"); (5) the process of change ("the logic of determinism" or "the logic of opposition"); (6) implementation success ("objectively defined" or "socially negotiated"); and (7) complexity and scale ("the bigger the better" or "small is beautiful"). The findings suggest that EPR use will always require human input to recontextualize knowledge; that even though secondary work (audit, research, billing) may be made more efficient by the EPR, primary clinical work may be made less efficient; that paper may offer a unique degree of ecological flexibility; and that smaller EPR systems may sometimes be more efficient and effective than larger ones. We suggest an agenda for further research.
Trisha Greenhalgh - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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towards a better understanding of delivering e health systems a systematic review using the meta Narrative Method and two case studies
(NIHR Service Delivery and Organisation programme ). HMSO, 2011Co-Authors: Hww Potts, Trisha Greenhalgh, P Bark, Justin Keen, T Denby, I Featherstone, David Patterson, Janet Anderson, Lacey Colligan, Jacqueline NichollsAbstract:Background: The introduction of ‘e-Health’ has profound consequences for the organisation and delivery of health services. However, past studies are inconsistent as to the nature and magnitude of benefits from e-Health or how these might be realised. According to many, e-Health will make healthcare better, safer, cheaper and more integrated. Yet there is also evidence that new services can be introduced without discernible benefits and some authors criticise visions of a technological utopia. e-Health systems are complex interventions, entailing a combination of technology and organisation. They can be described as socio-technical systems. Aims/objectives: Much past research consists of implementation studies. We looked at e-Health systems that are currently in use, in order to learn from how real health services have used technology and adapted to the use of technology. Methods: We performed a systematic review using the meta-Narrative approach. We then used mixed Methods within a case study approach to look at two healthcare systems using information systems, including observations, interviews and formal risk management approaches (task analyses, prospective and retrospective hazards analyses). Key findings: Our review suggests electronic health records require human input to recontextualise knowledge; and that while secondary work (e.g. audit, billing) may be made more efficient by electronic records, primary clinical work may be made less efficient. The development of e-Health systems can reflect past and ongoing contingencies. There are unavoidable pressures for the localisation and fragmentation of services. There is always a co-evolution of the service and the technology, including the use of workarounds. e-Health is often promoted for its contributions to patient safety, but the evidence base for improvements is weak. Risk management Methodologies can be illuminative for studying e-Health systems. However, Methods are not individually reliable. Organisational boundaries remain problem areas and threaten the provision of high quality care. Organisational boundaries are a particular issue when ‘interessement’ (the process of recruiting other stakeholders to a solution) has failed, and funding models can be a particular barrier. The medico-legal context is largely untested. Conclusions: The evidence suggests that future research on e-Health systems should not presume a simple, causalist approach (technology X will reliably produce outcome Y). In-use e-Health systems are flexible and contingent. They rely on the ongoing work of healthcare staff to bridge the gap between social requirements and technical feasibility. We suggest a dynamic tension between standardisation and localisation is unavoidable.
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tensions and paradoxes in electronic patient record research a systematic literature review using the meta Narrative Method
Milbank Quarterly, 2009Co-Authors: Trisha Greenhalgh, Henry W W Potts, Geoff Wong, P Bark, Deborah SwinglehurstAbstract:Background: The extensive and rapidly expanding research literature on electronic patient records (EPRs) presents challenges to systematic reviewers. This literature is heterogeneous and at times conflicting, not least because it covers multiple research traditions with different underlying philosophical assumptions and Methodological approaches. Aim: To map, interpret and critique the range of concepts, theories, Methods and empirical findings on EPRs, with a particular emphasis on the implementation and use of EPR systems. Method: Using the meta-Narrative Method of systematic review, and applying search strategies that took us beyond the Medline-indexed literature, we identified over 500 full-text sources. We used ‘conflicting’ findings to address higher-order questions about how the EPR and its implementation were differently conceptualised and studied by different communities of researchers. Main findings: Our final synthesis included 24 previous systematic reviews and 94 additional primary studies, most of the latter from outside the biomedical literature. A number of tensions were evident, particularly in relation to: [1] the EPR (‘container’ or ‘itinerary’); [2] the EPR user (‘information-processer’ or ‘member of socio-technical network’); [3] organizational context (‘the setting within which the EPR is implemented’ or ‘the EPR-in-use’); [4] clinical work (‘decision-making’ or ‘situated practice’); [5] the process of change (‘the logic of determinism’ or ‘the logic of opposition’); [6] implementation success (‘objectively defined’ or ‘socially negotiated’); and [7] complexity and scale (‘the bigger the better’ or ‘small is beautiful’). Findings suggest that integration of EPRs will always require human work to re-contextualize knowledge for different uses; that whilst secondary work (audit, research, billing) may be made more efficient by the EPR, primary clinical work may be made less efficient; that paper, far from being technologically obsolete, currently offers greater ecological flexibility than most forms of electronic record; and that smaller systems may sometimes be more efficient and effective than larger ones. Conclusions: The tensions and paradoxes revealed in this study extend and challenge previous reviews and suggest that the evidence base for some EPR programs is more limited than is often assumed. We offer this paper as a preliminary contribution to a much-needed debate on this evidence and its implications, and suggest avenues for new research.
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Tensions and paradoxes in electronic patient record research: a systematic literature review using the meta-Narrative Method.
The Milbank quarterly, 2009Co-Authors: Trisha Greenhalgh, Henry W W Potts, Geoff Wong, P Bark, Deborah SwinglehurstAbstract:The extensive research literature on electronic patient records (EPRs) presents challenges to systematic reviewers because it covers multiple research traditions with different underlying philosophical assumptions and Methodological approaches. Using the meta-Narrative Method and searching beyond the Medline-indexed literature, this review used "conflicting" findings to address higher-order questions about how researchers had differently conceptualized and studied the EPR and its implementation. Twenty-four previous systematic reviews and ninety-four further primary studies were considered. Key tensions in the literature centered on (1) the EPR ("container" or "itinerary"); (2) the EPR user ("information-processer" or "member of socio-technical network"); (3) organizational context ("the setting within which the EPR is implemented" or "the EPR-in-use"); (4) clinical work ("decision making" or "situated practice"); (5) the process of change ("the logic of determinism" or "the logic of opposition"); (6) implementation success ("objectively defined" or "socially negotiated"); and (7) complexity and scale ("the bigger the better" or "small is beautiful"). The findings suggest that EPR use will always require human input to recontextualize knowledge; that even though secondary work (audit, research, billing) may be made more efficient by the EPR, primary clinical work may be made less efficient; that paper may offer a unique degree of ecological flexibility; and that smaller EPR systems may sometimes be more efficient and effective than larger ones. We suggest an agenda for further research.
Krzysztof Wnuk - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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A theory of openness for software engineering tools in software organizations
Information & Software Technology, 2017Co-Authors: Hussan Munir, Per Runeson, Krzysztof WnukAbstract:Abstract Context The increased use of Open Source Software (OSS) affects how software-intensive product development organizations (SIPDO) innovate and compete, moving them towards Open Innovation (OI). Specifically, software engineering tools have the potential for OI, but require better understanding regarding what to develop internally and what to acquire from outside the organization, and how to cooperate with potential competitors. Aim This paper aims at synthesizing a theory of openness for software engineering tools in SIPDOs, that can be utilized by managers in defining more efficient strategies towards OSS communities. Method We synthesize empirical evidence from a systematic mapping study, a case study, and a survey, using a Narrative Method. The synthesis Method entails four steps: (1) Developing a preliminary synthesis, (2) Exploring the relationship between studies, (3) Assessing the validity of the synthesis, and (4) Theory formation. Result We present a theory of openness for OSS tools in software engineering in relation to four constructs: (1) Strategy, (2) Triggers, (3) Outcomes, and (4) Level of openness. Conclusion The theory reasons that openness provides opportunities to reduce the development cost and development time. Furthermore, OI positively impacts on the process and product innovation, but it requires investment by organizations in OSS communities. By betting on openness, organizations may be able to significantly increase their competitiveness.
