The Experts below are selected from a list of 94830 Experts worldwide ranked by ideXlab platform
Alan B Krueger - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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the evolution of rotation group bias will the real Unemployment Rate please stand up
The Review of Economics and Statistics, 2017Co-Authors: Alan B Krueger, Alexandre Mas, Xiaotong NiuAbstract:We document that rotation group bias—the tendency for the Unemployment Rate to vary systematically by month in sample—in the Current Population Survey (CPS) has worsened over time. Estimated Unemployment Rates for earlier rotation groups have grown sharply relative to later rotation groups; both should be nationally representative samples. This bias increased discretely after the 1994 CPS redesign, and rising nonresponse Rates are likely a significant contributor. Survey nonresponse increased after the redesign, mirroring the evolution of rotation group bias. Consistent with this explanation, rotation group bias for households that responded in all eight interviews remained stable over time.
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the evolution of rotation group bias will the real Unemployment Rate please stand up
National Bureau of Economic Research, 2014Co-Authors: Alan B Krueger, Alexandre Mas, Xiaotong NiuAbstract:This paper documents that rotation group bias -- the tendency for labor force statistics to vary systematically by month in sample in labor force surveys -- in the Current Population Survey (CPS) has worsened considerably over time. The estimated Unemployment Rate for earlier rotation groups has grown sharply relative to the Unemployment Rate for later rotation groups; both should be nationally representative samples. The rise in rotation group bias is driven by a growing tendency for respondents to report job search in earlier rotations relative to later rotations. We investigate explanations for the change in bias. We find that rotation group bias increased discretely after the 1994 CPS redesign and that rising nonresponse is likely a significant contributor. Survey nonresponse increased after the redesign, and subsequently trended upward, mirroring the time pattern of rotation group bias. Consistent with this explanation, there is only a small increase in rotation group bias for households that responded in all eight interviews. An analysis of rotation group bias in Canada and the U.K. reveal no rotation group bias in Canada and a modest and declining bias in the U.K. There is not a "Heisenberg Principle" of rotation group bias, whereby the bias is an inherent feature of repeated interviewing. We explore alternative weightings of the Unemployment Rate by rotation group and find that, despite the rise in rotation group bias, the official Unemployment does no worse than these other measures in predicting alternative measures of economic slack or fitting key macroeconomic relationships.
Xiaotong Niu - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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the evolution of rotation group bias will the real Unemployment Rate please stand up
The Review of Economics and Statistics, 2017Co-Authors: Alan B Krueger, Alexandre Mas, Xiaotong NiuAbstract:We document that rotation group bias—the tendency for the Unemployment Rate to vary systematically by month in sample—in the Current Population Survey (CPS) has worsened over time. Estimated Unemployment Rates for earlier rotation groups have grown sharply relative to later rotation groups; both should be nationally representative samples. This bias increased discretely after the 1994 CPS redesign, and rising nonresponse Rates are likely a significant contributor. Survey nonresponse increased after the redesign, mirroring the evolution of rotation group bias. Consistent with this explanation, rotation group bias for households that responded in all eight interviews remained stable over time.
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the evolution of rotation group bias will the real Unemployment Rate please stand up
National Bureau of Economic Research, 2014Co-Authors: Alan B Krueger, Alexandre Mas, Xiaotong NiuAbstract:This paper documents that rotation group bias -- the tendency for labor force statistics to vary systematically by month in sample in labor force surveys -- in the Current Population Survey (CPS) has worsened considerably over time. The estimated Unemployment Rate for earlier rotation groups has grown sharply relative to the Unemployment Rate for later rotation groups; both should be nationally representative samples. The rise in rotation group bias is driven by a growing tendency for respondents to report job search in earlier rotations relative to later rotations. We investigate explanations for the change in bias. We find that rotation group bias increased discretely after the 1994 CPS redesign and that rising nonresponse is likely a significant contributor. Survey nonresponse increased after the redesign, and subsequently trended upward, mirroring the time pattern of rotation group bias. Consistent with this explanation, there is only a small increase in rotation group bias for households that responded in all eight interviews. An analysis of rotation group bias in Canada and the U.K. reveal no rotation group bias in Canada and a modest and declining bias in the U.K. There is not a "Heisenberg Principle" of rotation group bias, whereby the bias is an inherent feature of repeated interviewing. We explore alternative weightings of the Unemployment Rate by rotation group and find that, despite the rise in rotation group bias, the official Unemployment does no worse than these other measures in predicting alternative measures of economic slack or fitting key macroeconomic relationships.
Alexandre Mas - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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the evolution of rotation group bias will the real Unemployment Rate please stand up
The Review of Economics and Statistics, 2017Co-Authors: Alan B Krueger, Alexandre Mas, Xiaotong NiuAbstract:We document that rotation group bias—the tendency for the Unemployment Rate to vary systematically by month in sample—in the Current Population Survey (CPS) has worsened over time. Estimated Unemployment Rates for earlier rotation groups have grown sharply relative to later rotation groups; both should be nationally representative samples. This bias increased discretely after the 1994 CPS redesign, and rising nonresponse Rates are likely a significant contributor. Survey nonresponse increased after the redesign, mirroring the evolution of rotation group bias. Consistent with this explanation, rotation group bias for households that responded in all eight interviews remained stable over time.
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the evolution of rotation group bias will the real Unemployment Rate please stand up
National Bureau of Economic Research, 2014Co-Authors: Alan B Krueger, Alexandre Mas, Xiaotong NiuAbstract:This paper documents that rotation group bias -- the tendency for labor force statistics to vary systematically by month in sample in labor force surveys -- in the Current Population Survey (CPS) has worsened considerably over time. The estimated Unemployment Rate for earlier rotation groups has grown sharply relative to the Unemployment Rate for later rotation groups; both should be nationally representative samples. The rise in rotation group bias is driven by a growing tendency for respondents to report job search in earlier rotations relative to later rotations. We investigate explanations for the change in bias. We find that rotation group bias increased discretely after the 1994 CPS redesign and that rising nonresponse is likely a significant contributor. Survey nonresponse increased after the redesign, and subsequently trended upward, mirroring the time pattern of rotation group bias. Consistent with this explanation, there is only a small increase in rotation group bias for households that responded in all eight interviews. An analysis of rotation group bias in Canada and the U.K. reveal no rotation group bias in Canada and a modest and declining bias in the U.K. There is not a "Heisenberg Principle" of rotation group bias, whereby the bias is an inherent feature of repeated interviewing. We explore alternative weightings of the Unemployment Rate by rotation group and find that, despite the rise in rotation group bias, the official Unemployment does no worse than these other measures in predicting alternative measures of economic slack or fitting key macroeconomic relationships.
Andrea Pierini - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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combining official and google trends data to forecast the italian youth Unemployment Rate
Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2017Co-Authors: Alessia Naccarato, Stefano Falorsi, S Loriga, Andrea PieriniAbstract:The increased availability of online information in recent years has aroused interest in the possibility of deriving indications for many kinds of phenomena. In the more specific economic and statistical context, numerous studies suggest the use of online search data to improve the forecasting and nowcasting of official economic indicators with a view to increasing the promptness of their circulation. The purpose of this work is to investigate if the use of big data can improve the forecasting of the youth Unemployment Rate – estimated in Italy on a monthly basis by the Italian National Institute of Statistics – by means of time series models. The time series used are those of the Google Trends query share for the keyword offerte di lavoro (job offers) and the official labour force survey data for the Italian youth Unemployment Rate since 2004. Two different models are estimated: an ARIMA model using only the official youth Unemployment Rate series and a VAR model combining the former series with the Google Trends query share. The results show that the use of Google Trends information leads to an average decrease in the forecast error.
Melvin D Livingston - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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effects of increased minimum wages by Unemployment Rate on suicide in the usa
Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health, 2020Co-Authors: John A Kaufman, Leslie Salashernandez, Kelli A Komro, Melvin D LivingstonAbstract:Background Social welfare policies such as the minimum wage can affect population health, though the impact may differ by the level of Unemployment experienced by society at a given time. Methods We ran difference-in-differences models using monthly data from all 50 states and Washington, DC from 1990 to 2015. We used educational attainment to define treatment and control groups. The exposure was the difference between state and federal minimum wage in US$2015, defined both by the date the state law became effective and lagged by 1 year. Models included state and year fixed effects, and additional state-level covariates to account for state-specific time-varying confounding. We assessed effect modification by the state-level Unemployment Rate, and estimated predicted suicide counts under different minimum wage scenarios. Results The effect of a US$1 increase in the minimum wage ranged from a 3.4% decrease (95% CI 0.4 to 6.4) to a 5.9% decrease (95% CI 1.4 to 10.2) in the suicide Rate among adults aged 18–64 years with a high school education or less. We detected significant effect modification by Unemployment Rate, with the largest effects of minimum wage on reducing suicides observed at higher Unemployment levels. Conclusion Minimum wage increases appear to reduce the suicide Rate among those with a high school education or less, and may reduce disparities between socioeconomic groups. Effects appear greatest during periods of high Unemployment.
