The Experts below are selected from a list of 3786 Experts worldwide ranked by ideXlab platform
Jörg Friedrichs - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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Peak Oil futures same crisis different responses
2012Co-Authors: Jörg FriedrichsAbstract:Peak Oil theory predicts that global Oil production will soon start a terminal decline. Most proponents of the theory imply that no adequate alternate resource and technology will be available to replace Oil as the backbone resource of industrial society. To understand what may happen if the proponents of Peak Oil theory are right, I analyze the historical experience of countries that have gone through a comparable experience. Japan (1918–1945), North Korea (1990s) and Cuba (1990s) have all been facing severe Oil supply disruptions in the order of 20% or more. Despite the unique features of each case, it is possible to derive clues on how different parts of the world would react to a global energy crunch. The historical record suggests at least three possible Peak Oil trajectories: predatory militarism, totalitarian retrenchment, and socioeconomic adaptation.
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global energy crunch how different parts of the world would react to a Peak Oil scenario
Energy Policy, 2010Co-Authors: Jörg FriedrichsAbstract:Peak Oil theory predicts that Oil production will soon start a terminal decline. Most authors imply that no adequate alternate resource and technology will be available to replace Oil as the backbone resource of industrial society. This article uses historical cases from countries that have gone through a similar experience as the best available analytical strategy to understand what will happen if the predictions of Peak Oil theorists are right. The author is not committed to a particular version of Peak Oil theory, but deems the issue important enough to explore how various parts of the world should be expected to react. From the historical record he is able to identify predatory militarism, totalitarian retrenchment, and socioeconomic adaptation as three possible trajectories.
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Global energy crunch: How different parts of the world would react to a Peak Oil scenario
Energy Policy, 2010Co-Authors: Jörg FriedrichsAbstract:Peak Oil theory predicts that Oil production will soon start a terminal decline. Most authors imply that no adequate alternate resource and technology will be available to replace Oil as the backbone resource of industrial society. This article uses historical cases from countries that have gone through a similar experience as the best available analytical strategy to understand what will happen if the predictions of Peak Oil theorists are right. The author is not committed to a particular version of Peak Oil theory, but deems the issue important enough to explore how various parts of the world should be expected to react. From the historical record he is able to identify predatory militarism, totalitarian retrenchment, and socioeconomic adaptation as three possible trajectories. © 2010 Elsevier Ltd.
Susanne Becken - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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Peak Oil: a hidden issue? Social representations of professional tourism perspectives
Journal of Sustainable Tourism, 2015Co-Authors: Susanne BeckenAbstract:Peak Oil, the Peaking of global Oil production, is a collective risk highly relevant to the tourism sector. Public discourse on Peak Oil, however, is limited. To better understand what “sense” tourism experts make of Peak Oil, and provide a platform for future debate and action, this research used the theory of social representation to explore core and peripheral elements that constitute Peak Oil representations and help tourism stakeholders to conceptualize and address this issue. Using free association methodology, 101 tourism experts worldwide provided up to five words and three mental images describing their thoughts and feelings about Peak Oil. The analysis highlights the importance of economic impacts and alternative energy sources, as well as anchoring effects to more established concepts such as sustainability and climate change. Notably, each of the four professional sub-groups approached (academics, consultants, government and industry representatives) had markedly different core beliefs. There ...
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Peak Oil: a hidden issue? Social representations of professional tourism perspectives
Journal of Sustainable Tourism, 2015Co-Authors: Susanne BeckenAbstract:Peak Oil, the Peaking of global Oil production, is a collective risk highly relevant to the tourism sector. Public discourse on Peak Oil, however, is limited. To better understand what "sense" tourism experts make of Peak Oil, and provide a platform for future debate and action, this research used the theory of social representation to explore core and peripheral elements that constitute Peak Oil representations and help tourism stakeholders to conceptualize and address this issue. Using free association methodology, 101 tourism experts worldwide provided up to five words and three mental images describing their thoughts and feelings about Peak Oil. The analysis highlights the importance of economic impacts and alternative energy sources, as well as anchoring effects to more established concepts such as sustainability and climate change. Notably, each of the four professional sub-groups approached (academics, consultants, government and industry representatives) had markedly different core beliefs. There was no agreement on whether Peak Oil was concerning or not, and whether action is required by the tourism sector to address negative impacts. This was particularly evident with the industry sub-group. Future research and policy implications are outlined, including the role of the media, and its responsibility to facilitate this discourse.Griffith Business School, Department of Tourism, Sport and Hotel ManagementFull Tex
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Oil depletion or a market problem a framing analysis of Peak Oil in the economist news magazine
Energy research and social science, 2014Co-Authors: Susanne BeckenAbstract:Abstract Despite an increase of Oil production from unconventional resources, concerns about the depletion of ‘cheap Oil’ are more imminent than ever. Recognising the importance of media in influencing public opinion, risk perceptions and policy making, this research presents a framing analysis of Peak Oil in The Economist s’ news magazine (2008 and 2012). One hundred and seventy articles, of which 58 focused on energy security and Oil production, were analysed using content and discourse analysis. Coverage was multi-facetted, and included Oil depletion as one storyline within the supply challenge frame, especially during times of very high Oil prices. Oil prices and the rapid growth in ‘fracking’ were found to be critical discourse moments, influencing the nature of Oil coverage in The Economist . Overall, due to The Economist 's neoliberal ideology and the resulting optimistic framing of market forces and new technologies, this research found that the news magazine does not contribute majorly to enhancing the public debate on Peak Oil.
Jeroen C J M Van Den Bergh - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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global competition dynamics of fossil fuels and renewable energy under climate policies and Peak Oil a behavioural model
Energy Policy, 2020Co-Authors: Paolo Zeppini, Jeroen C J M Van Den BerghAbstract:We develop a stochastic decision model to analyse the global competitive dynamics of fossil fuels and renewable energy. It describes coal, Oil/gas, solar and wind. These differ not only in pollution intensities but also in profitability and innovation potential. The model accounts for the effect of learning curves, path-dependence and climate policies. Adoption shares endogenously affect agents' utility through increasing returns to adoption, learning, and a ‘Peak Oil’ capacity constraint. We find that Peak Oil induces a transition to coal rather than renewable energy, which worsens climate change. By introducing climate policies - such as a carbon tax, market adoption or RD and how uncertain or variable are final market shares of energy sources.
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effective climate energy solutions escape routes and Peak Oil
Energy Policy, 2012Co-Authors: Jeroen C J M Van Den BerghAbstract:Many well-intended climate-energy strategies are ineffective in the absence of serious environmental regulation. This holds, among others, for direct support of clean energy, voluntary energy conservation, technical standards on a limited set of products, unilateral stringent carbon pricing, and awaiting Peak Oil as a climate strategy. All of these suffer from “escape routes” that indirectly increase CO2 emissions and thus make the original strategy ineffective. On the other hand, environmental regulation alone may lead to a myopia-bias, stimulating early dominance of cost-effective technologies and a focus on incremental innovations associated with such technologies rather than on radical innovations. Although adopting a partial viewpoint keeps the analysis simple, we urgently need a more inclusive systems perspective on climate solutions. This will allow the formulation of an effective climate policy package that addresses the various escape routes.
Klaus Hubacek - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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economic vulnerability to Peak Oil
Global Environmental Change-human and Policy Dimensions, 2013Co-Authors: Christian Kerschner, Christina Prell, Kuishuang Feng, Klaus HubacekAbstract:Peak Oil, which refers to the maximum possible global Oil production rate, is increasingly gaining attention in both science and policy discourses. However, little is known about how this phenomenon will impact economies, despite its apparent imminence and potential dangers. In this paper, we construct a vulnerability map of the U.S. economy, combining two approaches for analyzing economic systems, i.e. input–output analysis and social network analysis (applied to economic data). Our approach reveals the relative importance of individual economic sectors, and how vulnerable they are to Oil price shocks. As such, our dual-analysis helps identify which sectors, due to their strategic position, could put the entire U.S. economy at risk from Peak Oil. For the U.S., such sectors would include Iron Mills, Fertilizer Production and Transport by Air. Our findings thus provide early warnings to downstream companies about potential ‘trouble’ in their supply chain, and inform policy action for Peak Oil. Although our analysis is embedded in a Peak Oil narrative, it is just as valid and useful in the context of developing a climate roadmap toward a low carbon economy.
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assessing the suitability of input output analysis for enhancing our understanding of potential economic effects of Peak Oil
Energy, 2009Co-Authors: Christian Kerschner, Klaus HubacekAbstract:Given recent developments on energy markets and skyrocketing Oil prices, we argue for an urgent need to study the potential effects of world Oil production reaching a maximum (Peak Oil) in order to facilitate the development of adaptation policies. We consider input–output (IO) modelling as a powerful tool for this purpose. However, the standard Leontief type model implicitly assumes that all necessary inputs to satisfy a given demand can and will be supplied. This is problematic if the availability of certain key inputs becomes restricted and it is therefore only of limited usefulness for the study of the phenomenon of Peak Oil. Hence this paper firstly reviews two alternative modelling tools within the IO framework: supply-driven and mixed models. The former has been severely criticised for its problematic assumption of perfect factor substitution and perfect elasticity of demand as revealed by Oosterhaven [Oosterhaven J. On the plausibility of the supply-driven IO model. J Reg Sci 1988; 28:203–17. [1]]. The supply-constrained model on the other hand proved well suited to analyse the quantity dimension of Peak Oil and is therefore applied empirically in the second part of the paper, using data for the UK, Japanese and Chilean economy. Results show how differences in net-Oil exporting and net-Oil importing countries are clearly visible in terms of final demand. Industries, most affected in all countries, include transportation, electricity production and financial and trade services.
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Assessing the suitability of input–output analysis for enhancing our understanding of potential economic effects of Peak Oil
Energy, 2009Co-Authors: Christian Kerschner, Klaus HubacekAbstract:Given recent developments on energy markets and skyrocketing Oil prices, we argue for an urgent need to study the potential effects of world Oil production reaching a maximum (Peak Oil) in order to facilitate the development of adaptation policies. We consider input–output (IO) modelling as a powerful tool for this purpose. However, the standard Leontief type model implicitly assumes that all necessary inputs to satisfy a given demand can and will be supplied. This is problematic if the availability of certain key inputs becomes restricted and it is therefore only of limited usefulness for the study of the phenomenon of Peak Oil. Hence this paper firstly reviews two alternative modelling tools within the IO framework: supply-driven and mixed models. The former has been severely criticised for its problematic assumption of perfect factor substitution and perfect elasticity of demand as revealed by Oosterhaven [Oosterhaven J. On the plausibility of the supply-driven IO model. J Reg Sci 1988; 28:203–17. [1]]. The supply-constrained model on the other hand proved well suited to analyse the quantity dimension of Peak Oil and is therefore applied empirically in the second part of the paper, using data for the UK, Japanese and Chilean economy. Results show how differences in net-Oil exporting and net-Oil importing countries are clearly visible in terms of final demand. Industries, most affected in all countries, include transportation, electricity production and financial and trade services.
Marian Radetzki - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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Peak Oil and other threatening Peaks chimeras without substance
Energy Policy, 2010Co-Authors: Marian RadetzkiAbstract:The Peak Oil movement has widely spread its message about an impending Peak in global Oil production, caused by an inadequate resource base. On closer scrutiny, the underlying analysis is inconsistent, void of a theoretical foundation and without support in empirical observations. Global Oil resources are huge and expanding, and pose no threat to continuing output growth within an extended time horizon. In contrast, temporary or prolonged supply crunches are indeed plausible, even likely, on account of growing resource nationalism denying access to efficient exploitation of the existing resource wealth.
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Peak Oil and other threatening Peaks—Chimeras without substance
Energy Policy, 2010Co-Authors: Marian RadetzkiAbstract:The Peak Oil movement has widely spread its message about an impending Peak in global Oil production, caused by an inadequate resource base. On closer scrutiny, the underlying analysis is inconsistent, void of a theoretical foundation and without support in empirical observations. Global Oil resources are huge and expanding, and pose no threat to continuing output growth within an extended time horizon. In contrast, temporary or prolonged supply crunches are indeed plausible, even likely, on account of growing resource nationalism denying access to efficient exploitation of the existing resource wealth.