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Thomas A Evans - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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the effects of discretionary federal spending on Parliamentary Election results
Social Science Research Network, 2006Co-Authors: Thomas A EvansAbstract:Parliamentary rules make it difficult for opposition members of Parliament to influence government spending. As the electorate is aware of this situation discretionary federal spending is expected to affect vote-share differently for majority and opposition incumbents. Consistent estimators yield positive and significant point estimates for the impact of increases in spending for majority incumbents in Canadian federal Elections yet yield negative but insignificant point estimates for opposition incumbents. Furthermore, $100 additional federal spending per capita in an electoral district is estimated to increase majority candidates' vote-share, regardless of incumbency, by between 1.5 and 2.5 percentage points.
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the effects of discretionary federal spending on Parliamentary Election results
Economic Inquiry, 2006Co-Authors: Thomas A EvansAbstract:I. INTRODUCTION Three compelling reasons to expect that discretionary federal spending will have a different impact on incumbent majority and opposition candidates in the Canadian Parliamentary system of government are: only the prime minister and his appointed Cabinet may propose spending or taxing initiatives; the electorate only votes directly for their local Member of Parliament (MP); and, if the prime minister declares a vote-of-confidence all majority party MPs must vote with the prime minister or leave the party. These three characteristics, combined with the fact that the Opposition does not have enough votes to successfully prevent passage of legislation, make it very difficult for opposition MPs to influence discretionary spending. If the electorate is aware of this situation, majority party candidates, regardless of incumbency, stand to reap the electoral benefits of additional federal discretionary spending. Furthermore, opposition incumbents will lose votes as a consequence; if majority candidates receive additional votes, to some extent this must be at the expense of votes for opposition incumbents. The purpose of this paper is to empirically test these two hypothesis. The idea that discretionary spending can be used to influence Election outcomes verges on the trite. Mass media discussions are rife with accusations of pork barrel politics, this idea is implicitly contained the entire interest group theory of political decision making, and it is formally modeled in papers such as Weingast, Shepsle and Johnsen (1981). Despite the general agreement on the electoral motivations of discretionary spending, empirical findings have been relatively unsuccessful in documenting either important or significant effects of discretionary spending, or various other district level explanatory variables. Typical of this literature, Jacobson (1978) finds a negative and small effect of incumbent campaign spending, and Johannes and McAdams (1981) find no effect of case work on Election outcomes. As explained by Fiorina (1981), Rivers and Fiorina (1989) and Stein and Bickers (1994), the presence of a simultaneous equation system has biased the empirical estimates. Since politicians are apt to shift resources towards those electoral districts where the Election is expected to be closest, ordinary least squares will underestimate the true effect. Stein and Bickers demonstrate a negative correlation between the closeness of Elections and the amount of pork barrel spending in Congressional races; in a more recent article, Case (2001) finds that federal block grants are negatively influenced by the expected closeness of the Election in Albania. Despite the recognition of a simultaneity bias, attempts to overcome the problem have generally been unsuccessful. A notable exception is that of Levitt and Snyder (1997) who uses spending outside of a district but inside a state as an instrument for spending in the district. Levitt and Snyder find a positive and significant impact of discretionary spending on the share of the vote for incumbents in U.S. House Elections. This paper contributes to the discretionary spending and Election literature in two ways. Using a newly created data set of Canadian federal spending at the electoral district level, the analysis of discretionary spending can be extended beyond the U.S. border and presidential system of government, to a Parliamentary system. Additionally, the results contained herein provide a robustness check of Levitt and Snyder's methodology. Using instruments similar to those proposed by Nagler and Leighley (1992) and Levitt and Snyder (1997), consistent estimates indicate that increases in federal government spending and national gross domestic product (GDP) per capita have positive and significant effects on the share of the vote received by majority incumbents, yet insignificant effects on opposition incumbents (The sign of the point estimates are negative). …
Altin Ilirjani - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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Electoral Behavior in the 2005 Albanian Parliamentary Election
2005Co-Authors: Altin IlirjaniAbstract:This paper discusses results of the 2005 Albanian Election Study. The 2005 Albanian Election Study (AES) was organized in collaboration with the Comparative Study of Electoral Systems (CSES) of the University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, USA. CSES is a cross-national collaborative program among Election studies in over fifty countries supported by the National Science Foundation of the United States. ALPSA is an Albanian professional organization. The AES survey fieldwork took place immediately after the last Albanian Parliamentary Election from July 4-20, 2005. The 2005 Albanian Election Study focused on three general themes: the impact of political institutions on citizens' political cognition and behavior (functioning of the parliament, the government, and the presidency; the electoral rules; and political parties); the nature of political, cultural, ethnic and social cleavages; ideological alignments in Albania; and the evaluation of democratic institutions and processes.
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political choice in albania the 2005 albanian Parliamentary Election
Social Science Research Network, 2005Co-Authors: Altin IlirjaniAbstract:The 2005 Albanian Election Study (AES) was organized in collaboration with the Comparative Study of Electoral Systems (CSES) of the University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, USA. The post-Election survey was administered through interviews with a representative sample of 1,500 households. This paper reports survey results on campaign issues, voters' evaluation of political leaders, voters' expectations from the new government, as well as a few socio-demographic variables like religious denominations and ethnic self-identification.
Spiro Kiousis - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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a new look at agenda setting effects comparing the predictive power of overall political news consumption and specific news media consumption across different media channels and media types
Journal of Communication, 2010Co-Authors: Jesper Stromback, Spiro KiousisAbstract:The purpose of this study was to compare the predictive power of overall political news consumption and media-specific news consumption, on perceived issue salience across different media channels and media types in the context of the 2006 Swedish Parliamentary Election. Findings suggest that overall consumption of political news is significantly more important than consumption of specific media outlets in predicting changes in issue salience. Although the study demonstrates that the Swedish news media collectively can exert considerable agenda-setting influence over their audiences, it could, however, not find any consistent evidence of differences related to media channels or media types. The reasons for and implications of the results are discussed.
Michaela Wanke - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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predicting voting behavior with implicit attitude measures the 2002 german Parliamentary Election
Experimental Psychology, 2007Co-Authors: Malte Friese, Matthias Bluemke, Michaela WankeAbstract:Implicit measures of attitudes are commonly seen to be primarily capable of predicting spontaneous behavior. However, evidence exists that these measures can also improve the prediction of more deliberate behavior. In a prospective study we tested the hypothesis that Implicit Association Test (IAT) measures of the five major political parties in Germany would improve the prediction of voting behavior over and above explicit self-report measures in the 2002 Parliamentary Elections. Additionally we tested whether general interest in politics moderates the relationship between explicit and implicit attitude measures. The results support our hypotheses. Implications for predictive models of explicitly and implicitly measured attitudes are discussed.
Kim Strandberg - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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a social media revolution or just a case of history repeating itself the use of social media in the 2011 finnish Parliamentary Elections
New Media & Society, 2013Co-Authors: Kim StrandbergAbstract:This article analyses the use of social media by both candidates and citizens in the 2011 Finnish Parliamentary Election campaign. Utilizing data on the candidates’ use of various social media sites, survey data from the 2011 Finnish Election study, and survey data from a Finnish panel, the analyses reveal that the significance of social media was generally modest in the Election campaign. The findings show that although candidates did use social media extensively, the on-line electoral patterns were found to be mostly normalized. The citizens’ use of social media in the campaign was also very low and its impact on their voting decision even smaller. However, the irrelevance of political interest in explaining extensive social media use, found in the analyses, break established patterns explaining political participation.