The Experts below are selected from a list of 13773 Experts worldwide ranked by ideXlab platform
Alan J Auerbach - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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on the performance and use of Government Revenue forecasts
National Tax Journal, 1999Co-Authors: Alan J AuerbachAbstract:This paper considers the performance of Government forecasts--by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) and the Office of Management and Budget (OMB)--from the standpoint of bias and efficiency. The results are mixed. On the one hand, their performance has not differed significantly from that of a private forecaster, Data Resources, Inc. (DRI). Further, even when the sample period is broken down into "pessimistic" and "optimistic" periods, forecast errors have such large standard errors that it is difficult to conclude that the forecasts exhibit any underlying bias. On the other hand, the Government forecasts fail statistical tests of efficiency. In particular, forecast revisions exhibit significant serial correlation and strong seasonality. These results suggest that Government Revenue forecasts could, in principle, convey more information than they do at present. Also, the large standard errors of the forecasts stand at odds with the use of point estimates for policy purposes. Because the budget process ignores forecast uncertainty, the "best" forecasts for budget purposes need not be the most accurate point estimates; it might well be appropriate, for example, for forecasts to reflect a pessimistic bias. Thus, the requirements of forecast efficiency and those of a poorly conceived budget process are inconsistent.
Corne Van Walbeek - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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measuring changes in the illicit cigarette market using Government Revenue data the example of south africa
Tobacco Control, 2014Co-Authors: Corne Van WalbeekAbstract:Background The tobacco industry claims that illicit trade in cigarettes has increased sharply since the 1990s and that Government has lost substantial tax Revenue. Objectives (1) To determine whether cigarette excise tax Revenue has been below budget in recent years, compared with previous decades. (2) To determine trends in the size of the illicit market since 1995. Methods For (1), mean percentage errors and root mean square percentage errors were calculated for budget Revenue deviation for three products (cigarettes, beer and spirits), for various subperiods. For (2), predicted changes in total consumption, using actual cigarette price and GDP changes and previously published price and income elasticity estimates, were calculated and compared with changes in tax-paid consumption. Results Cigarette excise Revenues were 0.7% below budget for 2000–2012 on average, compared with 3.0% below budget for beer and 4.7% below budget for spirits. There is no evidence that illicit trade in cigarettes in South Africa increased between 2002 and 2009. There is a substantial increase in illicit trade in 2010, probably peaking in 2011. In 2012 tax-paid consumption of cigarettes increased 2.6%, implying that the illicit market share decreased an estimated 0.6 percentage points. Conclusions Other than in 2010, there is no evidence that illicit trade is significantly undermining Government Revenue. Claims that illicit trade has consistently increased over the past 15 years, and has continued its sharp increase since 2010, are not supported.
David Sweanor - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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the case for ofsmoke how tobacco price regulation is needed to promote the health of markets Government Revenue and the public
Tobacco Control, 2010Co-Authors: Anna B Gilmore, Robert J Branston, David SweanorAbstract:Mainstream economic theory outlines four main causes of market failure and it is already well established that two of these (information failure and externalities) exist in a tobacco market. A third cause of market failure, market power, is also a serious problem in many tobacco markets. Market power—combined with unintended and often overlooked consequences of tobacco tax policies, notably that gradual increases in specific taxes may allow the industry to disguise significant price increases—has, at least in high income countries, given cigarette manufacturers considerable pricing power and profits. This paper examines ways this market failure could be addressed and proposes as a solution a system of price cap regulation wherein a cap is placed on the pre-tax cigarette manufacturers' price but not on the retail price that consumers face. Well established in the utilities industry, price cap regulation would set a maximum price that cigarette companies can charge for their product based on an assessment of the genuine costs each firm faces in its operations and an assumption about the efficiency savings it would be expected to make. Such a system would achieve three main benefits. First, it would address the problem of market failure and excess profits while simultaneously allowing current tobacco control policies, including tax and price increases, to expand—thus tax increases would remain a central tenet of tobacco control policies and retail prices could continue to increase. Second, it would increase Government Revenue by transferring the excess profits from the industry to the Government purse. Third, it would bring numerous public health benefits. In addition to addressing market power, while simultaneously allowing tobacco control policies to expand, it could offer a means of preventing down-trading to cheaper products and controlling unwanted industry practices such as cigarette smuggling, price fixing and marketing to the young. The paper outlines in some detail how such a system might be developed in the UK, while briefly exploring how it could be applied elsewhere, including in markets with state monopolies.
Anthony D So - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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illicit cigarette consumption and Government Revenue loss in indonesia
Globalization and Health, 2014Co-Authors: Abdillah Ahsan, Nur Hadi Wiyono, Diahhadi Setyonaluri, Ryan Denniston, Anthony D SoAbstract:Background: Illicit cigarettes comprise more than 11% of tobacco consumption and 17% of consumption in low- and middle-income countries. Illicit cigarettes, defined as those that evade taxes, lower consumer prices, threaten national tobacco control efforts, and reduce excise tax collection. Methods: This paper measures the magnitude of illicit cigarette consumption within Indonesia using two methods: the discrepancies between legal cigarette sales and domestic consumption estimated from surveys, and discrepancies between imports recorded by Indonesia and exports recorded by trade partners. Smuggling plays a minor role in the availability of illicit cigarettes because Indonesians predominantly consume kreteks, which are primarily manufactured in Indonesia. Results: Looking at the period from 1995 to 2013, illicit cigarettes first emerged in 2004. When no respondent under-reporting is assumed, illicit consumption makes up 17% of the domestic market in 2004, 9% in 2007, 11% in 2011, and 8% in 2013. Discrepancies in the trade data indicate that Indonesia was a recipient of smuggled cigarettes for each year between 1995 and 2012. The value of this illicit trade ranges from less than $1 million to nearly $50 million annually. Singapore, China, and Vietnam together accounted for nearly two-thirds of trade discrepancies over the period. Tax losses due to illicit consumption amount to between Rp 4.1 and 9.3 trillion rupiah, 4% to 13% of tobacco excise Revenue, in 2011 and 2013. Conclusions: Due to the predominance of kretek consumption in Indonesia and Indonesia’s status as the predominant producer of kreteks, illicit domestic production is likely the most important source for illicit cigarettes, and initiatives targeted to combat this illicit production carry the promise of the greatest potential impact. Keyword: Illicit, Kretek, Cigarette, Tax loss, Indonesia
Christopher G Reddick - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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assessing local Government Revenue forecasting techniques
Public Administration and Development, 2004Co-Authors: Christopher G ReddickAbstract:Abstract This article assesses Revenue forecasting techniques that could be used by local Governments. This study is most interested in discerning the extent of use of the causal techniques of deterministic and econometric forecasting. The data used in this study was compiled from an International City/County Managers Association (ICMA) survey of Revenue forecasting techniques used by US local Governments. The results indicate limited use of causal Revenue forecasting of deterministic and econometric methods compared to expert and trend forecasting techniques. This finding could possibly be attributed to the lack of exposure to more advanced causal forecasting techniques that budget officers receive in US public administration programs.
