The Experts below are selected from a list of 26433 Experts worldwide ranked by ideXlab platform
Richard J. Cebula - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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impact of the federal Budget Deficit on the nominal interest rate yield on new 30 year fixed rate home mortgages recent evidence
Journal of Housing Research, 2009Co-Authors: Richard J. CebulaAbstract:This study provides recent evidence on the impact of the Budget Deficit on the nominal interest rate yield on new 30-year fixed-rate home mortgages. Using quarterly data for the period 1974.1–2007....
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impact of the primary Budget Deficit on the nominal long term interest rate yield on tax free municipal bonds
MPRA Paper, 2005Co-Authors: Richard J. Cebula, Richard Mcgrath, Michael TomaAbstract:This study empirically investigates the impact of the federal Budget Deficit on the nominal interest rate yield on high grade long term tax free municipal bonds. Within a system that includes income tax rates, international capital flows, and the primary Budget Deficit, which excludes net interest payments by the Treasury, co-integration and error-correction model estimation leads to the conclusion that the primary Budget Deficit acted to raise this interest rate yield over the 1973-1996 study period but that the causality was not bi-directional.
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recent empirical evidence on the impact of the primary Budget Deficit on nominal longer term treasury note interest rate yields
Global Business and Economics Review, 2005Co-Authors: Richard J. CebulaAbstract:This study empirically investigates the impact of the federal Budget Deficit on the nominal interest rate yields on seven and ten year treasury notes over the 1992–2003 period. To measure the Budget Deficit, the primary Budget Deficit, which excludes net interest payments by the treasury, is adopted. In a loanable funds model that includes the monetary base, expected inflation, an ex ante real short term interest rate yield and an ex ante real intermediate term interest rate yield, the percentage growth rate of real GDP, and the percentage growth rate of the S&P 500 stock index, instrumental variables estimations using quarterly data reveal that the primary Deficit has raised the nominal interest rate yields on both seven year and ten year treasury notes over the study period, raising serious concerns about the currently surging national debt.
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an empirical note on the impact of the federal Budget Deficit on ex ante real long term interest rates 1973 1995
MPRA Paper, 1996Co-Authors: Richard J. CebulaAbstract:This study investigates the impact of the U.S. federal Budget Deficit on ex ante real long-term interest rates in the U.S. using quarterly data for the period from 1973 through 1995. The study adopts a loanable funds model. Two stage least squares estimates reveal that the federal Budget Deficit acted to elevate the ex ante real long term interest rate on ten year U.S. Treasury notes, Moody's Aaa-rated corporate bonds, and Moody's Baa-rated corporate bonds.
Ali F. Darrat - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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On the U.S. Budget Deficit Dilemma: Has Television Contributed?
The American Economist, 1996Co-Authors: Ali F. Darrat, Bill P. BowersAbstract:We advance several theoretical reasons for arguing that expansion in television viewership may have contributed to the recent escalation in the U.S. Budget Deficit. We then develop a multivariate model to test the validity of the hypothesis using alternative measures of television viewership. The empirical results could not reject our contention that the fast evolution of the U.S. television viewership since the early 1970s has significantly contributed to the escalating size of the federal Budget Deficit over and above the effects of several other possible macro determinants. This evidence provides some support to the claim that there exists a “liberal” bias within the media (particularly television) that undermines fiscal conservatism. Therefore, it appears advisable for policy-makers to take into account the role of television if they aspire to understand and ultimately control the mounting federal Budget Deficit.
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stock market efficiency and the federal Budget Deficit another anomaly
The Financial Review, 1994Co-Authors: Ali F. Darrat, Joe BrocatoAbstract:This paper investigates the efficiency of the U.S. stock market as it pertains to a number of major macrofinance variables that theory and empirical evidence suggest are important in rational stock pricing decisions. A multivariate vector autoregressive analysis is used to draw efficiency inferences. The estimated factor pricings are consistent with theory and previous empirical research. In addition, these results indicate that the stock market may be inefficient with respect to the federal Budget Deficit variable. Similar apparent inefficiency evidence is obtained for the term structure and risk premium variables. The authors cannot reject the efficiency hypothesis for industrial production, inflation, and base money. Using indirect causality tests, the authors find plausible intermediate information linkages connecting variables in the system. The term structure and risk premia variables consistently appear important as intermediate conduits through which information about other factors impact stock returns.
Michel Normandin - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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Budget Deficit persistence and the twin Deficits hypothesis
Journal of International Economics, 1999Co-Authors: Michel NormandinAbstract:Abstract This paper gauges the twin Deficits hypothesis, i.e. a positive causal relationship between the external and Budget Deficits. This relationship is measured by the responses of the external Deficit to changes in the Budget Deficit induced by Blanchard's model. These responses are positively affected by the birth rate and by the degree of persistence of the Budget Deficit. Empirical results for the Canadian and US economies reveal that, although the relevant birth rates are small, the great persistence of the Budget Deficits yields responses that are numerically large and statistically positive. This contrasts with previous tests of the twin Deficits hypothesis, which have never formally taken into account the stochastic properties of the Budget Deficit.
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Budget Deficit Persistence and the Twin Deficits Hypothesis
1996Co-Authors: Michel NormandinAbstract:This paper gauges the causal relationship between external and Budget Deficits by using Blanchard's overlapping generations model. This model tests the twin Deficits hypothesis (i.e., there is a positive relationship between the Deficits) and the Ricardian equivalence hypothesis (i.e., there is no link between the Deficits). This model also implies that consumers forecast future Budget Deficits using (at least) the history of the two Deficits. This implication is used to derive time series restrictions, which are testable for given consumers' planning horizons. For the relevant horizon, the response of the external Deficit to an increase in the Budget Deficit is computed. For the Canadian and the U.S. economies, the relevant horizons can be as long as 83 years. However, given the persistence of the Budget Deficits, these horizons produce responses that are statistically significant. These findings reconcile the mixed results obtained in previous analyses.
Kivilcim Metin Özcan - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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The Relationship between Inflation and the Budget Deficit in Turkey
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 1998Co-Authors: Kivilcim Metin ÖzcanAbstract:This article analyzes the empirical relationship between inflation and the Budget Deficit for the Turkish economy by a multivariate cointegration analysis. A single-equation model shows that the scaled Budget Deficit (as well as income growth and debt monetization) significantly affects inflation in Turkey. The conditional model of inflation is constant and it encompasses a previously estimated model.
Dinh Thi Thu Hong - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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the impact of oil price on the growth inflation unemployment and Budget Deficit of vietnam
International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 2017Co-Authors: Nguyen Thi Ngoc Trang, Tran Ngoc Tho, Dinh Thi Thu HongAbstract:In oil exporting countries, especially OPEC members, oil price fluctuation has significant impacts on their economies. Herein, just a drop in the oil price causes directly many adverse effects, such as inflation, falls in economic growth, and increases in unemployment. However with a country which not only exports crude oil but also imports petroleum as Vietnam, it is not easy to determine falling or a rising oil prices is beneficial to the economy. Therefore, this paper aims to carry out a numerical analysis on the influences of oil prices on the macroeconomic variables of Vietnam, including inflation, growth rate, Budget Deficit and unemployment, during a period from 2000 to 2015. By using a vector auto regression (VAR) model, it is realized that a rise in oil prices would lead to higher inflation and Budget Deficit in Vietnam while its impacts on the GDP growth and unemployment are unclear.
