The Experts below are selected from a list of 51939 Experts worldwide ranked by ideXlab platform
Jed O Kaplan - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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trends and spatial shifts in lightning fires and smoke concentrations in response to 21st century climate over the national forests and parks of the western united states
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 2020Co-Authors: Yang Li, Loretta J Mickley, Jed O KaplanAbstract:Abstract. Almost USD 3 billion per year is appropriated for wildfire management on public land in the United States. Recent studies have suggested that ongoing climate change will lead to warmer and drier conditions in the western United States, with a consequent increase in the number and size of Wildfires, yet large uncertainty exists in these projections. To assess the influence of future changes in climate and land cover on lightning-caused Wildfires in the national forests and parks of the western United States and the consequences of these fires on air quality, we link a dynamic vegetation model that includes a process-based representation of fire (LPJ-LMfire) to a global chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem). Under a scenario of moderate future climate change (RCP4.5), increasing lightning-caused wildfire enhances the burden of smoke fine particulate matter (PM), with mass concentration increases of ∼53 % by the late 21st century during the fire season in the national forests and parks of the western United States. In a high-emissions scenario (RCP8.5), smoke PM concentrations double by 2100. RCP8.5 also shows enhanced lightning-caused fire activity, especially over forests in the northern states.
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trends and spatial shifts in lightning fires and smoke concentrations in response to 21st century climate over the forests of the western united states
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 2020Co-Authors: Yang Li, Loretta J Mickley, Jed O KaplanAbstract:Abstract. Almost US$ 3bn per year is appropriated for wildfire management on public land in the United States. Recent studies have suggested that ongoing climate change will lead to warmer and drier conditions in the Western United States with a consequent increase in the number and size of Wildfires, yet large uncertainty exists in these projections. To assess the influence of future changes in climate and land cover on lightning-caused Wildfires in National Forests and Parks of the Western United States and the consequences of these fires on air quality, we link a dynamic vegetation model that includes a process-based representation of fire (LPJ-LMfire) to a global chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem). Under a scenario of moderate future climate change (RCP4.5), increasing lightning-caused wildfire enhances the burden of smoke fine particulate matter (PM), with mass concentration increases of ~ 53 % by the late-21st century during the fire season. In a high-emissions scenario (RCP8.5), smoke PM concentrations double by 2100. RCP8.5 also shows large, northward shifts in dry matter burned, leading to enhanced lightning-caused fire activity especially over forests in the northern states.
Loretta J Mickley - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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trends and spatial shifts in lightning fires and smoke concentrations in response to 21st century climate over the national forests and parks of the western united states
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 2020Co-Authors: Yang Li, Loretta J Mickley, Jed O KaplanAbstract:Abstract. Almost USD 3 billion per year is appropriated for wildfire management on public land in the United States. Recent studies have suggested that ongoing climate change will lead to warmer and drier conditions in the western United States, with a consequent increase in the number and size of Wildfires, yet large uncertainty exists in these projections. To assess the influence of future changes in climate and land cover on lightning-caused Wildfires in the national forests and parks of the western United States and the consequences of these fires on air quality, we link a dynamic vegetation model that includes a process-based representation of fire (LPJ-LMfire) to a global chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem). Under a scenario of moderate future climate change (RCP4.5), increasing lightning-caused wildfire enhances the burden of smoke fine particulate matter (PM), with mass concentration increases of ∼53 % by the late 21st century during the fire season in the national forests and parks of the western United States. In a high-emissions scenario (RCP8.5), smoke PM concentrations double by 2100. RCP8.5 also shows enhanced lightning-caused fire activity, especially over forests in the northern states.
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trends and spatial shifts in lightning fires and smoke concentrations in response to 21st century climate over the forests of the western united states
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 2020Co-Authors: Yang Li, Loretta J Mickley, Jed O KaplanAbstract:Abstract. Almost US$ 3bn per year is appropriated for wildfire management on public land in the United States. Recent studies have suggested that ongoing climate change will lead to warmer and drier conditions in the Western United States with a consequent increase in the number and size of Wildfires, yet large uncertainty exists in these projections. To assess the influence of future changes in climate and land cover on lightning-caused Wildfires in National Forests and Parks of the Western United States and the consequences of these fires on air quality, we link a dynamic vegetation model that includes a process-based representation of fire (LPJ-LMfire) to a global chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem). Under a scenario of moderate future climate change (RCP4.5), increasing lightning-caused wildfire enhances the burden of smoke fine particulate matter (PM), with mass concentration increases of ~ 53 % by the late-21st century during the fire season. In a high-emissions scenario (RCP8.5), smoke PM concentrations double by 2100. RCP8.5 also shows large, northward shifts in dry matter burned, leading to enhanced lightning-caused fire activity especially over forests in the northern states.
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particulate air pollution from Wildfires in the western us under climate change
Climatic Change, 2016Co-Authors: Loretta J Mickley, Melissa P Sulprizio, Francesca Dominici, Keita Ebisu, Georgiana Brooke Anderson, Rafi F A Khan, Mercedes A Bravo, Michelle L BellAbstract:Wildfire can impose a direct impact on human health under climate change. While the potential impacts of climate change on Wildfires and resulting air pollution have been studied, it is not known who will be most affected by the growing threat of Wildfires. Identifying communities that will be most affected will inform development of fire management strategies and disaster preparedness programs. We estimate levels of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) directly attributable to Wildfires in 561 western US counties during fire seasons for the present-day (2004–2009) and future (2046–2051), using a fire prediction model and GEOS-Chem, a 3-D global chemical transport model. Future estimates are obtained under a scenario of moderately increasing greenhouse gases by mid-century. We create a new term “Smoke Wave,” defined as ≥2 consecutive days with high wildfire-specific PM2.5, to describe episodes of high air pollution from Wildfires. We develop an interactive map to demonstrate the counties likely to suffer from future high wildfire pollution events. For 2004–2009, on days exceeding regulatory PM2.5 standards, Wildfires contributed an average of 71.3 % of total PM2.5. Under future climate change, we estimate that more than 82 million individuals will experience a 57 % and 31 % increase in the frequency and intensity, respectively, of Smoke Waves. Northern California, Western Oregon and the Great Plains are likely to suffer the highest exposure to widlfire smoke in the future. Results point to the potential health impacts of increasing wildfire activity on large numbers of people in a warming climate and the need to establish or modify US wildfire management and evacuation programs in high-risk regions. The study also adds to the growing literature arguing that extreme events in a changing climate could have significant consequences for human health.
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Wildfires drive interannual variability of organic carbon aerosol in the western u s in summer
Geophysical Research Letters, 2007Co-Authors: D V Spracklen, Loretta J Mickley, Anthony L Westerling, Jennifer A Logan, Rokjin J Park, Rosemarie Yevich, Daniel A JaffeAbstract:[1] Forest wildfire area burned in the western U.S. has increased in recent decades resulting in a substantial organic carbon (OC) source with large interannual variability. We derive OC emissions from Wildfires using data for area burned for 1980–2004 and ecosystem specific fuel loadings. For the period 1989–2004 we analyze OC observations in the western U.S. from the IMPROVE network and use a global chemical transport model to simulate OC concentrations. Modeled and observed OC concentrations are highly correlated when we use interannually varying fire emissions (R2 = 0.88); the correlation is smaller with climatological emissions (R2 = 0.4). We estimate that the observed increase in wildfire activity after the mid 1980s has caused mean OC concentrations in summer over the western U.S. to increase by 30% relative to 1970–1984. In the coming decades, climate change will likely cause further increases in Wildfires resulting in increased OC concentrations with implications for health and visibility.
Yang Li - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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trends and spatial shifts in lightning fires and smoke concentrations in response to 21st century climate over the national forests and parks of the western united states
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 2020Co-Authors: Yang Li, Loretta J Mickley, Jed O KaplanAbstract:Abstract. Almost USD 3 billion per year is appropriated for wildfire management on public land in the United States. Recent studies have suggested that ongoing climate change will lead to warmer and drier conditions in the western United States, with a consequent increase in the number and size of Wildfires, yet large uncertainty exists in these projections. To assess the influence of future changes in climate and land cover on lightning-caused Wildfires in the national forests and parks of the western United States and the consequences of these fires on air quality, we link a dynamic vegetation model that includes a process-based representation of fire (LPJ-LMfire) to a global chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem). Under a scenario of moderate future climate change (RCP4.5), increasing lightning-caused wildfire enhances the burden of smoke fine particulate matter (PM), with mass concentration increases of ∼53 % by the late 21st century during the fire season in the national forests and parks of the western United States. In a high-emissions scenario (RCP8.5), smoke PM concentrations double by 2100. RCP8.5 also shows enhanced lightning-caused fire activity, especially over forests in the northern states.
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trends and spatial shifts in lightning fires and smoke concentrations in response to 21st century climate over the forests of the western united states
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 2020Co-Authors: Yang Li, Loretta J Mickley, Jed O KaplanAbstract:Abstract. Almost US$ 3bn per year is appropriated for wildfire management on public land in the United States. Recent studies have suggested that ongoing climate change will lead to warmer and drier conditions in the Western United States with a consequent increase in the number and size of Wildfires, yet large uncertainty exists in these projections. To assess the influence of future changes in climate and land cover on lightning-caused Wildfires in National Forests and Parks of the Western United States and the consequences of these fires on air quality, we link a dynamic vegetation model that includes a process-based representation of fire (LPJ-LMfire) to a global chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem). Under a scenario of moderate future climate change (RCP4.5), increasing lightning-caused wildfire enhances the burden of smoke fine particulate matter (PM), with mass concentration increases of ~ 53 % by the late-21st century during the fire season. In a high-emissions scenario (RCP8.5), smoke PM concentrations double by 2100. RCP8.5 also shows large, northward shifts in dry matter burned, leading to enhanced lightning-caused fire activity especially over forests in the northern states.
John R. Balmes - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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Where There’s Wildfire, There’s Smoke
The New England Journal of Medicine, 2018Co-Authors: John R. BalmesAbstract:Where There’s Wildfire, There’s Smoke When catastrophic Wildfires come near populated urban areas, as recently occurred in California, many people are exposed to relatively high levels of smoke. How should physicians advise patients and the public when they’re facing poor air quality due to wildfire smoke?
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differential respiratory health effects from the 2008 northern california Wildfires a spatiotemporal approach
Environmental Research, 2016Co-Authors: Colleen E Reid, John R. Balmes, Michael Jerrett, Ira B Tager, Maya L Petersen, Jennifer MannAbstract:Abstract We investigated health effects associated with fine particulate matter during a long-lived, large wildfire complex in northern California in the summer of 2008. We estimated exposure to PM 2.5 for each day using an exposure prediction model created through data-adaptive machine learning methods from a large set of spatiotemporal data sets. We then used Poisson generalized estimating equations to calculate the effect of exposure to 24-hour average PM 2.5 on cardiovascular and respiratory hospitalizations and ED visits. We further assessed effect modification by sex, age, and area-level socioeconomic status (SES). We observed a linear increase in risk for asthma hospitalizations (RR=1.07, 95% CI=(1.05, 1.10) per 5 µg/m 3 increase) and asthma ED visits (RR=1.06, 95% CI=(1.05, 1.07) per 5 µg/m 3 increase) with increasing PM 2.5 during the Wildfires. ED visits for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) were associated with PM 2.5 during the fires (RR=1.02 (95% CI=(1.01, 1.04) per 5 µg/m 3 increase) and this effect was significantly different from that found before the fires but not after. We did not find consistent effects of wildfire smoke on other health outcomes. The effect of PM 2.5 during the wildfire period was more pronounced in women compared to men and in adults, ages 20–64, compared to children and adults 65 or older. We also found some effect modification by area-level median income for respiratory ED visits during the Wildfires, with the highest effects observed in the ZIP codes with the lowest median income. Using a novel spatiotemporal exposure model, we found some evidence of differential susceptibility to exposure to wildfire smoke.
Anthony L Westerling - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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increasing western us forest wildfire activity sensitivity to changes in the timing of spring
Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B, 2016Co-Authors: Anthony L WesterlingAbstract:Prior work shows western US forest wildfire activity increased abruptly in the mid-1980s. Large forest Wildfires and areas burned in them have continued to increase over recent decades, with most o...
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Wildfires drive interannual variability of organic carbon aerosol in the western u s in summer
Geophysical Research Letters, 2007Co-Authors: D V Spracklen, Loretta J Mickley, Anthony L Westerling, Jennifer A Logan, Rokjin J Park, Rosemarie Yevich, Daniel A JaffeAbstract:[1] Forest wildfire area burned in the western U.S. has increased in recent decades resulting in a substantial organic carbon (OC) source with large interannual variability. We derive OC emissions from Wildfires using data for area burned for 1980–2004 and ecosystem specific fuel loadings. For the period 1989–2004 we analyze OC observations in the western U.S. from the IMPROVE network and use a global chemical transport model to simulate OC concentrations. Modeled and observed OC concentrations are highly correlated when we use interannually varying fire emissions (R2 = 0.88); the correlation is smaller with climatological emissions (R2 = 0.4). We estimate that the observed increase in wildfire activity after the mid 1980s has caused mean OC concentrations in summer over the western U.S. to increase by 30% relative to 1970–1984. In the coming decades, climate change will likely cause further increases in Wildfires resulting in increased OC concentrations with implications for health and visibility.
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warming and earlier spring increase western u s forest wildfire activity
Science, 2006Co-Authors: Anthony L Westerling, Hugo G Hidalgo, Daniel R Cayan, Thomas W SwetnamAbstract:Western United States forest wildfire activity is widely thought to have increased in recent decades, yet neither the extent of recent changes nor the degree to which climate may be driving regional changes in wildfire has been systematically documented. Much of the public and scientific discussion of changes in western United States wildfire has focused instead on the effects of 19th- and 20th-century land-use history. We compiled a comprehensive database of large Wildfires in western United States forests since 1970 and compared it with hydroclimatic and land-surface data. Here, we show that large wildfire activity increased suddenly and markedly in the mid-1980s, with higher large-wildfire frequency, longer wildfire durations, and longer wildfire seasons. The greatest increases occurred in mid-elevation, Northern Rockies forests, where land-use histories have relatively little effect on fire risks and are strongly associated with increased spring and summer temperatures and an earlier spring snowmelt.
