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Vladimir Mau - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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post communist russia in post Industrial world elements of catching up policy
Published Papers, 2003Co-Authors: Vladimir MauAbstract:The paper discusses the strategy of economic development of Russia, which has to be developed after the end of the first stage of post-communist transition – when private economy replaced the state-controlled one and stabilization has been obtained. Russia is considered as a heavy Industrialized Country, which has faced the challenges of post-Industrial modernization in the logic of catching-up development. This makes it different from so called ‘new Industrial states’ – countries that have to resolve the task of transformation of traditional (agrarian) society to Industrial one. Analysis is based on the approaches of A. Gerschenkron to ‘accelerated Industrialisation’ and their adjustment to post-Industrial world. The author suggests a set of economic policy principles, which could ensure sustainable economic growth and stimulate structural reforms appropriate for the new challenges, that is to stimulate transformation of Industrial Country to post-Industrial one. This is considered as a ‘policy of catching-up post-Industrialization.
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post communist russia in post Industrial world problems of catching up development
Voprosy Economiki, 2002Co-Authors: Vladimir MauAbstract:The strategy of Russia's socioeconomic development is discussed in the article. The essence of challenges facing the Country is determined as "catching-up post-Industrialisation". The methodology of the analysis is based on the adaptation of A. Gershenkron's conclusions to the problems of post-Industrialisation. The author offers a set of economic policy principles which can help accelerate the development of an Industrial Country in the direction of creation of the post-Industrial society.
Richard Toye - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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how the un moved from full employment to economic development
Commonwealth & Comparative Politics, 2006Co-Authors: John Toye, Richard ToyeAbstract:Abstract Economic development was a topic of small consequence to the United Nations (UN) in the immediate aftermath of the Second World War. Yet by the late 1950s it had become one of the UN's over-arching purposes in its economic and social work. The reasons for this considerable (and to date permanent) change have not attracted much attention, because it is now assumed that economic development is the natural goal of UN economic efforts. This article offers an explanation of how this came about. Since the days of the League of Nations, international economic cooperation had centred on charting the spread of recession from one Industrial Country to another, and proposing counter-measures. Keynesian macroeconomics transformed this discourse, but at the same time opened up political divisions between the United States and the economically shattered nations of Western Europe. In the context of the Cold War, Secretary-General Dag Hammarskjold actively guided the UN away from economic policies of ‘extreme Ke...
Joseph E Gagnon - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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predicting sharp depreciations in Industrial Country exchange rates
Social Science Research Network, 2006Co-Authors: Jonathan H Wright, Joseph E GagnonAbstract:This paper considers the prediction of large depreciations (both nominal and real) in a panel of Industrialized countries using a probit methodology. The current account balance/GDP ratio has a modest but statistically significant effect on the estimated probability of a large depreciation, and gives slight predictive power in an out-of-sample forecasting exercise. The CPI inflation rate also has a modest but statistically significant effect in predicting nominal depreciations and has slight predictive power, but this effect is not present for real exchange rates. The GDP growth rate occasionally has a significant effect. A higher current account balance (surplus) tends to reduce the probability of a sharp depreciation; a higher inflation rate tends to increase the probability of a sharp depreciation; and a higher GDP growth rate perhaps tends to reduce the probability of a sharp depreciation.
John Toye - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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how the un moved from full employment to economic development
Commonwealth & Comparative Politics, 2006Co-Authors: John Toye, Richard ToyeAbstract:Abstract Economic development was a topic of small consequence to the United Nations (UN) in the immediate aftermath of the Second World War. Yet by the late 1950s it had become one of the UN's over-arching purposes in its economic and social work. The reasons for this considerable (and to date permanent) change have not attracted much attention, because it is now assumed that economic development is the natural goal of UN economic efforts. This article offers an explanation of how this came about. Since the days of the League of Nations, international economic cooperation had centred on charting the spread of recession from one Industrial Country to another, and proposing counter-measures. Keynesian macroeconomics transformed this discourse, but at the same time opened up political divisions between the United States and the economically shattered nations of Western Europe. In the context of the Cold War, Secretary-General Dag Hammarskjold actively guided the UN away from economic policies of ‘extreme Ke...
William R Cline - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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carbon abatement costs and climate change finance
2011Co-Authors: William R ClineAbstract:This study provides alternative estimates of the costs of greenhouse gas abatement through 2050 that would be necessary to limit CO2 atmospheric concentrations to approximately 450 parts per million and limiting warming to 2°C. Specific estimates are provided for 25 major economies (with the European Union as a single economy). Business as usual baselines are first developed, based on US Department of Energy projections through 2030 and on maintenance of Country-specific trends in GDP growth, energy efficiency growth, and carbon-efficiency of energy growth thereafter. The central policy simulation then involves a "Copenhagen Convergence" path, in which major economies meet their Copenhagen (December 2009) pledges for 2020, and thereafter emissions per capita decline along a path that by 2050 results in equal per capita emissions in all countries. Three abatement cost functions are used for calculating the resulting abatement costs: a model based on McKinsey & Co. estimates for 2030; the Nordhaus RICE model cost functions; and a set of summary cost regressions calculated from the Stanford Energy Modeling Forum (EMF-22) survey of abatement models. It is found that abatement costs should be moderate, reaching about one-fourth to two-thirds of one percent of GDP by 2030 and 1 to 2 percent of GDP by 2050. Costs can be reduced by international trading, but by less than generally perceived. A more ambitious early start on abatement than pledged at Copenhagen could reduce full-period costs. The study calculates corresponding magnitudes of investment for abatement as well as adaptation costs for developing countries, and identifies a benchmark of about $80 billion annually (excluding China) by 2020, lending support to the $100 billion target pledged for Industrial Country financial support by that year.
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trade policy and global poverty
2004Co-Authors: William R ClineAbstract:The stakes of the poor in trade policy are large: Free trade can help 500 million people escape poverty and inject $200 billion annually into the economies of developing countries, according to author William R. Cline. This book provides a comprehensive analysis of the potential for trade liberalization to spur growth and reduce poverty in developing countries. It quantifies the impact on global poverty of Industrial-Country liberalization, as well as liberalization by the developing countries. * Half or more of the annual gains from trade would come from the removal of Industrial-Country protection against developing-Country exports. By removing their trade barriers, Industrial countries could convey economic benefits to developing countries worth about twice the amount of their annual development assistance. By helping developing countries grow through trade, moreover, Industrial countries could lower costs to consumers for imports and realize other economic efficiencies. * The study estimates that free trade could reduce the number of people earning less than $2 per day by about 500 million over 15 years. This would cut the world poverty level by 25 percent. Cline judges that the developing countries were right to risk collapse of the Doha Round at the Cancun ministerial meeting in September 2003 by insisting on much deeper liberalization of agriculture than the Industrial countries were then willing to offer. * The study calls for a two-track strategy: first, deep multilateral liberalization involving phased but complete elimination of Industrial-county protection and deep reduction of protection by at least the middle-income developing countries, albeit on a more gradual schedule; and second, immediate free entry for imports from "high risk" low-income countries (heavily indebted poor countries, least developed countries, and sub-Saharan Africa), coupled with a 10-year tax holiday for direct investment in these countries.
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an index of Industrial Country trade policy toward developing countries
Research Papers in Economics, 2002Co-Authors: William R ClineAbstract:The index of trade policy developed in this study is designed to synthesize the state of developing Country access to import markets in each of the major Industrial Country areas. The first section presents the theoretical considerations involved in constructing the index, and weighs the pros and cons of various approaches to measuring protection. The second section presents estimates of protection against imports from developing countries for Australia, Canada, the European Union, Japan, New Zealand, Norway, Switzerland, and the United States. These estimates are calculated for three broad product categories: textiles and apparel; other manufactures; and agricultural goods. The analysis then combines the sectoral estimates into an Aggregate Measure of Protection (AMP) for each importing Country. It also reports measures of revealed openness, and incorporates them along with the AMPs to obtain a composite ranking of Industrial countries by degree of market access. The study then considers the additional information gained by disaggregating protection among EU member countries (in light of variation in agricultural subsidies), reviews two other recent studies similarly ranking protection and compares them to the present study, and recapitulates the principal findings. Among the big three markets, this study finds that protection against developing countries is lowest (and market access highest) in the United States, intermediate in the EU, and highest (market access lowest) in Japan. Among seven Industrial countries plus the EU, market access is ranked highest for a cluster of three countries close to each other at relatively low protection levels (United States, Australia, New Zealand); followed by Canada and the EU, and then by Switzerland with somewhat lesser access. Significantly lesser market access is found in Japan and especially lowest-ranked Norway. For most countries, the results are driven heavily by estimates of agricultural protection, which is so high that it dominates the results even though the share of agriculture in total imports is modest. It is thus not surprising that the countries concentrated at the top of the market access league tend to be the agricultural exporting countries, and those at the bottom, agricultural importers.