Hazard Study

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Dimitrios Vamvatsikos - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.

  • Seismic risk and loss estimation for the building stock in Isfahan: part II—Hazard analysis and risk assessment
    Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering, 2021
    Co-Authors: Mohsen Kohrangi, Paolo Bazzurro, Dimitrios Vamvatsikos
    Abstract:

    The second part of a seismic risk assessment Study for the Iranian city of Isfahan is presented, focusing on the description of the Hazard, the risk analysis, and the discussion of the results. This Study utilizes the building exposure model, the fragility and the vulnerability curves illustrated in the companion paper. The earthquake occurrence source model adopted is based on the EMME14 Hazard Study. The site effects accounting for the soil nonlinear behavior are modeled by means of a Vs _30 map derived from the topographical slope. The validity of this map is tested based on the local surface geology and geotechnical reports. The probabilistic seismic Hazard maps for different return periods that account for site effects are generated and compared with the design spectra mandated by the Iranian national seismic design code. In addition, direct seismic monetary and human losses are estimated for two earthquake scenarios and also for 100- and 475-year return periods. We show loss maps and loss curves, offering insights on the most vulnerable building classes and the spatial distribution of the estimated losses. The results provide a basis for pre- and post-disaster emergency planning, for global and local urban planning, as well as for conceiving adequate risk mitigation strategies including devising fair earthquake insurance policies. This Study may also serve as a blueprint for carrying out similar work in other urban areas of the Middle East.

Mariusz Sojka - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.

  • Assessment of the Impact of New Investments on Flood Hazard-Study Case: The Bridge on the Warta River near Wronki
    Water, 2015
    Co-Authors: Tomasz Dysarz, Joanna Wicher-dysarz, Mariusz Sojka
    Abstract:

    The main concern of the Study was the evaluation of the impact of new investment in road infrastructure on the flood Hazard. The flood Hazard is considered here on the basis of maps according to requirements of EU Flood Directive. The analyses presented were made for the Warta river, near the town of Wronki. The procedure included data collection and processing, model configuration, hydraulic simulation, generation of water surface profiles, and flood Hazard maps. The ArcGIS tools, as well as HEC-RAS package, were used in this research. The model recalibration described in the paper provided excellent results according to independent criteria. Hence, the results obtained may be considered as valid. Finally the results reconstructing the conditions with and without the bridge are compared. The assessed impact of the bridge seems to be moderate, but the procedure proposed in the presented paper may be of wider application. In view of the EU Flood Directive and plans for investments in road infrastructure, the methodology presented seems very attractive.

Barbaros Çetiner - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.

  • Site specific response analysis for performance based design earthquake characteristics
    Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering, 2014
    Co-Authors: Gökçe Tönük, Atilla Ansal, Aslı Kurtuluş, Barbaros Çetiner
    Abstract:

    During strong earthquakes, seismic waves travelling towards the ground surface alter the engineering characteristics of the soil layers and consequently the characteristics of travelling seismic waves also change with respect to their frequency and amplitude contents. In assessing the site-specific design earthquake characteristics in seismically active zones for performance levels of Collapse Prevention, Life Safety, and Immediate Occupancy that may correspond to 72, 475 and 2475 year return period earthquakes, detailed site characterization and site response analyses may be required. This process may be conducted in two consecutive statistically independent stages. The first stage involves the seismic Hazard Study to assess the design earthquake characteristics on rock outcrop for selected exceedance levels and the second stage involves detailed site characterization and site response analyses to estimate design earthquake characteristics on the ground surface. The uncertainties arising from the source characteristics need to be taken into account by using a representative number of strong motion acceleration records for site response analyses recorded in locations that are compatible with the seismic Hazard with respect to fault mechanism, earthquake magnitude, and source distance. In addition, the strong motion acceleration records should be compatible with respect to peak acceleration and acceleration response spectra levels estimated by the probabilistic or deterministic seismic Hazard Study. One approach is to use the uniform acceleration Hazard spectra and another option is to adopt conditional mean spectrum on rock outcrop estimated in the first stage from the earthquake Hazard Study for scaling input motions for site response analysis. It was observed that the scaling methodology adopted may play an important role in the calculated earthquake characteristics on the ground surface. A semi empirical procedure was proposed to determine the site specific design earthquake characteristics on the ground surface. A parametric Study was conducted to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed methodology based on one dimensional site response analyses using Shake91 and DeepSoil site response codes to evaluate design earthquake characteristics on the ground surface.

Mohsen Kohrangi - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.

  • Seismic risk and loss estimation for the building stock in Isfahan: part II—Hazard analysis and risk assessment
    Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering, 2021
    Co-Authors: Mohsen Kohrangi, Paolo Bazzurro, Dimitrios Vamvatsikos
    Abstract:

    The second part of a seismic risk assessment Study for the Iranian city of Isfahan is presented, focusing on the description of the Hazard, the risk analysis, and the discussion of the results. This Study utilizes the building exposure model, the fragility and the vulnerability curves illustrated in the companion paper. The earthquake occurrence source model adopted is based on the EMME14 Hazard Study. The site effects accounting for the soil nonlinear behavior are modeled by means of a Vs _30 map derived from the topographical slope. The validity of this map is tested based on the local surface geology and geotechnical reports. The probabilistic seismic Hazard maps for different return periods that account for site effects are generated and compared with the design spectra mandated by the Iranian national seismic design code. In addition, direct seismic monetary and human losses are estimated for two earthquake scenarios and also for 100- and 475-year return periods. We show loss maps and loss curves, offering insights on the most vulnerable building classes and the spatial distribution of the estimated losses. The results provide a basis for pre- and post-disaster emergency planning, for global and local urban planning, as well as for conceiving adequate risk mitigation strategies including devising fair earthquake insurance policies. This Study may also serve as a blueprint for carrying out similar work in other urban areas of the Middle East.

Jean-pierre Corriou - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.

  • A priori characterization of criticity and of dynamic thermal behaviour of a storage of cork powder
    Chemical Engineering Research and Design, 2015
    Co-Authors: Zoghlami-Mosrati H., Laurent A., Corriou J.P., Henda Zoghlami-mosrati, Andre Laurent, Jean-pierre Corriou
    Abstract:

    The new dispositions of the recent French law, called “Lois Risques” present some difficulties of application to qualify and quantify the new notion of dynamics of a Hazardous process such as a thermal runaway. Many steady models predicting the thermal runaway (Semenov, Frank–Kamenetskii, Thomas, etc.) are proposed in literature. Due to their simplifying hypotheses, even if these models are widely used, they do not provide any information on the history of the self-heating of the system enabling to predict the necessary time to urgently react to a drift. The analysis of the transient thermal behaviour turns out to be necessary to complete the previous classical results, to estimate the profile of the adiabatic temperature rise and the time of induction for reaching the maximum adiabatic temperature and thus to better characterize the ability of the system to runaway, whose prediction fiability must be presently improved to respond to the new needs of the Hazard Study. The present work shows that the consideration of the influence of temperature on the heat transfer parameters and of more realistic boundary conditions during the numerical solution of the heat balances describing the storage behaviour allows us to better predict the criticity and the dynamics of appearance and of evolution of the runaway concerning the example of a cork storage.