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Ramesh Chandra - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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Testing export‐led Growth in South Asia
Journal of Economic Studies, 2005Co-Authors: Ramesh Chandra, Jim LoveAbstract:Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to test the export‐led Growth hypothesis for South Asia, a diverse region consisting of one large country, India, surrounded by a number of medium and small countries such as Pakistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Nepal, Bhutan and Maldives.Design/methodology/approach – To test this, the study employs cointegration and error‐correction modelling, using data from the International Financial Statistics of the IMF.Findings – The study produces fairly mixed results, and does not find any conclusive evidence in favour of export‐led Growth. While India, Maldives and Nepal exhibit export‐led Growth, Bangladesh and Bhutan show the opposite result of Growth‐led exports. In Pakistan and Sri Lanka no causality in either direction was found. The mixed nature of the results is further confirmed by taking a common time period since 1980.Practical implications – South Asia is one of the poorest regions of the world; so success or otherwise of export‐led Growth is of great interest for po...
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Testing Export-Led Growth in India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka using a multivariate framework
The Manchester School, 2004Co-Authors: Jim Love, Ramesh ChandraAbstract:Most time-series studies in the area of Export-Led Growth adopt a bivariate framework and neglect the role of terms of trade. Because the terms of trade have an important bearing on export earnings and income, the underlying models of these studies may have been misspecified. This study is the first to adopt a multivariate framework for South Asia as a region; and by including the terms of trade as an additional variable it tries to correct the misspecification bias of earlier studies. The evidence suggests bidirectional causality between real exports and real income in India, Export-Led Growth in Pakistan and a no-causality result for Sri Lanka.
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Reinvestigating Export-Led Growth in India Using a Multivariate Cointegration Framework
The Journal of Developing Areas, 2003Co-Authors: Ramesh ChandraAbstract:The early work in the area of Export-Led Growth adopted a cross-sectional framework and did not examine the issue of causality between export Growth and income Growth. Subsequently, this was rectified by a number of time-series studies. Since most studies in this field have adopted bivariate models, they may have been misspecified. Following Dhawan and Biswal (1999), this study tests the Export-Led Growth thesis in India in a multivariate framework by taking the terms of trade as an additional variable. Thus it not only corrects the misspecification bias of earlier studies but also overcomes the small sample bias of the Dhawan and Biswal study. It finds that exports, GDP and the terms of trade are cointegrated in India. The causality between income and exports is a long-term phenomenon and runs in both directions. However, the causality from income to exports is stronger than that from exports to income.
Peter M Summers - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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Export-Led Growth in Asia: Long-Run Relationships and Structural Change
Creating an Internationally Competitive Economy, 2001Co-Authors: Peter M SummersAbstract:This chapter presents new evidence in support of the Export-Led Growth hypothesis in a small group of Asian countries and the United States. The evidence comes from an ad hoc model similar to ones used in many empirical investigations of Export-Led Growth, which is really just a plausible specification of a possible cointegrating relationship between output, exports, imports and the terms of trade.
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The engine of Growth or its handmaiden?: A time-series assessment of Export-Led Growth
Empirical Economics, 1996Co-Authors: Raymond Riezman, Charles H. Whiteman, Peter M SummersAbstract:This paper presents an analysis of time-series data for the countries in the Summers-Heston (1991) data set, in an attempt to ascertain the evidence for or against the Export-Led Growth hypothesis. We find that standard methods of detecting Export-Led Growth using Granger causality tests may give misleading results if imports are not included in the system being analysed. For this reason, our main statistical tool is the measure of conditional linear feedback developed by Geweke (1984), which allows us to examine the relationship between export Growth and income Growth while controlling for the Growth of imports. These measures have two additional features which make them attractive for our work. First, they go beyond mere detection of evidence for Export-Led Growth, to provide a measurement of its strength. Second, they enable us to determine the temporal pattern of the response of income to exports. In some cases Export-Led Growth is a long run phenomenon, in the sense that export promotion strategies adopted today have their strongest effect after 8 to 16 years. In other cases the opposite is true; exports have their greatest influence in the short run (less than 4 years). We find modest support for the export- led Growth hypothesis, if “support” is taken to mean a unidirectional causal ordering. Conditional on import Growth, we find a causal ordering from export Growth to income Growth in 30 of the 126 countries analysed; 25 have the reverse ordering. Using a weaker notion of “support”--stronger conditional feedback from exports to income than vice versa, 65 of the 126 countries support the export- led Growth hypothesis, although the difference in strength is small. Finally, we find that for the “Asian Tiger” countries of the Pacific Rim, the relationship between export Growth and output Growth becomes clearer when conditioned on human capital and investment Growth as well as import Growth. (This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item. (This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
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The Engine of Growth or Its Handmaiden? A Time-Series Assessment of Export-Led Growth
1996Co-Authors: Raymond Riezman, Charles H. Whiteman, Peter M SummersAbstract:This paper presents an analysis of time-series data for the countries in the Summers-Heston (1991) data set, in an attempt to ascertain the evidence for or against the Export-Led Growth hypothesis. We find that standard methods of detecting Export-Led Growth using Granger causality tests may give misleading results if imports are not included in the system being analysed. For this reason, our main statistical tool is the measure of conditional linear feedback developed by Geweke (1984), which allows us to examine the relationship between export Growth and income Growth while controlling for the Growth of imports. These measures have two additional features which make them attractive for our work. First, they go beyond mere detection of evidence for Export-Led Growth, to provide a measurement of its strength. Second, they enable us to determine the temporal pattern of the response of income to exports. In some cases Export-Led Growth is a long run phenomenon, in the sense that export promotion strategies adopted today have their strongest effect after 8 to 16 years. In other cases the opposite is true; exports have their greatest influence in the short run (less than 4 years). We find modest support for the export- led Growth hypothesis, if “support” is taken to mean a unidirectional causal ordering. Conditional on import Growth, we find a causal ordering from export Growth to income Growth in 30 of the 126 countries analysed; 25 have the reverse ordering. Using a weaker notion of “support”--stronger conditional feedback from exports to income than vice versa, 65 of the 126 countries support the export- led Growth hypothesis, although the difference in strength is small. Finally, we find that for the “Asian Tiger” countries of the Pacific Rim, the relationship between export Growth and output Growth becomes clearer when conditioned on human capital and investment Growth as well as import Growth.
Jim Love - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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Testing export‐led Growth in South Asia
Journal of Economic Studies, 2005Co-Authors: Ramesh Chandra, Jim LoveAbstract:Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to test the export‐led Growth hypothesis for South Asia, a diverse region consisting of one large country, India, surrounded by a number of medium and small countries such as Pakistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Nepal, Bhutan and Maldives.Design/methodology/approach – To test this, the study employs cointegration and error‐correction modelling, using data from the International Financial Statistics of the IMF.Findings – The study produces fairly mixed results, and does not find any conclusive evidence in favour of export‐led Growth. While India, Maldives and Nepal exhibit export‐led Growth, Bangladesh and Bhutan show the opposite result of Growth‐led exports. In Pakistan and Sri Lanka no causality in either direction was found. The mixed nature of the results is further confirmed by taking a common time period since 1980.Practical implications – South Asia is one of the poorest regions of the world; so success or otherwise of export‐led Growth is of great interest for po...
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Testing Export-Led Growth in India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka using a multivariate framework
The Manchester School, 2004Co-Authors: Jim Love, Ramesh ChandraAbstract:Most time-series studies in the area of Export-Led Growth adopt a bivariate framework and neglect the role of terms of trade. Because the terms of trade have an important bearing on export earnings and income, the underlying models of these studies may have been misspecified. This study is the first to adopt a multivariate framework for South Asia as a region; and by including the terms of trade as an additional variable it tries to correct the misspecification bias of earlier studies. The evidence suggests bidirectional causality between real exports and real income in India, Export-Led Growth in Pakistan and a no-causality result for Sri Lanka.
Roswitha M King - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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endogenous supply side constraints to export led Growth and aggregate Growth implications in transition economies
Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 2015Co-Authors: Trondarne Borgersen, Roswitha M KingAbstract:This paper analyses the endogenous limits to Export-Led Growth inherent in an economy's supply side. The supply side determination of export Growth relates it, as well as the cross-sectoral subsidy, to the economy's industrial structure and difference in productivity Growth between sectors. Starting off from fixed sector sizes we endogenise the relation between sector sizes and the productivity Growth differential and highlight an economy's structural flexibility. We also highlight the differing implications for the economy from whether a widening productivity Growth gap is due to higher productivity Growth in the tradable sector or lower productivity Growth in the non-tradable sector. When analyzing a transition economy's ability to transform differences in productivity Growth into aggregate Growth we find a highly context specific relation. We show how transition might be characterized by aggregate Growth exceeding tradable sector productivity Growth or vice versa depending on the combination between industrial structure, the prevailing incentives for structural change and the ability to take advantage of such incentives. We identify tipping points for endogenous phase shifts where aggregate Growth changes from accelerating to diminishing Growth and vice versa.
Neil Dias Karunaratne - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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Exports and economic Growth in Bangladesh: Has manufacturing exports become a new engine of Export-Led Growth?
International Trade Journal, 2004Co-Authors: Mohammad A. Hossain, Neil Dias KarunaratneAbstract:This article empirically verifies the Export-Led Growth hypothesis for Bangladesh and examines whether manufacturing exports have become a new engine of the Export-Led Growth in Bangladesh, replacing the total exports-engine, as claimed by the so called de novo hypothesis. The empirical assessment based on the vector error correction modeling (VECM) that uses quarterly data over the period 1974-1999 suggests that both total exports and manufacturing exports have had positive and statistically significant impacts both in the long run and the short run. But an encompassing test in conjunction with the various non-nested tests suggests that total exports, as opposed to manufacturing exports in isolation, is the dominant engine of the Export-Led Growth. This refutes the claim that manufacturing exports has become the sole determinant of the Export-Led Growth in Bangladesh.
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On Export-Led Growth: Is Manufacturing Exports a New Engine of Growth for Bangladesh?
2001Co-Authors: Mohammad A. Hossain, Neil Dias KarunaratneAbstract:The study attempts to empirically verify the Export-Led Growth hypothesis for Bangladesh. In this context, we examine whether manufacturing exports has become a new engine of Export-Led Growth replacing total exports, as claimed by the so-called de novo hypothesis. The empirical analysis, based on the vector error correction modelling (VECM), suggests that both total exports and manufacturing exports have both long run and contemporaneous effects on the Growth of GDP as well as manufacturing output. According to the non-nested tests, total exports emerges as the engine of Export-Led Growth (i.e., GDP). For manufacturing output, however, both total exports and manufacturing exports emerge as engines of Growth. Therefore, manufacturing exports is not the sole determinant of the Export-Led Growth for Bangladesh.
