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Deniz Ünal - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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Are global value chains receding? The jury is still out. Key findings from the analysis of deflated world trade in Parts and Components
International Economics, 2020Co-Authors: Guillaume Gaulier, Aude Sztulman, Deniz ÜnalAbstract:The weakening of global value chain dynamics is considered as one of the causes of the slowdown in world trade since the 2008 crisis. To better understand the evolution of GVCs at the world level, we use very detailed trade data for 2000 to 2017, which distinguishes different production stages along the GVC. In particular, among intermediate goods, we focus on Parts and Components (P&C) rather than semi-finished products since the manufacture of P&C corresponds to activities more embedded in GVCs. We control for price effects using an original production stages deflator based on detailed bilateral trade unit-values, and take into account the evolution of the global business cycle. We show that the development of international value chains, measured as the share of trade in P&C in manufacturing world trade in volume, continued after the crisis. Moreover, such dynamics are not the result of sectoral composition effects.
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Are global value chains receding? The jury is still out. Key findings from the analysis of deflated world trade in Parts and Components
International Economics, 2020Co-Authors: Guillaume Gaulier, Aude Sztulman, Deniz ÜnalAbstract:Abstract The weakening of global value chain dynamics is considered as one of the causes of the slowdown in world trade since the 2008 crisis. To better understand the evolution of GVCs at the world level, we use very detailed trade data for 2000 to 2017, which distinguishes different production stages along the GVC. In particular, among intermediate goods, we focus on Parts and Components (P&C) rather than semi-finished products since the manufacture of P&C corresponds to activities more embedded in GVCs. We control for price effects using an original production stages deflator based on detailed bilateral trade unit-values, and take into account the evolution of the global business cycle. We show that the development of international value chains, measured as the share of trade in Parts and Components in the volume of world trade, continued after the crisis. Moreover, such dynamics are not the result of sectoral composition effects.
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Are global value chains receding? The jury is still out. Key findings from the analysis of deflated world trade in Parts and Components
2019Co-Authors: Guillaume Gaulier, Aude Sztulman, Deniz ÜnalAbstract:In this article, we examine the dynamics of Global Value Chains (GVCs) since the 2000s. Did it show a marked expansion up to the Great Recession and did GVCs begin a downturn in the 2010s? To better understand the evolution of GVCs at the world level, we use very detailed trade data for 2000 to 2016, which distinguishes different production stages along the GVC. In particular, among intermediate goods, we focus on Parts and Components (P&C) rather than semi-finished products since the manufacture of P&C corresponds to activities more embedded in GVCs. We control, also, for the global business cycle and price effects using an original production stages deflator based on detailed bilateral trade unit-values. This new GVC indicator shows moderate growth over the study period with no trend reversal. In the electronics sector, where GVCs are particularly well-developed, we observe contrasting effects: the share in P&C trade for office machinery and computers has decreased, while it has increased in the case of telecommunications equipment, the flagship IT revolution industry. Also, counts of clients or suppliers by stages of production indicate higher and growing geographical diversity for P&C.
Guillaume Gaulier - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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Are global value chains receding? The jury is still out. Key findings from the analysis of deflated world trade in Parts and Components
International Economics, 2020Co-Authors: Guillaume Gaulier, Aude Sztulman, Deniz ÜnalAbstract:The weakening of global value chain dynamics is considered as one of the causes of the slowdown in world trade since the 2008 crisis. To better understand the evolution of GVCs at the world level, we use very detailed trade data for 2000 to 2017, which distinguishes different production stages along the GVC. In particular, among intermediate goods, we focus on Parts and Components (P&C) rather than semi-finished products since the manufacture of P&C corresponds to activities more embedded in GVCs. We control for price effects using an original production stages deflator based on detailed bilateral trade unit-values, and take into account the evolution of the global business cycle. We show that the development of international value chains, measured as the share of trade in P&C in manufacturing world trade in volume, continued after the crisis. Moreover, such dynamics are not the result of sectoral composition effects.
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Are global value chains receding? The jury is still out. Key findings from the analysis of deflated world trade in Parts and Components
International Economics, 2020Co-Authors: Guillaume Gaulier, Aude Sztulman, Deniz ÜnalAbstract:Abstract The weakening of global value chain dynamics is considered as one of the causes of the slowdown in world trade since the 2008 crisis. To better understand the evolution of GVCs at the world level, we use very detailed trade data for 2000 to 2017, which distinguishes different production stages along the GVC. In particular, among intermediate goods, we focus on Parts and Components (P&C) rather than semi-finished products since the manufacture of P&C corresponds to activities more embedded in GVCs. We control for price effects using an original production stages deflator based on detailed bilateral trade unit-values, and take into account the evolution of the global business cycle. We show that the development of international value chains, measured as the share of trade in Parts and Components in the volume of world trade, continued after the crisis. Moreover, such dynamics are not the result of sectoral composition effects.
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Are global value chains receding? The jury is still out. Key findings from the analysis of deflated world trade in Parts and Components
2019Co-Authors: Guillaume Gaulier, Aude Sztulman, Deniz ÜnalAbstract:In this article, we examine the dynamics of Global Value Chains (GVCs) since the 2000s. Did it show a marked expansion up to the Great Recession and did GVCs begin a downturn in the 2010s? To better understand the evolution of GVCs at the world level, we use very detailed trade data for 2000 to 2016, which distinguishes different production stages along the GVC. In particular, among intermediate goods, we focus on Parts and Components (P&C) rather than semi-finished products since the manufacture of P&C corresponds to activities more embedded in GVCs. We control, also, for the global business cycle and price effects using an original production stages deflator based on detailed bilateral trade unit-values. This new GVC indicator shows moderate growth over the study period with no trend reversal. In the electronics sector, where GVCs are particularly well-developed, we observe contrasting effects: the share in P&C trade for office machinery and computers has decreased, while it has increased in the case of telecommunications equipment, the flagship IT revolution industry. Also, counts of clients or suppliers by stages of production indicate higher and growing geographical diversity for P&C.
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Are Global Value Chains Receding? The Jury Is Still Out. Key Findings from the Analysis of Deflated World Trade in Parts and Components
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2019Co-Authors: Guillaume Gaulier, Aude Sztulman, Deniz Ünal-kesenciAbstract:In this article, we examine the dynamics of Global Value Chains (GVCs) since the 2000s. Did it show a marked expansion up to the Great Recession and did GVCs begin a downturn in the 2010s? To better understand the evolution of GVCs at the world level, we use very detailed trade data for 2000 to 2016, which distinguishes different production stages along the GVC. In particular, among intermediate goods, we focus on Parts and Components (P&C) rather than semi-finished products since the manufacture of P&C corresponds to activities more embedded in GVCs. We control, also, for the global business cycle and price effects using an original production stages deflator based on detailed bilateral trade unit-values. This new GVC indicator shows moderate growth over the study period with no trend reversal.
Aude Sztulman - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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Are global value chains receding? The jury is still out. Key findings from the analysis of deflated world trade in Parts and Components
International Economics, 2020Co-Authors: Guillaume Gaulier, Aude Sztulman, Deniz ÜnalAbstract:The weakening of global value chain dynamics is considered as one of the causes of the slowdown in world trade since the 2008 crisis. To better understand the evolution of GVCs at the world level, we use very detailed trade data for 2000 to 2017, which distinguishes different production stages along the GVC. In particular, among intermediate goods, we focus on Parts and Components (P&C) rather than semi-finished products since the manufacture of P&C corresponds to activities more embedded in GVCs. We control for price effects using an original production stages deflator based on detailed bilateral trade unit-values, and take into account the evolution of the global business cycle. We show that the development of international value chains, measured as the share of trade in P&C in manufacturing world trade in volume, continued after the crisis. Moreover, such dynamics are not the result of sectoral composition effects.
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Are global value chains receding? The jury is still out. Key findings from the analysis of deflated world trade in Parts and Components
International Economics, 2020Co-Authors: Guillaume Gaulier, Aude Sztulman, Deniz ÜnalAbstract:Abstract The weakening of global value chain dynamics is considered as one of the causes of the slowdown in world trade since the 2008 crisis. To better understand the evolution of GVCs at the world level, we use very detailed trade data for 2000 to 2017, which distinguishes different production stages along the GVC. In particular, among intermediate goods, we focus on Parts and Components (P&C) rather than semi-finished products since the manufacture of P&C corresponds to activities more embedded in GVCs. We control for price effects using an original production stages deflator based on detailed bilateral trade unit-values, and take into account the evolution of the global business cycle. We show that the development of international value chains, measured as the share of trade in Parts and Components in the volume of world trade, continued after the crisis. Moreover, such dynamics are not the result of sectoral composition effects.
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Are global value chains receding? The jury is still out. Key findings from the analysis of deflated world trade in Parts and Components
2019Co-Authors: Guillaume Gaulier, Aude Sztulman, Deniz ÜnalAbstract:In this article, we examine the dynamics of Global Value Chains (GVCs) since the 2000s. Did it show a marked expansion up to the Great Recession and did GVCs begin a downturn in the 2010s? To better understand the evolution of GVCs at the world level, we use very detailed trade data for 2000 to 2016, which distinguishes different production stages along the GVC. In particular, among intermediate goods, we focus on Parts and Components (P&C) rather than semi-finished products since the manufacture of P&C corresponds to activities more embedded in GVCs. We control, also, for the global business cycle and price effects using an original production stages deflator based on detailed bilateral trade unit-values. This new GVC indicator shows moderate growth over the study period with no trend reversal. In the electronics sector, where GVCs are particularly well-developed, we observe contrasting effects: the share in P&C trade for office machinery and computers has decreased, while it has increased in the case of telecommunications equipment, the flagship IT revolution industry. Also, counts of clients or suppliers by stages of production indicate higher and growing geographical diversity for P&C.
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Are Global Value Chains Receding? The Jury Is Still Out. Key Findings from the Analysis of Deflated World Trade in Parts and Components
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2019Co-Authors: Guillaume Gaulier, Aude Sztulman, Deniz Ünal-kesenciAbstract:In this article, we examine the dynamics of Global Value Chains (GVCs) since the 2000s. Did it show a marked expansion up to the Great Recession and did GVCs begin a downturn in the 2010s? To better understand the evolution of GVCs at the world level, we use very detailed trade data for 2000 to 2016, which distinguishes different production stages along the GVC. In particular, among intermediate goods, we focus on Parts and Components (P&C) rather than semi-finished products since the manufacture of P&C corresponds to activities more embedded in GVCs. We control, also, for the global business cycle and price effects using an original production stages deflator based on detailed bilateral trade unit-values. This new GVC indicator shows moderate growth over the study period with no trend reversal.
K. C. Fung - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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Determinants of trade in Parts and Components: Latin America and East Asia
Journal of Chinese Economic and Foreign Trade Studies, 2016Co-Authors: K. C. Fung, Lurong Chen, Alicia García-herreroAbstract:Purpose The purpose of this paper is to investigate what affects trade in Parts and Components, particularly for Latin America and East Asia. Design/methodology/approach The methodology includes using data analysis as well as regressions Findings The main findings show that logistics and infrastructure are among the most important determinants of supply chain trade. For Latin America to participate more in such trade, the region should attract more foreign direct investment, including direct investment from China in transportation, roads and ports as well as infrastructure in general. Originality/value This paper is among the first in the literature to conduct regression analysis on trade in Parts and Components.
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Production networks and international trade: China, Brazil and Mexico
The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 2015Co-Authors: K. C. Fung, Hsiang-chih Hwang, Francis Ng, Jesus SeadeAbstract:In this paper, we examine and contrast the production networks in China, Brazil and Mexico. We highlight three results. First, over the last two decades, China's intensity of trade in Parts and Components has shifted from other members of Greater China to South Korea and ASEAN countries. Second, even though China's production network is mainly Asian, its Parts and Components trading partners are increasingly global. Brazil also increasingly trades its Parts with China and East Asia, while Mexico is still focused on its trade with the United States. Third, Greater China has become a major source of Parts and Components to Mexican and Brazilian imports. We highlight the importance of such a pan-Pacific link and anticipate that the joint China–Brazil–Mexico production network will continue to grow.
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Determinants of Trade in Parts and Components: An Empirical Analysis
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2015Co-Authors: Alicia García-herrero, K. C. FungAbstract:The rapid rise of trade in part of Components –in the context of an increasingly important global production chain – is a key future of Asia’s economic miracle. This paper aims at analyzing empirically what are key determinants of trade in Parts and Components. The focus is Latin America and Asia so as to draw relevant lesson for the former to the latter. The success keys of Greater China and Mexico, within the Latin American region could, thus, be explained, at least partially by identifying such key determinants. Our results show that the size of the economy (GDP), human capital, labor costs and the institutional/infrastructural framework have played in enabling regions to develop their comparative advantages of trade in Parts and Components.
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Production networks in China and India: a comparative analysis
Economic Change and Restructuring, 2013Co-Authors: K. C. Fung, Hsiang-chih Hwang, Jesus SeadeAbstract:In this paper, we examine and compare the two important production hubs in Asia: China and Greater China and India and South Asia. We show that in China, Hong Kong and Taiwan, manufacturing trade has continued to be highly relevant, with trade in Parts and Components growing in importance. In contrast, in India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka, trade in Parts and Components remain limited. We then calculate various revealed comparative advantage (RCA) indices, which China having more Components with RCA values exceeding one. Some of the most important Components exported by China include electronic Parts and telecommunication Parts. One explanation is to why India is relatively weak in Parts and Components trade is that India is strong in service trade. Other reasons may be related to better port infrastructure, higher research and development intensity and higher educational enrollments in China.
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International Trade and Production Networks: Comparisons of China and Greater China Versus India and South Asia
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2013Co-Authors: K. C. Fung, Hsiang-chih Hwang, Jesus SeadeAbstract:China and India are two of the most important emerging countries in the world. In 2011, based on market/official exchange rates, China was the largest economy in Asia and India was the third largest. With the ongoing economic global slowdown, both India and China are expected to experience slower growth rates. Nonetheless, compared with the developed economies in North America, Europe and elsewhere, both Asian giants will still expand at relatively healthy growth rates.China overtook Germany as the world’s largest exporter in 2010 (CIA Factbook 2012), with a total of US $2,370 billion manufacturing trade, which was a 26% increase from 1990. A substantial amount of China’s trade consists of trade in Parts and Components. In 2000, the share of Parts and Components in China’s exports to the world was 22.2%. By 2010, the comparable share has increased to 28.4%. In contrast, India’s share of Parts and Components in its exports to the world is 17.5% in 2000. By 2010, the comparable share has actually declined to 12.4%. This contrast partly reflects the fact that India’s participation in world exports of all goods has increased substantially between 2000 and 2010 (from US $42,358 million to US $220,408 million). But the absolute value of India’s exports of Parts and Components in 2010 amounted to only US $27,433 million. This is significantly smaller than the US $448,300 million of Parts and Components that China exports to the world in 2010. This is the first comparison we can obtain in trade and production network between China and India. China’s export of Parts and Components in 2010 is almost 15 times that of India.
Jing Wang - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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Exports of Parts and Components by Different Types of Firms in the People’s Republic of China: A Comprehensive Examination
Production Networks and Enterprises in East Asia, 2016Co-Authors: Hyun-hoon Lee, Donghyun Park, Jing WangAbstract:Using highly disaggregated HS 8-digit product-category level data collected by the General Administration of Customs for 2000 and 2008, we comprehensively and systematically assess the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) exports of two types of manufactured goods (Parts and Components and final goods) as well as of nonmanufactured goods by different types of firms (foreign firms, domestic private firms, and domestic public firms). Our empirical framework is based on the gravity model, which we find works well for all specifications, and our results are largely consistent with economic intuition. All three different types of firms in the PRC export more to larger countries and less to countries that are farther away, irrespective of the type of product. Replacing the value of exports with the goods-extensive margin (i.e., number of goods) and goods-intensive margin (i.e., value of exports per good), the results again are largely consistent with economic intuition.
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The Role of China in International Fragmentation and Production Network: An Empirical Investigation *
2013Co-Authors: Hyun-hoon Lee, Donghyun Park, Jing WangAbstract:Many studies have found that China’s increasing integration into the world economy has facilitated greater fragmentation of production among Asian countries. Despite the central role of China in Parts and Components trade, most previous studies on China’s Components trade have been limited to a particular country or some specific industries. The central objective of this paper is to provide a complete description of China’s Parts and Components trade. In order to achieve this goal, we systematically separate intermediate goods (Parts and Components) and final goods from manufactured trade flows, and give a description of the pattern and trends of Parts and Components trade of China for the period 1992-2009. We then estimate the gravity model augmented with regional dummy variables to examine the determinants of China’s trade in Parts and Components and to assess whether China enjoys intense linkages in trade in Parts and Components with other East Asian countries. We find that China’s Parts and Components trade has increased steadily, in parallel with the growing volume of China’s world trade. Second, the share of Parts and Components in China’s imports is much greater than the world average level. In combination with China’s role as a globally significant exporter of final goods, this suggests that China is a major a world production center. Finally, China’s Parts and Components trade has a relatively high degree of regional concentration. ASEAN, Japan, Korea, EU, and NAFTA are China’s major trading partners.
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The Role of the People's Republic of China in International Fragmentation and Production Networks: An Empirical Investigation
2011Co-Authors: Hyun-hoon Lee, Donghyun Park, Jing WangAbstract:Despite the central role of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) in global Parts and Components trade, most previous studies on the PRC’s Parts and Components trade have been limited to a particular trade partner or some specific industries. The central objective of this paper is to provide a more complete description of the PRC’s Parts and Components trade. To do so, we systematically separate total trade flows into Parts and Components and final goods, and give a description of the pattern of Parts and Components trade for the period 1992–2009. We then estimate a gravity model to examine the determinants of the PRC’s trade in Parts and Components. We find that the share of Parts and Components trade in the PRC’s total trade has grown rapidly.