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Jia Coco Liu - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.

  • who among the elderly is most vulnerable to exposure to and health risks of fine particulate matter from Wildfire smoke
    American Journal of Epidemiology, 2017
    Co-Authors: Melissa P Sulprizio, Loretta J Mickley, Keita Ebisu, Jia Coco Liu, Xu Yue, Roger D Peng, Ander Wilson, Yun Wang, Francesca Dominici
    Abstract:

    Wildfires burn more than 7 million acres in the United States annually, according to the US Forest Service. Little is known about which subpopulations are more vulnerable to health risks from Wildfire smoke, including those associated with fine particulate matter. We estimated exposure to fine particles specifically from Wildfires, as well as the associations between the presence of Wildfire-specific fine particles and the amount of hospital admissions for respiratory causes among subpopulations older than 65 years of age in the western United States (2004-2009). Compared with other populations, higher fractions of persons who were black, lived in urban counties, and lived in California were exposed to more than 1 smoke wave (high-pollution episodes from Wildfire smoke). The risks of respiratory admissions on smoke-wave days compared with non-smoke-wave days increased 10.4% (95% confidence interval: 1.9, 19.6) for women and 21.7% (95% confidence interval: 0.4, 47.3) for blacks. Our findings suggest that increased risks of respiratory admissions from Wildfire smoke was significantly higher for women than for men (10.4% vs. 3.7%), blacks than whites (21.7% vs. 6.9%), and, although associations were not statistically different, people in lower-education counties than higher-educated counties (12.7% vs. 6.1%). Our study raised important environmental justice issues that can inform public health programs and Wildfire management. As climate change increases the frequency and intensity of Wildfires, evidence on vulnerable subpopulations can inform disaster preparedness and the understanding of climate change consequences.

  • future respiratory hospital admissions from Wildfire smoke under climate change in the western us
    Environmental Research Letters, 2016
    Co-Authors: Melissa P Sulprizio, Loretta J Mickley, Francesca Dominici, Jia Coco Liu, Xu Yue, Roger D Peng, Michelle L Bell
    Abstract:

    Background. Wildfires are anticipated to be more frequent and intense under climate change. As a result, Wildfires may emit more air pollutants that can harm health in communities in the future. The health impacts of Wildfire smoke under climate change are largely unknown. Methods. We linked projections of future levels of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) specifically from Wildfire smoke under the A1B climate change scenario using the GEOS-Chem model for 2046–2051, present-day estimates of hospital admission impacts from Wildfire smoke, and future population projections to estimate the change in respiratory hospital admissions for persons ≥65 years by county (n = 561) from Wildfire PM2.5 under climate change in the Western US. Results. The increase in intense Wildfire smoke days from climate change would result in an estimated 178 (95% confidence interval: 6.2, 361) additional respiratory hospital admissions in the Western US, accounting for estimated future increase in the elderly population. Climate change is estimated to impose an additional 4990 high-pollution smoke days. Central Colorado, Washington and southern California are estimated to experience the highest percentage increase in respiratory admissions from Wildfire smoke under climate change. Conclusion. Although the increase in number of respiratory admissions from Wildfire smoke seems modest, these results provide important scientific evidence of an often-ignored aspect of Wildfire impact, and information on their anticipated spatial distribution. Wildfires can cause serious social burdens such as property damage and suppression cost, but can also raise health problems. The results provide information that can be incorporated into development of environmental and health policies in response to climate change. Climate change adaptation policies could incorporate scientific evidence on health risks from natural disasters such as Wildfires.

  • a systematic review of the physical health impacts from non occupational exposure to Wildfire smoke
    Environmental Research, 2015
    Co-Authors: Jia Coco Liu, Mercedes A Bravo, Gavin Pereira, Sarah A Uhl, Michelle L Bell
    Abstract:

    Abstract Background Climate change is likely to increase the threat of Wildfires, and little is known about how Wildfires affect health in exposed communities. A better understanding of the impacts of the resulting air pollution has important public health implications for the present day and the future. Method We performed a systematic search to identify peer-reviewed scientific studies published since 1986 regarding impacts of Wildfire smoke on health in exposed communities. We reviewed and synthesized the state of science of this issue including methods to estimate exposure, and identified limitations in current research. Results We identified 61 epidemiological studies linking Wildfire and human health in communities. The U.S. and Australia were the most frequently studied countries (18 studies on the U.S., 15 on Australia). Geographic scales ranged from a single small city (population about 55,000) to the entire globe. Most studies focused on areas close to fire events. Exposure was most commonly assessed with stationary air pollutant monitors (35 of 61 studies). Other methods included using satellite remote sensing and measurements from air samples collected during fires. Most studies compared risk of health outcomes between 1) periods with no fire events and periods during or after fire events, or 2) regions affected by Wildfire smoke and unaffected regions. Daily pollution levels during or after Wildfire in most studies exceeded U.S. EPA regulations. Levels of PM 10 , the most frequently studied pollutant, were 1.2 to 10 times higher due to Wildfire smoke compared to non-fire periods and/or locations. Respiratory disease was the most frequently studied health condition, and had the most consistent results. Over 90% of these 45 studies reported that Wildfire smoke was significantly associated with risk of respiratory morbidity. Conclusion Exposure measurement is a key challenge in current literature on Wildfire and human health. A limitation is the difficulty of estimating pollution specific to Wildfires. New methods are needed to separate air pollution levels of Wildfires from those from ambient sources, such as transportation. The majority of studies found that Wildfire smoke was associated with increased risk of respiratory and cardiovascular diseases. Children, the elderly and those with underlying chronic diseases appear to be susceptible. More studies on mortality and cardiovascular morbidity are needed. Further exploration with new methods could help ascertain the public health impacts of Wildfires under climate change and guide mitigation policies.

John R Balmes - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.

  • a review of community smoke exposure from Wildfire compared to prescribed fire in the united states
    Algorithmic Approaches for Transportation Modeling Optimization and Systems, 2018
    Co-Authors: Kathleen M Navarro, John R Balmes, Donald Schweizer, Ricardo Cisneros
    Abstract:

    Prescribed fire, intentionally ignited low-intensity fires, and managed Wildfires—Wildfires that are allowed to burn for land management benefit—could be used as a land management tool to create forests that are resilient to wildland fire. This could lead to fewer large catastrophic Wildfires in the future. However, we must consider the public health impacts of the smoke that is emitted from wildland and prescribed fire. The objective of this synthesis is to examine the differences in ambient community-level exposures to particulate matter (PM2.5) from smoke in the United States in relation to two smoke exposure scenarios—Wildfire fire and prescribed fire. A systematic search was conducted to identify scientific papers to be included in this review. The Web of Science Core Collection and PubMed, for scientific papers, and Google Scholar were used to identify any grey literature or reports to be included in this review. Sixteen studies that examined particulate matter exposure from smoke were identified for this synthesis—nine wildland fire studies and seven prescribed fire studies. PM2.5 concentrations from Wildfire smoke were found to be significantly lower than reported PM2.5 concentrations from prescribed fire smoke. Wildfire studies focused on assessing air quality impacts to communities that were nearby fires and urban centers that were far from Wildfires. However, the prescribed fire studies used air monitoring methods that focused on characterizing exposures and emissions directly from, and next to, the burns. This review highlights a need for a better understanding of Wildfire smoke impact over the landscape. It is essential for properly assessing population exposure to smoke from different fire types.

  • Where There’s Wildfire, There’s Smoke
    The New England Journal of Medicine, 2018
    Co-Authors: John R Balmes
    Abstract:

    Where There’s Wildfire, There’s Smoke When catastrophic Wildfires come near populated urban areas, as recently occurred in California, many people are exposed to relatively high levels of smoke. How should physicians advise patients and the public when they’re facing poor air quality due to Wildfire smoke?

  • where there s Wildfire there s smoke
    The New England Journal of Medicine, 2018
    Co-Authors: John R Balmes
    Abstract:

    Where There’s Wildfire, There’s Smoke When catastrophic Wildfires come near populated urban areas, as recently occurred in California, many people are exposed to relatively high levels of smoke. How should physicians advise patients and the public when they’re facing poor air quality due to Wildfire smoke?

Michelle L Bell - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.

  • future respiratory hospital admissions from Wildfire smoke under climate change in the western us
    Environmental Research Letters, 2016
    Co-Authors: Melissa P Sulprizio, Loretta J Mickley, Francesca Dominici, Jia Coco Liu, Xu Yue, Roger D Peng, Michelle L Bell
    Abstract:

    Background. Wildfires are anticipated to be more frequent and intense under climate change. As a result, Wildfires may emit more air pollutants that can harm health in communities in the future. The health impacts of Wildfire smoke under climate change are largely unknown. Methods. We linked projections of future levels of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) specifically from Wildfire smoke under the A1B climate change scenario using the GEOS-Chem model for 2046–2051, present-day estimates of hospital admission impacts from Wildfire smoke, and future population projections to estimate the change in respiratory hospital admissions for persons ≥65 years by county (n = 561) from Wildfire PM2.5 under climate change in the Western US. Results. The increase in intense Wildfire smoke days from climate change would result in an estimated 178 (95% confidence interval: 6.2, 361) additional respiratory hospital admissions in the Western US, accounting for estimated future increase in the elderly population. Climate change is estimated to impose an additional 4990 high-pollution smoke days. Central Colorado, Washington and southern California are estimated to experience the highest percentage increase in respiratory admissions from Wildfire smoke under climate change. Conclusion. Although the increase in number of respiratory admissions from Wildfire smoke seems modest, these results provide important scientific evidence of an often-ignored aspect of Wildfire impact, and information on their anticipated spatial distribution. Wildfires can cause serious social burdens such as property damage and suppression cost, but can also raise health problems. The results provide information that can be incorporated into development of environmental and health policies in response to climate change. Climate change adaptation policies could incorporate scientific evidence on health risks from natural disasters such as Wildfires.

  • particulate air pollution from Wildfires in the western us under climate change
    Climatic Change, 2016
    Co-Authors: Loretta J Mickley, Melissa P Sulprizio, Keita Ebisu, Georgiana Brooke Anderson, Rafi F A Khan, Mercedes A Bravo, Francesca Dominici, Michelle L Bell
    Abstract:

    Wildfire can impose a direct impact on human health under climate change. While the potential impacts of climate change on Wildfires and resulting air pollution have been studied, it is not known who will be most affected by the growing threat of Wildfires. Identifying communities that will be most affected will inform development of fire management strategies and disaster preparedness programs. We estimate levels of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) directly attributable to Wildfires in 561 western US counties during fire seasons for the present-day (2004–2009) and future (2046–2051), using a fire prediction model and GEOS-Chem, a 3-D global chemical transport model. Future estimates are obtained under a scenario of moderately increasing greenhouse gases by mid-century. We create a new term “Smoke Wave,” defined as ≥2 consecutive days with high Wildfire-specific PM2.5, to describe episodes of high air pollution from Wildfires. We develop an interactive map to demonstrate the counties likely to suffer from future high Wildfire pollution events. For 2004–2009, on days exceeding regulatory PM2.5 standards, Wildfires contributed an average of 71.3 % of total PM2.5. Under future climate change, we estimate that more than 82 million individuals will experience a 57 % and 31 % increase in the frequency and intensity, respectively, of Smoke Waves. Northern California, Western Oregon and the Great Plains are likely to suffer the highest exposure to widlfire smoke in the future. Results point to the potential health impacts of increasing Wildfire activity on large numbers of people in a warming climate and the need to establish or modify US Wildfire management and evacuation programs in high-risk regions. The study also adds to the growing literature arguing that extreme events in a changing climate could have significant consequences for human health.

  • a systematic review of the physical health impacts from non occupational exposure to Wildfire smoke
    Environmental Research, 2015
    Co-Authors: Jia Coco Liu, Mercedes A Bravo, Gavin Pereira, Sarah A Uhl, Michelle L Bell
    Abstract:

    Abstract Background Climate change is likely to increase the threat of Wildfires, and little is known about how Wildfires affect health in exposed communities. A better understanding of the impacts of the resulting air pollution has important public health implications for the present day and the future. Method We performed a systematic search to identify peer-reviewed scientific studies published since 1986 regarding impacts of Wildfire smoke on health in exposed communities. We reviewed and synthesized the state of science of this issue including methods to estimate exposure, and identified limitations in current research. Results We identified 61 epidemiological studies linking Wildfire and human health in communities. The U.S. and Australia were the most frequently studied countries (18 studies on the U.S., 15 on Australia). Geographic scales ranged from a single small city (population about 55,000) to the entire globe. Most studies focused on areas close to fire events. Exposure was most commonly assessed with stationary air pollutant monitors (35 of 61 studies). Other methods included using satellite remote sensing and measurements from air samples collected during fires. Most studies compared risk of health outcomes between 1) periods with no fire events and periods during or after fire events, or 2) regions affected by Wildfire smoke and unaffected regions. Daily pollution levels during or after Wildfire in most studies exceeded U.S. EPA regulations. Levels of PM 10 , the most frequently studied pollutant, were 1.2 to 10 times higher due to Wildfire smoke compared to non-fire periods and/or locations. Respiratory disease was the most frequently studied health condition, and had the most consistent results. Over 90% of these 45 studies reported that Wildfire smoke was significantly associated with risk of respiratory morbidity. Conclusion Exposure measurement is a key challenge in current literature on Wildfire and human health. A limitation is the difficulty of estimating pollution specific to Wildfires. New methods are needed to separate air pollution levels of Wildfires from those from ambient sources, such as transportation. The majority of studies found that Wildfire smoke was associated with increased risk of respiratory and cardiovascular diseases. Children, the elderly and those with underlying chronic diseases appear to be susceptible. More studies on mortality and cardiovascular morbidity are needed. Further exploration with new methods could help ascertain the public health impacts of Wildfires under climate change and guide mitigation policies.

Anthony L Westerling - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.

  • Monster Wildfires and metaphor in risk communication
    Metaphor and Symbol, 2017
    Co-Authors: Teenie Matlock, Anthony L Westerling
    Abstract:

    ABSTRACTThis work examines the use and understanding of metaphor in Wildfire discourse. We focus on the framing of Wildfires as monsters, seen in statements such as “Monster Wildfire rages in Colorado” and “Two monster Wildfires in Northern California are slowly being tamed,” which reflect a “Wildfire is monster” metaphor. Study 1 analyzes how and when this phrase is used in TV news reports of Wildfires, and Study 2A and Study 2B investigate how it influences reasoning about risks associated with Wildfire. The results show that metaphor is widely used in framing news reports about significant Wildfires, and that its use influences how people reason about them. The work is part of a project aimed at developing better ways to communicate about risks related to natural events and climate change.

  • increasing western us forest Wildfire activity sensitivity to changes in the timing of spring
    Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B, 2016
    Co-Authors: Anthony L Westerling
    Abstract:

    Prior work shows western US forest Wildfire activity increased abruptly in the mid-1980s. Large forest Wildfires and areas burned in them have continued to increase over recent decades, with most of the increase in lightning-ignited fires. Northern US Rockies forests dominated early increases in Wildfire activity, and still contributed 50% of the increase in large fires over the last decade. However, the percentage growth in Wildfire activity in Pacific northwestern and southwestern US forests has rapidly increased over the last two decades. Wildfire numbers and burned area are also increasing in non-forest vegetation types. Wildfire activity appears strongly associated with warming and earlier spring snowmelt. Analysis of the drivers of forest Wildfire sensitivity to changes in the timing of spring demonstrates that forests at elevations where the historical mean snow-free season ranged between two and four months, with relatively high cumulative warm-season actual evapotranspiration, have been most affected. Increases in large Wildfires associated with earlier spring snowmelt scale exponentially with changes in moisture deficit, and moisture deficit changes can explain most of the spatial variability in forest Wildfire regime response to the timing of spring.This article is part of the themed issue 'The interaction of fire and mankind'.

  • warming and earlier spring increase western u s forest Wildfire activity
    Science, 2006
    Co-Authors: Anthony L Westerling, Daniel R. Cayan, Hugo G. Hidalgo, Thomas W Swetnam
    Abstract:

    Western United States forest Wildfire activity is widely thought to have increased in recent decades, yet neither the extent of recent changes nor the degree to which climate may be driving regional changes in Wildfire has been systematically documented. Much of the public and scientific discussion of changes in western United States Wildfire has focused instead on the effects of 19th- and 20th-century land-use history. We compiled a comprehensive database of large Wildfires in western United States forests since 1970 and compared it with hydroclimatic and land-surface data. Here, we show that large Wildfire activity increased suddenly and markedly in the mid-1980s, with higher large-Wildfire frequency, longer Wildfire durations, and longer Wildfire seasons. The greatest increases occurred in mid-elevation, Northern Rockies forests, where land-use histories have relatively little effect on fire risks and are strongly associated with increased spring and summer temperatures and an earlier spring snowmelt.

Yiannis Kountouris - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.

  • Examining the relationship between elections and Wildfires
    International Journal of Wildland Fire, 2021
    Co-Authors: Yiannis Kountouris
    Abstract:

    This paper examines the relationship between local elections and Wildfire. Using data of Wildfires in Greek municipalities between 2000 and 2010, I estimate models comparing Wildfire outcomes in local election years against non-election years. I find that Wildfire occurrence and burned area are systematically lower in the years around local elections. In municipalities where incumbents run for re-election, the decrease in Wildfire occurrence is smaller in the years leading to elections, and larger in the years following local elections. There is some limited evidence that the likelihood of re-election influences Wildfire outcomes around the time of local elections. The results suggest a relationship can exist between politics at the local level, Wildfire occurrence and burned area. As political and economic considerations can be important in driving Wildfire outcomes, assessing Wildfire risk cannot take place separately from the prevailing political, economic and institutional environment.

  • human activity daylight saving time and Wildfire occurrence
    Science of The Total Environment, 2020
    Co-Authors: Yiannis Kountouris
    Abstract:

    Abstract Wildfires shape landscapes and ecosystems, affecting health and infrastructure. Understanding the complex interactions between social organization, human activity and the natural environment that drive Wildfire occurrence is becoming increasingly important as changing global environmental conditions combined with the expanding human-wildland interface, are expected to increase Wildfire frequency and severity. This paper examines the anthropogenic drivers of Wildfire, and the relationship between the organization of human activity in time and Wildfire occurrence focusing on the effects of transitions into and out of Daylight Saving Time (DST). DST transitions shift activity in relation to natural Wildfire risk within a solar day, induce changes in the time allocated to Wildfire-causing activities and disrupt sleep patterns. The paper estimates short and medium run effects of DST-induced changes in the temporal organization of human activity through a Regression Discontinuity Design with time as the running variable and Fixed Effects models, using data from over 1.88 million non-prescribed ignitions recorded in the contiguous US over 23 years. Estimates suggest that DST has a quantitatively and statistically significant immediate and medium-run effect on Wildfire occurrence. Wildfire occurrence jumps by around 30% in the immediate aftermath of transitions into DST, adding about 98 human-caused Wildfires across the contiguous US per year, while the transition's effect is detectable for 3 weeks. Transitions induce within-day temporal displacement of Wildfires in a pattern compatible with the shifting of human activity mechanism, while the result cannot be attributed exclusively on disruptions in sleep patterns. Naturally arising lightning-strike Wildfires do not respond to changes in civil time, while the results are robust to changes in assumptions. Results suggest that Wildfire policy should account for the temporal organization of human activity.