Qualitative Risk Assessment

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Ismaïla Seck - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.

  • Using a participatory Qualitative Risk Assessment to estimate the Risk of introduction and spread of transboundary animal diseases in scarce‐data environments
    Transboundary and emerging diseases, 2020
    Co-Authors: Cécile Squarzoni‐diaw, Elena Arsevska, Sana Kalthoum, Pachka Hammami, Jamel Cherni, Assia Daoudi, Mohamed Karim Laoufi, Yassir Lezaar, Kechna Rachid, Ismaïla Seck
    Abstract:

    This article presents a participative and iterative Qualitative Risk Assessment framework that can be used to evaluate the spatial variation of the Risk of infectious animal disease introduction and spread on a national scale. The framework was developed through regional training action workshops and field activities. The active involvement of national animal health services enabled the identification, collection and hierarchization of Risk factors. Quantitative data were collected in the field, and expert knowledge was integrated to adjust the available data at regional level. Experts categorized and combined the Risk factors into ordinal levels of Risk per epidemiological unit to ease implementation of Risk-based surveillance in the field. The framework was used to perform a Qualitative Assessment of the Risk of introduction and spread of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in Tunisia as part of a series of workshops held between 2015 and 2018. The experts in attendance combined Risk factors such as epidemiological status, transboundary movements, proximity to the borders and accessibility to assess the Risk of FMD outbreaks in Tunisia. Out of the 2,075 Tunisian imadas, 23 were at a very high Risk of FMD introduction, mainly at the borders; and 59 were at a very high Risk of FMD spread. To validate the model, the results were compared to the FMD outbreaks notified by Tunisia during the 2014 FMD epizootic. Using a spatial Poisson model, a significant alignment between the very high and high-Risk categories of spread and the occurrence of FMD outbreaks was shown. The relative Risk of FMD occurrence was thus 3.2 higher for imadas in the very high and high spread Risk categories than for imadas in the low and negligible spread Risk categories. Our results show that the Qualitative Risk Assessment framework can be a useful decision support tool for Risk-based disease surveillance and control, in particular in scarce-data environments.

Frank Koenen - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.

  • Qualitative Risk Assessment in a data-scarce environment: a model to assess the impact of control measures on spread of African Swine Fever.
    Preventive veterinary medicine, 2011
    Co-Authors: Barbara Wieland, Sofie Dhollander, Mo Salman, Frank Koenen
    Abstract:

    In the absence of data, Qualitative Risk Assessment frameworks have proved useful to assess Risks associated with animal health diseases. As part of a scientific opinion for the European Commission (EC) on African Swine Fever (ASF), a working group of the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) assessed the Risk of ASF remaining endemic in Trans Caucasus Countries (TCC) and the Russian Federation (RF) and the Risk of ASF becoming endemic in the EU if disease were introduced. The aim was to develop a tool to evaluate how current control or preventive measures mitigate the Risk of spread and giving decision makers the means to review how strengthening of surveillance and control measures would mitigate the Risk of disease spread. Based on a generic model outlining disease introduction, spread and endemicity in a region, the impact of Risk mitigation measures on spread of disease was assessed for specific Risk questions. The resulting hierarchical models consisted of key steps containing several sub-steps. For each step of the Risk pathways Risk estimates were determined by the expert group based on existing data or through expert opinion elicitation. Risk estimates were combined using two different combination matrices, one to combine estimates of independent steps and one to combine conditional probabilities. The Qualitative Risk Assessment indicated a moderate Risk that ASF will remain endemic in current affected areas in the TCC and RF and a high Risk of spread to currently unaffected areas. If introduced into the EU, ASF is likely to be controlled effectively in the production sector with high or limited biosecurity. In the free range production sector, however, there is a moderate Risk of ASF becoming endemic due to wild boar contact, non-compliance with animal movement bans, and difficult access to all individual pigs upon implementation of control measures. This study demonstrated the advantages of a systematic framework to assist an expert panel to carry out a Risk Assessment as it helped experts to disassociate steps in the Risk pathway and to overcome preconceived notions of final Risk estimates. The approach presented here shows how a Qualitative Risk Assessment framework can address animal diseases with complexity in their spread and control measures and how transparency of the resulting estimates was achieved.

Cécile Squarzoni‐diaw - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.

  • Using a participatory Qualitative Risk Assessment to estimate the Risk of introduction and spread of transboundary animal diseases in scarce‐data environments
    Transboundary and emerging diseases, 2020
    Co-Authors: Cécile Squarzoni‐diaw, Elena Arsevska, Sana Kalthoum, Pachka Hammami, Jamel Cherni, Assia Daoudi, Mohamed Karim Laoufi, Yassir Lezaar, Kechna Rachid, Ismaïla Seck
    Abstract:

    This article presents a participative and iterative Qualitative Risk Assessment framework that can be used to evaluate the spatial variation of the Risk of infectious animal disease introduction and spread on a national scale. The framework was developed through regional training action workshops and field activities. The active involvement of national animal health services enabled the identification, collection and hierarchization of Risk factors. Quantitative data were collected in the field, and expert knowledge was integrated to adjust the available data at regional level. Experts categorized and combined the Risk factors into ordinal levels of Risk per epidemiological unit to ease implementation of Risk-based surveillance in the field. The framework was used to perform a Qualitative Assessment of the Risk of introduction and spread of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in Tunisia as part of a series of workshops held between 2015 and 2018. The experts in attendance combined Risk factors such as epidemiological status, transboundary movements, proximity to the borders and accessibility to assess the Risk of FMD outbreaks in Tunisia. Out of the 2,075 Tunisian imadas, 23 were at a very high Risk of FMD introduction, mainly at the borders; and 59 were at a very high Risk of FMD spread. To validate the model, the results were compared to the FMD outbreaks notified by Tunisia during the 2014 FMD epizootic. Using a spatial Poisson model, a significant alignment between the very high and high-Risk categories of spread and the occurrence of FMD outbreaks was shown. The relative Risk of FMD occurrence was thus 3.2 higher for imadas in the very high and high spread Risk categories than for imadas in the low and negligible spread Risk categories. Our results show that the Qualitative Risk Assessment framework can be a useful decision support tool for Risk-based disease surveillance and control, in particular in scarce-data environments.

W J Fletcher - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.

  • the application of Qualitative Risk Assessment methodology to prioritize issues for fisheries management
    Ices Journal of Marine Science, 2005
    Co-Authors: W J Fletcher
    Abstract:

    Implementing more holistic forms of fisheries management (e.g. Ecologically Sustainable Development (ESD), Ecosystem-Based Fisheries Management) usually increases the number and scope of impacts requiring Assessment. This study examined the effectiveness of a Qualitative Risk Assessment process, developed as part of a National ESD framework, for prioritizing issues across the seven most valuable Western Australian commercial fisheries. Structured stakeholder workshops were used to identify issues across three ecological areas: retained species (i.e. target and by-product), non-retained (i.e. discarded and protected) species, and the broader ecosystem for each fishery. The Risk associated with each issue was assessed using one of five sets of consequence criteria specifically developed to cover fishery-related impacts. The Risk scores, for which suitably detailed justifications were written, determined the level of reporting and management required for each issue. Despite an additional 96 “non-target species issues” being identified at the workshops from a total of 115 issues, of the 27 issues requiring explicit management actions, just six new issues were added by this process. In addition, it identified where modifications of some of the existing arrangements were necessary. Finally, the system significantly improved stakeholder involvement and therefore acceptance of the outcomes. Given this success, Risk Assessment has now been applied to all Western Australia's export fisheries and to the development or review of many other systems, thereby improving the entire management process.

J. Byers - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.

  • Qualitative Risk Assessment For An LNG Refueling Station And Review Of Relevant Safety Issues, Revision 2
    2014
    Co-Authors: N. Siu, J.s. Herring, Lee C. Cadwallader, Wendy J. Reece, J. Byers
    Abstract:

    This report is a Qualitative Assessment of the public and worker Risk involved with the operation of liquefied natural gas vehicle refueling facility.

  • Qualitative Risk Assessment for an LNG Refueling Station and Review of Relevant Safety Issues
    1998
    Co-Authors: N. Siu, L. Cadwallader, W. Reece, J.s. Herring, J. Byers
    Abstract:

    This report is a Qualitative Assessment of the public and worker Risk involved with the operation of a liquefied natural gas (LNG) vehicle refueling facility. This study includes facility maintenance and operations, tank truck deliveries, and end-use vehicle fueling; it does not treat the Risks of LNG vehicles on roadways. Accident initiating events are identified by using a Master Logic Diagram, a Failure Modes and Effects Analysis, and historical operating experiences. The event trees were drawn to depict possible sequences of mitigating events following the initiating events. The phenomenology of LNG and other vehicle fuels is discussed to characterize the hazard posed by LNG usage. Based on the Risk modeling and analysis, recommendations are given to improve the safety of LNG refueling stations in the areas of procedures and training, station design, and the dissemination of ``best practice`` information throughout the LNG community.

  • Interim Qualitative Risk Assessment for an LNG refueling station and review of relevant safety issues
    1997
    Co-Authors: N. Siu, S. Herring, L. Cadwallader, W. Reece, J. Byers
    Abstract:

    This report is a Qualitative Assessment of the public and worker Risk involved with the operation of a liquefied natural (LNG) vehicle refueling facility. This study includes facility maintenance and operations, tanker truck delivers and end-use vehicle fueling; it does not treat the Risks of LNG vehicles on roadways. Accident initiating events are identified by using a Master Logic Diagram, a Failure Modes and Effects analysis and historical operating experiences. The event trees were drawn to depict possible sequences of mitigating events following the initiating events. The phenomenology of LNG and other vehicle fuels is discussed to characterize the hazard posed by LNG usage. Based on the Risk modeling and analysis, recommendations are given to improve the safety of LNG refueling stations in the areas of procedures and training, station design, and the dissemination of best practice information throughout the LNG community.