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Göran Berndes - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.

  • Fuel ethanol program in Thailand: Energy, agricultural, and environmental trade-offs and prospects for CO2 abatement
    Energy for Sustainable Development, 2007
    Co-Authors: Wathanyu Amatayakul, Göran Berndes
    Abstract:

    Thailand has established an ethanol program with a target of replacing all conventional Gasoline with E10 gasohol (Gasoline containing 10% by volume of ethanol) by 2012. This paper assesses the impacts of achieving the target on (1) land-use change, (2) trade balance, (3) Gasoline and associated food crop self-sufficiency, and (4) GHG emissions. In addition, the abatement cost of replacing Gasoline with gasohol (additional cost of supplying gasohol) and the tax revenue forgone in implementing the program are estimated. Finally, in order to obtain insights in relation to the prospects of the national program vs. project-based Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) for CO2 abatement, the ethanol program is compared with specific biofuel projects. We find that achieving the ethanol program target can lead to a significant improvement in the Gasoline self-sufficiency rate (from 10 to 20%) and significantly reduce GHG emissions (corresponding to 2% of the total energy-related CO2 emissions in 2004) over the period of 2005-2012. The ethanol program can induce a significant (up to 200,000 ha in magnitude) transition from food crop production (mainly corn and rice) to cassava production for ethanol leading to a reduction in the self-sufficiency rates of associated food crops. But the crop self-sufficiency rates would still be above 100% and Thailand's agricultural sector should be able to accommodate the present program target. Whether and to what extent the program leads to an improvement in the trade balance depends substantially on fuel and agricultural prices, sources of cassava supply, and responses of refineries to decreased Gasoline demand. The annual average Gasoline Substitution cost is estimated at 25-195 US$/tCO2e, which is high compared with the price of project-based certified emission reductions traded during 2006 but low compared with estimates of the cost of substituting biofuels for fossil fuels in Europe. The tax revenue forgone is estimated at 2-4 times the Gasoline Substitution cost. Thailand's ethanol program illustrates that under dynamic government support, it may not be possible to identify the additionality of CDM projects for biofuel production and blending with fossil fuels. Implementing national programs as the basis for carbon credits could avoid the issues of double-counting and also have other advantages. © 2007 International Energy Initiative, Inc.

  • Fuel ethanol program in Thailand: energy, agricultural, and environmental trade-offs and prospects for CO2abatement
    Energy for Sustainable Development, 2007
    Co-Authors: Wathanyu Amatayakul, Göran Berndes
    Abstract:

    Thailand has established an ethanol program with a target of replacing all conventional Gasoline with E10 gasohol (Gasoline containing 10% by volume of ethanol) by 2012. This paper assesses the impacts of achieving the target on (1) land-use change, (2) trade balance, (3) Gasoline and associated food crop self-sufficiency, and (4) GHG emissions. In addition, the abatement cost of replacing Gasoline with gasohol (additional cost of supplying gasohol) and the tax revenue forgone in implementing the program are estimated. Finally, in order to obtain insights in relation to the prospects of the national program vs. project-based Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) for CO2abatement, the ethanol program is compared with specific biofuel projects. We find that achieving the ethanol program target can lead to a significant improvement in the Gasoline self-sufficiency rate (from 10 to 20%) and significantly reduce GHG emissions (corresponding to 2% of the total energy-related CO2emissions in 2004) over the period of 2005-2012. The ethanol program can induce a significant (up to 200,000 ha in magnitude) transition from food crop production (mainly corn and rice) to cassava production for ethanol leading to a reduction in the self-sufficiency rates of associated food crops. But the crop self-sufficiency rates would still be above 100% and Thailand's agricultural sector should be able to accommodate the present program target. Whether and to what extent the program leads to an improvement in the trade balance depends substantially on fuel and agricultural prices, sources of cassava supply, and responses of refineries to decreased Gasoline demand. The annual average Gasoline Substitution cost is estimated at 25-195 US$/tCO2e, which is high compared with the price of project-based certified emission reductions traded during 2006 but low compared with estimates of the cost of substituting biofuels for fossil fuels in Europe. The tax revenue forgone is estimated at 2-4 times the Gasoline Substitution cost. Thailand's ethanol program illustrates that under dynamic government support, it may not be possible to identify the additionality of CDM projects for biofuel production and blending with fossil fuels. Implementing national programs as the basis for carbon credits could avoid the issues of double-counting and also have other advantages. © 2007 International Energy Initiative, Inc.

Wathanyu Amatayakul - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.

  • At the crossroads of bioenergy and agriculture in developing countries : Challenges and prospects for fossil fuels replacement and CO2 abatement in the case of Thailand
    2020
    Co-Authors: Wathanyu Amatayakul
    Abstract:

    Studies estimate that the potential contribution of biomass to the global primary energy supply from cultivation of crops for energy is substantial in the long term, from about 50 to 240 EJ/year in 2050. Most of this biomass is projected to come from cultivation in developing countries. Yet, most studies estimate the theoretical potential from a top-down perspective and there is a lack of detailed analyses and understanding of the present development of various bioenergy plantations in developing countries. Major challenges in implementing bioenergy plantations involve other competitive sources of energy, competitive uses of biomass and land, and impact on food crops production and environmental impacts of production. A better understanding of these challenges would help realize the “practical” potential of biomass from plantations for energy as well as help in designing policies to assure that the plantations will lead to global and national benefits without compromising local livelihood and environment. This licentiate thesis investigates these challenges and the prospects for substituting biomass from plantations for fossil fuels and CO2 abatement at the local and country level in the case of Thailand. In the first paper, we analyze 1) the levelized cost of production of eucalyptus wood, 2) to what extent the economics of the production improve if the biospheric carbon stock changes are credited, and 3) the abatement cost of substituting eucalyptus wood for fossil fuels for electricity generation. The levelized cost of wood is estimated at 1.2-1.7 USD/GJ. We find that, given a carbon permit price of 10 USD/ton-C, carbon crediting could reduce the establishment cost of the plantation by 100 USD/hectare (20-50%) or reduce the levelized cost of wood by 0.2 USD/GJ (10-20%). The cost of substituting a wood-fired plant for a coal-fired and a gas-fired power plant is estimated at 107 and 196 USD/ton-C. The prospects of eucalyptus plantations for electricity generation and CO2 abatement also depends on several factors that affect farmers’ decisions to plant eucalyptus. In the second paper, we seek to answer the following questions: 1) what are the characteristics of farmers who commercially plant woody energy crops? 2) what determines their planting decisions? and 3) on which types of land are the crops planted? We survey the characteristics of the commercial growers and non-growers of eucalyptus trees by interviews and apply econometric models to analyze the determining factors of, first, the farmers’ decision to plant eucalyptus and, second, how large an area to plant with eucalyptus. We find that eucalyptus growers have on average three times larger farm size and a higher annual family income. The most important factor that increases the likelihood of planting eucalyptus is having a large farm. We show that who cultivates a given parcel of land—several small-scale subsistence farmers or a single wealthier farmer—significantly determines the amount of land used for wood cultivation. In addition, eucalyptus and cassava price is the most important factor determining the fraction of the total land used for eucalyptus. Land quality does not significantly affect the planting decisions, and eucalyptus is planted both on lands unsuitable and suitable for food crops (mainly cassava). In the third paper, we analyze the trade-offs in achieving the government’s national ethanol program target of replacing all conventional Gasoline with E10 gasohol (Gasoline containing ethanol at 10% by volume), by 2012. Achieving the target leads to the following impacts over the period 2005-2012: 1) a displacement of the areas of maize and rice up to 0.2 million hectare; 2) a net trade change ranging from negative 110 MUSD to positive 190 MUSD per year; 3) an increase in the self-sufficiency rate of Gasoline from 10 to 20% and a decrease in the self-sufficiency rate of molasses from 165 to 100%, and of cassava and maize from 420 to 330% and from 120 to 95% at the lowest, respectively; and 4) a total GHG emissions reduction of 4.0 million tons CO2 equivalent (CO2e). The annual average cost of substituting gasohol for Gasoline is estimated at 25-195 USD/ton-CO2e and is high compared with the price of project-based certified emissions reductions traded during 2006 but low compared with estimates of the cost of substituting biofuels for fossil fuels in Europe. The cost of tax revenues foregone in implementing the program is estimated at 2-4 times higher than the Gasoline Substitution cost. Compared to proposed projects on biofuels for blending with fossil fuels under the clean development mechanism (CDM), the ethanol program could avoid the issue of additionality and double counting and also has some other advantages.

  • Fuel ethanol program in Thailand: Energy, agricultural, and environmental trade-offs and prospects for CO2 abatement
    Energy for Sustainable Development, 2007
    Co-Authors: Wathanyu Amatayakul, Göran Berndes
    Abstract:

    Thailand has established an ethanol program with a target of replacing all conventional Gasoline with E10 gasohol (Gasoline containing 10% by volume of ethanol) by 2012. This paper assesses the impacts of achieving the target on (1) land-use change, (2) trade balance, (3) Gasoline and associated food crop self-sufficiency, and (4) GHG emissions. In addition, the abatement cost of replacing Gasoline with gasohol (additional cost of supplying gasohol) and the tax revenue forgone in implementing the program are estimated. Finally, in order to obtain insights in relation to the prospects of the national program vs. project-based Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) for CO2 abatement, the ethanol program is compared with specific biofuel projects. We find that achieving the ethanol program target can lead to a significant improvement in the Gasoline self-sufficiency rate (from 10 to 20%) and significantly reduce GHG emissions (corresponding to 2% of the total energy-related CO2 emissions in 2004) over the period of 2005-2012. The ethanol program can induce a significant (up to 200,000 ha in magnitude) transition from food crop production (mainly corn and rice) to cassava production for ethanol leading to a reduction in the self-sufficiency rates of associated food crops. But the crop self-sufficiency rates would still be above 100% and Thailand's agricultural sector should be able to accommodate the present program target. Whether and to what extent the program leads to an improvement in the trade balance depends substantially on fuel and agricultural prices, sources of cassava supply, and responses of refineries to decreased Gasoline demand. The annual average Gasoline Substitution cost is estimated at 25-195 US$/tCO2e, which is high compared with the price of project-based certified emission reductions traded during 2006 but low compared with estimates of the cost of substituting biofuels for fossil fuels in Europe. The tax revenue forgone is estimated at 2-4 times the Gasoline Substitution cost. Thailand's ethanol program illustrates that under dynamic government support, it may not be possible to identify the additionality of CDM projects for biofuel production and blending with fossil fuels. Implementing national programs as the basis for carbon credits could avoid the issues of double-counting and also have other advantages. © 2007 International Energy Initiative, Inc.

  • Fuel ethanol program in Thailand: energy, agricultural, and environmental trade-offs and prospects for CO2abatement
    Energy for Sustainable Development, 2007
    Co-Authors: Wathanyu Amatayakul, Göran Berndes
    Abstract:

    Thailand has established an ethanol program with a target of replacing all conventional Gasoline with E10 gasohol (Gasoline containing 10% by volume of ethanol) by 2012. This paper assesses the impacts of achieving the target on (1) land-use change, (2) trade balance, (3) Gasoline and associated food crop self-sufficiency, and (4) GHG emissions. In addition, the abatement cost of replacing Gasoline with gasohol (additional cost of supplying gasohol) and the tax revenue forgone in implementing the program are estimated. Finally, in order to obtain insights in relation to the prospects of the national program vs. project-based Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) for CO2abatement, the ethanol program is compared with specific biofuel projects. We find that achieving the ethanol program target can lead to a significant improvement in the Gasoline self-sufficiency rate (from 10 to 20%) and significantly reduce GHG emissions (corresponding to 2% of the total energy-related CO2emissions in 2004) over the period of 2005-2012. The ethanol program can induce a significant (up to 200,000 ha in magnitude) transition from food crop production (mainly corn and rice) to cassava production for ethanol leading to a reduction in the self-sufficiency rates of associated food crops. But the crop self-sufficiency rates would still be above 100% and Thailand's agricultural sector should be able to accommodate the present program target. Whether and to what extent the program leads to an improvement in the trade balance depends substantially on fuel and agricultural prices, sources of cassava supply, and responses of refineries to decreased Gasoline demand. The annual average Gasoline Substitution cost is estimated at 25-195 US$/tCO2e, which is high compared with the price of project-based certified emission reductions traded during 2006 but low compared with estimates of the cost of substituting biofuels for fossil fuels in Europe. The tax revenue forgone is estimated at 2-4 times the Gasoline Substitution cost. Thailand's ethanol program illustrates that under dynamic government support, it may not be possible to identify the additionality of CDM projects for biofuel production and blending with fossil fuels. Implementing national programs as the basis for carbon credits could avoid the issues of double-counting and also have other advantages. © 2007 International Energy Initiative, Inc.

Simone Maciel Cuiabano - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.

  • COMPETITION POLICY EVALUATION THROUGH DAMAGE ESTIMATION IN FUEL RETAIL CARTEL IN LONDRINA, BRAZIL
    Revista de Economia Contemporânea, 2020
    Co-Authors: Simone Maciel Cuiabano
    Abstract:

    ABSTRACT This paper estimates the fuel retailer cartel damages in the city of Londrina, Parana, part south of Brazil, using reduced and structural forms for supply and demand. Brazilian Competition Authority (CADE) documents help to characterize the ethanol and Gasoline retailers involved in the collusion. The objective is to evaluate competition policy by comparing the amount of estimated damages with the amount of applied fines. This paper also adds an important result to Gasoline Substitution, as data shows ethanol is perceived as a perfect substitute and its price is inelastic. Results show an overcharge of 3.6% to 6.6% in the Gasoline market and up to 12% in the ethanol market during collusion. Fines should consider the deterrence effect and, giving the low probability of detection, CADE’s applied fines seemed to be in line with this objective.

  • Competition Policy Evaluation through Damage Estimation in Fuel Retail Cartel
    2017
    Co-Authors: Simone Maciel Cuiabano
    Abstract:

    I estimate the fuel retailer cartel damages in the south of Brazil using reduced and structural forms for supply and demand. Brazilian Competition Authority (CADE) documents help to characterize the ethanol and Gasoline retailers involved in the collusion. The objective is to evaluate competition policy by comparing the amount of estimated damages with the amount of applied fines. This paper also adds an important result to Gasoline Substitution, as data shows that ethanol is perceived as a perfect substitute and it is price inelastic. Results show an overcharge of 4.6% to 6.6% in the Gasoline market and up to 12% in the ethanol market during collusion. Fines should consider the deterrence effect and, giving the low probability of detection, CADE’s applied fines seemed to be in line with this objective.

Shabbir H Gheewala - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.

  • can Substitution of imported Gasoline by locally produced molasses ethanol in ethiopia be sustainable an eco efficiency assessment
    Renewable & Sustainable Energy Reviews, 2020
    Co-Authors: Elias W Gabisa, Shabbir H Gheewala
    Abstract:

    Abstract Ethiopia is one of the fastest growing countries in the world with a 10.9% GDP growth rate in 2017. This high growth cannot be sustained without the deployment of modern energy in its different forms. To this end, the government is approaching the production of different types of modern and renewable energy. Among the renewable energy, molasses ethanol is the one given attention. This piece of research is aimed at evaluating the sustainability of molasses ethanol production and consumption considering Gasoline Substitution potential and eco-efficiency. The results show that achieving a 10% molasses-based ethanol blend with Gasoline (E10) throughout the country is difficult even with production at full capacity of the existing factories. To achieve E10, 76.2 million liter annual production of ethanol is required, while the current production potential is only 20 million liter. The ambitious government plan of E15 by 2020 can only be achieved by 2025 if all the plants under construction are operational by 2025 and can operate at full capacity. If the plan is achieved, 31.85, 74.5 and 159 million USD can be saved yearly from the E10, E15 and E20 mandates, respectively. Using the byproducts as much as possible within the ethanol-processing framework significantly increases the eco-efficiency (40%) of the products.

Elias W Gabisa - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.

  • can Substitution of imported Gasoline by locally produced molasses ethanol in ethiopia be sustainable an eco efficiency assessment
    Renewable & Sustainable Energy Reviews, 2020
    Co-Authors: Elias W Gabisa, Shabbir H Gheewala
    Abstract:

    Abstract Ethiopia is one of the fastest growing countries in the world with a 10.9% GDP growth rate in 2017. This high growth cannot be sustained without the deployment of modern energy in its different forms. To this end, the government is approaching the production of different types of modern and renewable energy. Among the renewable energy, molasses ethanol is the one given attention. This piece of research is aimed at evaluating the sustainability of molasses ethanol production and consumption considering Gasoline Substitution potential and eco-efficiency. The results show that achieving a 10% molasses-based ethanol blend with Gasoline (E10) throughout the country is difficult even with production at full capacity of the existing factories. To achieve E10, 76.2 million liter annual production of ethanol is required, while the current production potential is only 20 million liter. The ambitious government plan of E15 by 2020 can only be achieved by 2025 if all the plants under construction are operational by 2025 and can operate at full capacity. If the plan is achieved, 31.85, 74.5 and 159 million USD can be saved yearly from the E10, E15 and E20 mandates, respectively. Using the byproducts as much as possible within the ethanol-processing framework significantly increases the eco-efficiency (40%) of the products.