The Experts below are selected from a list of 51306 Experts worldwide ranked by ideXlab platform
Pete Smith - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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sustainable Energy Crop production
Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, 2014Co-Authors: Stephen J Del Grosso, Pete Smith, Astley Hastings, Marcelo Valadares Galdos, William J PartonAbstract:Biofuels currently supply a small portion of the world's Energy needs but this is increasing due to mandates intended to reduce use of fossil fuels and the associated environmental impacts. However, the potentials of plant based feedstocks to substitute for fossil fuels and mitigate environmental impacts are uncertain. Much of the uncertainty is related to the quantification of nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions from feedstock production and the extent to which use of grain and biomass for biofuel feedstocks leads to land use conversion for compensatory Cropping (indirect land use change). Current consensus is that sugar cane, perennial cellulosic Crops, and waste biomass provide clear benefits while corn ethanol and oil seed Crops may provide benefits if indirect land use change is assumed to be negligible and if recommended Crop management practices, such as use of enhanced efficiency fertilizers and minimal tillage, are employed. Future research should better quantify N2O emissions from different feedstocks grown in different regions, the ability of best management practices to mitigate these emissions, and the potential for marginal lands and increased Crop yields to supply biomass.
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estimating uk perennial Energy Crop supply using farm scale models with spatially disaggregated data
Gcb Bioenergy, 2014Co-Authors: Peter Alexander, Dominic Moran, Pete Smith, Astley Hastings, Shifeng Wang, Gilla Sunnenberg, Andrew A Lovett, Matthew J Tallis, Eric Casella, Gail TaylorAbstract:To achieve the UK Government's aim of expansion in the growth of perennial Energy Crops requires farmers to select these Crops in preference to conventional rotations. Existing studies estimating the total potential resource have either only simplistically considered the farmer decision-making and opportunity costs, for example using an estimate of annual land rental charge; or have not considered spatial variability, for example using representative farm types. This paper attempts to apply a farm-scale modelling approach with spatially specific data to improve understanding of potential perennial Energy Crop supply. The model main inputs are yield maps for the perennial Energy Crops, Miscanthus and willow grown as short-rotation coppice (SRC), and regional yields for conventional Crops. These are used to configure location specific farm-scale models, which optimize for profit maximization with risk aversion. Areas that are unsuitable or unavailable for Energy Crops, due to environmental or social factors, are constrained from selection. The results are maps of economic supply, assuming a homogenous farm-gate price, allowing supply cost curves for the UK market to be derived. The results show a high degree of regional variation in supply, with different patterns for each Energy Crop. Using estimates of yields under climate change scenarios suggests that Miscanthus supply may increase under future climates while the opposite effect is suggested for SRC willow. The results suggest that SRC willow is only likely to able to supply a small proportion of the anticipated perennial Energy Crop target, without increases in market prices. Miscanthus appears to have greater scope for supply, and its dominance may be amplified over time by the effects of climate change. Finally, the relationship to the demand side of the market is discussed, and work is proposed to investigate the factors impacting how the market as a whole may develop.
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estimating uk perennial Energy Crop supply using farm scale models with spatially disaggregated data
Gcb Bioenergy, 2014Co-Authors: Peter Alexander, Dominic Moran, Pete Smith, Astley Hastings, Shifeng Wang, Gilla Sunnenberg, Andrew A Lovett, Matthew J Tallis, Eric Casella, Gail TaylorAbstract:To achieve the UK Government's aim of expansion in the growth of perennial Energy Crops requires farmers to select these Crops in preference to conventional rotations. Existing studies estimating the total potential resource have either only simplistically considered the farmer decision-making and opportunity costs, for example using an estimate of annual land rental charge; or have not considered spatial variability, for example using representative farm types. This paper attempts to apply a farm-scale modelling approach with spatially specific data to improve understanding of potential perennial Energy Crop supply. The model main inputs are yield maps for the perennial Energy Crops, Miscanthus and willow grown as short-rotation coppice (SRC), and regional yields for conventional Crops. These are used to configure location specific farm-scale models, which optimize for profit maximization with risk aversion. Areas that are unsuitable or unavailable for Energy Crops, due to environmental or social factors, are constrained from selection. The results are maps of economic supply, assuming a homogenous farm-gate price, allowing supply cost curves for the UK market to be derived. The results show a high degree of regional variation in supply, with different patterns for each Energy Crop. Using estimates of yields under climate change scenarios suggests that Miscanthus supply may increase under future climates while the opposite effect is suggested for SRC willow. The results suggest that SRC willow is only likely to able to supply a small proportion of the anticipated perennial Energy Crop target, without increases in market prices. Miscanthus appears to have greater scope for supply, and its dominance may be amplified over time by the effects of climate change. Finally, the relationship to the demand side of the market is discussed, and work is proposed to investigate the factors impacting how the market as a whole may develop.
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cost and potential of carbon abatement from the uk perennial Energy Crop market
Gcb Bioenergy, 2014Co-Authors: Peter Alexander, Dominic Moran, Mark Rounsevell, Jonathan Hillier, Pete SmithAbstract:Biomass produced from perennial Energy Crops is expected to contribute to UK renewable Energy targets, reducing the carbon intensity of Energy production. The UK government has had incentive policies in place targeting both farmers and power plant investors to develop this market, but growth has been slower than anticipated. Market expansion requires the interaction of farmers growing these Crops, with the construction of biomass power plants or other facilities to consume them. This study uses an agent-based model to investigate behaviour of the UK Energy Crop market and examines the cost of emission abatement that the market might provide. The model is run for various policy scenarios attempting to answer the following questions: Do existing policies for perennial Energy Crops provide a cost-effective mechanism in stimulating the market to achieve emissions abatement? What are the relative benefits of providing incentives to farmers or Energy producers? What are the trade-offs between increased or decreased subsidy levels and the rate and level of market uptake, and hence carbon abatement? The results suggest that maintaining the Energy Crop scheme, which provides farmers' establishment grants, can increase both the emissions abatement potential and cost-effectiveness. A minimum carbon equivalent abatement cost is seen at intermediate subsidy levels for Energy generation. This suggests that there is an optimum level that cost-effectively stimulates the market to achieve emissions reduction.
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Modelling the perennial Energy Crop market: the role of spatial diffusion.
Journal of the Royal Society Interface, 2013Co-Authors: Peter Alexander, Dominic Moran, Mark Rounsevell, Pete SmithAbstract:Biomass produced from Energy Crops, such as Miscanthus and short rotation coppice is expected to contribute to renewable Energy targets, but the slower than anticipated development of the UK market implies the need for greater understanding of the factors that govern adoption. Here, we apply an agent-based model of the UK perennial Energy Crop market, including the contingent interaction of supply and demand, to understand the spatial and temporal dynamics of Energy Crop adoption. Results indicate that perennial Energy Crop supply will be between six and nine times lower than previously published, because of time lags in adoption arising from a spatial diffusion process. The model simulates time lags of at least 20 years, which is supported empirically by the analogue of oilseed rape adoption in the UK from the 1970s. This implies the need to account for time lags arising from spatial diffusion in evaluating land-use change, climate change (mitigation or adaptation) or the adoption of novel technologies.
Peter Alexander - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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estimating uk perennial Energy Crop supply using farm scale models with spatially disaggregated data
Gcb Bioenergy, 2014Co-Authors: Peter Alexander, Dominic Moran, Pete Smith, Astley Hastings, Shifeng Wang, Gilla Sunnenberg, Andrew A Lovett, Matthew J Tallis, Eric Casella, Gail TaylorAbstract:To achieve the UK Government's aim of expansion in the growth of perennial Energy Crops requires farmers to select these Crops in preference to conventional rotations. Existing studies estimating the total potential resource have either only simplistically considered the farmer decision-making and opportunity costs, for example using an estimate of annual land rental charge; or have not considered spatial variability, for example using representative farm types. This paper attempts to apply a farm-scale modelling approach with spatially specific data to improve understanding of potential perennial Energy Crop supply. The model main inputs are yield maps for the perennial Energy Crops, Miscanthus and willow grown as short-rotation coppice (SRC), and regional yields for conventional Crops. These are used to configure location specific farm-scale models, which optimize for profit maximization with risk aversion. Areas that are unsuitable or unavailable for Energy Crops, due to environmental or social factors, are constrained from selection. The results are maps of economic supply, assuming a homogenous farm-gate price, allowing supply cost curves for the UK market to be derived. The results show a high degree of regional variation in supply, with different patterns for each Energy Crop. Using estimates of yields under climate change scenarios suggests that Miscanthus supply may increase under future climates while the opposite effect is suggested for SRC willow. The results suggest that SRC willow is only likely to able to supply a small proportion of the anticipated perennial Energy Crop target, without increases in market prices. Miscanthus appears to have greater scope for supply, and its dominance may be amplified over time by the effects of climate change. Finally, the relationship to the demand side of the market is discussed, and work is proposed to investigate the factors impacting how the market as a whole may develop.
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estimating uk perennial Energy Crop supply using farm scale models with spatially disaggregated data
Gcb Bioenergy, 2014Co-Authors: Peter Alexander, Dominic Moran, Pete Smith, Astley Hastings, Shifeng Wang, Gilla Sunnenberg, Andrew A Lovett, Matthew J Tallis, Eric Casella, Gail TaylorAbstract:To achieve the UK Government's aim of expansion in the growth of perennial Energy Crops requires farmers to select these Crops in preference to conventional rotations. Existing studies estimating the total potential resource have either only simplistically considered the farmer decision-making and opportunity costs, for example using an estimate of annual land rental charge; or have not considered spatial variability, for example using representative farm types. This paper attempts to apply a farm-scale modelling approach with spatially specific data to improve understanding of potential perennial Energy Crop supply. The model main inputs are yield maps for the perennial Energy Crops, Miscanthus and willow grown as short-rotation coppice (SRC), and regional yields for conventional Crops. These are used to configure location specific farm-scale models, which optimize for profit maximization with risk aversion. Areas that are unsuitable or unavailable for Energy Crops, due to environmental or social factors, are constrained from selection. The results are maps of economic supply, assuming a homogenous farm-gate price, allowing supply cost curves for the UK market to be derived. The results show a high degree of regional variation in supply, with different patterns for each Energy Crop. Using estimates of yields under climate change scenarios suggests that Miscanthus supply may increase under future climates while the opposite effect is suggested for SRC willow. The results suggest that SRC willow is only likely to able to supply a small proportion of the anticipated perennial Energy Crop target, without increases in market prices. Miscanthus appears to have greater scope for supply, and its dominance may be amplified over time by the effects of climate change. Finally, the relationship to the demand side of the market is discussed, and work is proposed to investigate the factors impacting how the market as a whole may develop.
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cost and potential of carbon abatement from the uk perennial Energy Crop market
Gcb Bioenergy, 2014Co-Authors: Peter Alexander, Dominic Moran, Mark Rounsevell, Jonathan Hillier, Pete SmithAbstract:Biomass produced from perennial Energy Crops is expected to contribute to UK renewable Energy targets, reducing the carbon intensity of Energy production. The UK government has had incentive policies in place targeting both farmers and power plant investors to develop this market, but growth has been slower than anticipated. Market expansion requires the interaction of farmers growing these Crops, with the construction of biomass power plants or other facilities to consume them. This study uses an agent-based model to investigate behaviour of the UK Energy Crop market and examines the cost of emission abatement that the market might provide. The model is run for various policy scenarios attempting to answer the following questions: Do existing policies for perennial Energy Crops provide a cost-effective mechanism in stimulating the market to achieve emissions abatement? What are the relative benefits of providing incentives to farmers or Energy producers? What are the trade-offs between increased or decreased subsidy levels and the rate and level of market uptake, and hence carbon abatement? The results suggest that maintaining the Energy Crop scheme, which provides farmers' establishment grants, can increase both the emissions abatement potential and cost-effectiveness. A minimum carbon equivalent abatement cost is seen at intermediate subsidy levels for Energy generation. This suggests that there is an optimum level that cost-effectively stimulates the market to achieve emissions reduction.
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Modelling the perennial Energy Crop market: the role of spatial diffusion.
Journal of the Royal Society Interface, 2013Co-Authors: Peter Alexander, Dominic Moran, Mark Rounsevell, Pete SmithAbstract:Biomass produced from Energy Crops, such as Miscanthus and short rotation coppice is expected to contribute to renewable Energy targets, but the slower than anticipated development of the UK market implies the need for greater understanding of the factors that govern adoption. Here, we apply an agent-based model of the UK perennial Energy Crop market, including the contingent interaction of supply and demand, to understand the spatial and temporal dynamics of Energy Crop adoption. Results indicate that perennial Energy Crop supply will be between six and nine times lower than previously published, because of time lags in adoption arising from a spatial diffusion process. The model simulates time lags of at least 20 years, which is supported empirically by the analogue of oilseed rape adoption in the UK from the 1970s. This implies the need to account for time lags arising from spatial diffusion in evaluating land-use change, climate change (mitigation or adaptation) or the adoption of novel technologies.
Dominic Moran - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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estimating uk perennial Energy Crop supply using farm scale models with spatially disaggregated data
Gcb Bioenergy, 2014Co-Authors: Peter Alexander, Dominic Moran, Pete Smith, Astley Hastings, Shifeng Wang, Gilla Sunnenberg, Andrew A Lovett, Matthew J Tallis, Eric Casella, Gail TaylorAbstract:To achieve the UK Government's aim of expansion in the growth of perennial Energy Crops requires farmers to select these Crops in preference to conventional rotations. Existing studies estimating the total potential resource have either only simplistically considered the farmer decision-making and opportunity costs, for example using an estimate of annual land rental charge; or have not considered spatial variability, for example using representative farm types. This paper attempts to apply a farm-scale modelling approach with spatially specific data to improve understanding of potential perennial Energy Crop supply. The model main inputs are yield maps for the perennial Energy Crops, Miscanthus and willow grown as short-rotation coppice (SRC), and regional yields for conventional Crops. These are used to configure location specific farm-scale models, which optimize for profit maximization with risk aversion. Areas that are unsuitable or unavailable for Energy Crops, due to environmental or social factors, are constrained from selection. The results are maps of economic supply, assuming a homogenous farm-gate price, allowing supply cost curves for the UK market to be derived. The results show a high degree of regional variation in supply, with different patterns for each Energy Crop. Using estimates of yields under climate change scenarios suggests that Miscanthus supply may increase under future climates while the opposite effect is suggested for SRC willow. The results suggest that SRC willow is only likely to able to supply a small proportion of the anticipated perennial Energy Crop target, without increases in market prices. Miscanthus appears to have greater scope for supply, and its dominance may be amplified over time by the effects of climate change. Finally, the relationship to the demand side of the market is discussed, and work is proposed to investigate the factors impacting how the market as a whole may develop.
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estimating uk perennial Energy Crop supply using farm scale models with spatially disaggregated data
Gcb Bioenergy, 2014Co-Authors: Peter Alexander, Dominic Moran, Pete Smith, Astley Hastings, Shifeng Wang, Gilla Sunnenberg, Andrew A Lovett, Matthew J Tallis, Eric Casella, Gail TaylorAbstract:To achieve the UK Government's aim of expansion in the growth of perennial Energy Crops requires farmers to select these Crops in preference to conventional rotations. Existing studies estimating the total potential resource have either only simplistically considered the farmer decision-making and opportunity costs, for example using an estimate of annual land rental charge; or have not considered spatial variability, for example using representative farm types. This paper attempts to apply a farm-scale modelling approach with spatially specific data to improve understanding of potential perennial Energy Crop supply. The model main inputs are yield maps for the perennial Energy Crops, Miscanthus and willow grown as short-rotation coppice (SRC), and regional yields for conventional Crops. These are used to configure location specific farm-scale models, which optimize for profit maximization with risk aversion. Areas that are unsuitable or unavailable for Energy Crops, due to environmental or social factors, are constrained from selection. The results are maps of economic supply, assuming a homogenous farm-gate price, allowing supply cost curves for the UK market to be derived. The results show a high degree of regional variation in supply, with different patterns for each Energy Crop. Using estimates of yields under climate change scenarios suggests that Miscanthus supply may increase under future climates while the opposite effect is suggested for SRC willow. The results suggest that SRC willow is only likely to able to supply a small proportion of the anticipated perennial Energy Crop target, without increases in market prices. Miscanthus appears to have greater scope for supply, and its dominance may be amplified over time by the effects of climate change. Finally, the relationship to the demand side of the market is discussed, and work is proposed to investigate the factors impacting how the market as a whole may develop.
-
cost and potential of carbon abatement from the uk perennial Energy Crop market
Gcb Bioenergy, 2014Co-Authors: Peter Alexander, Dominic Moran, Mark Rounsevell, Jonathan Hillier, Pete SmithAbstract:Biomass produced from perennial Energy Crops is expected to contribute to UK renewable Energy targets, reducing the carbon intensity of Energy production. The UK government has had incentive policies in place targeting both farmers and power plant investors to develop this market, but growth has been slower than anticipated. Market expansion requires the interaction of farmers growing these Crops, with the construction of biomass power plants or other facilities to consume them. This study uses an agent-based model to investigate behaviour of the UK Energy Crop market and examines the cost of emission abatement that the market might provide. The model is run for various policy scenarios attempting to answer the following questions: Do existing policies for perennial Energy Crops provide a cost-effective mechanism in stimulating the market to achieve emissions abatement? What are the relative benefits of providing incentives to farmers or Energy producers? What are the trade-offs between increased or decreased subsidy levels and the rate and level of market uptake, and hence carbon abatement? The results suggest that maintaining the Energy Crop scheme, which provides farmers' establishment grants, can increase both the emissions abatement potential and cost-effectiveness. A minimum carbon equivalent abatement cost is seen at intermediate subsidy levels for Energy generation. This suggests that there is an optimum level that cost-effectively stimulates the market to achieve emissions reduction.
-
Modelling the perennial Energy Crop market: the role of spatial diffusion.
Journal of the Royal Society Interface, 2013Co-Authors: Peter Alexander, Dominic Moran, Mark Rounsevell, Pete SmithAbstract:Biomass produced from Energy Crops, such as Miscanthus and short rotation coppice is expected to contribute to renewable Energy targets, but the slower than anticipated development of the UK market implies the need for greater understanding of the factors that govern adoption. Here, we apply an agent-based model of the UK perennial Energy Crop market, including the contingent interaction of supply and demand, to understand the spatial and temporal dynamics of Energy Crop adoption. Results indicate that perennial Energy Crop supply will be between six and nine times lower than previously published, because of time lags in adoption arising from a spatial diffusion process. The model simulates time lags of at least 20 years, which is supported empirically by the analogue of oilseed rape adoption in the UK from the 1970s. This implies the need to account for time lags arising from spatial diffusion in evaluating land-use change, climate change (mitigation or adaptation) or the adoption of novel technologies.
Gail Taylor - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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estimating uk perennial Energy Crop supply using farm scale models with spatially disaggregated data
Gcb Bioenergy, 2014Co-Authors: Peter Alexander, Dominic Moran, Pete Smith, Astley Hastings, Shifeng Wang, Gilla Sunnenberg, Andrew A Lovett, Matthew J Tallis, Eric Casella, Gail TaylorAbstract:To achieve the UK Government's aim of expansion in the growth of perennial Energy Crops requires farmers to select these Crops in preference to conventional rotations. Existing studies estimating the total potential resource have either only simplistically considered the farmer decision-making and opportunity costs, for example using an estimate of annual land rental charge; or have not considered spatial variability, for example using representative farm types. This paper attempts to apply a farm-scale modelling approach with spatially specific data to improve understanding of potential perennial Energy Crop supply. The model main inputs are yield maps for the perennial Energy Crops, Miscanthus and willow grown as short-rotation coppice (SRC), and regional yields for conventional Crops. These are used to configure location specific farm-scale models, which optimize for profit maximization with risk aversion. Areas that are unsuitable or unavailable for Energy Crops, due to environmental or social factors, are constrained from selection. The results are maps of economic supply, assuming a homogenous farm-gate price, allowing supply cost curves for the UK market to be derived. The results show a high degree of regional variation in supply, with different patterns for each Energy Crop. Using estimates of yields under climate change scenarios suggests that Miscanthus supply may increase under future climates while the opposite effect is suggested for SRC willow. The results suggest that SRC willow is only likely to able to supply a small proportion of the anticipated perennial Energy Crop target, without increases in market prices. Miscanthus appears to have greater scope for supply, and its dominance may be amplified over time by the effects of climate change. Finally, the relationship to the demand side of the market is discussed, and work is proposed to investigate the factors impacting how the market as a whole may develop.
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estimating uk perennial Energy Crop supply using farm scale models with spatially disaggregated data
Gcb Bioenergy, 2014Co-Authors: Peter Alexander, Dominic Moran, Pete Smith, Astley Hastings, Shifeng Wang, Gilla Sunnenberg, Andrew A Lovett, Matthew J Tallis, Eric Casella, Gail TaylorAbstract:To achieve the UK Government's aim of expansion in the growth of perennial Energy Crops requires farmers to select these Crops in preference to conventional rotations. Existing studies estimating the total potential resource have either only simplistically considered the farmer decision-making and opportunity costs, for example using an estimate of annual land rental charge; or have not considered spatial variability, for example using representative farm types. This paper attempts to apply a farm-scale modelling approach with spatially specific data to improve understanding of potential perennial Energy Crop supply. The model main inputs are yield maps for the perennial Energy Crops, Miscanthus and willow grown as short-rotation coppice (SRC), and regional yields for conventional Crops. These are used to configure location specific farm-scale models, which optimize for profit maximization with risk aversion. Areas that are unsuitable or unavailable for Energy Crops, due to environmental or social factors, are constrained from selection. The results are maps of economic supply, assuming a homogenous farm-gate price, allowing supply cost curves for the UK market to be derived. The results show a high degree of regional variation in supply, with different patterns for each Energy Crop. Using estimates of yields under climate change scenarios suggests that Miscanthus supply may increase under future climates while the opposite effect is suggested for SRC willow. The results suggest that SRC willow is only likely to able to supply a small proportion of the anticipated perennial Energy Crop target, without increases in market prices. Miscanthus appears to have greater scope for supply, and its dominance may be amplified over time by the effects of climate change. Finally, the relationship to the demand side of the market is discussed, and work is proposed to investigate the factors impacting how the market as a whole may develop.
Astley Hastings - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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sustainable Energy Crop production
Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, 2014Co-Authors: Stephen J Del Grosso, Pete Smith, Astley Hastings, Marcelo Valadares Galdos, William J PartonAbstract:Biofuels currently supply a small portion of the world's Energy needs but this is increasing due to mandates intended to reduce use of fossil fuels and the associated environmental impacts. However, the potentials of plant based feedstocks to substitute for fossil fuels and mitigate environmental impacts are uncertain. Much of the uncertainty is related to the quantification of nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions from feedstock production and the extent to which use of grain and biomass for biofuel feedstocks leads to land use conversion for compensatory Cropping (indirect land use change). Current consensus is that sugar cane, perennial cellulosic Crops, and waste biomass provide clear benefits while corn ethanol and oil seed Crops may provide benefits if indirect land use change is assumed to be negligible and if recommended Crop management practices, such as use of enhanced efficiency fertilizers and minimal tillage, are employed. Future research should better quantify N2O emissions from different feedstocks grown in different regions, the ability of best management practices to mitigate these emissions, and the potential for marginal lands and increased Crop yields to supply biomass.
-
estimating uk perennial Energy Crop supply using farm scale models with spatially disaggregated data
Gcb Bioenergy, 2014Co-Authors: Peter Alexander, Dominic Moran, Pete Smith, Astley Hastings, Shifeng Wang, Gilla Sunnenberg, Andrew A Lovett, Matthew J Tallis, Eric Casella, Gail TaylorAbstract:To achieve the UK Government's aim of expansion in the growth of perennial Energy Crops requires farmers to select these Crops in preference to conventional rotations. Existing studies estimating the total potential resource have either only simplistically considered the farmer decision-making and opportunity costs, for example using an estimate of annual land rental charge; or have not considered spatial variability, for example using representative farm types. This paper attempts to apply a farm-scale modelling approach with spatially specific data to improve understanding of potential perennial Energy Crop supply. The model main inputs are yield maps for the perennial Energy Crops, Miscanthus and willow grown as short-rotation coppice (SRC), and regional yields for conventional Crops. These are used to configure location specific farm-scale models, which optimize for profit maximization with risk aversion. Areas that are unsuitable or unavailable for Energy Crops, due to environmental or social factors, are constrained from selection. The results are maps of economic supply, assuming a homogenous farm-gate price, allowing supply cost curves for the UK market to be derived. The results show a high degree of regional variation in supply, with different patterns for each Energy Crop. Using estimates of yields under climate change scenarios suggests that Miscanthus supply may increase under future climates while the opposite effect is suggested for SRC willow. The results suggest that SRC willow is only likely to able to supply a small proportion of the anticipated perennial Energy Crop target, without increases in market prices. Miscanthus appears to have greater scope for supply, and its dominance may be amplified over time by the effects of climate change. Finally, the relationship to the demand side of the market is discussed, and work is proposed to investigate the factors impacting how the market as a whole may develop.
-
estimating uk perennial Energy Crop supply using farm scale models with spatially disaggregated data
Gcb Bioenergy, 2014Co-Authors: Peter Alexander, Dominic Moran, Pete Smith, Astley Hastings, Shifeng Wang, Gilla Sunnenberg, Andrew A Lovett, Matthew J Tallis, Eric Casella, Gail TaylorAbstract:To achieve the UK Government's aim of expansion in the growth of perennial Energy Crops requires farmers to select these Crops in preference to conventional rotations. Existing studies estimating the total potential resource have either only simplistically considered the farmer decision-making and opportunity costs, for example using an estimate of annual land rental charge; or have not considered spatial variability, for example using representative farm types. This paper attempts to apply a farm-scale modelling approach with spatially specific data to improve understanding of potential perennial Energy Crop supply. The model main inputs are yield maps for the perennial Energy Crops, Miscanthus and willow grown as short-rotation coppice (SRC), and regional yields for conventional Crops. These are used to configure location specific farm-scale models, which optimize for profit maximization with risk aversion. Areas that are unsuitable or unavailable for Energy Crops, due to environmental or social factors, are constrained from selection. The results are maps of economic supply, assuming a homogenous farm-gate price, allowing supply cost curves for the UK market to be derived. The results show a high degree of regional variation in supply, with different patterns for each Energy Crop. Using estimates of yields under climate change scenarios suggests that Miscanthus supply may increase under future climates while the opposite effect is suggested for SRC willow. The results suggest that SRC willow is only likely to able to supply a small proportion of the anticipated perennial Energy Crop target, without increases in market prices. Miscanthus appears to have greater scope for supply, and its dominance may be amplified over time by the effects of climate change. Finally, the relationship to the demand side of the market is discussed, and work is proposed to investigate the factors impacting how the market as a whole may develop.