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Constantin Anghelache - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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The analysis of the quarterly evolution of the Gross Domestic Product in 2019
Theoretical and Applied Economics, 2020Co-Authors: Constantin Anghelache, Ștefan Virgil Iacob, Dana Luiza GrigorescuAbstract:Gross Domestic Product is the most complex indicator of the results of a country. According to the methodology of the national accounts system, it is calculated quarterly and annually. The quarterly calculation of the Gross Domestic Product plays an important role both in establishing the situation at one time of the national economy's outcome, but also in obtaining accurate information about how the national economy has evolved and how it will evolve in the future. The analysis of the Quarterly Gross Domestic Product in 2019 showed an increase compared to the same quarter of the previous year 2018, as compared to the previous quarter. It has been found that overall in the third quarter the activity is a bit slower, i.e. the results are weaker, this probably taking into account the seasonal character of some activities marked during the summer holidays and many others. The analysis of the evolution of the Quarterly Gross Domestic Product was made on the basis of raw data series, but also on the basis of seasonally adjusted data series according to the number of days worked. The results are somewhat close and show an increase of the Gross Domestic Product in the last three years, reaching the end of 2019 to register a provisional increase of the Gross Domestic Product by 4.1%, compared to December or 2018. The analysis also expanded on how resources and uses contributed to the formation and growth of the Gross Domestic Product in each quarter and then annually. Some components of the resources and uses that had a negative effect were highlighted during the analysis, by increasing the price index on the results obtained within the national economy. The analysis reveals a particular model of interpretation and quarterly study, which needs to be carried out in order to identify the stage in which the evolution of the economic activity is and the effect that the measures taken by the authorities in the national development programs have.
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Complex Analysis Of Gross Domestic Product At The End Of 2017
Romanian Statistical Review Supplement, 2018Co-Authors: Constantin Anghelache, Madalina-gabriela Anghel, Andreea Ioana Marinescu, Stefan Gabriel DumbravaAbstract:The Gross Domestic Product is the most tangible indicator of country results and it expresses how national resources were used over a one-year period. Following the economic-financial crisis, which was very acute in Romania in 2007-2009, an economic recovery process started. Year-on-year, quarter-on-quarter, the results were more and more consistent. In this article we do not have the problem to look at how to grow the Gross Domestic Product, but we will highlight the evolution that was recorded especially in 2017. After a year with good results in 2016, 2017 started with sustained achievements. These are either calculated according to the previous quarter or against the same period of the previous year, showing an increase from one quarter to the next. Also, regardless of whether we analyze the Gross series or the seasonally adjusted series, the results in 2017 are close in terms of rhythm growth. We know that Gross Domestic Product is calculated on the basis of initial data, then the semi-definitive version and, finally, the varied final. From a methodological point of view, three steps are necessary to be able to record all data, eliminate errors and make estimates for the most recent data so that they are consistent with the level recorded.In 2017, the Gross Domestic Product has risen from one period to the next, from 2015, and until this year, in the analyzed scenarios, there is no quarter in which we can see either a fall in the previous year or the of the previous quarter. The sustained rhythm shows that in 2015 growth was 4%, in 2016 4.8% and now in 2017 6.9% when comparing Gross series data or 7% when calculating the seasonally adjusted series. Gross Domestic Product growth, driven primarily by consumption, is a positive step, but it needs to be further strengthened by moving to increase this indicator on both consumption and investment. By creating these prerequisites, we can anticipate a sustained growth of the Gross Domestic Product guaranteed for the next period, by achieving, in a higher percentage of Domestic investments, foreign direct investment and access to community funds.
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Study on the Historical Evolution of Gross Domestic Product in Romania
Romanian Statistical Review Supplement, 2018Co-Authors: Constantin Anghelache, Madalina-gabriela Anghel, Andreea Ioana Marinescu, Maria Mirea, Alexandra PetreAbstract:Gross Domestic Product has always been the most comprehensive indicator of the results of a country’s economy over a given period of time. In a certain period, that of the stagnated economy in 1945 (1947) and until 1989, this macroeconomic indicator was called the global social Product. The social Product was nothing but the Gross result registered by the Romanian economy, as it is to a certain extent, with small differences, the Gross Domestic Product. The Social Producer Indicator or Gross Domestic Product Indicator has national relevance to present the final results, with some differences depending on the concept in which these indicators are calculated. Thus, the total social Product is calculated in the concept of material Production in the sense that Gross added value brings only the activity of material Production, and not other services that are not directly related to material Production. Gross Domestic Product is a much more complex, more synthetic and realistic indicator of the results achieved by the economy of a country. Thus, Gross Domestic Product is based on the fact that it aggregates any Gross value added that is made in the territory of a country or by the economic agents of a country in the country and abroad in a period of time, regardless of whether it is made in the material Production of goods or services. In fact, in the level of evolution of a country the weight of services is becoming more and more important because they are meant to ensure a fuller satisfaction of the needs of the country’s population. And in the period when in Romania the social-economic system was super-staged, there was a system of correlative tables on the international level to ensure the comparability of the indicators, which the United Nations statistics body emphasized. In this context, the authors analyze in this article the stage where the methodology for calculating the macroeconomic indicators of results has evolved, regardless of whether it was called total social Product or Gross Domestic Product. There are presented tables and graphs that attest the level of achievement of the successive periods Romania has also experienced in its historical socio-economic evolution.
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Analysis of the evolution of Gross Domestic Product in real terms
Romanian Statistical Review Supplement, 2017Co-Authors: Constantin Anghelache, Aurelian Diaconu, Zoica Nicola, Tudor Samson, Radu Stoica, Emilia StanciuAbstract:In this paper, the authors have assumed to analyze the evolution of the Gross Domestic Product in real terms, during the period 2000-2016. The accent is placed on a more detailed study for the lase three years (2014-2016), to forecast the evolution for the following period. The authors have used structural analysis, by resources and uses, of the Gross Domestic Product, to emphasize, based on value indices, the contribution of each branch (resource) or use. There are used absolute and relative data, and a chronological study is made, based on corresponding indices. Conclusions were expressed, on the basis of datasets, Gross or seasonally adjusted series. Of course, data for the year 2016 are presented as provisional series, they are to be corrected in the subsequent periods, according to the methodology used in the calculation and value expression of this synthetic indicator of results of Romania. Within the study, there were used data provided by the National Institute of Statistics, and also, some aspects included in analyses made by other specialized institutions.
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Comparative study of the evolution of the Gross Domestic Product indicator
Romanian Statistical Review Supplement, 2016Co-Authors: Constantin Anghelache, Andreea Ioana Marinescu, Aurelian Diaconu, Marius PopoviciAbstract:In this paper, the authors realize a comparative study on the dynamics of the Gross Domestic Product of Romania. This indicator reveals the qualitative and quantitative results that characterize the economy of a country. In the paper, time-based and space-based comparisons are realized, with emphasis on the evolutions recorded in the European Union countries. The interpretation of the indicators analyzed is completed by a coherent set of measures proposed for the development of the Romanian economy.
M Akamba - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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The Impact of Exchange Rate and Unemployment Rate on the Real Gross Domestic Product Growth Rate in Ghana
Journal of economics and sustainable development, 2019Co-Authors: P Teye, Y Luu, M AkambaAbstract:Unemployment Rate and Exchange Rate are perhaps the two most important challenges that face the Ghanaian economy in recent time. This study seeks to examine the effect of the Exchange Rate and Unemployment Rate on the Real Gross Domestic Product Growth Rate in Ghana. The study used secondary data collected from World Bank, International Labour Organization and International Monetary Fund covering the period 1999–2018. Real Exchange Rate and Unemployment Rate were the independent variables whilst Real Gross Domestic Product Growth Rate was the dependent variable. The findings of the study were arrived at using the quantitative research method. The extent and nature of relationship between the various variables under study were identified using Pearson correlation, regression and hypotheses. The study found out that Unemployment Rate exhibited insignificant negative relationship towards Real Gross Domestic Product Growth Rate, while Real Exchange Rate was positive and also insignificant relationship on Real Gross Domestic Product Growth Rate. Based on the linearity of the multiple linear regression model, the independent variables contribute to 15.0% of the overall LN_GDP. The study then concludes that based on the effect of Exchange Rate and Unemployment Rate on RGDPGR in the findings, Government and other stakeholders should take steps such as creating new local industries and factories, and invest in existing ones to increase Domestic produce which will in turn decrease Unemployment Rate and increase Exchange Rate. Keywords: Gross Domestic Product, Unemployment Rate, Exchange Rate, Pearson correlation, Linear Regression. DOI : 10.7176/JESD/10-18-15 Publication date :September 30 th 2019
Luciano Pietronero - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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A dynamical systems approach to Gross Domestic Product forecasting
Nature Physics, 2018Co-Authors: Andrea Tacchella, Dario Mazzilli, Luciano PietroneroAbstract:Models developed for Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth forecasting tend to be extremely complex, relying on a large number of variables and parameters. Such complexity is not always to the benefit of the accuracy of the forecast. Economic complexity constitutes a framework that builds on methods developed for the study of complex systems to construct approaches that are less demanding than standard macroeconomic ones in terms of data requirements, but whose accuracy remains to be systematically benchmarked. Here we develop a forecasting scheme that is shown to outperform the accuracy of the five-year forecast issued by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) by more than 25% on the available data. The model is based on effectively representing economic growth as a two-dimensional dynamical system, defined by GDP per capita and ‘fitness’, a variable computed using only publicly available Product-level export data. We show that forecasting errors produced by the method are generally predictable and are also uncorrelated to IMF errors, suggesting that our method is extracting information that is complementary to standard approaches. We believe that our findings are of a very general nature and we plan to extend our validations on larger datasets in future works. Inspired to methods developed for the study of complex systems, a framework for predicting Gross Domestic Product growth outperforms the accuracy of the five-year forecast of the International Monetary Fund.
Richard W England - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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measurement of social well being alternatives to Gross Domestic Product
Ecological Economics, 1998Co-Authors: Richard W EnglandAbstract:Abstract Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is widely acknowledged to be a poor measure of social well-being. This paper surveys several substitutes for and modifications of GDP which have been offered as measures of society's welfare. The Index of Sustainable Economic Welfare, a measure endorsed by many ecological economists, is found to possess a variety of virtues — but also several imperfections. The search for a social welfare measure has not yet ended.
Andreea Ioana Marinescu - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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Complex Analysis Of Gross Domestic Product At The End Of 2017
Romanian Statistical Review Supplement, 2018Co-Authors: Constantin Anghelache, Madalina-gabriela Anghel, Andreea Ioana Marinescu, Stefan Gabriel DumbravaAbstract:The Gross Domestic Product is the most tangible indicator of country results and it expresses how national resources were used over a one-year period. Following the economic-financial crisis, which was very acute in Romania in 2007-2009, an economic recovery process started. Year-on-year, quarter-on-quarter, the results were more and more consistent. In this article we do not have the problem to look at how to grow the Gross Domestic Product, but we will highlight the evolution that was recorded especially in 2017. After a year with good results in 2016, 2017 started with sustained achievements. These are either calculated according to the previous quarter or against the same period of the previous year, showing an increase from one quarter to the next. Also, regardless of whether we analyze the Gross series or the seasonally adjusted series, the results in 2017 are close in terms of rhythm growth. We know that Gross Domestic Product is calculated on the basis of initial data, then the semi-definitive version and, finally, the varied final. From a methodological point of view, three steps are necessary to be able to record all data, eliminate errors and make estimates for the most recent data so that they are consistent with the level recorded.In 2017, the Gross Domestic Product has risen from one period to the next, from 2015, and until this year, in the analyzed scenarios, there is no quarter in which we can see either a fall in the previous year or the of the previous quarter. The sustained rhythm shows that in 2015 growth was 4%, in 2016 4.8% and now in 2017 6.9% when comparing Gross series data or 7% when calculating the seasonally adjusted series. Gross Domestic Product growth, driven primarily by consumption, is a positive step, but it needs to be further strengthened by moving to increase this indicator on both consumption and investment. By creating these prerequisites, we can anticipate a sustained growth of the Gross Domestic Product guaranteed for the next period, by achieving, in a higher percentage of Domestic investments, foreign direct investment and access to community funds.
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Study on the Historical Evolution of Gross Domestic Product in Romania
Romanian Statistical Review Supplement, 2018Co-Authors: Constantin Anghelache, Madalina-gabriela Anghel, Andreea Ioana Marinescu, Maria Mirea, Alexandra PetreAbstract:Gross Domestic Product has always been the most comprehensive indicator of the results of a country’s economy over a given period of time. In a certain period, that of the stagnated economy in 1945 (1947) and until 1989, this macroeconomic indicator was called the global social Product. The social Product was nothing but the Gross result registered by the Romanian economy, as it is to a certain extent, with small differences, the Gross Domestic Product. The Social Producer Indicator or Gross Domestic Product Indicator has national relevance to present the final results, with some differences depending on the concept in which these indicators are calculated. Thus, the total social Product is calculated in the concept of material Production in the sense that Gross added value brings only the activity of material Production, and not other services that are not directly related to material Production. Gross Domestic Product is a much more complex, more synthetic and realistic indicator of the results achieved by the economy of a country. Thus, Gross Domestic Product is based on the fact that it aggregates any Gross value added that is made in the territory of a country or by the economic agents of a country in the country and abroad in a period of time, regardless of whether it is made in the material Production of goods or services. In fact, in the level of evolution of a country the weight of services is becoming more and more important because they are meant to ensure a fuller satisfaction of the needs of the country’s population. And in the period when in Romania the social-economic system was super-staged, there was a system of correlative tables on the international level to ensure the comparability of the indicators, which the United Nations statistics body emphasized. In this context, the authors analyze in this article the stage where the methodology for calculating the macroeconomic indicators of results has evolved, regardless of whether it was called total social Product or Gross Domestic Product. There are presented tables and graphs that attest the level of achievement of the successive periods Romania has also experienced in its historical socio-economic evolution.
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ECONOMETRIC MODEL FOR THE ANALYSIS OF THE CORRELATION BETWEEN THE INFLATION RATE AND THE Gross Domestic Product
Romanian Statistical Review Supplement, 2017Co-Authors: Andreea Ioana MarinescuAbstract:The economic growth is based on increasing the results of economic activity at a macroeconomic level. This is measured by the growth rate of macroeconomic indicators such as Gross Domestic Product, Gross national Product and national income. The Gross Domestic Product is the most commonly used indicator for measuring the output of an economy. It clearly reflects the size of an economy, while Gross Domestic Product per capita illustrates changes in living standards over time. The Gross Domestic Product growth rate is probably the most important indicator of economic growth. Given its complexity, this indicator depends on a number of factors. These factors include capital, human resources, Productivity and inflation rate. Taking into account that the evolution of Gross Domestic Product reflects an economic growth, it is interesting to see which are the main methods that are able to increase it. Thus, we can talk about stimulating/increasing consumption the collected tax rate increases, thus increasing the income to the state budget. Another method is to increase the level of investment that can be achieved by accessing European funds, which is currently quite low in Romania, and by attracting foreign capital. In order to ensure a positive evolution of Gross Domestic Product, it is important to keep inflation as low as possible.
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Comparative study of the evolution of the Gross Domestic Product indicator
Romanian Statistical Review Supplement, 2016Co-Authors: Constantin Anghelache, Andreea Ioana Marinescu, Aurelian Diaconu, Marius PopoviciAbstract:In this paper, the authors realize a comparative study on the dynamics of the Gross Domestic Product of Romania. This indicator reveals the qualitative and quantitative results that characterize the economy of a country. In the paper, time-based and space-based comparisons are realized, with emphasis on the evolutions recorded in the European Union countries. The interpretation of the indicators analyzed is completed by a coherent set of measures proposed for the development of the Romanian economy.
