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Rüdiger F. Pohl - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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Hindsight Bias in Political Decision Making
Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Politics, 2019Co-Authors: Rüdiger F. Pohl, Edgar ErdfelderAbstract:Hindsight Bias describes the tendency of persons—after the outcome of an event is known—to overestimate their foresight. For example, following a political election, persons tend to retrospectively adjust their predictions to the actual outcome. These judgment distortions are very robust and have been observed in a variety of domains and tasks. About 50 years of research on Hindsight Bias have meanwhile brought a wealth of findings and insights. Core research questions are (1) how to explain Hindsight Bias in terms of underlying processes, (2) whether there are individual differences in susceptibility, (3) how the Bias possibly impedes decision-making in applied contexts, such as political decision-making, and (4) how possibly to overcome it. Theoretical approaches suggest that there are distinct components of Hindsight Bias, and that several, mainly cognitive, mechanisms are responsible for them. Using stochastic models of Hindsight Bias allows us to estimate the relative proportions of these mechanisms. Depending on the task, motivational factors may also exert their influence. In addition, the strength of Hindsight Bias appears to be related to some personality traits and also to age. For example, some authors found that Hindsight Bias tends to increase with the tendency toward favorable self-presentation and to decrease with intelligence. Moreover, lifespan studies have shown that children and older adults show larger Hindsight Bias than young adults. Hindsight Bias has been found in political decision-making (as well as in other applied domains). Surprisingly, attempts to overcome Hindsight Bias have mainly failed, whereas only a few deBiasing techniques show promising results. In sum, one important conclusion is to be continuously aware of the potentially distorting influence of outcome knowledge on the evaluation of our own (or other’s) prior knowledge state.
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Age Differences in Processes Underlying Hindsight Bias: A Life-Span Study
Journal of Cognition and Development, 2018Co-Authors: Rüdiger F. Pohl, Ute J. Bayen, Nina R. Arnold, Tina-sarah Auer, Claudia MartinAbstract:Hindsight Bias is the tendency to overestimate one’s prior knowledge of a fact or event after learning the actual fact. Recent research has suggested that age-related differences in Hindsight Bias ...
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A multiprocess account of Hindsight Bias in children.
Developmental psychology, 2010Co-Authors: Rüdiger F. Pohl, Ute J. Bayen, Claudia MartinAbstract:In Hindsight, that is, after receiving the correct answers to difficult questions, people's recall of their own prior answers tends to be Biased toward the correct answers. We tested 139 participants from 3 age groups (9- and 12-year-olds and adults) in a Hindsight-Bias paradigm and found that all groups showed Hindsight Bias. Multinomial model-based analyses indicated that all age groups used the correct answers to reconstruct their original answers. In addition, the youngest group showed memory impairment caused by the presentation of the correct answers as well as an increased belief that they knew the correct answers all along. These results support a multiprocess explanation of Hindsight Bias in children.
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ways to assess Hindsight Bias
Social Cognition, 2007Co-Authors: Rüdiger F. PohlAbstract:Hindsight Bias is a robust phenomenon; it has been found with different designs, materials, and measures. However, several methodological problems may hinder an adequate analysis and interpretation of results obtained in experimental studies of the effect. This article therefore systematizes and critically discusses relevant features of designs, materials, and types of feedback, as well as different operationalizations and indices of Hindsight Bias. In particular, the potential confound of recollection and reconstruction, which may lead to inadequate theoretical conclusions, is addressed.
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Hindsight Bias Across the Life Span
Social Cognition, 2007Co-Authors: Ute J. Bayen, Rüdiger F. Pohl, Edgar Erdfelder, Tina-sarah AuerAbstract:The authors review the current state of developmental research on Hindsight Bias. In research on cognitive development in children as well as in cognitive–aging research, studies on Hindsight Bias are rare. The few existing studies indicate that children and older adults show stronger Hindsight Bias than young adults. The authors show commonalities and differences in Hindsight Bias studies in the child development and aging literatures, and suggest venues for future research toward a life span perspective on the development of Hindsight Bias. Special emphasis is given to the potential of theories developed for other retroactive–interference paradigms to help explain age differences in Hindsight Bias. Methodological challenges in investigating the development of Hindsight Bias are also discussed.
Daniel M. Bernstein - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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Metacognitive Hindsight Bias
Memory & Cognition, 2020Co-Authors: Rakefet Ackerman, Daniel M. Bernstein, Ragav KumarAbstract:Hindsight Bias (HB) is the tendency to see known information as obvious. We studied metacognitive Hindsight Bias (MC-HB)—a shift away from one’s original confidence regarding answers provided before learning the actual facts. In two experiments, participants answered general-knowledge questions in social scenarios and provided their confidence in each answer. Subsequently, they learned answers to half the questions and then recalled their initial answers and confidence. Finally, they reanswered, as a learning check. We measured confidence accuracy by calibration (over/underconfidence) and resolution (discrimination between incorrect and correct answers), expecting them to improve in Hindsight. In both experiments, participants displayed robust HB and MC-HB for resolution despite attempts to recall the initial confidence in one’s answer. In Experiment 2 , promising anonymity to participants eliminated MC-HB, while social scenarios produced MC-HB for both resolution and calibration—indicative of overconfidence. Overall, our findings highlight that in social contexts, recall of confidence in Hindsight is more consistent with answers’ accuracy than confidence initially was. Social scenarios differently affect HB and MC-HB, thus dissociating these two Biases.
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Fluency misattribution and auditory Hindsight Bias.
Memory & cognition, 2018Co-Authors: Daniel M. Bernstein, Ragav Kumar, Michael E. J. Masson, Daniel J. LevitinAbstract:We conducted three experiments to test the fluency-misattribution account of auditory Hindsight Bias. According to this account, prior exposure to a clearly presented auditory stimulus produces fluent (improved) processing of a distorted version of that stimulus, which results in participants mistakenly rating that item as easy to identify. In all experiments, participants in an exposure phase heard clearly spoken words zero, one, three, or six times. In the test phase, we examined auditory Hindsight Bias by manipulating whether participants heard a clear version of a target word just prior to hearing the distorted version of that word. Participants then estimated the ability of naive peers to identify the distorted word. Auditory Hindsight Bias and the number of priming presentations during the exposure phase interacted underadditively in their prediction of participants' estimates: When no clear version of the target word appeared prior to the distorted version of that word in the test phase, participants identified target words more often the more frequently they heard the clear word in the exposure phase. Conversely, hearing a clear version of the target word at test produced similar estimates, regardless of the number of times participants heard clear versions of those words during the exposure phase. As per Roberts and Sternberg's (Attention and Performance XIV, pp. 611-653, 1993) additive factors logic, this finding suggests that both auditory Hindsight Bias and repetition priming contribute to a common process, which we propose involves a misattribution of processing fluency. We conclude that misattribution of fluency accounts for auditory Hindsight Bias.
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Auditory Hindsight Bias: Fluency misattribution versus memory reconstruction
Journal of experimental psychology. Human perception and performance, 2017Co-Authors: Philip A. Higham, Greg J. Neil, Daniel M. BernsteinAbstract:We report 4 experiments investigating auditory Hindsight Bias – the tendency to overestimate the intelligibility of distorted auditory stimuli after learning their identity. An associative priming manipulation was used to vary the amount of processing fluency independently of prior target knowledge. For hypothetical designs, in which Hindsight judgments are made for peers in foresight, we predicted that judgments would be based on processing fluency and that Hindsight Bias would be greater in the unrelated- compared to related-prime context (differential-fluency hypothesis). Conversely, for memory designs, in which foresight judgments are remembered in Hindsight, we predicted that judgments would be based on memory reconstruction and that there would be independent effects of prime relatedness and prior target knowledge (recollection hypothesis). These predictions were confirmed. Specifically, we found support for the differential-fluency hypothesis when a hypothetical design was used in Experiments 1 and 2 (hypothetical group). Conversely, when a memory design was used in Experiments 2 (memory group), 3A and 3B, we found support for the recollection hypothesis. Together, the results suggest that qualitatively different mechanisms create Hindsight Bias in the two designs. The results are discussed in terms of fluency misattributions, memory reconstruction, anchoring-and-adjustment, sense making, and a multi-component model of Hindsight Bias.
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Hindsight Bias and Law
Zeitschrift für Psychologie, 2016Co-Authors: Megan E. Giroux, Patricia I. Coburn, Erin M. Harley, Deborah A. Connolly, Daniel M. BernsteinAbstract:Abstract. Hindsight Bias is the tendency to overestimate the foreseeability of an outcome once it is known. This Bias has implications for decisions made within the legal system, ranging from judgments made during investigations to those in court proceedings. Legal decision makers should only consider what was known at the time an investigation was conducted or an offense was committed; however, they often review cases with full knowledge of a negative outcome, which can affect their judgments about what was knowable in the past. We conducted a systematic review of the literature on Hindsight Bias and law. We present five areas of law that Hindsight Bias affects (medical malpractice, forensic investigation, negligence, patent, criminal), two types of evidence that may lead to Hindsight Bias (visual and auditory evidence), and Hindsight Bias in experts and judges. Finally, we discuss strategies for reducing Hindsight Bias in legal decisions and recommend future research.
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Looking Backward and Forward on Hindsight Bias
Oxford Handbooks Online, 2015Co-Authors: Daniel M. Bernstein, André Aßfalg, Ragav Kumar, Rakefet AckermanAbstract:The same event that appeared unpredictable in foresight can be judged as predictable in Hindsight. Hindsight Bias clouds judgments in all areas of life, including legal decisions, medical diagnoses, consumer satisfaction, sporting events, and election outcomes. We discuss three theoretical constructs related to Hindsight Bias: memory, reconstruction Bias, and motivation. Attempts to recall foresight knowledge fail because newly acquired knowledge affects memory either directly or indirectly by Biasing attempts to reconstruct foresight knowledge. On a metacognitive level, overconfidence and surprise contribute to Hindsight Bias. Overconfidence in knowledge increases Hindsight Bias whereas a well-calibrated confidence reduces Hindsight Bias. Motivational factors also contribute to Hindsight Bias by making positive and negative outcomes appear more or less likely, depending on a variety of factors. We review Hindsight Bias theories and discuss three exciting directions for future research.
Claudia Martin - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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Age Differences in Processes Underlying Hindsight Bias: A Life-Span Study
Journal of Cognition and Development, 2018Co-Authors: Rüdiger F. Pohl, Ute J. Bayen, Nina R. Arnold, Tina-sarah Auer, Claudia MartinAbstract:Hindsight Bias is the tendency to overestimate one’s prior knowledge of a fact or event after learning the actual fact. Recent research has suggested that age-related differences in Hindsight Bias ...
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A multiprocess account of Hindsight Bias in children.
Developmental psychology, 2010Co-Authors: Rüdiger F. Pohl, Ute J. Bayen, Claudia MartinAbstract:In Hindsight, that is, after receiving the correct answers to difficult questions, people's recall of their own prior answers tends to be Biased toward the correct answers. We tested 139 participants from 3 age groups (9- and 12-year-olds and adults) in a Hindsight-Bias paradigm and found that all groups showed Hindsight Bias. Multinomial model-based analyses indicated that all age groups used the correct answers to reconstruct their original answers. In addition, the youngest group showed memory impairment caused by the presentation of the correct answers as well as an increased belief that they knew the correct answers all along. These results support a multiprocess explanation of Hindsight Bias in children.
Steffen Nestler - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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deBiasing media articles reducing Hindsight Bias in the production of written work
Journal of applied research in memory and cognition, 2021Co-Authors: Marcel Meuer, Aileen Oeberst, Steffen NestlerAbstract:Written work such as Wikipedia articles can contain Hindsight Bias. Since reading Biased texts can, in turn, increase recipients’ individual Hindsight Bias, it is an important agenda to examine effective deBiasing strategies. In the present study (N = 164), we tested whether providing authors with deBiasing strategies can effectively reduce Hindsight Bias in their content. Specifically, participants wrote an article based on several newspaper articles about a dam and we manipulated whether they received event knowledge (i.e., dam collapse) and a deBiasing intervention. Ten blind coders rated the extent to which the produced articles were suggestive of the disaster. DeBiasing was successful in reducing both author and article Hindsight Bias when provided before writing. However, it had no effect when applied to encourage a revision process after writing. We thus argue that implementing pre-writing deBiasing in the field may be an important way to reduce collective Hindsight Bias.
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DeBiasing Media Articles – Reducing Hindsight Bias in the Production of Written Work
Journal of Applied Research in Memory and Cognition, 2021Co-Authors: Marcel Meuer, Steffen Nestler, Aileen OeberstAbstract:Written work such as Wikipedia articles can contain Hindsight Bias. Since reading Biased texts can, in turn, increase recipients’ individual Hindsight Bias, it is an important agenda to examine effective deBiasing strategies. In the present study (N = 164), we tested whether providing authors with deBiasing strategies can effectively reduce Hindsight Bias in their content. Specifically, participants wrote an article based on several newspaper articles about a dam and we manipulated whether they received event knowledge (i.e., dam collapse) and a deBiasing intervention. Ten blind coders rated the extent to which the produced articles were suggestive of the disaster. DeBiasing was successful in reducing both author and article Hindsight Bias when provided before writing. However, it had no effect when applied to encourage a revision process after writing. We thus argue that implementing pre-writing deBiasing in the field may be an important way to reduce collective Hindsight Bias.
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Wikipedia outperforms individuals when it comes to Hindsight Bias
Psychological Research, 2019Co-Authors: Aileen Oeberst, Ina Beck, Ulrike Cress, Steffen NestlerAbstract:Hindsight Bias—the tendency to overestimate in Hindsight what one knew in foresight—is a robust and pervasive human error. A recent study with Wikipedia articles, however, found evidence for a Hindsight Bias only for disasters but not for any other event category (e.g., elections). Although this might suggest Wikipedia articles to be less Biased than individuals, alternative explanations had not been ruled out. The present study set out to answer this question by comparing individuals’ and Wikipedia’s representation of the very same event in foresight and Hindsight. In particular, we made use of a state election and surveyed one part of participants before and after the outcome and had other participants rate the corresponding Wikipedia article versions with regard to the extent to which the article was suggestive of a particular outcome and presented it as foreseeable and inevitable. In line with prior research and our hypotheses, we found a Hindsight Bias at the individual level but not in Wikipedia articles. Applying Bayesian statistics, there was substantial support for the null hypothesis (i.e., no Hindsight Bias) in Wikipedia. By controlling for the potential impact of participants’ own Hindsight Bias on their article ratings we can rule out alternative explanations of our findings. Therefore, our findings are the first to demonstrate Wikipedia’s superiority over individuals when it comes to Hindsight Bias.
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cultural interpretations of global information Hindsight Bias after reading wikipedia articles across cultures
Applied Cognitive Psychology, 2017Co-Authors: Ina Von Der Beck, Aileen Oeberst, Ulrike Cress, Steffen NestlerAbstract:Summary: Hindsight Bias is the mistaken belief that an outcome could have been foreseen once it is known. But what happens after learning about an event? Can reading Biased media amplify Hindsight distortions? And do people from different cultural backgrounds — with different cognitive thinking styles — draw equal conclusions from equal media reports? We report two studies with Wikipedia articles and samples from different cultures (Study 1: Germany, Singapore, USA, Vietnam, Japan, Sweden, N = 446; Study 2: USA, Vietnam, N = 144). Participants read one of two article versions (foresight and Hindsight) about the Fukushima Nuclear Plant and estimated the likelihood, inevitability, and foreseeability of the nuclear disaster. Reading the Hindsight article increased individuals' Hindsight Bias independently of analytic or holistic thinking style. Having excluded survey language as potential impact factor (Study 2), this result remains. Our findings extend prior research on Hindsight Bias by demonstrating the amplifying effect of additional (Biased) information on Hindsight Bias. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
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Increased or reversed? The effect of surprise on Hindsight Bias depends on the Hindsight component.
Journal of experimental psychology. Learning memory and cognition, 2009Co-Authors: Steffen Nestler, Boris EgloffAbstract:Two diverging hypotheses concerning the influence of surprising events on Hindsight effects have been proposed: Although some authors believe that surprising events lead to a reversal of Hindsight Bias, others have proposed that surprise increases Hindsight Bias. Drawing on the separate-components view of the Hindsight Bias (which argues that Hindsight Bias consists of 3 independent components: memory distortions, impressions of inevitability and impressions of foreseeability), we reconcile these 2 perspectives by relating them to foreseeability and inevitability. Specifically, we assume that reversals in Hindsight Bias are to be found when foreseeability is considered, and increases in Hindsight Bias are found when inevitability is considered. To test these assumptions, we arranged for participants to learn about a highly surprising outcome and subsequently judge its foreseeability and inevitability. Results were consistent with our hypotheses: Participants perceived a highly surprising but explainable outcome to be both more inevitable and less foreseeable than participants who did not received outcome information. On the basis of experimentally induced dissociations between Hindsight components, the present results thus strongly support the separate-components view of the Hindsight Bias.
Aileen Oeberst - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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deBiasing media articles reducing Hindsight Bias in the production of written work
Journal of applied research in memory and cognition, 2021Co-Authors: Marcel Meuer, Aileen Oeberst, Steffen NestlerAbstract:Written work such as Wikipedia articles can contain Hindsight Bias. Since reading Biased texts can, in turn, increase recipients’ individual Hindsight Bias, it is an important agenda to examine effective deBiasing strategies. In the present study (N = 164), we tested whether providing authors with deBiasing strategies can effectively reduce Hindsight Bias in their content. Specifically, participants wrote an article based on several newspaper articles about a dam and we manipulated whether they received event knowledge (i.e., dam collapse) and a deBiasing intervention. Ten blind coders rated the extent to which the produced articles were suggestive of the disaster. DeBiasing was successful in reducing both author and article Hindsight Bias when provided before writing. However, it had no effect when applied to encourage a revision process after writing. We thus argue that implementing pre-writing deBiasing in the field may be an important way to reduce collective Hindsight Bias.
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DeBiasing Media Articles – Reducing Hindsight Bias in the Production of Written Work
Journal of Applied Research in Memory and Cognition, 2021Co-Authors: Marcel Meuer, Steffen Nestler, Aileen OeberstAbstract:Written work such as Wikipedia articles can contain Hindsight Bias. Since reading Biased texts can, in turn, increase recipients’ individual Hindsight Bias, it is an important agenda to examine effective deBiasing strategies. In the present study (N = 164), we tested whether providing authors with deBiasing strategies can effectively reduce Hindsight Bias in their content. Specifically, participants wrote an article based on several newspaper articles about a dam and we manipulated whether they received event knowledge (i.e., dam collapse) and a deBiasing intervention. Ten blind coders rated the extent to which the produced articles were suggestive of the disaster. DeBiasing was successful in reducing both author and article Hindsight Bias when provided before writing. However, it had no effect when applied to encourage a revision process after writing. We thus argue that implementing pre-writing deBiasing in the field may be an important way to reduce collective Hindsight Bias.
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Wikipedia outperforms individuals when it comes to Hindsight Bias
Psychological Research, 2019Co-Authors: Aileen Oeberst, Ina Beck, Ulrike Cress, Steffen NestlerAbstract:Hindsight Bias—the tendency to overestimate in Hindsight what one knew in foresight—is a robust and pervasive human error. A recent study with Wikipedia articles, however, found evidence for a Hindsight Bias only for disasters but not for any other event category (e.g., elections). Although this might suggest Wikipedia articles to be less Biased than individuals, alternative explanations had not been ruled out. The present study set out to answer this question by comparing individuals’ and Wikipedia’s representation of the very same event in foresight and Hindsight. In particular, we made use of a state election and surveyed one part of participants before and after the outcome and had other participants rate the corresponding Wikipedia article versions with regard to the extent to which the article was suggestive of a particular outcome and presented it as foreseeable and inevitable. In line with prior research and our hypotheses, we found a Hindsight Bias at the individual level but not in Wikipedia articles. Applying Bayesian statistics, there was substantial support for the null hypothesis (i.e., no Hindsight Bias) in Wikipedia. By controlling for the potential impact of participants’ own Hindsight Bias on their article ratings we can rule out alternative explanations of our findings. Therefore, our findings are the first to demonstrate Wikipedia’s superiority over individuals when it comes to Hindsight Bias.
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Is there Hindsight Bias without real Hindsight? Conjectures are sufficient to elicit Hindsight Bias.
Journal of experimental psychology. Applied, 2018Co-Authors: Ina Von Der Beck, Ulrike Cress, Aileen OeberstAbstract:After learning about an event, people often mistakenly believe to have predicted what happened all along (Hindsight Bias). However, what if what has happened is not known, but subject to conjecture? Could conjectures, in the absence of knowledge about the event, elicit the same Bias and make people believe they "conjectured it all along", too? We examined this question in 2 studies. Immediately after the disappearance of flight MH370 in March, 2014, we asked N = 432 individuals about the likelihood of a number of possible events. One year later, N = 100 of these individuals participated again and were randomly assigned to 2 experimental conditions. Participants in the current conjecture group answered the same questions from their current perspective, participants in the reproduced conjecture group were asked to reproduce their earlier estimates. Results show that conjectures had changed over time and affected participants' reproductions of their earlier estimates. We replicated this finding in a controlled lab experiment (N = 94) and found a comparable magnitude of conjecture-based and knowledge-based Hindsight Bias. These findings demonstrate Hindsight distortions in the absence of definite knowledge and extend theoretical assumptions about the prerequisites of Hindsight Bias in the context of events. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2019 APA, all rights reserved).
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cultural interpretations of global information Hindsight Bias after reading wikipedia articles across cultures
Applied Cognitive Psychology, 2017Co-Authors: Ina Von Der Beck, Aileen Oeberst, Ulrike Cress, Steffen NestlerAbstract:Summary: Hindsight Bias is the mistaken belief that an outcome could have been foreseen once it is known. But what happens after learning about an event? Can reading Biased media amplify Hindsight distortions? And do people from different cultural backgrounds — with different cognitive thinking styles — draw equal conclusions from equal media reports? We report two studies with Wikipedia articles and samples from different cultures (Study 1: Germany, Singapore, USA, Vietnam, Japan, Sweden, N = 446; Study 2: USA, Vietnam, N = 144). Participants read one of two article versions (foresight and Hindsight) about the Fukushima Nuclear Plant and estimated the likelihood, inevitability, and foreseeability of the nuclear disaster. Reading the Hindsight article increased individuals' Hindsight Bias independently of analytic or holistic thinking style. Having excluded survey language as potential impact factor (Study 2), this result remains. Our findings extend prior research on Hindsight Bias by demonstrating the amplifying effect of additional (Biased) information on Hindsight Bias. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
