The Experts below are selected from a list of 1218 Experts worldwide ranked by ideXlab platform
Loes Aaldering - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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Off the Fence, onto the Bandwagon? A Large-Scale Survey Experiment on Effect of Real-Life Poll Outcomes on Subsequent Vote Intentions
2016Co-Authors: Armen Hakhverdian, Loes AalderingAbstract:Despite decades of scholarly inquiry, the debate on the existence of a Bandwagon Effect in politics remains undecided. This article aims to overcome the limitations of previous experimental and survey research. We test to what extent success in real-life polling outcomes of the previous weeks influences subsequent vote intentions. To this end, we designed a large-scale survey experiment among a diverse cross-section of the Dutch electorate (N 23,421). We find that simple polling outcomes by themselves do not affect subsequent vote intentions. We do find evidence for a subtle but relevant Bandwagon Effect: An emphasis on growth in the opinion polls stimulates subsequent support. However, there is no evidence that the Bandwagon Effect is more apparent among people who were on the fence. Is there such a thing as a Bandwagon vote? Do ‘‘pre-election polls tend to handicap the losing side by influencing doubtful voters to vote for the winning candidate’ ’ (Gallup & Rae, 1940, p. 244)? As early as 1940, George Gallup and Saul Forbes Rae argued that there are two main problems in the way the Bandwagon Effect had been tested comprehensively. First, experimental studies frequently study college students in nonrealistic situations with nonexisting candidates. Second, because the determinants of public opinion shifts are complex and interdependent, the causal mechanisms are hard to pull apart (Gallup & Rae, 1940, pp. 248–249). A more convincing test of the Bandwagon All correspondence regarding this article should be addressed to Tom van der Meer, Department o
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Off the Fence, onto the Bandwagon? A Large-Scale Survey Experiment on Effect of Real-Life Poll Outcomes on Subsequent Vote Intentions
International Journal of Public Opinion Research, 2015Co-Authors: Tom Van Der Meer, Armen Hakhverdian, Loes AalderingAbstract:Despite decades of scholarly inquiry, the debate on the existence of a Bandwagon Effect in politics remains undecided. This article aims to overcome the limitations of previous experimental and survey research. We test to what extent success in real-life polling outcomes of the previous weeks influences subsequent vote intentions. To this end, we designed a large-scale survey experiment among a diverse cross-section of the Dutch electorate (N = 23,421). We find that simple polling outcomes by themselves do not affect subsequent vote intentions. We do find evidence for a subtle but relevant Bandwagon Effect: An emphasis on growth in the opinion polls stimulates subsequent support. However, there is no evidence that the Bandwagon Effect is more apparent among people who were on the fence.
Gábor Simonovits - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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Identifying the Bandwagon Effect in two-round elections
Public Choice, 2014Co-Authors: Áron Kiss, Gábor SimonovitsAbstract:We propose a new method to test for the existence of the Bandwagon Effect, the notion that voters are more likely to vote for a given candidate if they expect the candidate to win. Two-round election systems with a large number of single-member districts offer an ideal testing ground because results from the first round provide a better benchmark for voter expectations than any possible alternative measure. Using data from the 2002 and 2006 general elections in Hungary, we find that the lead of a candidate in the first round is magnified by about 10 percent in the second round, controlling for country-wide swings of the electorate between the two rounds and for the behavior of voters of smaller parties. A separate exercise suggests that at least part of the Effect is caused by the lower probability of individuals voting in the second round if their preferred candidate is likely to lose by a large margin.
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Identifying the Bandwagon Effect in two-round elections
Public Choice, 2013Co-Authors: Áron Kiss, Gábor SimonovitsAbstract:We propose a new method to test for the existence of the Bandwagon Effect, the notion that voters are more likely to vote for a given candidate if they expect the candidate to win. Two-round election systems with a large number of single-member districts offer an ideal testing ground because results from the first round provide a better benchmark for voter expectations than any possible alternative measure. Using data from the 2002 and 2006 general elections in Hungary, we find that the lead of a candidate in the first round is magnified by about 10 percent in the second round, controlling for country-wide swings of the electorate between the two rounds and for the behavior of voters of smaller parties. A separate exercise suggests that at least part of the Effect is caused by the lower probability of individuals voting in the second round if their preferred candidate is likely to lose by a large margin. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media New York 2014
Tom Van Der Meer - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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Off the Fence, onto the Bandwagon? A Large-Scale Survey Experiment on Effect of Real-Life Poll Outcomes on Subsequent Vote Intentions
International Journal of Public Opinion Research, 2015Co-Authors: Tom Van Der Meer, Armen Hakhverdian, Loes AalderingAbstract:Despite decades of scholarly inquiry, the debate on the existence of a Bandwagon Effect in politics remains undecided. This article aims to overcome the limitations of previous experimental and survey research. We test to what extent success in real-life polling outcomes of the previous weeks influences subsequent vote intentions. To this end, we designed a large-scale survey experiment among a diverse cross-section of the Dutch electorate (N = 23,421). We find that simple polling outcomes by themselves do not affect subsequent vote intentions. We do find evidence for a subtle but relevant Bandwagon Effect: An emphasis on growth in the opinion polls stimulates subsequent support. However, there is no evidence that the Bandwagon Effect is more apparent among people who were on the fence.
Armen Hakhverdian - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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Off the Fence, onto the Bandwagon? A Large-Scale Survey Experiment on Effect of Real-Life Poll Outcomes on Subsequent Vote Intentions
2016Co-Authors: Armen Hakhverdian, Loes AalderingAbstract:Despite decades of scholarly inquiry, the debate on the existence of a Bandwagon Effect in politics remains undecided. This article aims to overcome the limitations of previous experimental and survey research. We test to what extent success in real-life polling outcomes of the previous weeks influences subsequent vote intentions. To this end, we designed a large-scale survey experiment among a diverse cross-section of the Dutch electorate (N 23,421). We find that simple polling outcomes by themselves do not affect subsequent vote intentions. We do find evidence for a subtle but relevant Bandwagon Effect: An emphasis on growth in the opinion polls stimulates subsequent support. However, there is no evidence that the Bandwagon Effect is more apparent among people who were on the fence. Is there such a thing as a Bandwagon vote? Do ‘‘pre-election polls tend to handicap the losing side by influencing doubtful voters to vote for the winning candidate’ ’ (Gallup & Rae, 1940, p. 244)? As early as 1940, George Gallup and Saul Forbes Rae argued that there are two main problems in the way the Bandwagon Effect had been tested comprehensively. First, experimental studies frequently study college students in nonrealistic situations with nonexisting candidates. Second, because the determinants of public opinion shifts are complex and interdependent, the causal mechanisms are hard to pull apart (Gallup & Rae, 1940, pp. 248–249). A more convincing test of the Bandwagon All correspondence regarding this article should be addressed to Tom van der Meer, Department o
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Off the Fence, onto the Bandwagon? A Large-Scale Survey Experiment on Effect of Real-Life Poll Outcomes on Subsequent Vote Intentions
International Journal of Public Opinion Research, 2015Co-Authors: Tom Van Der Meer, Armen Hakhverdian, Loes AalderingAbstract:Despite decades of scholarly inquiry, the debate on the existence of a Bandwagon Effect in politics remains undecided. This article aims to overcome the limitations of previous experimental and survey research. We test to what extent success in real-life polling outcomes of the previous weeks influences subsequent vote intentions. To this end, we designed a large-scale survey experiment among a diverse cross-section of the Dutch electorate (N = 23,421). We find that simple polling outcomes by themselves do not affect subsequent vote intentions. We do find evidence for a subtle but relevant Bandwagon Effect: An emphasis on growth in the opinion polls stimulates subsequent support. However, there is no evidence that the Bandwagon Effect is more apparent among people who were on the fence.
Áron Kiss - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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Identifying the Bandwagon Effect in two-round elections
Public Choice, 2014Co-Authors: Áron Kiss, Gábor SimonovitsAbstract:We propose a new method to test for the existence of the Bandwagon Effect, the notion that voters are more likely to vote for a given candidate if they expect the candidate to win. Two-round election systems with a large number of single-member districts offer an ideal testing ground because results from the first round provide a better benchmark for voter expectations than any possible alternative measure. Using data from the 2002 and 2006 general elections in Hungary, we find that the lead of a candidate in the first round is magnified by about 10 percent in the second round, controlling for country-wide swings of the electorate between the two rounds and for the behavior of voters of smaller parties. A separate exercise suggests that at least part of the Effect is caused by the lower probability of individuals voting in the second round if their preferred candidate is likely to lose by a large margin.
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Identifying the Bandwagon Effect in two-round elections
Public Choice, 2013Co-Authors: Áron Kiss, Gábor SimonovitsAbstract:We propose a new method to test for the existence of the Bandwagon Effect, the notion that voters are more likely to vote for a given candidate if they expect the candidate to win. Two-round election systems with a large number of single-member districts offer an ideal testing ground because results from the first round provide a better benchmark for voter expectations than any possible alternative measure. Using data from the 2002 and 2006 general elections in Hungary, we find that the lead of a candidate in the first round is magnified by about 10 percent in the second round, controlling for country-wide swings of the electorate between the two rounds and for the behavior of voters of smaller parties. A separate exercise suggests that at least part of the Effect is caused by the lower probability of individuals voting in the second round if their preferred candidate is likely to lose by a large margin. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media New York 2014
