The Experts below are selected from a list of 1968 Experts worldwide ranked by ideXlab platform
Masakazu Shimada - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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adaptation to the new land or effect of global warming an age structured model for rapid Voltinism change in an alien lepidopteran pest
Journal of Animal Ecology, 2008Co-Authors: Takehiko Yamanaka, Sadahiro Tatsuki, Masakazu ShimadaAbstract:Summary 1 Hyphantria cunea Drury invaded Japan at Tokyo in 1945 and expanded its distribution gradually into northern and south-western Japan. All populations in Japan were bivoltine until the early 1970s, at which time trivoltine populations appeared in several southern regions. Presently, H. cunea exists as separate bivoltine and trivoltine populations divided around latitude 36°. In the course of this Voltinism change, the mean surface temperature in Japan rose by 1·0 °C. 2 To determine whether and how this temperature increase might be responsible for the Voltinism change, we constructed an age-structured model incorporating growth speed driven by actual daily temperature and detailed mechanisms of diapause induction triggered by both daily photoperiod and temperature. 3 The simulation result suggests that both the acceleration of the growth speed and the prolongation of diapause induction are necessary to cause changes in Voltinism, regardless of temperature increase. We concluded that the H. cunea population changed its life-history traits as an adaptation parallel with its invasion into the south-western parts of Japan. 4 Though the temperature increase had little effect on the fitness and heat stress in bivoltine and trivoltine populations, the trivoltine life cycle has become advantageous at least in marginal regions such as Tokyo.
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Adaptation to the new land or effect of global warming? An age‐structured model for rapid Voltinism change in an alien lepidopteran pest
The Journal of animal ecology, 2008Co-Authors: Takehiko Yamanaka, Sadahiro Tatsuki, Masakazu ShimadaAbstract:Summary 1 Hyphantria cunea Drury invaded Japan at Tokyo in 1945 and expanded its distribution gradually into northern and south-western Japan. All populations in Japan were bivoltine until the early 1970s, at which time trivoltine populations appeared in several southern regions. Presently, H. cunea exists as separate bivoltine and trivoltine populations divided around latitude 36°. In the course of this Voltinism change, the mean surface temperature in Japan rose by 1·0 °C. 2 To determine whether and how this temperature increase might be responsible for the Voltinism change, we constructed an age-structured model incorporating growth speed driven by actual daily temperature and detailed mechanisms of diapause induction triggered by both daily photoperiod and temperature. 3 The simulation result suggests that both the acceleration of the growth speed and the prolongation of diapause induction are necessary to cause changes in Voltinism, regardless of temperature increase. We concluded that the H. cunea population changed its life-history traits as an adaptation parallel with its invasion into the south-western parts of Japan. 4 Though the temperature increase had little effect on the fitness and heat stress in bivoltine and trivoltine populations, the trivoltine life cycle has become advantageous at least in marginal regions such as Tokyo.
Frank Suhling - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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Large spatial scale effects of rising temperatures: modelling a dragonfly’s life cycle and range throughout Europe
Insect Conservation and Diversity, 2012Co-Authors: Dagmar Söndgerath, Janin Rummland, Frank SuhlingAbstract:. 1. Rising environmental temperature will likely affect life cycle and range of species. To forecast such effects in an odonate, we simulated the continent-wide life cycle distribution pattern and range of a dragonfly applying a dynamic population model. 2. The model was used to investigate how much of the current Voltinism patterns and distribution range of the species are correctly predicted by using temperature and day length as the only environmental factors. We forecasted the range and Voltinism changes on a European extent for the year 2050 using one GCM (CSIRO) driven by one greenhouse gas emission scenario (b2a) according to the IPCC. 3. The model run lead to 80% correctly predicted distribution range, with a sensitivity of 94% and a specificity of 55%, the latter because of high error in predicting absence in southern Europe. 4. The projected Voltinism ranged from 1 to 2 years per generation in southern latitudes to 5 years in the north. A comparison with field data indicated correct predictions in 50% of all cases, while the other 50% were slight over- or underestimates by half a year per generation. 5. We conclude that the model led to sufficient predictions of range as well as of life cycle pattern in central and northern Europe. Wrong predictions of presence for southern Europe may be caused by factors not recognised in the model, likely competition by con generics, while incorrect Voltinism was possibly because of habitat effects. 6. Simulations with increased temperature scenarios implied a future northward shift of the fundamental niche and a decreased development duration towards the northern range.
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Voltinism flexibility of a riverine dragonfly along thermal gradients
Global Change Biology, 2007Co-Authors: Erik Braune, Otto Richter, Dagmar Söndgerath, Frank SuhlingAbstract:Potential effects of future warming should be reflected in life history patterns of aquatic organisms observed in warmer climates or in habitats that are different in ambient temperature. In the special case of the dragonfly Gomphus vulgatissimus (L.) (Odonata: Gomphidae) previous research suggests that Voltinism decreases from south to north. We analysed data on Voltinism from 11 sample sites along a latitudinal gradient from about 44°N to 53°N, comprising small streams to medium-sized rivers. Furthermore, to simulate different conditions and to allow projections for future climate change scenarios, we developed a population dynamic model based on a projection matrix approach. The parameters of the model are dependent on temperature and day length. Our field results indicate a decrease in Voltinism along the latitudinal gradient from southern to northern Europe and a corresponding increase of Voltinism with higher temperatures. An increase in Voltinism with width of the running water implies an effect of varying habitat temperature. Under the impact of global warming, our model predicts an increased development speed, particularly in the northern part of the latitudinal gradient, an extension of the northern range limit and changes in phenology of G. vulgatissimus, leading to an extension of the flight season in certain regions along the gradient.
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Voltinism of Odonata: a review
International Journal of Odonatology, 2006Co-Authors: Philip S. Corbet, Frank Suhling, Dagmar SoendgerathAbstract:Abstract We classified 542 records of Voltinism for 275 species and subspecies of Odonata according to three variables: geographical latitude, systematic position and habitat type. We sorted records according to Voltinism—categories being three or more generations per year, two generations per year, one generation per year, one generation in two years and one generation in three or more years. We sought to correlate the Voltinism of each record with latitude of the study site, thus demonstrating an overall negative correlation between Voltinism and latitude. After allowing for phylogenetic similarity a negative correlation remains, although it decreases in strength after removal of taxonomic correlates, mainly between family and genus levels. A negative correlation exists at the species level within most families, with the exception of Lestidae. In genera for which we lacked data for latitudes 0-31°N/S no significant correlation between latitude and Voltinism exists. In temporary waters most species compl...
Takehiko Yamanaka - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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adaptation to the new land or effect of global warming an age structured model for rapid Voltinism change in an alien lepidopteran pest
Journal of Animal Ecology, 2008Co-Authors: Takehiko Yamanaka, Sadahiro Tatsuki, Masakazu ShimadaAbstract:Summary 1 Hyphantria cunea Drury invaded Japan at Tokyo in 1945 and expanded its distribution gradually into northern and south-western Japan. All populations in Japan were bivoltine until the early 1970s, at which time trivoltine populations appeared in several southern regions. Presently, H. cunea exists as separate bivoltine and trivoltine populations divided around latitude 36°. In the course of this Voltinism change, the mean surface temperature in Japan rose by 1·0 °C. 2 To determine whether and how this temperature increase might be responsible for the Voltinism change, we constructed an age-structured model incorporating growth speed driven by actual daily temperature and detailed mechanisms of diapause induction triggered by both daily photoperiod and temperature. 3 The simulation result suggests that both the acceleration of the growth speed and the prolongation of diapause induction are necessary to cause changes in Voltinism, regardless of temperature increase. We concluded that the H. cunea population changed its life-history traits as an adaptation parallel with its invasion into the south-western parts of Japan. 4 Though the temperature increase had little effect on the fitness and heat stress in bivoltine and trivoltine populations, the trivoltine life cycle has become advantageous at least in marginal regions such as Tokyo.
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Adaptation to the new land or effect of global warming? An age‐structured model for rapid Voltinism change in an alien lepidopteran pest
The Journal of animal ecology, 2008Co-Authors: Takehiko Yamanaka, Sadahiro Tatsuki, Masakazu ShimadaAbstract:Summary 1 Hyphantria cunea Drury invaded Japan at Tokyo in 1945 and expanded its distribution gradually into northern and south-western Japan. All populations in Japan were bivoltine until the early 1970s, at which time trivoltine populations appeared in several southern regions. Presently, H. cunea exists as separate bivoltine and trivoltine populations divided around latitude 36°. In the course of this Voltinism change, the mean surface temperature in Japan rose by 1·0 °C. 2 To determine whether and how this temperature increase might be responsible for the Voltinism change, we constructed an age-structured model incorporating growth speed driven by actual daily temperature and detailed mechanisms of diapause induction triggered by both daily photoperiod and temperature. 3 The simulation result suggests that both the acceleration of the growth speed and the prolongation of diapause induction are necessary to cause changes in Voltinism, regardless of temperature increase. We concluded that the H. cunea population changed its life-history traits as an adaptation parallel with its invasion into the south-western parts of Japan. 4 Though the temperature increase had little effect on the fitness and heat stress in bivoltine and trivoltine populations, the trivoltine life cycle has become advantageous at least in marginal regions such as Tokyo.
Jianli Huang - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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Potential overwintering boundary and Voltinism changes in the brown planthopper, Nilaparvata lugens, in China in response to global warming
Climatic Change, 2015Co-Authors: Maolin Hou, Guoshu Wei, Baoku Shi, Jianli HuangAbstract:The brown planthopper Nilaparvata lugens (Stal) is a major rice insect pest in China and other Asian countries. This study assessed a potential northward shift in the overwintering boundaries and changes in the overwintering areas and Voltinism of this planthopper species in China in response to global warming. Temperature data generated by 15 Global Circulation Models (GCMs) from 2010 to 2099 were employed to analyze the planthopper’s overwintering boundaries and overwintering areas in conjunction with three Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). Planthopper Voltinism from 1961 to 2050 was analyzed in scenario A2 using degree-day models with projections from the regional circulation model (RCM) Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies (PRECIS). In both analyses, 1961–1990 served as the baseline period. Both the intermittent and constant overwintering boundaries were projected to shift northward; these shifts were more pronounced during later time periods and in scenarios A2 and A1B. The intermittent overwintering area was modeled to increase by 11, 24 and 44 %, and the constant overwintering area, by 66, 206 and 477 %, during the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s, respectively. Planthopper Voltinism will increase by
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potential overwintering boundary and Voltinism changes in the brown planthopper nilaparvata lugens in china in response to global warming
Climatic Change, 2015Co-Authors: Maolin Hou, Guoshu Wei, Baoku Shi, Jianli HuangAbstract:The brown planthopper Nilaparvata lugens (Stal) is a major rice insect pest in China and other Asian countries. This study assessed a potential northward shift in the overwintering boundaries and changes in the overwintering areas and Voltinism of this planthopper species in China in response to global warming. Temperature data generated by 15 Global Circulation Models (GCMs) from 2010 to 2099 were employed to analyze the planthopper’s overwintering boundaries and overwintering areas in conjunction with three Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). Planthopper Voltinism from 1961 to 2050 was analyzed in scenario A2 using degree-day models with projections from the regional circulation model (RCM) Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies (PRECIS). In both analyses, 1961–1990 served as the baseline period. Both the intermittent and constant overwintering boundaries were projected to shift northward; these shifts were more pronounced during later time periods and in scenarios A2 and A1B. The intermittent overwintering area was modeled to increase by 11, 24 and 44 %, and the constant overwintering area, by 66, 206 and 477 %, during the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s, respectively. Planthopper Voltinism will increase by <0.5, 0.5–1.0 and 1.0–1.4 generations in northern, central and southern China, respectively, in 2021–2050. Our results suggest that the brown planthopper will overwinter in a much larger region and will produce more generations under future climate warming scenarios. As a result, the planthopper will exert an even greater threat to China’s rice production in the future.
Dagmar Söndgerath - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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Large spatial scale effects of rising temperatures: modelling a dragonfly’s life cycle and range throughout Europe
Insect Conservation and Diversity, 2012Co-Authors: Dagmar Söndgerath, Janin Rummland, Frank SuhlingAbstract:. 1. Rising environmental temperature will likely affect life cycle and range of species. To forecast such effects in an odonate, we simulated the continent-wide life cycle distribution pattern and range of a dragonfly applying a dynamic population model. 2. The model was used to investigate how much of the current Voltinism patterns and distribution range of the species are correctly predicted by using temperature and day length as the only environmental factors. We forecasted the range and Voltinism changes on a European extent for the year 2050 using one GCM (CSIRO) driven by one greenhouse gas emission scenario (b2a) according to the IPCC. 3. The model run lead to 80% correctly predicted distribution range, with a sensitivity of 94% and a specificity of 55%, the latter because of high error in predicting absence in southern Europe. 4. The projected Voltinism ranged from 1 to 2 years per generation in southern latitudes to 5 years in the north. A comparison with field data indicated correct predictions in 50% of all cases, while the other 50% were slight over- or underestimates by half a year per generation. 5. We conclude that the model led to sufficient predictions of range as well as of life cycle pattern in central and northern Europe. Wrong predictions of presence for southern Europe may be caused by factors not recognised in the model, likely competition by con generics, while incorrect Voltinism was possibly because of habitat effects. 6. Simulations with increased temperature scenarios implied a future northward shift of the fundamental niche and a decreased development duration towards the northern range.
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Voltinism flexibility of a riverine dragonfly along thermal gradients
Global Change Biology, 2007Co-Authors: Erik Braune, Otto Richter, Dagmar Söndgerath, Frank SuhlingAbstract:Potential effects of future warming should be reflected in life history patterns of aquatic organisms observed in warmer climates or in habitats that are different in ambient temperature. In the special case of the dragonfly Gomphus vulgatissimus (L.) (Odonata: Gomphidae) previous research suggests that Voltinism decreases from south to north. We analysed data on Voltinism from 11 sample sites along a latitudinal gradient from about 44°N to 53°N, comprising small streams to medium-sized rivers. Furthermore, to simulate different conditions and to allow projections for future climate change scenarios, we developed a population dynamic model based on a projection matrix approach. The parameters of the model are dependent on temperature and day length. Our field results indicate a decrease in Voltinism along the latitudinal gradient from southern to northern Europe and a corresponding increase of Voltinism with higher temperatures. An increase in Voltinism with width of the running water implies an effect of varying habitat temperature. Under the impact of global warming, our model predicts an increased development speed, particularly in the northern part of the latitudinal gradient, an extension of the northern range limit and changes in phenology of G. vulgatissimus, leading to an extension of the flight season in certain regions along the gradient.
