Temporal Discounting

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Jan Peters - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.

  • Reliability assessment of Temporal Discounting measures in virtual reality environments.
    Scientific reports, 2021
    Co-Authors: Luca R Bruder, Lisa Scharer, Jan Peters
    Abstract:

    In recent years the emergence of high-performance virtual reality (VR) technology has opened up new possibilities for the examination of context effects in psychological studies. The opportunity to create ecologically valid stimulation in a highly controlled lab environment is especially relevant for studies of psychiatric disorders, where it can be problematic to confront participants with certain stimuli in real life. However, before VR can be confidently applied widely it is important to establish that commonly used behavioral tasks generate reliable data within a VR surrounding. One field of research that could benefit greatly from VR-applications are studies assessing the reactivity to addiction related cues (cue-reactivity) in participants suffering from gambling disorder. Here we tested the reliability of a commonly used Temporal Discounting task in a novel VR set-up designed for the concurrent assessment of behavioral and psychophysiological cue-reactivity in gambling disorder. On 2 days, thirty-four healthy non-gambling participants explored two rich and navigable VR-environments (neutral: café vs. gambling-related: casino and sports-betting facility), while their electrodermal activity was measured using remote sensors. In addition, participants completed the Temporal Discounting task implemented in each VR environment. On a third day, participants performed the task in a standard lab testing context. We then used comprehensive computational modeling using both standard softmax and drift diffusion model (DDM) choice rules to assess the reliability of Discounting model parameters assessed in VR. Test-retest reliability estimates were good to excellent for the discount rate log(k), whereas they were poor to moderate for additional DDM parameters. Differences in model parameters between standard lab testing and VR, reflecting reactivity to the different environments, were mostly numerically small and of inconclusive directionality. Finally, while exposure to VR generally increased tonic skin conductance, this effect was not modulated by the neutral versus gambling-related VR-environment. Taken together this proof-of-concept study in non-gambling participants demonstrates that Temporal Discounting measures obtained in VR are reliable, suggesting that VR is a promising tool for applications in computational psychiatry, including studies on cue-reactivity in addiction.

  • effects of episodic future thinking on Temporal Discounting a re analysis of six data sets using hierarchical bayesian parameter estimation and compilation of effect sizes
    bioRxiv, 2020
    Co-Authors: Jan Peters, Christian Buchel, Stefanie Brassen, Uli Bromberg, Laura K Sasse, Antonius Wiehler
    Abstract:

    Temporal Discounting refers to the tendency of humans and many animals to devalue rewards as a function of time. Steep Discounting of value over time is associated with a range of psychiatric disorders, including substance use disorders and behavioral addictions, and therefore of potentially high clinical relevance. One cognitive factor that has repeatedly been shown to reduce Temporal Discounting in humans is episodic future thinking, the process of vividly imagining future outcomes, which has been linked to hippocampal mechanisms in a number of studies. However, the analytical approaches used to quantify the behavioral effects have varied widely between studies, which complicates a direct comparison of the obtained effect sizes. Here we re-analyzed Temporal Discounting data from previously published functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) and behavioral studies (six data sets from five papers, n=204 participants in total) using an identical model structure and hierarchical Bayesian parameter estimation procedure. Analyses generally confirm robust and consistent effects of future thinking on Temporal Discounting, but not decision noise. We provide standardized and unstandardized effect size estimates for each data set and discuss clinical implications of these findings as well as issues of of hierarchical Bayesian parameter estimation.

  • Temporal Discounting in adolescents and adults with Tourette syndrome
    2020
    Co-Authors: Canan Beate Schueller, Ben Wagner, Thomas Schueller, Juan Carlos Baldermann, Daniel Huys, Julia Kerner, Eva Niessen, Alexander Muenchau, Valerie Brandt, Jan Peters
    Abstract:

    Background: Tourette syndrome is a neurodevelopmental disorder with the clinical hallmarks of motor and phonic tics which are associated with hyperactivity in dopaminergic networks. Dopaminergic hyperactivity in the basal ganglia has previously been linked to increased sensitivity to positive reinforcement and increases in choice impulsivity. Objective: We address whether this extends to changes in Temporal Discounting, where impulsivity is operationalized as an increased preference to choose smaller-but-sooner over larger-but-later rewards. Results are discussed with respect to neural models of Temporal Discounting, dopaminergic alterations in Tourette syndrome and the developmental trajectory of Temporal Discounting. Methods: In the first study we included nineteen adolescent patients with Tourette syndrome and nineteen age- and education matched controls. In the second study, we compared twenty-five adult patients with Tourette syndrome and twenty-five age- and education-matched controls. Results: In the light of the dopaminergic hyperactivity model, we predicted differences in Temporal Discounting in patients with Tourette syndrome. However, computational modeling of choice behavior using hierarchical Bayesian parameter estimation revealed reduced impulsive choice in adolescent patients, and no group differences in adults. Conclusion: We speculate that adolescents might show reduced Discounting due to improved inhibitory functions that also affect choice impulsivity and/or the developmental trajectory of executive control functions. The absence of an effect in adults might be due to differences in the clinical population (e.g. patients who acquired successful tic inhibition during adolescence might have gone into remission). Future studies would benefit from adopting longitudinal approaches to further elucidate the developmental trajectory of these effects.

  • Episodic Tags Enhance Striatal Valuation Signals during Temporal Discounting in Pathological Gamblers
    eNeuro, 2017
    Co-Authors: Antonius Wiehler, Frederike H. Petzschner, Klaas E. Stephan, Jan Peters
    Abstract:

    Similar to many addiction disorders, pathological gambling is associated with an increased preference for immediate rewards (steep Temporal Discounting). In healthy participants, episodic future thinking has been shown to reduce impulsivity during interTemporal choice. Here, we examine for the first time a modulation of Temporal Discounting via episodic future thinking in a group of pathological gamblers. We investigated a sample of 24 pathological gamblers and 24 matched healthy controls with functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI). Participants made interTemporal choices in two experimental conditions. In the control condition, delayed monetary rewards were offered with the respective amount and delay. In the episodic condition, rewards were additionally associated with participant-specific personal future events. We replicated previous findings of increased Temporal Discounting in pathological gambling. On a trend level, episodic future thinking attenuated Discounting across all participants. We found that pathological gamblers could successfully recruit a prospection related network during decision-making in the presence of episodic information. The episodic condition modulated the functional connection between ventromedial prefrontal cortex (vmPFC) and ventral striatum, a mechanism that might support the increase in striatal value coding observed in the episodic condition in gamblers. However, in controls, but not in gamblers, valuation signal changes in the hippocampus were associated with less impulsive behavior. We provide first evidence that by episodic cues during interTemporal decision-making striatal valuation signals can be enhanced in pathological gamblers. Further research is needed to explore interventions that reliably reduce impulsive choice behavior in pathological gambling.

  • formal comparison of dual parameter Temporal Discounting models in controls and pathological gamblers
    PLOS ONE, 2012
    Co-Authors: Jan Peters, Stephan F Miedl, Christian Buchel
    Abstract:

    Temporal or delay Discounting refers to the phenomenon that the value of a reward is discounted as a function of time to delivery. A range of models have been proposed that approximate the shape of the discount curve describing the relationship between subjective value and time. Recent evidence suggests that more than one free parameter may be required to accurately model human Temporal Discounting data. Nonetheless, many Temporal Discounting studies in psychiatry, psychology and neuroeconomics still apply single-parameter models, despite their oftentimes poor fit to single-subject data. Previous comparisons of Temporal Discounting models have either not taken model complexity into account, or have overlooked particular models. Here we apply model comparison techniques in a large sample of Temporal Discounting datasets using several Discounting models employed in the past. Among the models examined, an exponential-power model from behavioural economics (CS model, Ebert & Prelec 2007) provided the best fit to human laboratory Discounting data. Inter-parameter correlations for the winning model were moderate, whereas they were substantial for other dual-parameter models examined. Analyses of previous group and context effects on Temporal Discounting with the winning model provided additional theoretical insights. The CS model may be a useful tool in future psychiatry, psychology and neuroscience work on inter-Temporal choice.

Fabian Fagerholm - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.

  • TechDebt@ICSE - Temporal Discounting in technical debt: how do software practitioners discount the future?
    2019 IEEE ACM International Conference on Technical Debt (TechDebt), 2019
    Co-Authors: Christoph Becker, Fabian Fagerholm, Rahul Mohanani, Alexander Chatzigeorgiou
    Abstract:

    Technical Debt management decisions always imply a trade-off among outcomes at different points in time. In such interTemporal choices, distant outcomes are often valued lower than close ones, a phenomenon known as Temporal Discounting. Technical Debt research largely develops prescriptive approaches for how software engineers should make such decisions. Few have studied how they actually make them. This leaves open central questions about how software practitioners make decisions. This paper investigates how software practitioners discount uncertain future outcomes and whether they exhibit Temporal Discounting. We adopt experimental methods from interTemporal choice, an active area of research. We administered an online questionnaire to 33 developers from two companies in which we presented choices between developing a feature and making a longer-term investment in architecture. The results show wide-spread Temporal Discounting with notable differences in individual behavior. The results are consistent with similar studies in consumer behavior and raise a number of questions about the causal factors that influence Temporal Discounting in software engineering. As the first empirical study on interTemporal choice in SE, the paper establishes an empirical basis for understanding how software developers approach interTemporal choice and provides a blueprint for future studies.

  • Temporal Discounting in Technical Debt: How do Software Practitioners Discount the Future?
    arXiv: Software Engineering, 2019
    Co-Authors: Christoph Becker, Fabian Fagerholm, Rahul Mohanani, Alexander Chatzigeorgiou
    Abstract:

    Technical Debt management decisions always imply a trade-off among outcomes at different points in time. In such interTemporal choices, distant outcomes are often valued lower than close ones, a phenomenon known as Temporal Discounting. Technical Debt research largely develops prescriptive approaches for how software engineers should make such decisions. Few have studied how they actually make them. This leaves open central questions about how software practitioners make decisions. This paper investigates how software practitioners discount uncertain future outcomes and whether they exhibit Temporal Discounting. We adopt experimental methods from interTemporal choice, an active area of research. We administered an online questionnaire to 33 developers from two companies in which we presented choices between developing a feature and making a longer-term investment in architecture. The results show wide-spread Temporal Discounting with notable differences in individual behavior. The results are consistent with similar studies in consumer behavior and raise a number of questions about the causal factors that influence Temporal Discounting in software engineering. As the first empirical study on interTemporal choice in SE, the paper establishes an empirical basis for understanding how software developers approach interTemporal choice and provides a blueprint for future studies.

  • Temporal Discounting in Software Engineering: A Replication Study
    2019 ACM IEEE International Symposium on Empirical Software Engineering and Measurement (ESEM), 2019
    Co-Authors: Fabian Fagerholm, Christoph Becker, Alexander Chatzigeorgiou, Stefanie Betz, Leticia Duboc, Birgit Penzenstadler, Rahul Mohanani, Colin C. Venters
    Abstract:

    Background: Many decisions made in Software Engineering practices are interTemporal choices: trade-offs in time between closer options with potential short-term benefit and future options with potential long-term benefit. However, how software professionals make interTemporal decisions is not well understood. Aim: This paper investigates how shifting time frames influence preferences in software projects in relation to purposefully selected background factors. Method: We investigate Temporal Discounting by replicating a questionnaire-based observational study. The replication uses a changed-population and -experimenter design to increase the internal and external validity of the original results. Results: The results of this study confirm the occurrence of Temporal Discounting in samples of both professional and student participants from different countries and demonstrate strong variance in Discounting between study participants. We found that professional experience influenced Discounting. Participants with broader professional experience exhibited less Discounting than those with narrower experience. Conclusions: The results provide strong empirical support for the relevance and importance of Temporal Discounting in SE and the urgency of targeted interdisciplinary research to explore the underlying mechanisms and their theoretical and practical implications. The results suggest that technical debt management could be improved by increasing the breadth of experience available for critical decisions with long-term impact. In addition, the present study provides a methodological basis for replicating Temporal Discounting studies in software engineering.

  • ESEM - Temporal Discounting in Software Engineering: A Replication Study
    2019 ACM IEEE International Symposium on Empirical Software Engineering and Measurement (ESEM), 2019
    Co-Authors: Fabian Fagerholm, Christoph Becker, Alexander Chatzigeorgiou, Stefanie Betz, Leticia Duboc, Birgit Penzenstadler, Rahul Mohanani, Colin C. Venters
    Abstract:

    Background: Many decisions made in Software Engineering practices are interTemporal choices: trade-offs in time between closer options with potential short-term benefit and future options with potential long-term benefit. However, how software professionals make interTemporal decisions is not well understood. Aim: This paper investigates how shifting time frames influence preferences in software projects in relation to purposefully selected background factors. Method: We investigate Temporal Discounting by replicating a questionnaire-based observational study. The replication uses a changed-population and -experimenter design to increase the internal and external validity of the original results. Results: The results of this study confirm the occurrence of Temporal Discounting in samples of both professional and student participants from different countries and demonstrate strong variance in Discounting between study participants. We found that professional experience influenced Discounting. Participants with broader professional experience exhibited less Discounting than those with narrower experience. Conclusions: The results provide strong empirical support for the relevance and importance of Temporal Discounting in SE and the urgency of targeted interdisciplinary research to explore the underlying mechanisms and their theoretical and practical implications. The results suggest that technical debt management could be improved by increasing the breadth of experience available for critical decisions with long-term impact. In addition, the present study provides a methodological basis for replicating Temporal Discounting studies in software engineering.

Warren K Bickel - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.

  • the behavioral and neuro economic process of Temporal Discounting a candidate behavioral marker of addiction
    Neuropharmacology, 2014
    Co-Authors: Warren K Bickel, Mikhail N Koffarnus, Lara Moody, George A Wilson
    Abstract:

    Addiction science would benefit from the identification of a behavioral marker. A behavioral marker could reflect the projected clinical course of the disorder, function as a surrogate measure of clinical outcome, and/or may be related to biological components that underlie the disorder. In this paper we review relevant literature, made possible with the early and sustained support by NIDA, to determine whether Temporal Discounting, a neurobehavioral process derived from behavioral economics and further explored through neuroeconomics, may function as a behavioral marker. Our review suggests that Temporal Discounting 1) identifies individuals who are drug-dependent, 2) identifies those at risk of developing drug dependence, 3) acts as a gauge of addiction severity, 4) correlates with all stages of addiction development, 5) changes with effective treatment, and 6) may be related to the biological and genetic processes that underlie addiction. Thus, initial evidence supports Temporal Discounting as a candidate behavioral marker. Additional studies will be required in several areas for a more conclusive determination. Confirmation that Temporal Discounting functions as a behavioral marker for addiction could lead to 1) a screen for new treatments, 2) personalization of prevention and treatment interventions, and 3) the extension of Temporal Discounting as a behavioral marker for other etiologically similar disorders. This article is part of a Special Issue entitled 'NIDA 40th Anniversary Issue'.

  • Altruism in time: social Temporal Discounting differentiates smokers from problem drinkers
    Psychopharmacology, 2012
    Co-Authors: Warren K Bickel, David P. Jarmolowicz, E. T. Mueller, Christopher T. Franck, C. Carrin, Kirstin M. Gatchalian
    Abstract:

    Rationale Recent studies on reinforcer valuation in social situations have informed research on mental illness. Social Temporal Discounting may be a way to examine effects of social context on the devaluation of delayed reinforcers. In prior research with non-drug-using groups, we demonstrated that individuals discount delayed rewards less rapidly (i.e., value the future more) for a group of which they are a member than they do for themselves alone.

  • The short of it: Abbreviating the Temporal Discounting procedure
    Experimental and clinical psychopharmacology, 2010
    Co-Authors: Jeffrey A. Pitcock, Reid D. Landes, Warren K Bickel
    Abstract:

    A typical Temporal Discounting procedure determines the present, subjective value (indifference point) of a delayed outcome at 5 – 8 different delays to that outcome. These indifference points are used to determine a single index of Discounting called a Discounting rate. One concern that remains in the collection of this data is the high number of trials or choices, resulting in participant fatigue or other factors that may affect the validity of the data. In this report, we propose an abbreviated alternative to the more comprehensive and time-consuming Discounting procedure. Specifically, we propose that fewer indifference points can be used to determine statistically equivalent discount rates with no loss in data sensitivity. We reanalyzed Temporal Discounting data obtained with 7 indifference points, and estimated discount rates from all combinations of 2, 3, and 4 of the 7 indifference points. Results indicate that valid and sensitive Discounting indices can be obtained with fewer indifference points, and the most appropriate sets of indifference points are highlighted. The proposed abbreviated procedure is likely to be particularly useful when time constraints or participant fatigue is a concern, as well as in repeated-measures contexts.

  • Temporal Discounting as a measure of executive function insights from the competing neuro behavioral decision system hypothesis of addiction
    Advances in health economics and health services research, 2008
    Co-Authors: Warren K Bickel, Richard Yi
    Abstract:

    Conceptual paper purpose – The purpose of this chapter is to examine a new conceptual model of addiction and interpret the results from delay Discounting studies in light of this new perspective. Methodology/approach – To accomplish this we (1) introduce this new conceptual model, (2) briefly review executive function, including evidence for executive dysfunction among the addicted, (3) describe the unique relationship of Temporal Discounting to the new model and executive dysfunction, and (4) reinterpret the Discounting literature in light of this new conceptual model. Findings – Addicted individuals discount the future more than controls. This is consistent with greater relative activation of the impulsive system and decreased relative activation of the executive system. It also supports the new conceptual model of addiction. Research implications – The new model provides a model for understanding the observations from the broader area of research in Temporal Discounting. Originality/value of chapter – Given the view of executive function as important for the cross-Temporal organization of behavior, we think that Temporal Discounting, the valuing of future commodities, qualifies this process to be included as an executive function.

  • behavioral and neuroeconomics of drug addiction competing neural systems and Temporal Discounting processes
    Drug and Alcohol Dependence, 2007
    Co-Authors: Warren K Bickel, Michelle L Miller, Diana M Lindquist, Benjamin P. Kowal, Richard Yi, Jeffery A. Pitcock
    Abstract:

    Abstract We review behavioral- and neuroeconomic research that identifies Temporal Discounting as an important component in the development and maintenance of drug addiction. First, we review behavioral economic research that explains and documents the contribution of Temporal Discounting to addiction. This is followed with recent insights from neuroeconomics that may provide an explanation of why drug-dependent individuals discount the future. Specifically, neuroeconomics has identified two competing neural systems that are related to Temporal Discounting using brain-imaging techniques that examine the relative activation of different brain regions for Temporal Discounting. According to the competing neural systems account, choices for delayed outcomes are related to the prefrontal cortex (i.e., the “executive system”) and choices for immediate outcomes are related to the limbic brain regions (i.e., the “impulsive system”). Temporal Discounting provides a useful framework for future imaging research, and suggests a novel approach to designing effective drug dependence prevention and treatment programs.

Alexander Chatzigeorgiou - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.

  • TechDebt@ICSE - Temporal Discounting in technical debt: how do software practitioners discount the future?
    2019 IEEE ACM International Conference on Technical Debt (TechDebt), 2019
    Co-Authors: Christoph Becker, Fabian Fagerholm, Rahul Mohanani, Alexander Chatzigeorgiou
    Abstract:

    Technical Debt management decisions always imply a trade-off among outcomes at different points in time. In such interTemporal choices, distant outcomes are often valued lower than close ones, a phenomenon known as Temporal Discounting. Technical Debt research largely develops prescriptive approaches for how software engineers should make such decisions. Few have studied how they actually make them. This leaves open central questions about how software practitioners make decisions. This paper investigates how software practitioners discount uncertain future outcomes and whether they exhibit Temporal Discounting. We adopt experimental methods from interTemporal choice, an active area of research. We administered an online questionnaire to 33 developers from two companies in which we presented choices between developing a feature and making a longer-term investment in architecture. The results show wide-spread Temporal Discounting with notable differences in individual behavior. The results are consistent with similar studies in consumer behavior and raise a number of questions about the causal factors that influence Temporal Discounting in software engineering. As the first empirical study on interTemporal choice in SE, the paper establishes an empirical basis for understanding how software developers approach interTemporal choice and provides a blueprint for future studies.

  • Temporal Discounting in Technical Debt: How do Software Practitioners Discount the Future?
    arXiv: Software Engineering, 2019
    Co-Authors: Christoph Becker, Fabian Fagerholm, Rahul Mohanani, Alexander Chatzigeorgiou
    Abstract:

    Technical Debt management decisions always imply a trade-off among outcomes at different points in time. In such interTemporal choices, distant outcomes are often valued lower than close ones, a phenomenon known as Temporal Discounting. Technical Debt research largely develops prescriptive approaches for how software engineers should make such decisions. Few have studied how they actually make them. This leaves open central questions about how software practitioners make decisions. This paper investigates how software practitioners discount uncertain future outcomes and whether they exhibit Temporal Discounting. We adopt experimental methods from interTemporal choice, an active area of research. We administered an online questionnaire to 33 developers from two companies in which we presented choices between developing a feature and making a longer-term investment in architecture. The results show wide-spread Temporal Discounting with notable differences in individual behavior. The results are consistent with similar studies in consumer behavior and raise a number of questions about the causal factors that influence Temporal Discounting in software engineering. As the first empirical study on interTemporal choice in SE, the paper establishes an empirical basis for understanding how software developers approach interTemporal choice and provides a blueprint for future studies.

  • Temporal Discounting in Software Engineering: A Replication Study
    2019 ACM IEEE International Symposium on Empirical Software Engineering and Measurement (ESEM), 2019
    Co-Authors: Fabian Fagerholm, Christoph Becker, Alexander Chatzigeorgiou, Stefanie Betz, Leticia Duboc, Birgit Penzenstadler, Rahul Mohanani, Colin C. Venters
    Abstract:

    Background: Many decisions made in Software Engineering practices are interTemporal choices: trade-offs in time between closer options with potential short-term benefit and future options with potential long-term benefit. However, how software professionals make interTemporal decisions is not well understood. Aim: This paper investigates how shifting time frames influence preferences in software projects in relation to purposefully selected background factors. Method: We investigate Temporal Discounting by replicating a questionnaire-based observational study. The replication uses a changed-population and -experimenter design to increase the internal and external validity of the original results. Results: The results of this study confirm the occurrence of Temporal Discounting in samples of both professional and student participants from different countries and demonstrate strong variance in Discounting between study participants. We found that professional experience influenced Discounting. Participants with broader professional experience exhibited less Discounting than those with narrower experience. Conclusions: The results provide strong empirical support for the relevance and importance of Temporal Discounting in SE and the urgency of targeted interdisciplinary research to explore the underlying mechanisms and their theoretical and practical implications. The results suggest that technical debt management could be improved by increasing the breadth of experience available for critical decisions with long-term impact. In addition, the present study provides a methodological basis for replicating Temporal Discounting studies in software engineering.

  • ESEM - Temporal Discounting in Software Engineering: A Replication Study
    2019 ACM IEEE International Symposium on Empirical Software Engineering and Measurement (ESEM), 2019
    Co-Authors: Fabian Fagerholm, Christoph Becker, Alexander Chatzigeorgiou, Stefanie Betz, Leticia Duboc, Birgit Penzenstadler, Rahul Mohanani, Colin C. Venters
    Abstract:

    Background: Many decisions made in Software Engineering practices are interTemporal choices: trade-offs in time between closer options with potential short-term benefit and future options with potential long-term benefit. However, how software professionals make interTemporal decisions is not well understood. Aim: This paper investigates how shifting time frames influence preferences in software projects in relation to purposefully selected background factors. Method: We investigate Temporal Discounting by replicating a questionnaire-based observational study. The replication uses a changed-population and -experimenter design to increase the internal and external validity of the original results. Results: The results of this study confirm the occurrence of Temporal Discounting in samples of both professional and student participants from different countries and demonstrate strong variance in Discounting between study participants. We found that professional experience influenced Discounting. Participants with broader professional experience exhibited less Discounting than those with narrower experience. Conclusions: The results provide strong empirical support for the relevance and importance of Temporal Discounting in SE and the urgency of targeted interdisciplinary research to explore the underlying mechanisms and their theoretical and practical implications. The results suggest that technical debt management could be improved by increasing the breadth of experience available for critical decisions with long-term impact. In addition, the present study provides a methodological basis for replicating Temporal Discounting studies in software engineering.

Christoph Becker - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.

  • TechDebt@ICSE - Temporal Discounting in technical debt: how do software practitioners discount the future?
    2019 IEEE ACM International Conference on Technical Debt (TechDebt), 2019
    Co-Authors: Christoph Becker, Fabian Fagerholm, Rahul Mohanani, Alexander Chatzigeorgiou
    Abstract:

    Technical Debt management decisions always imply a trade-off among outcomes at different points in time. In such interTemporal choices, distant outcomes are often valued lower than close ones, a phenomenon known as Temporal Discounting. Technical Debt research largely develops prescriptive approaches for how software engineers should make such decisions. Few have studied how they actually make them. This leaves open central questions about how software practitioners make decisions. This paper investigates how software practitioners discount uncertain future outcomes and whether they exhibit Temporal Discounting. We adopt experimental methods from interTemporal choice, an active area of research. We administered an online questionnaire to 33 developers from two companies in which we presented choices between developing a feature and making a longer-term investment in architecture. The results show wide-spread Temporal Discounting with notable differences in individual behavior. The results are consistent with similar studies in consumer behavior and raise a number of questions about the causal factors that influence Temporal Discounting in software engineering. As the first empirical study on interTemporal choice in SE, the paper establishes an empirical basis for understanding how software developers approach interTemporal choice and provides a blueprint for future studies.

  • Temporal Discounting in Technical Debt: How do Software Practitioners Discount the Future?
    arXiv: Software Engineering, 2019
    Co-Authors: Christoph Becker, Fabian Fagerholm, Rahul Mohanani, Alexander Chatzigeorgiou
    Abstract:

    Technical Debt management decisions always imply a trade-off among outcomes at different points in time. In such interTemporal choices, distant outcomes are often valued lower than close ones, a phenomenon known as Temporal Discounting. Technical Debt research largely develops prescriptive approaches for how software engineers should make such decisions. Few have studied how they actually make them. This leaves open central questions about how software practitioners make decisions. This paper investigates how software practitioners discount uncertain future outcomes and whether they exhibit Temporal Discounting. We adopt experimental methods from interTemporal choice, an active area of research. We administered an online questionnaire to 33 developers from two companies in which we presented choices between developing a feature and making a longer-term investment in architecture. The results show wide-spread Temporal Discounting with notable differences in individual behavior. The results are consistent with similar studies in consumer behavior and raise a number of questions about the causal factors that influence Temporal Discounting in software engineering. As the first empirical study on interTemporal choice in SE, the paper establishes an empirical basis for understanding how software developers approach interTemporal choice and provides a blueprint for future studies.

  • Temporal Discounting in Software Engineering: A Replication Study
    2019 ACM IEEE International Symposium on Empirical Software Engineering and Measurement (ESEM), 2019
    Co-Authors: Fabian Fagerholm, Christoph Becker, Alexander Chatzigeorgiou, Stefanie Betz, Leticia Duboc, Birgit Penzenstadler, Rahul Mohanani, Colin C. Venters
    Abstract:

    Background: Many decisions made in Software Engineering practices are interTemporal choices: trade-offs in time between closer options with potential short-term benefit and future options with potential long-term benefit. However, how software professionals make interTemporal decisions is not well understood. Aim: This paper investigates how shifting time frames influence preferences in software projects in relation to purposefully selected background factors. Method: We investigate Temporal Discounting by replicating a questionnaire-based observational study. The replication uses a changed-population and -experimenter design to increase the internal and external validity of the original results. Results: The results of this study confirm the occurrence of Temporal Discounting in samples of both professional and student participants from different countries and demonstrate strong variance in Discounting between study participants. We found that professional experience influenced Discounting. Participants with broader professional experience exhibited less Discounting than those with narrower experience. Conclusions: The results provide strong empirical support for the relevance and importance of Temporal Discounting in SE and the urgency of targeted interdisciplinary research to explore the underlying mechanisms and their theoretical and practical implications. The results suggest that technical debt management could be improved by increasing the breadth of experience available for critical decisions with long-term impact. In addition, the present study provides a methodological basis for replicating Temporal Discounting studies in software engineering.

  • ESEM - Temporal Discounting in Software Engineering: A Replication Study
    2019 ACM IEEE International Symposium on Empirical Software Engineering and Measurement (ESEM), 2019
    Co-Authors: Fabian Fagerholm, Christoph Becker, Alexander Chatzigeorgiou, Stefanie Betz, Leticia Duboc, Birgit Penzenstadler, Rahul Mohanani, Colin C. Venters
    Abstract:

    Background: Many decisions made in Software Engineering practices are interTemporal choices: trade-offs in time between closer options with potential short-term benefit and future options with potential long-term benefit. However, how software professionals make interTemporal decisions is not well understood. Aim: This paper investigates how shifting time frames influence preferences in software projects in relation to purposefully selected background factors. Method: We investigate Temporal Discounting by replicating a questionnaire-based observational study. The replication uses a changed-population and -experimenter design to increase the internal and external validity of the original results. Results: The results of this study confirm the occurrence of Temporal Discounting in samples of both professional and student participants from different countries and demonstrate strong variance in Discounting between study participants. We found that professional experience influenced Discounting. Participants with broader professional experience exhibited less Discounting than those with narrower experience. Conclusions: The results provide strong empirical support for the relevance and importance of Temporal Discounting in SE and the urgency of targeted interdisciplinary research to explore the underlying mechanisms and their theoretical and practical implications. The results suggest that technical debt management could be improved by increasing the breadth of experience available for critical decisions with long-term impact. In addition, the present study provides a methodological basis for replicating Temporal Discounting studies in software engineering.