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Jian Chen - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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the prediction for development of covid 19 in global major epidemic areas through empirical trends in china by utilizing state transition matrix model
BMC Infectious Diseases, 2020Co-Authors: Zhong Zheng, Junhua Zheng, Zhixian Yao, Xinyi Zheng, Jian ChenAbstract:Background: Since pneumonia caused by coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) broke out in Wuhan, Hubei province, China, tremendous infected cases has risen all over the world attributed to high transmissibility We managed to mathematically forecast the inflection point (IFP) of new cases in South Korea, Italy, and Iran, utilizing the transcendental model from Hubei and non-Hubei in China Methods: We extracted data from reports released by the National Health Commission of the People's Republic of China (Dec 31, 2019 to Mar 5, 2020) and World Health Organization (Jan 20, 2020 to Mar 5, 2020) as the training set to deduce the arrival of the IFP of new cases in Hubei and non-Hubei on subsequent days and the data from Mar 6 to Mar 9 as validation set New close contacts, newly confirmed cases, cumulative confirmed cases, non-severe cases, severe cases, critical cases, cured cases, and death data were collected and analyzed Using this state transition matrix model, the horizon of the IFP of time (the rate of new increment reaches zero) could be predicted in South Korean, Italy, and Iran Also, through this model, the global trend of the epidemic will be decoded to allocate international medical resources better and instruct the strategy for quarantine Results: the optimistic Scenario (non-Hubei model, daily increment rate of -3 87%), the relative Pessimistic Scenario (Hubei model, daily increment rate of -2 20%), and the relatively Pessimistic Scenario (adjustment, daily increment rate of -1 50%) were inferred and modeling from data in China Matching and fitting with these Scenarios, the IFP of time in South Korea would be Mar 6-Mar 12, Italy Mar 10-Mar 24, and Iran is Mar 10-Mar 24 The numbers of cumulative confirmed patients will reach approximately 20k in South Korea, 209k in Italy, and 226k in Iran under fitting Scenarios, respectively There should be room for improvement if these metrics continue to improve In that case, the IFP will arrive earlier than our estimation However, with the adoption of different diagnosis criteria, the variation of new cases could impose various influences in the predictive model If that happens, the IFP of increment will be higher than predicted above Conclusion: We can affirm that the end of the burst of the epidemic is still inapproachable, and the number of confirmed cases is still escalating With the augment of data, the world epidemic trend could be further predicted, and it is imperative to consummate the assignment of global medical resources to manipulate the development of COVID-19 ### Competing Interest Statement The authors have declared no competing interest ### Funding Statement The reported work was supported in part by research grants from the Natural Science Foundation of China (no 81972393, 81772705, 31570775) ### Author Declarations All relevant ethical guidelines have been followed;any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained and details of the IRB/oversight body are included in the manuscript Yes All necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived Yes I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials gov I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance) Yes I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable Yes The data that support the findings of this study are available in the National Health Commission of the Peoples Republic of China, the Health Commission of Hubei Province, and the World Health Organization
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The Prediction for Development of COVID-19 in Global Major Epidemic Areas Through Empirical Trends in China by Utilizing State Transition Matrix Model
2020Co-Authors: Zhong Zheng, Junhua Zheng, Zhixian Yao, Xinyi Zheng, Jian ChenAbstract:Abstract Background: Since pneumonia caused by coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) broke out in Wuhan, Hubei province, China, tremendous infected cases has risen all over the world attributed to high transmissibility. We managed to mathematically forecast the inflection point (IFP) of new cases in South Korea, Italy, and Iran, utilizing the transcendental model from China. Methods: Data from reports released by the National Health Commission of the People’s Republic of China (Dec 31, 2019 to Mar 5, 2020) and the World Health Organization (Jan 20, 2020 to Mar 5, 2020) were extracted as the training set and the data from Mar 6 to 9 as validation set. New close contacts, newly confirmed cases, cumulative confirmed cases, non-severe cases, severe cases, critical cases, cured cases, and death were collected and analyzed. All data were analyzed through the State Transition Matrix model. Results: the optimistic Scenario (non-Hubei model, daily increment rate of -3.87%), the cautiously optimistic Scenario (Hubei model, daily increment rate of -2.20%), and the relatively Pessimistic Scenario (adjustment, daily increment rate of -1.50%) were inferred and modeling from data in China. The IFP of time in South Korea would be Mar 6 to 12, Italy Mar 10 to 24, and Iran Mar 10 to 24. The numbers of cumulative confirmed patients will reach approximately 20k in South Korea, 209k in Italy, and 226k in Iran under fitting Scenarios, respectively. However, with the adoption of different diagnosis criteria, the variation of new cases could impose various influences in the predictive model. If that happens, the IFP of increment will be earlier than predicted above. Conclusion: The end of the pandemic is still inapproachable, and the number of confirmed cases is still escalating. With the augment of data, the world epidemic trend could be further predicted, and it is imperative to consummate the assignment of global medical resources to curb the development of COVID-19.
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the prediction for development of covid 19 in global major epidemic areas through empirical trends in china by utilizing state transition matrix model
medRxiv, 2020Co-Authors: Zhong Zheng, Junhua Zheng, Zhixian Yao, Jian ChenAbstract:Abstract Background Since pneumonia caused by coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) broke out in Wuhan, Hubei province, China, tremendous infected cases has risen all over the world attributed to high transmissibility. We managed to mathematically forecast the inflection point (IFP) of new cases in South Korea, Italy, and Iran, utilizing the transcendental model from Hubei and non-Hubei in China. Methods We extracted data from reports released by the National Health Commission of the People’s Republic of China (Dec 31, 2019 to Mar 5, 2020) and the World Health Organization (Jan 20, 2020 to Mar 5, 2020) as the training set to deduce the arrival of the IFP of new cases in Hubei and non-Hubei on subsequent days and the data from Mar 6 to Mar 9 as validation set. New close contacts, newly confirmed cases, cumulative confirmed cases, non-severe cases, severe cases, critical cases, cured cases, and death data were collected and analyzed. Using this state transition matrix model, the horizon of the IFP of time (the rate of new increment reaches zero) could be predicted in South Korean, Italy, and Iran. Also, through this model, the global trend of the epidemic will be decoded to allocate international medical resources better and instruct the strategy for quarantine. Results the optimistic Scenario (non-Hubei model, daily increment rate of −3.87%), the relative Pessimistic Scenario (Hubei model, daily increment rate of −2.20%), and the relatively Pessimistic Scenario (adjustment, daily increment rate of −1.50%) were inferred and modeling from data in China. Matching and fitting with these Scenarios, the IFP of time in South Korea would be Mar 6-Mar 12, Italy Mar 10-Mar 24, and Iran is Mar 10-Mar 24. The numbers of cumulative confirmed patients will reach approximately 20k in South Korea, 209k in Italy, and 226k in Iran under fitting Scenarios, respectively. There should be room for improvement if these metrics continue to improve. In that case, the IFP will arrive earlier than our estimation. However, with the adoption of different diagnosis criteria, the variation of new cases could impose various influences in the predictive model. If that happens, the IFP of increment will be higher than predicted above. Conclusion We can affirm that the end of the burst of the epidemic is still inapproachable, and the number of confirmed cases is still escalating. With the augment of data, the world epidemic trend could be further predicted, and it is imperative to consummate the assignment of global medical resources to manipulate the development of COVID-19.
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Utilize State Transition Matrix Model to Predict the Novel Corona Virus Infection Peak and Patient Distribution
2020Co-Authors: Junhua Zheng, Jian ChenAbstract:Abstract Background Since December 2019, a pneumonia caused by the 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) has broken out in Wuhan, Hubei province, China. The continuous rising of infected cases has imposed overwhelming pressure on public health decision and medical resource allocation in China. We managed to forecast the infection peak time in Hubei province and the severe and critical case distribution. Methods We used data resource according to cases reported by the National Health Commission of the People’s Republic of China (Jan 25, 2019, to Feb 28, 2020) as the training set to deduce the arrival of the peak infection time and the number of severe and critical cases in Wuhan on subsequent days. Medical observation, discharge, infected, non-Severe, infected and severe, cure and death data were collected and analyzed. Using this state transition matrix model, we will be able predict when the inflection peak time (the maximum open infection cases) in Hubei Province will occur. Also, we can use this model to predict the patient distribution (severe, non-severe) to better allocate medical resource. Under relative Pessimistic Scenario, the inflection peak time is April 6-April 14. The numbers of critically ill and critically ill patients will lie between 8300-9800 and 2200-2700, respectively. Results In very optimistic Scenarios (daily NCC decay rate of −10%), the peak time of open inflection cases will arrive around February 23-February 26. At the same time, there will be a peak in the numbers of severely ill and critically ill patients, between 6800-7200 and 1800-2000, respectively. In a relative optimistic Scenario (daily NCC decay rate of −5%), the inflection case peak time will arrive around February 28-March 2. The numbers of critically ill and critically ill patients will lie between 7100-7800 and 1900-2200, respectively. In a relatively Pessimistic Scenario (daily NCC decay rate of −1%), the inflection peak time does not arrive around the end of March. Estimated time is April 6-April 14. The numbers of critically ill and critically ill patients will lie between 8300-9800 and 2200-2700, respectively. We are using the diagnosis rate, mortality rate, cure rate as the 2/8 data. There should be room for improvement, if these metrics continue to improve. In that case, the peak time will arrive earlier than our estimation. Also, the severe and critical case ratios are likely to decline as the virus becomes less toxic and medical conditions improve. If that happens, the peak numbers will be lower than predicted above. Conclusion We can infer that we are still not close to the end of this outbreak and the number of critically ill patients is still climbing. Assisting critical care resources in Hubei province requires the government to consider further tilt, and it is vital to make reasonable management of doctors and medical assistance systems to curb the transmission trend.
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utilize state transition matrix model to predict the novel corona virus infection peak and patient distribution
medRxiv, 2020Co-Authors: Ke Wu, Junhua Zheng, Jian ChenAbstract:Background: Since December 2019, a pneumonia caused by the 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) has broken out in Wuhan, Hubei province, China. The continuous rising of infected cases has imposed overwhelming pressure on public health decision and medical resource allocation in China. Methods: We used data resource according to cases reported by the National Health Commission of the People’s Republic of China (Jan 25, 2019, to Feb 28, 2020) as the training set to deduce the arrival of the peak infection time and the number of severe and critical cases in Wuhan on subsequent days. Findings: In very optimistic Scenarios (daily NCC decay rate of -10%), the peak time of open inflection cases will arrive around February 23-February 26. At the same time, there will be a peak in the numbers of severely ill and critically ill patients, between 6800-7200 and 1800-2000, respectively. In a relative optimistic Scenario (daily NCC decay rate of -5%), the inflection case peak time will arrive around February 28-March 2. The numbers of critically ill and critically ill patients will lie between 7100-7800 and 1900-2200, respectively. In a relatively Pessimistic Scenario (daily NCC decay rate of -1%), the inflection peak time does not arrive around the end of March. Estimated time is April 6-April 14. The numbers of critically ill and critically ill patients will lie between 8300-9800 and 2200-2700, respectively. We are using the diagnosis rate, mortality rate, cure rate as the 2/8 data. There should be room for improvement, if these metrics continue to improve. In that case, the peak time will arrive earlier than our estimation. Also, the severe and critical case ratios are likely to decline as the virus becomes less toxic and medical conditions improve. If that happens, the peak numbers will be lower than predicted above. Interpretation: We can infer that we are still not close to the end of this outbreak and the number of critically ill patients is still climbing. Assisting critical care resources in Hubei province requires the government to consider further tilt, and it is vital to make reasonable management of doctors and medical assistance systems to curb the transmission trend. Funding Statement: This work is funded by the Natural Science Foundation of China (no. 81972393, 81772705, 31570775). Declaration of Interests: All authors declare no competing interests.
Jeremy Hawker - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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vaccinating healthcare workers against influenza to protect the vulnerable is it a good use of healthcare resources a systematic review of the evidence and an economic evaluation
Vaccine, 2006Co-Authors: Amanda Burls, Rachel Jordan, P Barton, Babatunde Olowokure, Beverley Wake, Esther Albon, Jeremy HawkerAbstract:Influenza causes substantial mortality in high-risk groups despite targeted vaccination programmes. This paper considers whether it is worth vaccinating healthcare workers (HCWs) against influenza to protect high-risk patients in a series of systematic reviews and an economic evaluation. Eighteen studies are included. Vaccination was highly effective in HCWs, with minimal adverse effects. Two trials assessed patient mortality after vaccinating HCWs, both of which showed a reduction. Despite recommendations, less than 25% of HCW in Europe and the UK are vaccinated. Five studies looked at programmes to increase uptake; these produced increases of 5%–45%. Published economic evaluations did not include patient benefit; therefore, an economic evaluation using UK data was undertaken. In the base case, vaccination was cost saving (£12/vaccinee). In the most Pessimistic Scenario it cost £405/life-year gained. Effective implementation should be a priority.
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vaccinating healthcare workers against influenza to protect the vulnerable is it a good use of healthcare resources a systematic review of the evidence and an economic evaluation
Vaccine, 2006Co-Authors: Amanda Burls, Rachel Jordan, P Barton, Babatunde Olowokure, Beverley Wake, Esther Albon, Jeremy HawkerAbstract:Influenza causes substantial mortality in high-risk groups despite targeted vaccination programmes. This paper considers whether it is worth vaccinating healthcare workers (HCWs) against influenza to protect high-risk patients in a series of systematic reviews and an economic evaluation. Eighteen studies are included. Vaccination was highly effective in HCWs, with minimal adverse effects. Two trials assessed patient mortality after vaccinating HCWs, both of which showed a reduction. Despite recommendations, less than 25% of HCW in Europe and the UK are vaccinated. Five studies looked at programmes to increase uptake; these produced increases of 5%–45%. Published economic evaluations did not include patient benefit; therefore, an economic evaluation using UK data was undertaken. In the base case, vaccination was cost saving (£12/vaccinee). In the most Pessimistic Scenario it cost £405/life-year gained. Effective implementation should be a priority.
Babatunde Olowokure - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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vaccinating healthcare workers against influenza to protect the vulnerable is it a good use of healthcare resources a systematic review of the evidence and an economic evaluation
Vaccine, 2006Co-Authors: Amanda Burls, Rachel Jordan, P Barton, Babatunde Olowokure, Beverley Wake, Esther Albon, Jeremy HawkerAbstract:Influenza causes substantial mortality in high-risk groups despite targeted vaccination programmes. This paper considers whether it is worth vaccinating healthcare workers (HCWs) against influenza to protect high-risk patients in a series of systematic reviews and an economic evaluation. Eighteen studies are included. Vaccination was highly effective in HCWs, with minimal adverse effects. Two trials assessed patient mortality after vaccinating HCWs, both of which showed a reduction. Despite recommendations, less than 25% of HCW in Europe and the UK are vaccinated. Five studies looked at programmes to increase uptake; these produced increases of 5%–45%. Published economic evaluations did not include patient benefit; therefore, an economic evaluation using UK data was undertaken. In the base case, vaccination was cost saving (£12/vaccinee). In the most Pessimistic Scenario it cost £405/life-year gained. Effective implementation should be a priority.
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vaccinating healthcare workers against influenza to protect the vulnerable is it a good use of healthcare resources a systematic review of the evidence and an economic evaluation
Vaccine, 2006Co-Authors: Amanda Burls, Rachel Jordan, P Barton, Babatunde Olowokure, Beverley Wake, Esther Albon, Jeremy HawkerAbstract:Influenza causes substantial mortality in high-risk groups despite targeted vaccination programmes. This paper considers whether it is worth vaccinating healthcare workers (HCWs) against influenza to protect high-risk patients in a series of systematic reviews and an economic evaluation. Eighteen studies are included. Vaccination was highly effective in HCWs, with minimal adverse effects. Two trials assessed patient mortality after vaccinating HCWs, both of which showed a reduction. Despite recommendations, less than 25% of HCW in Europe and the UK are vaccinated. Five studies looked at programmes to increase uptake; these produced increases of 5%–45%. Published economic evaluations did not include patient benefit; therefore, an economic evaluation using UK data was undertaken. In the base case, vaccination was cost saving (£12/vaccinee). In the most Pessimistic Scenario it cost £405/life-year gained. Effective implementation should be a priority.
Rachel Jordan - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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vaccinating healthcare workers against influenza to protect the vulnerable is it a good use of healthcare resources a systematic review of the evidence and an economic evaluation
Vaccine, 2006Co-Authors: Amanda Burls, Rachel Jordan, P Barton, Babatunde Olowokure, Beverley Wake, Esther Albon, Jeremy HawkerAbstract:Influenza causes substantial mortality in high-risk groups despite targeted vaccination programmes. This paper considers whether it is worth vaccinating healthcare workers (HCWs) against influenza to protect high-risk patients in a series of systematic reviews and an economic evaluation. Eighteen studies are included. Vaccination was highly effective in HCWs, with minimal adverse effects. Two trials assessed patient mortality after vaccinating HCWs, both of which showed a reduction. Despite recommendations, less than 25% of HCW in Europe and the UK are vaccinated. Five studies looked at programmes to increase uptake; these produced increases of 5%–45%. Published economic evaluations did not include patient benefit; therefore, an economic evaluation using UK data was undertaken. In the base case, vaccination was cost saving (£12/vaccinee). In the most Pessimistic Scenario it cost £405/life-year gained. Effective implementation should be a priority.
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vaccinating healthcare workers against influenza to protect the vulnerable is it a good use of healthcare resources a systematic review of the evidence and an economic evaluation
Vaccine, 2006Co-Authors: Amanda Burls, Rachel Jordan, P Barton, Babatunde Olowokure, Beverley Wake, Esther Albon, Jeremy HawkerAbstract:Influenza causes substantial mortality in high-risk groups despite targeted vaccination programmes. This paper considers whether it is worth vaccinating healthcare workers (HCWs) against influenza to protect high-risk patients in a series of systematic reviews and an economic evaluation. Eighteen studies are included. Vaccination was highly effective in HCWs, with minimal adverse effects. Two trials assessed patient mortality after vaccinating HCWs, both of which showed a reduction. Despite recommendations, less than 25% of HCW in Europe and the UK are vaccinated. Five studies looked at programmes to increase uptake; these produced increases of 5%–45%. Published economic evaluations did not include patient benefit; therefore, an economic evaluation using UK data was undertaken. In the base case, vaccination was cost saving (£12/vaccinee). In the most Pessimistic Scenario it cost £405/life-year gained. Effective implementation should be a priority.
Amanda Burls - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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vaccinating healthcare workers against influenza to protect the vulnerable is it a good use of healthcare resources a systematic review of the evidence and an economic evaluation
Vaccine, 2006Co-Authors: Amanda Burls, Rachel Jordan, P Barton, Babatunde Olowokure, Beverley Wake, Esther Albon, Jeremy HawkerAbstract:Influenza causes substantial mortality in high-risk groups despite targeted vaccination programmes. This paper considers whether it is worth vaccinating healthcare workers (HCWs) against influenza to protect high-risk patients in a series of systematic reviews and an economic evaluation. Eighteen studies are included. Vaccination was highly effective in HCWs, with minimal adverse effects. Two trials assessed patient mortality after vaccinating HCWs, both of which showed a reduction. Despite recommendations, less than 25% of HCW in Europe and the UK are vaccinated. Five studies looked at programmes to increase uptake; these produced increases of 5%–45%. Published economic evaluations did not include patient benefit; therefore, an economic evaluation using UK data was undertaken. In the base case, vaccination was cost saving (£12/vaccinee). In the most Pessimistic Scenario it cost £405/life-year gained. Effective implementation should be a priority.
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vaccinating healthcare workers against influenza to protect the vulnerable is it a good use of healthcare resources a systematic review of the evidence and an economic evaluation
Vaccine, 2006Co-Authors: Amanda Burls, Rachel Jordan, P Barton, Babatunde Olowokure, Beverley Wake, Esther Albon, Jeremy HawkerAbstract:Influenza causes substantial mortality in high-risk groups despite targeted vaccination programmes. This paper considers whether it is worth vaccinating healthcare workers (HCWs) against influenza to protect high-risk patients in a series of systematic reviews and an economic evaluation. Eighteen studies are included. Vaccination was highly effective in HCWs, with minimal adverse effects. Two trials assessed patient mortality after vaccinating HCWs, both of which showed a reduction. Despite recommendations, less than 25% of HCW in Europe and the UK are vaccinated. Five studies looked at programmes to increase uptake; these produced increases of 5%–45%. Published economic evaluations did not include patient benefit; therefore, an economic evaluation using UK data was undertaken. In the base case, vaccination was cost saving (£12/vaccinee). In the most Pessimistic Scenario it cost £405/life-year gained. Effective implementation should be a priority.