The Experts below are selected from a list of 7071 Experts worldwide ranked by ideXlab platform
Linde Gotz - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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Export Restrictions do consumers really benefit the wheat to bread supply chain in serbia
Food Policy, 2016Co-Authors: Ivan Djuric, Linde GotzAbstract:Our approach combines price transmission and gross margin analysis at different stages of the wheat-to-bread supply chain. Results suggest that the effects of Export Restrictions on the end consumer prices for bread, and thus food price inflation, heavily depend on the price behavior of the intermediates. In contrast to theory, consumers in Serbia experienced welfare losses despite comprehensive governmental market interventions. In particular, consumers were confronted with increasing flour and bread prices, which cannot be fully explained by increasing production costs, whereas mills, bakeries and retailers increased their profits. Thus, Export controls in combination with high price volatility in the supply chain have to be considered as a further factor driving food price inflation.
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Export Restrictions – Do consumers really benefit? The wheat-to-bread supply chain in Serbia
Food Policy, 2016Co-Authors: Ivan Djuric, Linde GotzAbstract:Abstract Our approach combines price transmission and gross margin analysis at different stages of the wheat-to-bread supply chain. Results suggest that the effects of Export Restrictions on the end consumer prices for bread, and thus food price inflation, heavily depend on the price behavior of the intermediates. In contrast to theory, consumers in Serbia experienced welfare losses despite comprehensive governmental market interventions. In particular, consumers were confronted with increasing flour and bread prices, which cannot be fully explained by increasing production costs, whereas mills, bakeries and retailers increased their profits. Thus, Export controls in combination with high price volatility in the supply chain have to be considered as a further factor driving food price inflation.
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wheat Export Restrictions and domestic market effects in russia and ukraine during the food crisis
Food Policy, 2013Co-Authors: Linde Gotz, Thomas Glauben, Bernhard BrümmerAbstract:Studies investigating the effects of wheat Export controls on the domestic market in the Exporting country itself are scarce. This paper analyses the domestic market impact of wheat Export controls in Russia and Ukraine during the 2007/2008 global food crisis within a spatial price transmission approach. Using a Markov-switching vector error-correction model, we contrast our estimation for Russia and Ukraine with Germany and the USA, two countries that did not intervene in their wheat Export markets. An explicit “crisis” regime during times of Export controls is exclusively identified for Russia and Ukraine. We find that Export Restrictions temporarily reduced the degree of integration of Russian and Ukrainian domestic markets in world wheat markets, which pushed the growers prices below their long-run equilibrium level. Further, domestic markets were disconnected from their equilibrium and market instability increased. These effects were even more pronounced and long lasting in Ukraine (Export quota) than in Russia (Export tax). The negative market effects discouraged private investors, thereby preventing Russia and Ukraine from maximizing their grain potential and contributing to global food security.
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Export Restrictions and multiple spatial price equilibria Export quotas for wheat in ukraine
53rd Annual Conference Berlin Germany September 25-27 2013, 2013Co-Authors: Linde Gotz, Feng Qiu, Jeanphilippe Gervais, Thomas GlaubenAbstract:Relatively few models exist that allow for regime-dependent spatial price equilibria. This paper focuses on temporary Export Restrictions during international commodity price peaks. Theory suggests that Export Restrictions have price insulating effects and lead to multiple spatial equilibria between domestic and world market prices. Our analysis is unique in that it tests for linear versus non-linear cointegration within a smooth transition cointegration model. Applying this model to the wheat Export quota in Ukraine shows that the domestic wheat price was stabilised approximately 30% below the international wheat price during the two recent price spikes. From a global point of view, the domestic wheat price in Ukraine would have increased to the same degree if no country had engaged in price insulating behaviour worldwide from 2006 to 2008.
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Export Restrictions and market uncertainty evidence from the analysis of price volatility in the ukrainian wheat market
2013 Annual Meeting August 4-6 2013 Washington D.C., 2013Co-Authors: Linde Gotz, Thomas Glauben, Kateryna Goychuk, William H MeyersAbstract:The impact of Export Restrictions on market uncertainty has not been investigated before. This paper analyses the development of price volatility in the Ukrainian wheat market characterized by Export Restrictions during the commodity price peaks 2007/08 and 2010/11 within a dynamic conditional correlation GARCH model. We conclude that the Export controls in Ukraine have not significantly reduced price volatility on the domestic wheat market. On the contrary, our findings suggest that the multiple and unpredictable political interference of the Ukrainian government on the wheat Export market has substantially increased market uncertainty which led to pronounced additional price volatility in the market. The highly uncertain and unpredictable environment of wheat markets with restricted Exports has dramatic consequences for the grain sector in Ukraine and prevents its further development.
Bernhard Brümmer - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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Impacts of Export Restrictions on Food Price Volatility: Evidence from VAR-X and EGARCH-X Models
2017Co-Authors: Bernhard Dalheimer, Bernhard Brümmer, Tinoush Jamali JaghdaniAbstract:While Export restrictive policy has long been associated with increasing food price volatility, it has received minimal attention in the empirical literature compared to other potential drivers of international food price fluctuations. This paper aims at closing this gap by firstly quantifying the relevant policies in an indicator of Export restrictive policy. Subsequently, the effects of that are tested on estimated realized and GARCH volatility in VAR-X models where various wheat price volatilities are allowed to be endogenously determined. In a second step, the impacts of Export controls during times of market turmoil are assessed in asymmetric volatility models. This strategy succinctly reveals the effects of Export controls along the policy, frequency, country and time dimensions providing a detailed set of evidence. It is found that, most pronounced effects on wheat price volatility stem from long-term quotas. Similarly, longer term prohibitions of some countries have impacted wheat price fluctuation as well. On the contrary, long term tax strategies are shown to not significantly impact wheat price volatility. However, during times of market turmoil all three considered Export Restrictions have particularly contributed to wheat price volatility. Strengthened and more binding WTO regulation could have led to significantly less food price volatility, especially in times of food price crisis, such as recently experienced during the 2007/08 and 2010/11 episodes.
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wheat Export Restrictions and domestic market effects in russia and ukraine during the food crisis
Food Policy, 2013Co-Authors: Linde Gotz, Thomas Glauben, Bernhard BrümmerAbstract:Studies investigating the effects of wheat Export controls on the domestic market in the Exporting country itself are scarce. This paper analyses the domestic market impact of wheat Export controls in Russia and Ukraine during the 2007/2008 global food crisis within a spatial price transmission approach. Using a Markov-switching vector error-correction model, we contrast our estimation for Russia and Ukraine with Germany and the USA, two countries that did not intervene in their wheat Export markets. An explicit “crisis” regime during times of Export controls is exclusively identified for Russia and Ukraine. We find that Export Restrictions temporarily reduced the degree of integration of Russian and Ukrainian domestic markets in world wheat markets, which pushed the growers prices below their long-run equilibrium level. Further, domestic markets were disconnected from their equilibrium and market instability increased. These effects were even more pronounced and long lasting in Ukraine (Export quota) than in Russia (Export tax). The negative market effects discouraged private investors, thereby preventing Russia and Ukraine from maximizing their grain potential and contributing to global food security.
Thomas Glauben - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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wheat Export Restrictions and domestic market effects in russia and ukraine during the food crisis
Food Policy, 2013Co-Authors: Linde Gotz, Thomas Glauben, Bernhard BrümmerAbstract:Studies investigating the effects of wheat Export controls on the domestic market in the Exporting country itself are scarce. This paper analyses the domestic market impact of wheat Export controls in Russia and Ukraine during the 2007/2008 global food crisis within a spatial price transmission approach. Using a Markov-switching vector error-correction model, we contrast our estimation for Russia and Ukraine with Germany and the USA, two countries that did not intervene in their wheat Export markets. An explicit “crisis” regime during times of Export controls is exclusively identified for Russia and Ukraine. We find that Export Restrictions temporarily reduced the degree of integration of Russian and Ukrainian domestic markets in world wheat markets, which pushed the growers prices below their long-run equilibrium level. Further, domestic markets were disconnected from their equilibrium and market instability increased. These effects were even more pronounced and long lasting in Ukraine (Export quota) than in Russia (Export tax). The negative market effects discouraged private investors, thereby preventing Russia and Ukraine from maximizing their grain potential and contributing to global food security.
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Export Restrictions and multiple spatial price equilibria Export quotas for wheat in ukraine
53rd Annual Conference Berlin Germany September 25-27 2013, 2013Co-Authors: Linde Gotz, Feng Qiu, Jeanphilippe Gervais, Thomas GlaubenAbstract:Relatively few models exist that allow for regime-dependent spatial price equilibria. This paper focuses on temporary Export Restrictions during international commodity price peaks. Theory suggests that Export Restrictions have price insulating effects and lead to multiple spatial equilibria between domestic and world market prices. Our analysis is unique in that it tests for linear versus non-linear cointegration within a smooth transition cointegration model. Applying this model to the wheat Export quota in Ukraine shows that the domestic wheat price was stabilised approximately 30% below the international wheat price during the two recent price spikes. From a global point of view, the domestic wheat price in Ukraine would have increased to the same degree if no country had engaged in price insulating behaviour worldwide from 2006 to 2008.
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Export Restrictions and market uncertainty evidence from the analysis of price volatility in the ukrainian wheat market
2013 Annual Meeting August 4-6 2013 Washington D.C., 2013Co-Authors: Linde Gotz, Thomas Glauben, Kateryna Goychuk, William H MeyersAbstract:The impact of Export Restrictions on market uncertainty has not been investigated before. This paper analyses the development of price volatility in the Ukrainian wheat market characterized by Export Restrictions during the commodity price peaks 2007/08 and 2010/11 within a dynamic conditional correlation GARCH model. We conclude that the Export controls in Ukraine have not significantly reduced price volatility on the domestic wheat market. On the contrary, our findings suggest that the multiple and unpredictable political interference of the Ukrainian government on the wheat Export market has substantially increased market uncertainty which led to pronounced additional price volatility in the market. The highly uncertain and unpredictable environment of wheat markets with restricted Exports has dramatic consequences for the grain sector in Ukraine and prevents its further development.
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Export Restrictions and multiple spatial price equilibria when international prices spike Export quotas for wheat in ukraine
2012: New Rules of Trade? December 2012 San Diego California, 2012Co-Authors: Linde Gotz, Feng Qiu, Jeanphilippe Gervais, Thomas GlaubenAbstract:Only few models exist which allow for a regime-dependent spatial price equilibrium. This paper focuses on the price insulating effects of Export Restrictions. The theory of a Walrasian equilibrium and the spatial price equilibrium theory suggest that Export Restrictions lead to multiple spatial equilibria between the domestic and the world market price. Our analysis is unique in testing for linear versus non-linear cointegration within a smooth transition cointegration model. The application to the wheat Export quota in Ukraine shows that the domestic wheat price was stabilized about 30% below the international wheat price during the two recent price booms. We trace back the increased speed of adjustment in the closed trade regime to increased price information flows and heightened information attention when prices are volatile and high. From a global point of view, the domestic wheat price in Ukraine would have increased to the same degree, if no country had engaged in price insulating behaviour 2006-2008 worldwide.
Jane Korinek - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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Export Restrictions on raw materials experience with alternative policies in botswana
OECD Trade Policy Papers, 2014Co-Authors: Jane KorinekAbstract:Demand for non-renewable natural resources is forecast to rise steadily over the coming decades. Underlying trends of long-term rising demand and falling supply of mineral resources will inevitably increase pressure on prices and intensify competition for scarce resources. This can create a substantial opportunity for development for minerals-rich countries. However, as suggested by the “resource curse” debate, broad-based economic development based on the extractive industries is far from assured. History suggests that not all countries, in particular many of those outside the OECD area, have benefitted economy-wide from their mineral resources: good governance and good policies are essential to benefit from their huge potential growth. Some countries have successfully regulated their mining sectors without resorting to highly distortive policies such as Export Restrictions. One such country is Botswana. This paper examines some of the policies in place in Botswana that have contributed to the governance and management of its substantial minerals sector. Lessons are drawn for minerals-rich countries keen to manage their raw materials sectors for increased economy-wide growth.
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economics of Export Restrictions as applied to industrial raw materials
OECD Trade Policy Papers, 2013Co-Authors: K C Fung, Jane KorinekAbstract:Governments intervene in non-renewable natural resources sectors more than in many others, including through the use of Export taxes and quotas. Industrial raw materials sectors are characterized by a number of specificities: production is often geographically concentrated, firms are often large with substantial market power, production processes are highly capital intensive, products are relatively homogeneous and potentially substantial differences in costs of production are prevalent. This paper aims to increase understanding of the economic effects of Export Restrictions, in particular as they apply to the mining sector. It ascertains the prevalence of Export Restrictions on metals and minerals, proposes a Cournot-Nash model of Export Restrictions, suggests some of the economic effects due to the presence of Export Restrictions, and draws some implications for trade policy among producing and consuming countries of non-renewable natural resources.
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Multilateralising Regionalism: Disciplines on Export Restrictions in Regional Trade Agreements
OECD Trade Policy Papers, 2012Co-Authors: Jane Korinek, Jessica BartosAbstract:The proliferation of preferential trade agreements has posed challenges for the multilateral trading system. But regional trade agreements (RTAs) also allow countries to develop and strengthen trade disciplines beyond what is possible at the multilateral level. In some instances, RTAs explore policy areas that are the subject of few disciplines at the multilateral level. They may provide lessons and suggest good practices that could be used to inform discussions in a wider setting. One such policy area is Export Restrictions and taxes. Export Restrictions and duties have not been given the same degree of attention in multilateral trade agreements and negotiations as the elimination of import tariffs and quantitative Restrictions. The WTO provides a general prohibition on quantitative Export Restrictions but the broad and, at times, ambiguous exceptions somewhat vitiate the ban. Moreover, Export taxes are not explicitly forbidden in the WTO. This study suggests that there are a number of ways by which WTO disciplines could benefit from the approaches found in some RTAs in the area of Export Restrictions.
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Export Restrictions on Strategic Raw Materials and Their Impact on Trade
2010Co-Authors: Jane Korinek, Jeonghoi KimAbstract:Barriers to trade come in a variety of forms. This paper examines one such barrier, Export Restrictions, and how it impacts trade and global supply in selected strategic metals and minerals. The metals and minerals examined in the paper are of particular interest for a number of reasons: they are generally geographically concentrated in a few countries, many are used in the production of high-technology goods in strategic sectors and there are few substitutes for these raw materials given the present state of technology. For all these reasons, importing countries are dependent on a reliable supply of these raw materials. Export Restrictions may be applied for a number of reasons: protection of the environment, preservation of natural resources, protection of downstream industries, or as a response to a number of different market imperfections. This paper examines the motivations for using Export Restrictions and finds varying impacts on trade and global supply. In one case, the Export Restrictions put into place did not fulfill their objective of environmental protection. In another, the presence of Export Restrictions in one country put pressure on other Exporters to apply Restrictions suggesting the potential for competitive policy practices in restricting Exports. In a third case study, Export Restrictions were seen to impact investment decisions by potential suppliers worldwide by introducing an added element of risk in the industry. The impact of Export Restrictions on strategic metals and minerals are exacerbated in many cases because producing countries have a quasi-monopoly on supply. Since these metals and minerals are essential in the production of some high-technology products and are not easily replaceable in the medium term, industry participants in some importing countries are concerned about future access at sustainable prices.
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Export Restrictions on strategic raw materials and their impact on trade and global supply
OECD Trade Policy Studies, 2010Co-Authors: Jane KorinekAbstract:This chapter examines how Export Restrictions impact on trade and the global supply of selected strategic metals and minerals. The metals and minerals examined are of particular interest for a number of reasons: they are generally geographically concentrated in a few countries, many are used in the production of high-technology goods in strategic sectors, and there are few substitutes for these raw materials given the present state of technology. Case studies of Export Restrictions concerning three raw materials — molybdenum, chromite and rare earths — shed some light on the potential global effects of Export Restrictions on strategic raw materials.
Giovanni Gruni - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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Going from One Extreme to the Other: Food Security and Export Restrictions in the EU–CARIFORUM Economic Partnership Agreement
European Law Journal, 2013Co-Authors: Giovanni GruniAbstract:Between 2007 and 2008, the price of several basic food products spiked suddenly, leaving millions of people without economic access to sufficient food. During the crisis, World Trade Organization (WTO) law was unable to avoid that the use of Export Restrictions by influential Exporting countries jeopardises food security in vulnerable states. A recent trade agreement between the EU and a group of Caribbean countries includes innovative clauses that prohibit Export Restrictions altogether. This article argues that the prohibition to use Export Restrictions contained in this agreement is an excessively restrictive solution that does not solve the problems that emerged during the global food crisis. The article concludes with a reflection on the limits of WTO law and the trade policy of the EU with regard to the improvement of food security in vulnerable countries.
