The Experts below are selected from a list of 15996 Experts worldwide ranked by ideXlab platform
Cameron Anderson - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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The social transmission of Overconfidence.
Journal of experimental psychology. General, 2020Co-Authors: Joey T. Cheng, Cameron Anderson, Sebastien Brion, Don A. Moore, Elizabeth R. Tenney, Jennifer Marie LoggAbstract:We propose and test the Overconfidence transmission hypothesis, which predicts that individuals calibrate their self-assessments in response to the confidence others display in their social group. Six studies that deploy a mix of correlational and experimental methods support this hypothesis. Evidence indicates that individuals randomly assigned to collaborate in laboratory dyads converged on levels of Overconfidence about their own performance rankings. In a controlled experimental context, observing overconfident peers causally increased an individual's degree of bias. The transmission effect persisted over time and across task domains, elevating Overconfidence even days after initial exposure. In addition, Overconfidence spread across indirect social ties (person to person to person), and transmission operated outside of reported awareness. However, individuals showed a selective in-group bias; Overconfidence was acquired only when displayed by a member of one's in-group (and not out-group), consistent with theoretical notions of selective learning bias. Combined, these results advance understanding of the social factors that underlie interindividual differences in Overconfidence and suggest that social transmission processes may be in part responsible for why local confidence norms emerge in groups, teams, and organizations. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2021 APA, all rights reserved).
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When Overconfidence is revealed to others: Testing the status-enhancement theory of Overconfidence
Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 2013Co-Authors: Jessica A. Kennedy, Cameron Anderson, Don A. MooreAbstract:The status-enhancement theory of Overconfidence proposes that Overconfidence pervades self-judgment because it helps people attain higher social status. Prior work has found that highly confident individuals attained higher status regardless of whether their confidence was justified by actual ability (Anderson, Brion, Moore, & Kennedy, 2012). However, those initial findings were observed in contexts where individuals’ actual abilities were unlikely to be discovered by others. What happens to overconfident individuals when others learn how good they truly are at the task? If those individuals are penalized with status demotions, then the status costs might outweigh the status benefits of Overconfidence – thereby casting doubt on the benefits of Overconfidence. In three studies, we found that group members did not react negatively to individuals revealed as overconfident, and in fact still viewed them positively. Therefore, the status benefits of Overconfidence outweighed any possible status costs, lending further support to the status-enhancement theory.
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A status-enhancement account of Overconfidence
Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 2012Co-Authors: Cameron Anderson, Sebastien Brion, Don A. Moore, Jessica A. KennedyAbstract:In explaining the prevalence of the overconfident belief that one is better than others, prior work has focused on the motive to maintain high self-esteem, abetted by biases in attention, memory, and cognition. An additional possibility is that Overconfidence enhances the person’s social status. We tested this status-enhancing account of Overconfidence in 6 studies. Studies 1–3 found that Overconfidence leads to higher social status in both short- and longer-term groups, using naturalistic and experimental designs. Study 4 applied a Brunswikian lens analysis (Brunswik, 1956) and found that Overconfidence leads to a behavioral signature that makes the individual appear competent to others. Studies 5 and 6 measured and experimentally manipulated the desire for status and found that the status motive promotes Overconfidence. Together, these studies suggest that people might so often believe they are better than others because it helps them achieve higher social status.
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Social Reactions to Overconfidence: Do the Costs of Overconfidence Outweigh the Benefits?
2011Co-Authors: Jessica A. Kennedy, Cameron Anderson, Don A. MooreAbstract:Scholars have recently proposed that Overconfidence pervades self-judgment because of the social benefits it provides individuals, such as higher status in groups (Anderson, Brion, & Moore, 2010). A counter-argument to this social-functional account of Overconfidence is that the possible social costs of Overconfidence could outweigh its benefits. Specifically, individuals could be severely punished by groups if their Overconfidence were to become apparent to others. This paper examines social reactions to Overconfidence by exploring whether groups in fact punish individuals revealed to be overconfident. In three laboratory studies, we found that groups did not react negatively to individuals revealed to be overconfident and in fact tended to view overconfident individuals as more socially skilled. This research lends further empirical support to the social-functional account of Overconfidence by suggesting that the status-related benefits of Overconfidence outweigh the possible social costs.
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Overconfidence and the Attainment of Status in Groups
2010Co-Authors: Cameron Anderson, Sebastien BrionAbstract:Individuals who occupy positions of high status and authority tend to engage in Overconfidence more than others. While prior work suggests that this excessive Overconfidence is partly a product of their elevated status, the current research tested whether Overconfidence can also lead to status: Are individuals with overly positive self-perceptions of ability more likely to attain status in the first place? Three studies of task-focused dyads and groups involving laboratory and field settings found support for this hypothesis. Further, the relation between Overconfidence and status was consistently mediated by peer-perceived competence: overconfident individuals attained status because others inaccurately perceived them as more competent. An experimental manipulation established the causal priority of Overconfidence, and a longitudinal study found the effects of Overconfidence endured over time. This research contributes to our understanding of status distribution systems in groups and organizations, the consequences of Overconfidence, and the psychology of status.
Jessica A. Kennedy - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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When Overconfidence is revealed to others: Testing the status-enhancement theory of Overconfidence
Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 2013Co-Authors: Jessica A. Kennedy, Cameron Anderson, Don A. MooreAbstract:The status-enhancement theory of Overconfidence proposes that Overconfidence pervades self-judgment because it helps people attain higher social status. Prior work has found that highly confident individuals attained higher status regardless of whether their confidence was justified by actual ability (Anderson, Brion, Moore, & Kennedy, 2012). However, those initial findings were observed in contexts where individuals’ actual abilities were unlikely to be discovered by others. What happens to overconfident individuals when others learn how good they truly are at the task? If those individuals are penalized with status demotions, then the status costs might outweigh the status benefits of Overconfidence – thereby casting doubt on the benefits of Overconfidence. In three studies, we found that group members did not react negatively to individuals revealed as overconfident, and in fact still viewed them positively. Therefore, the status benefits of Overconfidence outweighed any possible status costs, lending further support to the status-enhancement theory.
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A status-enhancement account of Overconfidence
Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 2012Co-Authors: Cameron Anderson, Sebastien Brion, Don A. Moore, Jessica A. KennedyAbstract:In explaining the prevalence of the overconfident belief that one is better than others, prior work has focused on the motive to maintain high self-esteem, abetted by biases in attention, memory, and cognition. An additional possibility is that Overconfidence enhances the person’s social status. We tested this status-enhancing account of Overconfidence in 6 studies. Studies 1–3 found that Overconfidence leads to higher social status in both short- and longer-term groups, using naturalistic and experimental designs. Study 4 applied a Brunswikian lens analysis (Brunswik, 1956) and found that Overconfidence leads to a behavioral signature that makes the individual appear competent to others. Studies 5 and 6 measured and experimentally manipulated the desire for status and found that the status motive promotes Overconfidence. Together, these studies suggest that people might so often believe they are better than others because it helps them achieve higher social status.
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Social Reactions to Overconfidence: Do the Costs of Overconfidence Outweigh the Benefits?
2011Co-Authors: Jessica A. Kennedy, Cameron Anderson, Don A. MooreAbstract:Scholars have recently proposed that Overconfidence pervades self-judgment because of the social benefits it provides individuals, such as higher status in groups (Anderson, Brion, & Moore, 2010). A counter-argument to this social-functional account of Overconfidence is that the possible social costs of Overconfidence could outweigh its benefits. Specifically, individuals could be severely punished by groups if their Overconfidence were to become apparent to others. This paper examines social reactions to Overconfidence by exploring whether groups in fact punish individuals revealed to be overconfident. In three laboratory studies, we found that groups did not react negatively to individuals revealed to be overconfident and in fact tended to view overconfident individuals as more socially skilled. This research lends further empirical support to the social-functional account of Overconfidence by suggesting that the status-related benefits of Overconfidence outweigh the possible social costs.
Don A. Moore - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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The social transmission of Overconfidence.
Journal of experimental psychology. General, 2020Co-Authors: Joey T. Cheng, Cameron Anderson, Sebastien Brion, Don A. Moore, Elizabeth R. Tenney, Jennifer Marie LoggAbstract:We propose and test the Overconfidence transmission hypothesis, which predicts that individuals calibrate their self-assessments in response to the confidence others display in their social group. Six studies that deploy a mix of correlational and experimental methods support this hypothesis. Evidence indicates that individuals randomly assigned to collaborate in laboratory dyads converged on levels of Overconfidence about their own performance rankings. In a controlled experimental context, observing overconfident peers causally increased an individual's degree of bias. The transmission effect persisted over time and across task domains, elevating Overconfidence even days after initial exposure. In addition, Overconfidence spread across indirect social ties (person to person to person), and transmission operated outside of reported awareness. However, individuals showed a selective in-group bias; Overconfidence was acquired only when displayed by a member of one's in-group (and not out-group), consistent with theoretical notions of selective learning bias. Combined, these results advance understanding of the social factors that underlie interindividual differences in Overconfidence and suggest that social transmission processes may be in part responsible for why local confidence norms emerge in groups, teams, and organizations. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2021 APA, all rights reserved).
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XCWG: Overconfidence Across Cultures
2018Co-Authors: Don A. Moore, Amelia Dev, Ekaterina Y. GoncharovaAbstract:Overconfidence is a robust cognitive bias with far-reaching implications, but prior research on cultural differences in Overconfidence has been conflicting. We present two studies that measure the three forms of Overconfidence across cultures, allowing us to paint a more complete picture of cross-cultural Overconfidence than previous studies. In Study 1, we compare Overconfidence among participants from cultures traditionally considered individualistic (the US and UK) with participants from cultures traditionally conceptualized as collectivistic (India and China). In Study 2, we employ a new task to compare Overconfidence in participants from the US and India. Our first key result is the successful cross-cultural replication, in both studies, of the effect of task difficulty on overestimation and overplacement, which bolsters our faith that our measures operate similarly across cultures. Our second key finding is that, while we find evidence of higher overestimation in our Indian participants, neither overplacement nor overprecision show consistent cross-cultural differences. Taken as a whole, our results suggest that previous findings of increased Overconfidence in participants from collectivistic cultures may not be as robust as previously reported.
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Overconfidence Across Cultures
Collabra: Psychology, 2018Co-Authors: Don A. Moore, Amelia Dev, Ekaterina Y. GoncharovaAbstract:Overconfidence is a robust cognitive bias with far-reaching implications, but prior research on cultural differences in Overconfidence has been conflicting. We present two studies that measure the three forms of Overconfidence across cultures, allowing us to paint a more complete picture of cross-cultural Overconfidence than previous studies. In Study 1, we compare Overconfidence among participants from cultures traditionally considered individualistic (the US and UK) with participants from cultures traditionally conceptualized as collectivistic (India and China). In Study 2, we employ a new task to compare Overconfidence in participants from the US and India. Our first key result is the successful cross-cultural replication, in both studies, of the effect of task difficulty on overestimation and overplacement, which bolsters our faith that our measures operate similarly across cultures. Our second key finding is that, while we find evidence of higher overestimation in our Indian participants, neither overplacement nor overprecision show consistent cross-cultural differences. Taken as a whole, our results suggest that previous findings of increased Overconfidence in participants from collectivistic cultures may not be as robust as previously reported.
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Overconfidence at work: Does Overconfidence survive the checks and balances of organizational life?
Research in Organizational Behavior, 2016Co-Authors: Nathan Meikle, Elizabeth R. Tenney, Don A. MooreAbstract:Abstract This review considers the role of Overconfidence in organizational life, focusing on ways in which individual-level Overconfidence manifests in organizations. The research reviewed offers a pessimistic assessment of the efficacy of either debiasing tools or organizational correctives, and identifies some important ways in which organizational dynamics are likely to exacerbate Overconfidence among individuals. The organizational consequences of Overconfidence can be substantial, especially when it comes from those at the top of the organization. However, there are also reasons to suspect that the research literature exaggerates the prevalence of Overconfidence.
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When Overconfidence is revealed to others: Testing the status-enhancement theory of Overconfidence
Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 2013Co-Authors: Jessica A. Kennedy, Cameron Anderson, Don A. MooreAbstract:The status-enhancement theory of Overconfidence proposes that Overconfidence pervades self-judgment because it helps people attain higher social status. Prior work has found that highly confident individuals attained higher status regardless of whether their confidence was justified by actual ability (Anderson, Brion, Moore, & Kennedy, 2012). However, those initial findings were observed in contexts where individuals’ actual abilities were unlikely to be discovered by others. What happens to overconfident individuals when others learn how good they truly are at the task? If those individuals are penalized with status demotions, then the status costs might outweigh the status benefits of Overconfidence – thereby casting doubt on the benefits of Overconfidence. In three studies, we found that group members did not react negatively to individuals revealed as overconfident, and in fact still viewed them positively. Therefore, the status benefits of Overconfidence outweighed any possible status costs, lending further support to the status-enhancement theory.
Sebastien Brion - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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The social transmission of Overconfidence.
Journal of experimental psychology. General, 2020Co-Authors: Joey T. Cheng, Cameron Anderson, Sebastien Brion, Don A. Moore, Elizabeth R. Tenney, Jennifer Marie LoggAbstract:We propose and test the Overconfidence transmission hypothesis, which predicts that individuals calibrate their self-assessments in response to the confidence others display in their social group. Six studies that deploy a mix of correlational and experimental methods support this hypothesis. Evidence indicates that individuals randomly assigned to collaborate in laboratory dyads converged on levels of Overconfidence about their own performance rankings. In a controlled experimental context, observing overconfident peers causally increased an individual's degree of bias. The transmission effect persisted over time and across task domains, elevating Overconfidence even days after initial exposure. In addition, Overconfidence spread across indirect social ties (person to person to person), and transmission operated outside of reported awareness. However, individuals showed a selective in-group bias; Overconfidence was acquired only when displayed by a member of one's in-group (and not out-group), consistent with theoretical notions of selective learning bias. Combined, these results advance understanding of the social factors that underlie interindividual differences in Overconfidence and suggest that social transmission processes may be in part responsible for why local confidence norms emerge in groups, teams, and organizations. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2021 APA, all rights reserved).
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A status-enhancement account of Overconfidence
Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 2012Co-Authors: Cameron Anderson, Sebastien Brion, Don A. Moore, Jessica A. KennedyAbstract:In explaining the prevalence of the overconfident belief that one is better than others, prior work has focused on the motive to maintain high self-esteem, abetted by biases in attention, memory, and cognition. An additional possibility is that Overconfidence enhances the person’s social status. We tested this status-enhancing account of Overconfidence in 6 studies. Studies 1–3 found that Overconfidence leads to higher social status in both short- and longer-term groups, using naturalistic and experimental designs. Study 4 applied a Brunswikian lens analysis (Brunswik, 1956) and found that Overconfidence leads to a behavioral signature that makes the individual appear competent to others. Studies 5 and 6 measured and experimentally manipulated the desire for status and found that the status motive promotes Overconfidence. Together, these studies suggest that people might so often believe they are better than others because it helps them achieve higher social status.
-
Overconfidence and the Attainment of Status in Groups
2010Co-Authors: Cameron Anderson, Sebastien BrionAbstract:Individuals who occupy positions of high status and authority tend to engage in Overconfidence more than others. While prior work suggests that this excessive Overconfidence is partly a product of their elevated status, the current research tested whether Overconfidence can also lead to status: Are individuals with overly positive self-perceptions of ability more likely to attain status in the first place? Three studies of task-focused dyads and groups involving laboratory and field settings found support for this hypothesis. Further, the relation between Overconfidence and status was consistently mediated by peer-perceived competence: overconfident individuals attained status because others inaccurately perceived them as more competent. An experimental manipulation established the causal priority of Overconfidence, and a longitudinal study found the effects of Overconfidence endured over time. This research contributes to our understanding of status distribution systems in groups and organizations, the consequences of Overconfidence, and the psychology of status.
Steven J Heine - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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Overconfidence is universal elicitation of genuine Overconfidence ego procedure reveals systematic differences across domain task knowledge and incentives in four populations
PLOS ONE, 2018Co-Authors: Michael Muthukrishna, Joseph Henrich, Wataru Toyokawa, Takeshi Hamamura, Tatsuya Kameda, Steven J HeineAbstract:Overconfidence is sometimes assumed to be a human universal, but there remains a dearth of data systematically measuring Overconfidence across populations and contexts. Moreover, cross-cultural experiments often fail to distinguish between placement and precision and worse still, often compare population-mean placement estimates rather than individual performance subtracted from placement. Here we introduce a procedure for concurrently capturing both placement and precision at an individual level based on individual performance: The Elicitation of Genuine Overconfidence (EGO) procedure. We conducted experiments using the EGO procedure, manipulating domain, task knowledge, and incentives across four populations—Japanese, Hong Kong Chinese, Euro Canadians, and East Asian Canadians. We find that previous measures of population-level Overconfidence may have been misleading; rather than universal, Overconfidence is highly context dependent. Our results reveal cross-cultural differences in sensitivity to incentives and differences in Overconfidence strategies, with underconfidence, accuracy, and Overconfidence. Comparing sexes, we find inconsistent results for overplacement, but that males are consistently more confident in their placement. These findings have implications for our understanding of the adaptive value of Overconfidence and its role in explaining population-level and individual-level differences in economic and psychological behavior.
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Overconfidence is universal elicitation of genuine Overconfidence ego method reveals systematic differences across domain task knowledge and incentives in four populations
Social Science Research Network, 2017Co-Authors: Michael Muthukrishna, Joseph Henrich, Wataru Toyokawa, Takeshi Hamamura, Tatsuya Kameda, Steven J HeineAbstract:Overconfidence is often assumed to be a human universal, but there remains a dearth of data systematically measuring Overconfidence across populations and contexts. Moreover, cross-cultural experiments often fail to distinguish between placement and precision and worse still, often compare population-mean placement estimates rather than individual performance subtracted from placement. Here we introduce a new method for concurrently capturing both placement and precision at an individual level based on individual performance: The Elicitation of Genuine Overconfidence (EGO) method. We conducted experiments using the EGO method, manipulating domain, task knowledge, and incentives across four populations—Japanese, Hong Kong Chinese, Euro Canadians, and East Asian Canadians. We find that previous measures of population-level Overconfidence may have been misleading; rather than universal, Overconfidence is highly context dependent. Our results reveal cross-cultural differences in sensitivity to incentives and differences in Overconfidence strategies, with underconfidence, accuracy, and Overconfidence. Comparing sexes, we find inconsistent results for overplacement, but that males are consistently more confident in their placement. These findings have implications for our understanding of the adaptive value of Overconfidence and its role in explaining population-level and individual-level differences in economic and psychological behavior.
