The Experts below are selected from a list of 124560 Experts worldwide ranked by ideXlab platform
Lisa J White - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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human Population Movement and behavioural patterns in malaria hotspots on the thai myanmar border implications for malaria elimination
Malaria Journal, 2019Co-Authors: Sayambhu Saita, Wirichada Panngum, Suparat Phuanukoonnon, Patchara Sriwichai, Tassanee Silawan, Lisa J White, Daniel M ParkerAbstract:Malaria is heterogeneously distributed across landscapes. Human Population Movement (HPM) could link sub-regions with varying levels of transmission, leading to the persistence of disease even in very low transmission settings. Malaria along the Thai–Myanmar border has been decreasing, but remains heterogeneous. This study aimed to measure HPM, associated predictors of travel, and HPM correlates of self-reported malaria among people living within malaria hotspots. 526 individuals from 279 households in two malaria hotspot areas were included in a prospective observational study. A baseline cross-sectional study was conducted at the beginning, recording both individual- and household-level characteristics. Individual Movement and travel patterns were repeatedly observed over one dry season month (March) and one wet season month (May). Descriptive statistics, random effects logistic regressions, and logistic regressions were used to describe and determine associations between HPM patterns, individual-, household-factors, and self-reported malaria. Trips were more common in the dry season. Malaria risk was related to the number of days doing outdoor activities in the dry season, especially trips to Myanmar, to forest areas, and overnight trips. Trips to visit forest areas were more common among participants aged 20–39, males, individuals with low income, low education, and especially among individuals with forest-related occupations. Overnight trips were more common among males, and individual with forest-related occupations. Forty-five participants reported having confirmed malaria infection within the last year. The main place of malaria blood examination and treatment was malaria post and malaria clinic, with participants usually waiting for 2–3 days from onset fever to seeking diagnosis. Individuals using bed nets, living in houses with elevated floors, and houses that received indoor residual spraying in the last year were less likely to report malaria infection. An understanding of HPM and concurrent malaria dynamics is important for consideration of targeted public health interventions. Furthermore, diagnosis and treatment centres must be capable of quickly diagnosing and treating infections regardless of HPM. Coverage of diagnosis and treatment centres should be broad, maintained in areas bordering malaria hotspots, and available to all febrile individuals.
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hitting a moving target a model for malaria elimination in the presence of Population Movement
PLOS ONE, 2015Co-Authors: Sheetal P Silal, Lisa J White, Francesca Little, Karen I BarnesAbstract:South Africa is committed to eliminating malaria with a goal of zero local transmission by 2018. Malaria elimination strategies may be unsuccessful if they focus only on vector biology, and ignore the mobility patterns of humans, particularly where the majority of infections are imported. In the first study in Mpumalanga Province in South Africa designed for this purpose, a metaPopulation model is developed to assess the impact of their proposed elimination-focused policy interventions. A stochastic, non-linear, ordinary-differential equation model is fitted to malaria data from Mpumalanga and neighbouring Maputo Province in Mozambique. Further scaling-up of vector control is predicted to lead to a minimal reduction in local infections, while mass drug administration and focal screening and treatment at the Mpumalanga-Maputo border are predicted to have only a short-lived impact. Source reduction in Maputo Province is predicted to generate large reductions in local infections through stemming imported infections. The mathematical model predicts malaria elimination to be possible only when imported infections are treated before entry or eliminated at the source suggesting that a regionally focused strategy appears needed, for achieving malaria elimination in Mpumalanga and South Africa.
Lehan Xiao - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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impact of Population Movement on the spread of 2019 ncov in china
Emerging microbes & infections, 2020Co-Authors: Chi Zhang, Cai Chen, Wei Shen, Feng Tang, Hao Lei, Yu Xie, Zicheng Cao, Kang Tang, Junbo Bai, Lehan XiaoAbstract:Since Dec 2019, China has experienced an outbreak caused by a novel coronavirus, 2019-nCoV. A travel ban was implemented for Wuhan, Hubei on Jan 23 to slow down the outbreak. We found a significant positive correlation between Population influx from Wuhan and confirmed cases in other cities across China (R2 = 0.85, P < 0.001), especially cities in Hubei (R2 = 0.88, P < 0.001). Removing the travel restriction would have increased 118% (91%-172%) of the overall cases for the coming week, and a travel ban taken three days or a week earlier would have reduced 47% (26%-58%) and 83% (78%-89%) of the early cases. We would expect a 61% (48%-92%) increase of overall cumulative cases without any restrictions on returning residents, and 11% (8%-16%) increase if the travel ban stays in place for Hubei. Cities from Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta, and Capital Economic Circle regions are at higher risk.
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impact of Population Movement on the spread of 2019 ncov in china
Social Science Research Network, 2020Co-Authors: Chi Zhang, Cai Chen, Wei Shen, Feng Tang, Hao Lei, Yu Xie, Zicheng Cao, Kang Tang, Junbo Bai, Lehan XiaoAbstract:Background: Since Dec 2019, Wuhan and other cities in China have experienced an outbreak caused by a novel coronavirus, 2019-nCoV. Even worse, this outbreak overlapped with the traditional Chinese Spring Festival, a time when billions of people travel across the country. The government has implemented a number of policies and interventions, including a travel ban from and to Wuhan since Jan 23, 2020, an extension of the Spring Festival holiday, etc. However, a considerable volume of Population Movement had already occurred before the travel ban, potentially causing the spread of cases to other cities in China. As people return to their place of work, this reflux of Population Movement is also likely to facilitate transmission of 2019-nCoV. Thus, it is urgent to evaluate the impact of existing Population Movement and future Population reflux on the spread of 2019-nCoV, to provide evidence for precise control of the epidemic. Methods: We used domestic human mobility data from January to February (2019-20) to infer the Population Movement network between cities in China. We obtained data on confirmed cases from the daily official reports of the health commission of 34 provincial-level administrative units and 341 city-level units, from the time of the outbreak to Feb 14, 2020. We used a linear regression model to simulate the relationship between Population flow and imported cases, and evaluate the deduction and risk of imported cases in different scenarios of human Movement. Findings: There is a statistically significant positive correlation between Population influx from Wuhan and confirmed cases in other cities across China (R2=0×85, P <0×001), especially cities in Hubei (R2=0×88, P <0×001). Compared with the implemented travel ban on Jan 23, no restrictions may have increased 118% (91%-172%) of the overall cases [13,857 (10,920-20,574) more cases] for the coming week, and a travel ban taken three days earlier would have reduced 47% (26%-58%) of the cases [3,103 (1,732-3,820) cases] for the early stage of spreading [83% (78%-89%) protection rate for a travel ban a week earlier]. And we would expect a 61% (48%-92%) [30,490 (24,015-46,074) cases] increase of overall cumulative cases without any restrictions on returning residents and an 11% (8%-16%) [5,275 (4,188-7,895) cases] increase of overall cumulative cases if the travel ban stays in place for Hubei. Cities with more Population reflux in the future from Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta, and Capital Economic Circle regions are at higher risk. Interpretation: Given that Population Movement plays an important role in spreading of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19), there is high risk for emerging new outbreak centers, large cities with huge amount of Population reflux in particular. Sustained public health interventions should be strengthened for these cities. Funding Statement: This project was supported by National Key R&D Program of China (2020YFC0840900), National Natural Science Foundation of China (31970643 & 81961128002), Shenzhen Science and Technology Program (Grant No. KQTD20180411143323605), and Guangdong Frontier and Key Tech Innovation Program (2019B020228001 & 2019B111103001). Declaration of Interests: The authors declare no competing interests.
Hualiang Lin - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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Population Movement city closure in wuhan and geographical expansion of the covid 19 infection in china in january 2020
Clinical Infectious Diseases, 2020Co-Authors: Kun Liu, Guanghu Zhu, Fei Tian, Yuan Gao, Qiyong Liu, Shuxuan Song, Shiyu Zhang, Zhongjun Shao, Hualiang LinAbstract:BACKGROUND: The unprecedented outbreak of corona virus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infection in Wuhan City has caused global concern; the outflow of the Population from Wuhan was believed to be a main reason for the rapid and large-scale spread of the disease, so the government implemented a city-closure measure to prevent its transmission considering the large amount of travel before the Chinese New Year. METHODS: Based on the daily reported new cases and the Population-Movement data between 1 and 31 January, we examined the effects of Population outflow from Wuhan on the geographical expansion of the infection in other provinces and cities of China, as well as the impacts of the city closure in Wuhan using different closing-date scenarios. RESULTS: We observed a significantly positive association between Population Movement and the number of the COVID-19 cases. The spatial distribution of cases per unit of outflow Population indicated that the infection in some areas with a large outflow of Population might have been underestimated, such as Henan and Hunan provinces. Further analysis revealed that if the city-closure policy had been implemented 2 days earlier, 1420 (95% confidence interval, 1059-1833) cases could have been prevented, and if 2 days later, 1462 (1090-1886) more cases would have been possible. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that Population Movement might be one important trigger for the transmission of COVID-19 infection in China, and the policy of city closure is effective in controlling the epidemic.
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Population Movement city closure and spatial transmission of the 2019 ncov infection in china
medRxiv, 2020Co-Authors: Guanghu Zhu, Fei Tian, Yuan Gao, Qiyong Liu, Hualiang LinAbstract:Abstract The outbreak of pneumonia caused by a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in Wuhan City of China obtained global concern, the Population outflow from Wuhan has contributed to spatial expansion in other parts of China. We examined the effects of Population outflow from Wuhan on the 2019-nCoV transmission in other provinces and cities of China, as well as the impacts of the city closure in Wuhan. We observed a significantly positive association between Population Movement and the number of cases. Further analysis revealed that if the city closure policy was implemented two days earlier, 1420 (95% CI: 1059, 1833) cases could be prevented, and if two days later, 1462 (95% CI: 1090, 1886) more cases would be possible. Our findings suggest that Population Movement might be one important trigger of the 2019-nCoV infection transmission in China, and the policy of city closure is effective to prevent the epidemic.
Daniel M Parker - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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human Population Movement and behavioural patterns in malaria hotspots on the thai myanmar border implications for malaria elimination
Malaria Journal, 2019Co-Authors: Sayambhu Saita, Wirichada Panngum, Suparat Phuanukoonnon, Patchara Sriwichai, Tassanee Silawan, Lisa J White, Daniel M ParkerAbstract:Malaria is heterogeneously distributed across landscapes. Human Population Movement (HPM) could link sub-regions with varying levels of transmission, leading to the persistence of disease even in very low transmission settings. Malaria along the Thai–Myanmar border has been decreasing, but remains heterogeneous. This study aimed to measure HPM, associated predictors of travel, and HPM correlates of self-reported malaria among people living within malaria hotspots. 526 individuals from 279 households in two malaria hotspot areas were included in a prospective observational study. A baseline cross-sectional study was conducted at the beginning, recording both individual- and household-level characteristics. Individual Movement and travel patterns were repeatedly observed over one dry season month (March) and one wet season month (May). Descriptive statistics, random effects logistic regressions, and logistic regressions were used to describe and determine associations between HPM patterns, individual-, household-factors, and self-reported malaria. Trips were more common in the dry season. Malaria risk was related to the number of days doing outdoor activities in the dry season, especially trips to Myanmar, to forest areas, and overnight trips. Trips to visit forest areas were more common among participants aged 20–39, males, individuals with low income, low education, and especially among individuals with forest-related occupations. Overnight trips were more common among males, and individual with forest-related occupations. Forty-five participants reported having confirmed malaria infection within the last year. The main place of malaria blood examination and treatment was malaria post and malaria clinic, with participants usually waiting for 2–3 days from onset fever to seeking diagnosis. Individuals using bed nets, living in houses with elevated floors, and houses that received indoor residual spraying in the last year were less likely to report malaria infection. An understanding of HPM and concurrent malaria dynamics is important for consideration of targeted public health interventions. Furthermore, diagnosis and treatment centres must be capable of quickly diagnosing and treating infections regardless of HPM. Coverage of diagnosis and treatment centres should be broad, maintained in areas bordering malaria hotspots, and available to all febrile individuals.
Peter Pollner - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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countrywide Population Movement monitoring using mobile devices generated big data during the covid 19 crisis
Scientific Reports, 2021Co-Authors: Miklos Szocska, Peter Pollner, Istvan Schiszler, Tamas Joo, Tamas Palicz, Martin Mckee, Aron Asztalos, Laszlo Csaba Bencze, Mor KapronczayAbstract:Mobile phones have been used to monitor mobility changes during the COVID-19 pandemic but surprisingly few studies addressed in detail the implementation of practical applications involving whole Populations. We report a method of generating a "mobility-index" and a "stay-at-home/resting-index" based on aggregated anonymous Call Detail Records of almost all subscribers in Hungary, which tracks all phones, examining their strengths and weaknesses, comparing it with Community Mobility Reports from Google, limited to smartphone data. The impact of policy changes, such as school closures, could be identified with sufficient granularity to capture a rush to shops prior to imposition of restrictions. Anecdotal reports of large scale Movement of Hungarians to holiday homes were confirmed. At the national level, our results correlated well with Google mobility data, but there were some differences at weekends and national holidays, which can be explained by methodological differences. Mobile phones offer a means to analyse Population Movement but there are several technical and privacy issues. Overcoming these, our method is a practical and inexpensive way forward, achieving high levels of accuracy and resolution, especially where uptake of smartphones is modest, although it is not an alternative to smartphone-based solutions used for contact tracing and quarantine monitoring.
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putting big data in action saving lives with countrywide Population Movement monitoring using mobile devices during the covid 19 crisis
medRxiv, 2020Co-Authors: Miklos Szocska, Peter Pollner, Istvan Schiszler, Tamas Joo, Tamas Palicz, Martin Mckee, Magyar Telekom Nyrt, Telenor Magyarorszag Zrt, Adam Sohonyai, Jozsef SzokeAbstract:Abstract Many countries have implemented strict social distancing measures in the hope of reducing transmission of SARS-CoV-2 but the effectiveness of these measures is determined by the willingness of Populations to comply with restrictions. Consequently, a system of monitoring Population Movement using existing data sources can inform those making decisions about policy responses to the COVID-19 pandemic. We describe a collaboration with all 3 major domestic telecommunication companies in Hungary to use aggregated anonymous mobile phone usage data to calculate two indices for assessing the effect of Movement restrictions: a “mobility-index” and a “stay-at-home (or resting) index”. The strengths and weaknesses of this approach are compared with the smartphone-based, COVID-19 Community Mobility Reports from Google. Data generated by mobile phones have long been identified as a potential means to analyse mass Population Movement, but its operationalisation raises several technical questions, such as making sense of Call Detail Records, collation of data from different mobile network providers, and personal data protection concerns. The method described here addresses these issues and offers an effective and inexpensive tool to monitor the impact of social distancing measures, achieving high levels of accuracy and resolution. Especially in Populations where uptake of smartphones is modest, this method has certain advantages over app-based solutions, with greater Population coverage, but it is not an alternative to smartphone-based solutions used for contact tracing and quarantine monitoring. We believe that this method can easily be adapted by other countries.