The Experts below are selected from a list of 6906 Experts worldwide ranked by ideXlab platform
Yoshiyasu Ono - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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On Persistent Demand Shortages: A Behavioural Approach
The Japanese Economic Review, 2014Co-Authors: Yoshiyasu Ono, Junichiro IshidaAbstract:We incorporate two sets of behavioural assumptions, fairness concerns and insatiable desire for money, into a dynamic optimization model to illuminate how they can generate Persistent aggregate demand shortages. We obtain the conditions for Persistent Unemployment and temporary Unemployment. Policy implications differ significantly between the two cases. A monetary expansion raises private consumption under temporary Unemployment but not under Persistent Unemployment. A fiscal expansion may or may not increase short-run private consumption but crowds out long-run consumption under temporary Unemployment. Under Persistent Unemployment, however, a fiscal expansion always increases private consumption. The “paradoxes of toil and flexibility” also appear.
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International Economic Interdependence and Exchange-Rate Adjustment under Persistent Stagnation
The Japanese Economic Review, 2014Co-Authors: Yoshiyasu OnoAbstract:Using a two-country, two-commodity dynamic optimization model with general homothetic preference for the commodities, this paper examines the effects of a tariff and a quota on consumption and employment in the case where Persistent Unemployment arises due to a liquidity trap. A trade restriction improves the current account, which causes the home currency to appreciate and harms the competitiveness of home firms. Therefore, home employment and consumption decrease while foreign employment and consumption increase. Tariff-quota equivalence is found to be valid. Preference, technological and policy parameter changes that improve the current account in general worsen home Unemployment.
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On Persistent Demand Shortages: A Behavioural Approach
Japanese Economic Review, 2013Co-Authors: Yoshiyasu Ono, Junichiro IshidaAbstract:type="main"> We incorporate two sets of behavioural assumptions, fairness concerns and insatiable desire for money, into a dynamic optimization model to illuminate how they can generate Persistent aggregate demand shortages. We obtain the conditions for Persistent Unemployment and temporary Unemployment. Policy implications differ significantly between the two cases. A monetary expansion raises private consumption under temporary Unemployment but not under Persistent Unemployment. A fiscal expansion may or may not increase short-run private consumption but crowds out long-run consumption under temporary Unemployment. Under Persistent Unemployment, however, a fiscal expansion always increases private consumption. The “paradoxes of toil and flexibility” also appear.
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Growth, Stagnation and Status Preference
Metroeconomica, 2011Co-Authors: Ryu-ichiro Murota, Yoshiyasu OnoAbstract:We show that an economy grows or stagnates depending on which of three objects people most esteem as tokens of status. If the main object of status preference is consumption, then a steady state with full employment is reached. If it is physical capital (which is a producible asset), then permanent growth with full employment occurs. However, if it is money (which is not a producible asset), stagnation with Persistent Unemployment arises.
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Nominal Wage Adjustment, Demand Shortage And Economic Policy
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2009Co-Authors: Yoshiyasu Ono, Junichiro IshidaAbstract:We formulate nominal wage adjustment by incorporating various concepts of fairness. By applying it into a continuous-time money-in-utility model we examine macroeconomic dynamics with and without a liquidity trap and obtain the condition for Persistent Unemployment, and that for temporary Unemployment, to occur. These conditions turn out to be critical, since policy implications significantly differ between the two cases. A monetary expansion raises private consumption under temporary Unemployment but does not under Persistent Unemployment. A fiscal expansion may or may not increase short-run private consumption but crowds out long-run consumption under temporary Unemployment. Under Persistent Unemployment, however, it always increases private consumption.
Roger E. A. Farmer - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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Animal Spirits, Persistent Unemployment and the Belief Function
Rethinking Expectations, 2013Co-Authors: Roger E. A. FarmerAbstract:This paper presents a theory of the monetary transmission mechanism in a monetary version of Farmer's (2009) model in which there are multiple equilibrium Unemployment rates. The model has two equations in common with the new-Keynesian model; the optimizing IS curve and the policy rule. It differs from the new-Keynesian model by replacing the Phillips curve with a belief function to determine expectations of nominal income growth. I estimate both models using U.S. data and I show that the Farmer monetary model fits the data better than its new-Keynesian competitor.
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Animal Spirits, Financial Crises and Persistent Unemployment
The Economic Journal, 2013Co-Authors: Roger E. A. FarmerAbstract:This paper develops a rational expectations model with multiple equilibrium Unemployment rates where the price of capital may be unbounded above. I argue that this property is an important feature of any rational-agent explanation of a financial crisis, since for the expansion phase of the crisis to be rational, investors must credibly believe that asset prices could keep increasing forever with positive probability. I explain the sudden crash in asset prices that precipitates a financial crisis as a large negative self-fulfilling shock to the expectation of the future price of capital. This shock causes a permanent reduction in wealth and consumption and a permanent increase in the Unemployment rate. My work suggests that economic policies designed to reduce the volatility of asset market movements will significantly increase economic welfare.
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Animal Spirits, Persistent Unemployment, and the Belief Function
Rethinking Expectations, 2013Co-Authors: Roger E. A. FarmerAbstract:This chapter examines the persistence of Unemployment by drawing from John Maynard Keynes' two central ideas. The first idea is that any Unemployment rate can persist as an equilibrium. The second is that the Unemployment rate that prevails is determined by animal spirits. The chapter introduces a three-equation monetary model termed “Farmer monetary model,” which replaces the New Keynesian Phillips curve with a belief function that describes how agents form expectations of future nominal income. The chapter builds and estimates the Farmer monetary model using U.S. data for the period from the first quarter of 1952 to the fourth quarter of 2007. It compares the Farmer monetary model to a New Keynesian model by computing the posterior odds ratio. It shows that the posterior odds favor the Farmer monetary model and concludes by discussing the implications of this finding for fiscal and monetary policy.
Ellen Uiters - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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Single transitions and persistence of Unemployment are associated with poor health outcomes.
BMC public health, 2019Co-Authors: Gerrie-cor Herber, Annemarie Ruijsbroek, Marc A. Koopmanschap, Karin I. Proper, Fons Van Der Lucht, Hendriek C. Boshuizen, Johan J. Polder, Ellen UitersAbstract:Background: Although job loss has been associated with decline in health, the effect of long term Unemployment is less clear and under-researched. Furthermore, the impact of an economic recession on this relationship is unclear. We investigated the associations of single transitions and persistence of Unemployment with health. We subsequently examined whether these associations are affected by the latest recession, which began in 2008. Methods: In total, 57,911 participants from the Dutch Health Interview Survey who belonged to the labour force between 2004 and 2014 were included. Based on longitudinal tax registration data, single employment transitions between time point 1 (t1) and time point 2 (t2) and Persistent Unemployment (i.e. number of years individuals were unemployed) between t1 and time point 5 (t5) were defined. General and mental health, smoking and obesity were assessed at respectively time point 3 (t3) and time point 6 (t6). Logistic regression models were performed and interactions with recession indicators (year, annual gross domestic product estimates and regional Unemployment rates) were tested. Results: Compared with individuals who stayed employed at t1 and t2, the likelihood of poor mental health at the subsequent year was significantly higher in those who became unemployed at t2. Persistent Unemployment was associated with poor mental health, especially for those who were Persistently unemployed for 5 years. Similar patterns, although less pronounced for smoking, were found for general health and obesity. Indicators of the economic recession did not modify these associations. Conclusions: Single transitions into Unemployment and Persistent Unemployment are associated with poor mental and general health, obesity, and to a lesser extend smoking. Our study suggests that re-employment might be an important strategy to improve health of unemployed individuals. The relatively extensive Dutch social security system may explain that the economic recession did not modify these associations.
Martin Zagler - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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Economic growth, structural change, and search Unemployment
Journal of Economics, 2009Co-Authors: Martin ZaglerAbstract:Economic growth is driven by structural change. Structural change does not come without a cost. The most evident social cost of structural change is high and Persistent Unemployment. This paper develops a model with an endogenously expanding service sector, where the constant flow of workers in and out of employment leads to structural Unemployment. The main finding is that the level of Unemployment is different between the initial period and the long-run equilibrium growth path, and that along the transition path, the level of Unemployment will overshoot its equilibrium level, which can explain the long-run pattern of Unemployment in most industrialized countries.
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Endogenous growth, efficiency wages and Persistent Unemployment
Review of Economics and Finance, 1999Co-Authors: Martin ZaglerAbstract:This paper establishes theoretical relations between the level of Unemployment and the economic growth rate. In a model with a monopolistically competitive manufacturing sector and a competitive innovation sector, which both pay efficiency wages, we find that the Unemployment rate exhibits an unambiguously negative impact on the long-run growth performance, as it reduces the innovative capacity of the economy. Only if efficiency levels are different across sectors, we can also establish a causal relation from the growth rate to the rate of Unemployment, since less innovation shifts the burden to induce efficiency towards the manufacturing sector, thus fostering Unemployment. (author's abstract)
Patrick L Anderson - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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Persistent Unemployment and Policy Uncertainty: Numerical Evidence from a New Approach
Business Economics, 2014Co-Authors: Patrick L AndersonAbstract:In the recovery from the United States’ 2009 recession, Unemployment has proven resistant to both aggressive fiscal policy and expansionary monetary policy. A possible explanation is the policy cost uncertainty hypothesis. This holds that managers of private firms have been rationally avoiding hiring workers in the years after 2010 because of the risk of higher future costs imposed by government policies. However, such a hypothesis cannot be directly tested in standard models of firm behavior. Thus, to formally test the policy cost uncertainty hypothesis, we use a novel “value functional” or “recursive” model of firm behavior, in which managers maximize the value of the business rather than its profits. Using this approach, we demonstrate that policy cost uncertainty affects the hiring decisions of firms, that the response to policy uncertainty is higher in some industries than others, and that the scale of the firm also affects its sensitivity to policy risk. This approach has potentially broad application within business economics, particularly in evaluating investment and hiring decisions; real options; and other aspects of uncertainty, fixed costs, and managerial flexibility.