The Experts below are selected from a list of 49104 Experts worldwide ranked by ideXlab platform
Xiaoji Zhou - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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for Economic Forecast the role of knowledge system of hwmse
Systems Man and Cybernetics, 2008Co-Authors: Xiaoji ZhouAbstract:Hall for Workshop of Meta-synthetic Engineering (HWMSE) aims to organically combine the human expert systems, machine systems and knowledge systems so as to realize meta-synthesis approach (proposed by a Chinese system scientist Qian, Xuesen) for complex system problem solving. The process of this approach is abstracted as meta-synthesis from qualitative hypothesis to quantitative validation consists iterative phases of qualitative synthesis and qualitative-quantitative synthesis. A project for Economic system policy making in the early 1980s by BIIC is regarded as an important practical background for the formation of meta-synthesis approach. Thereafter continuous studies on meta-synthesis approach for Economic Forecast and policy making has been carried out. In this paper, we discuss the working pattern of HWMSE first, and then discuss object knowledge system construction and utilization, and meta-synthetic process for Economic Forecast and policy-making in HWMSE.
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SMC - For Economic Forecast: The role of knowledge system of HWMSE
2008 IEEE International Conference on Systems Man and Cybernetics, 2008Co-Authors: Xiaoji ZhouAbstract:Hall for Workshop of Meta-synthetic Engineering (HWMSE) aims to organically combine the human expert systems, machine systems and knowledge systems so as to realize meta-synthesis approach (proposed by a Chinese system scientist Qian, Xuesen) for complex system problem solving. The process of this approach is abstracted as meta-synthesis from qualitative hypothesis to quantitative validation consists iterative phases of qualitative synthesis and qualitative-quantitative synthesis. A project for Economic system policy making in the early 1980s by BIIC is regarded as an important practical background for the formation of meta-synthesis approach. Thereafter continuous studies on meta-synthesis approach for Economic Forecast and policy making has been carried out. In this paper, we discuss the working pattern of HWMSE first, and then discuss object knowledge system construction and utilization, and meta-synthetic process for Economic Forecast and policy-making in HWMSE.
Zhang Jie - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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Grey-Least Square Method-Markov Chain Algorithm for Forecasting
Journal of Wuhan University of Technology, 2008Co-Authors: Zhang JieAbstract:Scientific Forecast is of great importance to the Economic phenomenon research and decision-making.Therefore,the research on Economic Forecast theory and method has always been a hot topic.The grey model,least square method and markov chains for Forecasting were combined,and the approaches for Forecast improvement of the least square method were proposed.Aiming at the tendency of the gross amount of energy sources consumption of our country, a conclusion was reached that the new algorithm is more accurate than the grey model.It proves that the grey-least square method-markov chain algorithm is a good one which can be helpful for policy makers in making Economic decision.
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Application and Research on Improved Grey -topological Algorithm for Forecasting
Journal of Yangtze University, 2007Co-Authors: Zhang JieAbstract:Scientific Forecast was of great importance to the Economic phenomenon research and Economic decision-making. Therefore,the research on Economic Forecast theory and method was always a focus topic.By combining the grey model,least square method,and topological model,an improved grey algorithm for Forecasting was proposed.Using this new algorithm,the paper Forecasts the tendency of average energy sources consumption per person in our country and draws the conclusions that the new algorithm is more accurate.It is proved the new algorithm is more accurate.
Mian-yun Chen - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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FSKD (3) - Improved Grey-Topology Algorithm for Forecasting
2009 Sixth International Conference on Fuzzy Systems and Knowledge Discovery, 2009Co-Authors: Qing-quan Dai, Ye-xin Song, Mian-yun ChenAbstract:Scientific Forecast is of great importance to the Economic phenomenon research and Economic decision-making. Therefore, the research about Economic Forecast theory and method is always a hot topic. This paper proposed an algorithm combined with the grey model, least square method and topology model, which can be a new advanced algorithm for Forecasting. Using this new algorithm, the paper Forecasts the tendency of average energy consumption per person of our country and then come to the conclusion that the new algorithm is more accurate. It proves that the new algorithm is a good one and can be used by authorities to make strategy decision for economy.
Richard Wahlund - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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The SSE Alumni Economic Forecast Spring 2010: SSE Alumni's Expectations about Economic Developments
2010Co-Authors: Richard WahlundAbstract:As society changes and patterns of Economic development – across regions, countries, markets, companies and other organizations – become more complex and intricate, there is a general wish for reliable and valid indicators of what is going on and where Economic development is heading. This study represents a first step toward developing new indicators - Forecasts - of Economic developments, focusing on expectations among the alumni of the Stockholm School of Economics about the next six months, to be surveyed once a year. The study also aims at explaining how these expectations are formed – what influence the expectations. The expectations are also of interest in their own right, since they show how a specific group of professionals, of which many are rather influential in Swedish businesses and in the society, view the future, which influences their decisions, and which may – after being made known – influence other decision makers.
Emna Trabelsi - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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Central Bank Transparency and the consensus Forecast: What does The Economist poll of Forecasters tell us?
Research in International Business and Finance, 2016Co-Authors: Emna TrabelsiAbstract:We are interested, in this paper, in studying the effects that central banks exert on private sector Forecasts by means of their transparency and communication measures. We analyze the impact of central bank transparency on the accuracy of the consensus Forecasts (usually calculated as the mean or the median of the Forecasts from a panel of individual Forecasters) for a series of macroEconomic variables: inflation, Real output growth and the current account as a share of GDP for 7 advanced economies. Interestingly, while it is found of significance of central bank transparency and communication measures on Forecasts themselves, there appear some limits of the same measures when we study their impact on Forecast errors. Our findings, indeed, suggest that deviations of the Economic Forecast data from the realized ones (RGDP and the current account as a share of GDP) are a bit affected by the central bank transparency measures considered in the paper. Inflation Forecast errors, especially, are not affected at all by those measures. A possible explanation (among others) could be attributed to the inefficiency of the mean Forecasts. Inefficiency of the consensus Forecasts is not a new issue from a theoretical point of view, but its empirical relevance is for the first time (to our knowledge) questioned on data extracted from the Economist poll of Forecasters. More particularly, our paper extracts practical implications over the effectiveness of transparent announcements in Forecast formation process. We rely on two noisy information models, though having different mechanisms (Kim et al, 2001; Morris and Shin, 2002) both of which are consistent with overweighting issue to explain the inefficiency of the consensus Forecast.
