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Sabine Knapp - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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Predicting Traffic and Risk Exposure in the Maritime Industry
Safety, 2019Co-Authors: Stephen Vander Hoorn, Sabine KnappAbstract:Maritime regulators, port authorities, and industry require the ability to predict Risk Exposure of shipping activities at a micro and macro level to optimize asset allocation and to mitigate and prevent incidents. This article introduces the concept of a strategic planning tool by making use of the multi-layered Risk estimation framework (MLREF), which accounts for ship specific Risk, vessel traffic densities, and meets ocean conditions at the macro level. This article’s main contribution is to provide a traffic and Risk Exposure prediction routine that allows the traffic forecast to be distributed across the shipping route network to allow for predicting scenarios at the macro level (e.g., covering larger geographic areas) and micro level (e.g., passage way, particular route of interest). In addition, the micro level is introduced by providing a theoretical idea to integrate location specific spatial rate ratios along with the effect of the Risk control option to perform sensitivity analysis of Risk Exposure prediction scenarios. Aspects of the Risk Exposure estimation routine were tested via a pilot study for the Australian region using a comprehensive and unique combination of datasets. Sources of uncertainties for Risk assessments are described in general and discussed along with the potential for future developments and improvements.
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Evaluation of total Risk Exposure and insurance premiums in the maritime industry
Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, 2017Co-Authors: Sabine Knapp, Christiaan HeijAbstract:Abstract The empirical evaluation of maritime Risk Exposure is based on the monetary value at Risk (MVR) that incorporates individual safety quality data of about 130,000 vessels, insurable values related to various potential damages, and proxies for fractions of values lost at incidents. MVR provides a tool to enhance strategic planning of maritime administrations and insurance providers, which is illustrated by a high level comparison of annual Risk Exposure with insurance premiums for 2010–2014. The analysis reveals a global annual insurable value of 30.6 trillion USD with associated annual MVR of 38.8 billion USD for very serious and serious incidents. Although oil tankers show the highest Risk Exposure (1.75 million USD per tanker per year), safety qualities are found to be best for this ship type (1.4% annual incident Risk) and worst for container vessels (2.8%). Annual growth rates in total Risk Exposure are mostly positive with highest value for dry bulk carriers (27.8%), whereas Risk Exposure tends to decline for pollution of oil tankers (−2.0%) and passenger vessels (−11.3%), and for loss of life of oil tankers (−1.9%) and dry bulk carriers (−1.4%). Comparison across administrative dimensions reveals that most Risk Exposure lies with old open registries and with beneficial owners and the Document of Compliance companies located in high income countries. Comparison with global insurance premiums suggests reasonably adequate coverage of maritime Risks (excluding cargo) with under-insurance of Risk by around 5% (about 1 billion USD per year), with some uncertainties remaining for actual loss fractions of the involved damages.
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Evaluation of total Risk Exposure and insurance premiums in the maritime industry
2016Co-Authors: Sabine Knapp, Christiaan HeijAbstract:This study provides an empirical evaluation of maritime Risk Exposure expressed as the monetary value at Risk (MVR), which incorporates life of crew and passengers, vessel value of hull and machinery, carried cargo value, third party liabilities, and potential external damages like pollution. MVR is based on individual safety quality data of about 130,000 vessels, on insurable values related to various potential damages, and on proxies for fractions of values lost at incidents. MVR provides a tool to enhance strategic planning of maritime administrations and insurance providers, which is illustrated by a high level comparison of annual Risk Exposure with insurance premiums for 2010 to 2014. The analysis reveals a global annual insurable value of 30.6 trillion USD with associated annual MVR of 38.8 billion USD for very serious and serious incidents. Although oil tankers show the highest Risk Exposure (1.75 million USD per tanker per year), safety qualities are found to be best for this ship type (1.4% annual incident Risk) and worst for container vessels (2.8%). Annual growth rates in total Risk Exposure are mostly positive with highest value for dry bulk carriers (27.8%), whereas Risk Exposure tends to decline for pollution of oil tankers (-2.0%) and passenger vessels (-11.3%), and for loss of life of oil tankers (-1.9%) and dry bulk carriers (-1.4%) but not of passenger vessels (6.9%). A comparison across administrative dimensions reveals that most Risk Exposure lies with old open registries and with beneficial owners and DoC companies located in high income countries. Comparison with global insurance premiums suggests reasonably adequate coverage of maritime Risks (excluding cargo). Our analysis indicates under-insurance of Risk by around 5%, corresponding to about 1 billion USD per year, with some uncertainties remaining for the actual loss fractions of the various involved damages.
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a multi layered Risk Exposure assessment approach for the shipping industry
Transportation Research Part A-policy and Practice, 2015Co-Authors: Stephen Vander Hoorn, Sabine KnappAbstract:Maritime administration and coastal states have become more aware of the need to enhance Risk mitigation strategies primarily due to increased worldwide shipping activities, changing safety qualities of the world fleet and limited resources to deploy mitigation strategies. This paper introduces an innovative multi-layered framework to assess, predict and mitigate potential harm. The proposed approach addresses known restrictions of Risk assessments in shipping. These restrictions are the lack of scalability to apply Risk assessments over large areas using an automated routine, the absence of recognizing that the world fleet is heterogeneous, the lack of integrating location specific environmental conditions such as wind, currents or waves and most importantly, the lack of recognizing the uncertainties associated with each factor especially for predictions. The proposed framework is based on the idea of integrating various layers representing the most important factors that can influence Risk in order to estimate and predict Risk Exposure for a given area. As proof of concept of the underlying ideas, the outcome of a pilot project with the Australian Maritime Safety Authority is presented which demonstrates the integration of the first two layers and is based on a unique and comprehensive combination of data. The results of selected endpoints of Risk Exposure compare well with observations. The article also discusses the integration of the remaining layers including the recognition and addition of uncertainties in the future.
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a multi layered Risk Exposure assessment approach for the shipping industry
Econometric Institute Research Papers, 2014Co-Authors: Stephen Vander Hoorn, Sabine KnappAbstract:__Abstract__ Shipping activity has increased worldwide and maritime administrations are trying to enhance Risk mitigation strategies by using proactive approaches. We present and discuss a conceptual framework to minimize potential harm based on a multi-layered approach which can be implemented in either real time for operational purposes or in prediction mode for medium or longer term strategic planning purposes. We introduce the concept of total Risk Exposure which integrates Risk at the individual ship level with vessel traffic densities and location specific parameters such as weather and oceanographic conditions, geographical features or environmental sensitivities. A comprehensive and robust method to estimate and predict Risk Exposure can be beneficial to maritime administrations to enhance mitigation strategies and understand uncertainties. We further provide a proof of concept based on 53 million observations of vessel positions and individual Risk profiles of 8,900 individual ships. We present examples on how endpoints can be visualized for two integrated Risk layers – ship specific Risk and vessel traffic densities. We further identify and discuss uncertainties and present our ideas on how other Risk layers could be integrated in the future.
Pilyoung Kim - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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childhood poverty and young adults allostatic load the mediating role of childhood cumulative Risk Exposure
Psychological Science, 2012Co-Authors: Gary W. Evans, Pilyoung KimAbstract:Childhood poverty is linked to a host of physical and psychological disorders during childhood and later in life. In the study reported here, we showed that the proportion of childhood spent in poverty from birth to age 9 was linked to elevated allostatic load, a marker of chronic physiological stress, in 17-year-olds. Furthermore, this prospective longitudinal relationship was mediated by cumulative Risk Exposure at age 13. The greater the duration of early life spent in poverty, the greater the Exposure to cumulative Risk. This, in turn, leads to elevated allostatic load. Multiple psychological, biological, and neurological pathways likely account for the social patterning of psychological and physical disease.
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Childhood Poverty and Health Cumulative Risk Exposure and Stress Dysregulation
Psychological science, 2007Co-Authors: Gary W. Evans, Pilyoung KimAbstract:A massive literature documents the inverse association between poverty or low socioeconomic status and health, but little is known about the mechanisms underlying this robust relation. We examined longitudinal relations between duration of poverty Exposure since birth, cumulative Risk Exposure, and physiological stress in two hundred seven 13-year-olds. Chronic stress was assessed by basal blood pressure and overnight cortisol levels; stress regulation was assessed by cardiovascular reactivity to a standard acute stressor and recovery after Exposure to this stressor. Cumulative Risk Exposure was measured by multiple physical (e.g., substandard housing) and social (e.g., family turmoil) Risk factors. The greater the number of years spent living in poverty, the more elevated was overnight cortisol and the more dysregulated was the cardiovascular response (i.e., muted reactivity). Cardiovascular recovery was not affected by duration of poverty Exposure. Unlike the duration of poverty Exposure, concurrent pov...
Stephen Vander Hoorn - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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Predicting Traffic and Risk Exposure in the Maritime Industry
Safety, 2019Co-Authors: Stephen Vander Hoorn, Sabine KnappAbstract:Maritime regulators, port authorities, and industry require the ability to predict Risk Exposure of shipping activities at a micro and macro level to optimize asset allocation and to mitigate and prevent incidents. This article introduces the concept of a strategic planning tool by making use of the multi-layered Risk estimation framework (MLREF), which accounts for ship specific Risk, vessel traffic densities, and meets ocean conditions at the macro level. This article’s main contribution is to provide a traffic and Risk Exposure prediction routine that allows the traffic forecast to be distributed across the shipping route network to allow for predicting scenarios at the macro level (e.g., covering larger geographic areas) and micro level (e.g., passage way, particular route of interest). In addition, the micro level is introduced by providing a theoretical idea to integrate location specific spatial rate ratios along with the effect of the Risk control option to perform sensitivity analysis of Risk Exposure prediction scenarios. Aspects of the Risk Exposure estimation routine were tested via a pilot study for the Australian region using a comprehensive and unique combination of datasets. Sources of uncertainties for Risk assessments are described in general and discussed along with the potential for future developments and improvements.
-
a multi layered Risk Exposure assessment approach for the shipping industry
Transportation Research Part A-policy and Practice, 2015Co-Authors: Stephen Vander Hoorn, Sabine KnappAbstract:Maritime administration and coastal states have become more aware of the need to enhance Risk mitigation strategies primarily due to increased worldwide shipping activities, changing safety qualities of the world fleet and limited resources to deploy mitigation strategies. This paper introduces an innovative multi-layered framework to assess, predict and mitigate potential harm. The proposed approach addresses known restrictions of Risk assessments in shipping. These restrictions are the lack of scalability to apply Risk assessments over large areas using an automated routine, the absence of recognizing that the world fleet is heterogeneous, the lack of integrating location specific environmental conditions such as wind, currents or waves and most importantly, the lack of recognizing the uncertainties associated with each factor especially for predictions. The proposed framework is based on the idea of integrating various layers representing the most important factors that can influence Risk in order to estimate and predict Risk Exposure for a given area. As proof of concept of the underlying ideas, the outcome of a pilot project with the Australian Maritime Safety Authority is presented which demonstrates the integration of the first two layers and is based on a unique and comprehensive combination of data. The results of selected endpoints of Risk Exposure compare well with observations. The article also discusses the integration of the remaining layers including the recognition and addition of uncertainties in the future.
-
a multi layered Risk Exposure assessment approach for the shipping industry
Econometric Institute Research Papers, 2014Co-Authors: Stephen Vander Hoorn, Sabine KnappAbstract:__Abstract__ Shipping activity has increased worldwide and maritime administrations are trying to enhance Risk mitigation strategies by using proactive approaches. We present and discuss a conceptual framework to minimize potential harm based on a multi-layered approach which can be implemented in either real time for operational purposes or in prediction mode for medium or longer term strategic planning purposes. We introduce the concept of total Risk Exposure which integrates Risk at the individual ship level with vessel traffic densities and location specific parameters such as weather and oceanographic conditions, geographical features or environmental sensitivities. A comprehensive and robust method to estimate and predict Risk Exposure can be beneficial to maritime administrations to enhance mitigation strategies and understand uncertainties. We further provide a proof of concept based on 53 million observations of vessel positions and individual Risk profiles of 8,900 individual ships. We present examples on how endpoints can be visualized for two integrated Risk layers – ship specific Risk and vessel traffic densities. We further identify and discuss uncertainties and present our ideas on how other Risk layers could be integrated in the future.
Gary W. Evans - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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Childhood Cumulative Risk Exposure and Adult Amygdala Volume and Function
Journal of neuroscience research, 2015Co-Authors: Gary W. Evans, James E. Swain, Anthony P. King, Xin Wang, Arash Javanbakht, Mike Angstadt, K. Luan Phan, Hong Xie, Israel LiberzonAbstract:Considerable work indicates that early cumulative Risk Exposure is aversive to human development, but very little research has examined the neurological underpinnings of these robust findings. This study investigates amygdala volume and reactivity to facial stimuli among adults (mean 23.7 years of age, n = 54) as a function of cumulative Risk Exposure during childhood (9 and 13 years of age). In addition, we test to determine whether expected cumulative Risk elevations in amygdala volume would mediate functional reactivity of the amygdala during socioemotional processing. Risks included substandard housing quality, noise, crowding, family turmoil, child separation from family, and violence. Total and left hemisphere adult amygdala volumes were positively related to cumulative Risk Exposure during childhood. The links between childhood cumulative Risk Exposure and elevated amygdala responses to emotionally neutral facial stimuli in adulthood were mediated by the corresponding amygdala volumes. Cumulative Risk Exposure in later adolescence (17 years of age), however, was unrelated to subsequent adult amygdala volume or function. Physical and socioemotional Risk Exposures early in life appear to alter amygdala development, rendering adults more reactive to ambiguous stimuli such as neutral faces. These stress-related differences in childhood amygdala development might contribute to the well-documented psychological distress as a function of early Risk Exposure.
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childhood poverty and young adults allostatic load the mediating role of childhood cumulative Risk Exposure
Psychological Science, 2012Co-Authors: Gary W. Evans, Pilyoung KimAbstract:Childhood poverty is linked to a host of physical and psychological disorders during childhood and later in life. In the study reported here, we showed that the proportion of childhood spent in poverty from birth to age 9 was linked to elevated allostatic load, a marker of chronic physiological stress, in 17-year-olds. Furthermore, this prospective longitudinal relationship was mediated by cumulative Risk Exposure at age 13. The greater the duration of early life spent in poverty, the greater the Exposure to cumulative Risk. This, in turn, leads to elevated allostatic load. Multiple psychological, biological, and neurological pathways likely account for the social patterning of psychological and physical disease.
-
Childhood Poverty and Health Cumulative Risk Exposure and Stress Dysregulation
Psychological science, 2007Co-Authors: Gary W. Evans, Pilyoung KimAbstract:A massive literature documents the inverse association between poverty or low socioeconomic status and health, but little is known about the mechanisms underlying this robust relation. We examined longitudinal relations between duration of poverty Exposure since birth, cumulative Risk Exposure, and physiological stress in two hundred seven 13-year-olds. Chronic stress was assessed by basal blood pressure and overnight cortisol levels; stress regulation was assessed by cardiovascular reactivity to a standard acute stressor and recovery after Exposure to this stressor. Cumulative Risk Exposure was measured by multiple physical (e.g., substandard housing) and social (e.g., family turmoil) Risk factors. The greater the number of years spent living in poverty, the more elevated was overnight cortisol and the more dysregulated was the cardiovascular response (i.e., muted reactivity). Cardiovascular recovery was not affected by duration of poverty Exposure. Unlike the duration of poverty Exposure, concurrent pov...
Christiaan Heij - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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Evaluation of total Risk Exposure and insurance premiums in the maritime industry
Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, 2017Co-Authors: Sabine Knapp, Christiaan HeijAbstract:Abstract The empirical evaluation of maritime Risk Exposure is based on the monetary value at Risk (MVR) that incorporates individual safety quality data of about 130,000 vessels, insurable values related to various potential damages, and proxies for fractions of values lost at incidents. MVR provides a tool to enhance strategic planning of maritime administrations and insurance providers, which is illustrated by a high level comparison of annual Risk Exposure with insurance premiums for 2010–2014. The analysis reveals a global annual insurable value of 30.6 trillion USD with associated annual MVR of 38.8 billion USD for very serious and serious incidents. Although oil tankers show the highest Risk Exposure (1.75 million USD per tanker per year), safety qualities are found to be best for this ship type (1.4% annual incident Risk) and worst for container vessels (2.8%). Annual growth rates in total Risk Exposure are mostly positive with highest value for dry bulk carriers (27.8%), whereas Risk Exposure tends to decline for pollution of oil tankers (−2.0%) and passenger vessels (−11.3%), and for loss of life of oil tankers (−1.9%) and dry bulk carriers (−1.4%). Comparison across administrative dimensions reveals that most Risk Exposure lies with old open registries and with beneficial owners and the Document of Compliance companies located in high income countries. Comparison with global insurance premiums suggests reasonably adequate coverage of maritime Risks (excluding cargo) with under-insurance of Risk by around 5% (about 1 billion USD per year), with some uncertainties remaining for actual loss fractions of the involved damages.
-
Evaluation of total Risk Exposure and insurance premiums in the maritime industry
2016Co-Authors: Sabine Knapp, Christiaan HeijAbstract:This study provides an empirical evaluation of maritime Risk Exposure expressed as the monetary value at Risk (MVR), which incorporates life of crew and passengers, vessel value of hull and machinery, carried cargo value, third party liabilities, and potential external damages like pollution. MVR is based on individual safety quality data of about 130,000 vessels, on insurable values related to various potential damages, and on proxies for fractions of values lost at incidents. MVR provides a tool to enhance strategic planning of maritime administrations and insurance providers, which is illustrated by a high level comparison of annual Risk Exposure with insurance premiums for 2010 to 2014. The analysis reveals a global annual insurable value of 30.6 trillion USD with associated annual MVR of 38.8 billion USD for very serious and serious incidents. Although oil tankers show the highest Risk Exposure (1.75 million USD per tanker per year), safety qualities are found to be best for this ship type (1.4% annual incident Risk) and worst for container vessels (2.8%). Annual growth rates in total Risk Exposure are mostly positive with highest value for dry bulk carriers (27.8%), whereas Risk Exposure tends to decline for pollution of oil tankers (-2.0%) and passenger vessels (-11.3%), and for loss of life of oil tankers (-1.9%) and dry bulk carriers (-1.4%) but not of passenger vessels (6.9%). A comparison across administrative dimensions reveals that most Risk Exposure lies with old open registries and with beneficial owners and DoC companies located in high income countries. Comparison with global insurance premiums suggests reasonably adequate coverage of maritime Risks (excluding cargo). Our analysis indicates under-insurance of Risk by around 5%, corresponding to about 1 billion USD per year, with some uncertainties remaining for the actual loss fractions of the various involved damages.
