Unintended Consequence

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Charles Courtemanche - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.

  • rising cigarette prices and rising obesity coincidence or Unintended Consequence
    Journal of Health Economics, 2009
    Co-Authors: Charles Courtemanche
    Abstract:

    Economists have begun to debate if the rise in cigarette prices in the U.S. in recent decades has contributed to the nation’s rise in obesity, reaching conclusions that are surprisingly sensitive to specification. I show that allowing for the effect to occur gradually over several years leads to the conclusion that a rise in cigarette prices is actually associated with a long-run reduction in body mass index and obesity. This result is robust to the different methodologies used in the literature. I also provide evidence that indirect effects on exercise and food consumption may explain the counterintuitive result.

  • rising cigarette prices and rising obesity coincidence or Unintended Consequence
    2008
    Co-Authors: Charles Courtemanche
    Abstract:

    Economists have begun to debate if the rise in cigarette prices in the U.S. in recent decades has contributed to the nation's rise in obesity, reaching conclusions that are surprisingly sensitive to specification. I show that allowing for the effect to occur gradually over several years leads to the conclusion that a rise in cigarette prices is actually associated with a long-run reduction in body mass index and obesity. This result is robust to the different ethodologies used in the literature. I also provide evidence that indirect effects on exercise and food consumption may explain the counterintuitive result. I hypothesize that people who quit smoking experience a renewed interest in their health, increased confidence in their self-control, and a replenished stock of willpower, causing them to make healthier decisions in other areas as well.

Chikwe Ihekweazu - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.

  • human monkeypox after 40 years an Unintended Consequence of smallpox eradication
    Vaccine, 2020
    Co-Authors: Karl Simpson, David L. Heymann, Colin S Brown, Jesper Elsgaard, Paul E. M. Fine, Hubertus Hochrein, Nicole A. Hoff, Andrew Green, John W Edmunds, Chikwe Ihekweazu
    Abstract:

    Abstract Smallpox eradication, coordinated by the WHO and certified 40 years ago, led to the cessation of routine smallpox vaccination in most countries. It is estimated that over 70% of the world’s population is no longer protected against smallpox, and through cross-immunity, to closely related orthopox viruses such as monkeypox. Monkeypox is now a re-emerging disease. Monkeypox is endemic in as yet unconfirmed animal reservoirs in sub-Saharan Africa, while its human epidemiology appears to be changing. Monkeypox in small animals imported from Ghana as exotic pets was at the origin of an outbreak of human monkeypox in the USA in 2003. Travellers infected in Nigeria were at the origin of monkeypox cases in the UK in 2018 and 2019, Israel in 2018 and Singapore in2019. Together with sporadic reports of human infections with other orthopox viruses, these facts invite speculation that emergent or re-emergent human monkeypox might fill the epidemiological niche vacated by smallpox. An ad-hoc and unofficial group of interested experts met to consider these issues at Chatham House, London in June 2019, in order to review available data and identify monkeypox-related research gaps. Gaps identified by the experts included: • understanding of zoonotic hosts, reservoirs and vectors. • risks associated with transmission. • full description of the clinical spectrum and the natural history of infection including an estimation of the prevalence of monkeypox specific antibodies in humans living in areas of emergence. The experts further agreed on the need for a better understanding of the genomic evolution and changing epidemiology of orthopox viruses, the usefulness of in-field genomic diagnostics, and the best disease control strategies, including the possibility of vaccination with new generation non-replicating smallpox vaccines and treatment with recently developed antivirals.

  • Human monkeypox – After 40 years, an Unintended Consequence of smallpox eradication
    Vaccine, 2020
    Co-Authors: Karl Simpson, David L. Heymann, Colin S Brown, W. John Edmunds, Jesper Elsgaard, Paul E. M. Fine, Hubertus Hochrein, Nicole A. Hoff, Andrew Green, Chikwe Ihekweazu
    Abstract:

    Abstract Smallpox eradication, coordinated by the WHO and certified 40 years ago, led to the cessation of routine smallpox vaccination in most countries. It is estimated that over 70% of the world’s population is no longer protected against smallpox, and through cross-immunity, to closely related orthopox viruses such as monkeypox. Monkeypox is now a re-emerging disease. Monkeypox is endemic in as yet unconfirmed animal reservoirs in sub-Saharan Africa, while its human epidemiology appears to be changing. Monkeypox in small animals imported from Ghana as exotic pets was at the origin of an outbreak of human monkeypox in the USA in 2003. Travellers infected in Nigeria were at the origin of monkeypox cases in the UK in 2018 and 2019, Israel in 2018 and Singapore in2019. Together with sporadic reports of human infections with other orthopox viruses, these facts invite speculation that emergent or re-emergent human monkeypox might fill the epidemiological niche vacated by smallpox. An ad-hoc and unofficial group of interested experts met to consider these issues at Chatham House, London in June 2019, in order to review available data and identify monkeypox-related research gaps. Gaps identified by the experts included: • understanding of zoonotic hosts, reservoirs and vectors. • risks associated with transmission. • full description of the clinical spectrum and the natural history of infection including an estimation of the prevalence of monkeypox specific antibodies in humans living in areas of emergence. The experts further agreed on the need for a better understanding of the genomic evolution and changing epidemiology of orthopox viruses, the usefulness of in-field genomic diagnostics, and the best disease control strategies, including the possibility of vaccination with new generation non-replicating smallpox vaccines and treatment with recently developed antivirals.

Zahir Irani - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.

  • making sense of rework and its Unintended Consequence in projects the emergence of uncomfortable knowledge
    International Journal of Project Management, 2019
    Co-Authors: Peter E D Love, Jim Smith, Fran Ackermann, Zahir Irani
    Abstract:

    Abstract To make sense of the rework phenomena that plagues construction projects a longitudinal exploration and mixed-method approach was undertaken to understand its causal setting and why it remained an on-going issue for organizations contracted to deliver an asset. The research reveals that rework was an zemblanity (i.e., being an unpleasant un-surprise) that resulted in: (1) project managers ignoring established organization-wide procedures and, at their discretion, amend them to suit their own goals while denouncing the importance of recording and learning from non-conformances; (2) a deficiency of organizational controls and routines to contain and reduce rework; and (3) an absence of an organization-project dyad that supported and promoted an environment of psychological safety. A new theoretical conceptualization of error causation that is intricately linked to rework and safety incidents is presented. The research provides managers with “uncomfortable knowledge’, which is needed to provide insights into the determinants of rework that form part of their everyday practice.

Lin Nan - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.

  • an Unintended Consequence of sfas 133 promoting speculation
    Journal of Management Accounting Research, 2011
    Co-Authors: Lin Nan
    Abstract:

    ABSTRACT: The Statement of Financial Accounting Standards No. 133 (SFAS 133) allows firms to apply hedge accounting only to qualified hedges that pass effectiveness tests. Unqualified hedges (speculations) are required to be marked to market, and the unrealized gains/losses are to be recognized in earnings immediately. The purpose of SFAS 133 is to improve the timeliness of the information about financial derivatives risk. This paper, however, shows through a specific agency model that the early recognition of the unqualified use of derivatives may change the risk allocation in the manager's compensation and motivate speculation. Speculation is modeled as engaging in high-risk, high-return derivatives contracts, while hedging activities are modeled as engaging in low-risk, low-return contracts (the low return is normalized to be zero for simplicity). The higher expected return from speculation makes it possible for the principal to offer a lower incentive in the early stage of derivative contracts. The lo...

  • an Unintended Consequence of sfas 133 promoting speculation
    2010
    Co-Authors: Lin Nan
    Abstract:

    The Statement of Financial Accounting Standards No.133 (SFAS 133) allows firms to apply hedge accounting only to qualified hedges that pass effectiveness tests. Unqualified hedges (speculations) are required to be marked to market, and the unrealized gains/losses are to be recognized in earnings immediately. The purpose of SFAS 133 is to improve the timeliness of the information about financial derivatives risk. This paper, however, shows through a specific agency model that the early recognition of the unqualified use of derivatives may change the risk allocation in the manager's compensation and motivate speculation. Speculation is modeled as engaging in high-risk high-return derivatives contracts, while hedging activities are modeled as engaging in low-risk low return contracts (the low return is normalized to be zero for simplicity). The higher expected return from speculation makes it possible for the principal to offer a lower incentive in the early stage of derivative contracts. The lower incentive, in return, makes speculation less detrimental when the induced volatility is recognized earlier than the maturity date of the contracts, because the induced risk premium is decreased with the lower incentive.

Romain Houssa - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.

  • the Unintended Consequence of an export ban evidence from benin s shrimp sector
    World Development, 2015
    Co-Authors: Romain Houssa, Marijke Verpoorten
    Abstract:

    Summary The inability of Benin to comply with EU standards led to a ban on its shrimp exports. We show that the ban had a negative impact on the income of fishmongers and fishermen, in the short run, but also several years after it was lifted. The impact persisted because exports to the EU did not revive and the local shrimp demand could not fully compensate for the loss of the EU market. A small number of local actors coped with the ban by moving out of the sector, but the large majority were locked in the local fishery sector.

  • the Unintended Consequence of an export ban evidence from benin s shrimp sector
    2013
    Co-Authors: Romain Houssa, Marijke Verpoorten
    Abstract:

    The inability of Benin to comply with EU standards led to a ban on its shrimp exports. The ban had a negative impact on the exporting firms, the fishmongers and the artisanal fishermen, even several years after it was lifted. Exports did not revive because local and international institutions failed to resolve the sector’s increased perceived riskiness and its inadequate financial and technical resources. For the fishermen, the impact of the ban persisted because they were locked in the fishery sector, and the local shrimp demand could not fully compensate for the loss of the EU market.