The Experts below are selected from a list of 21231 Experts worldwide ranked by ideXlab platform
Robert Holzmann - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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addressing the life expectancy gap in Pension Policy
2021Co-Authors: Jorge Miguel Bravo, Robert Holzmann, Mercedes Ayuso, Edward PalmerAbstract:Abstract Understanding the systematic relationship between period and cohort life expectancy and how the relationship evolves over time are critical issues in formulating the design of retirement income products, evaluating the actuarial balance of Pension schemes, and more generally for all analyses where demographic projections are involved. In this study, estimates of the life expectancy gap at all ages are performed using data for 1960–2018 from the Human Mortality Database and projections are generated through 2050 for the 42 national populations, disaggregated by sex. Contrary to previous research that often uses a single deemed to be «best» model to forecast mortality rates, we use a novel adaptive Bayesian Model Ensemble of heterogeneous parametric generalized age-period-cohort stochastic mortality models, principal component methods, and smoothing approaches. The procedure involves both the selection of the model confidence set and the determination of optimal weights. Model-averaged Bayesian credible prediction intervals are derived accounting for both the uncertainty arising from model error and parameter uncertainty. With intergenerational actuarial fairness and neutrality as the guiding principles the study then explores potential Policy interventions to address the consequences of the life expectancy gap - spanning over adjustments in the accumulation, benefit determination, and payout stages. Comprehensive numerical results are provided for two Policy options: (i) introducing a sustainability factor; and (ii) conditional Pension indexation. The results show that: (i) the life expectancy gap is positive and significant for almost all countries and years studied, (ii) it will continue to increase, (iii) the magnitude of the subsidy rates between generations can be sizeable demanding important initial Pension benefit reduction and/or a gradual diminution in the annual indexation rate of Pensions to correct them.
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automatic indexation of the Pension age to life expectancy when Policy design matters
2021Co-Authors: Mercedes Ayuso, Robert Holzmann, Jorge Miguel Bravo, Edward PalmerAbstract:Increasing retirement ages in an automatic or scheduled way with increasing life expectancy at retirement is a popular Pension Policy response to continuous longevity improvements. The question addressed here is: to what extent is simply adopting this approach likely to fulfill the overall goals of Policy? To shed some light on the answer, we examine the policies of four countries that have recently introduced automatic indexation of Pension ages to life expectancy–The Netherlands, Denmark, Portugal and Slovakia. To this end, we forecast an alternative period and cohort life expectancy measures using a Bayesian Model Ensemble of heterogeneous stochastic mortality models comprised of parametric models, principal component methods, and smoothing approaches. The approach involves both the selection of the model confidence set and the determination of optimal weights. Model-averaged Bayesian credible prediction intervals are derived accounting for various stochastic process, model, and parameter risks. The results show that: (i) retirement ages are forecasted to increase substantially in the coming decades, particularly if a constant period in retirement is targeted; (ii) retirement age Policy outcomes may substantially deviate from the Policy goal(s) depending on the design adopted and its implementation; and (iii) the choice of a cohort over period life expectancy measure matters. In addition, the distributional issues arising with the increasing socio-economic gap in life expectancy remain largely unaddressed.
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getting life expectancy estimates right for Pension Policy period versus cohort approach
2021Co-Authors: Mercedes Ayuso, Jorge Miguel Bravo, Robert HolzmannAbstract:In many Policy areas it is essential to use the best estimates of life expectancy, but it is vital to most areas of Pension Policy. This paper presents the conceptual differences between static period and dynamic cohort mortality tables, estimates the differences in life expectancy for Portugal and Spain, and compares official estimates of both life expectancy estimates for Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States for 1981, 2010, and 2060. These comparisons reveal major differences between period and cohort life expectancy in and between countries and across years. The implications of using wrong estimates for Pension Policy, including financial sustainability, are explored.
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getting life expectancy estimates right for Pension Policy period versus cohort approach
2018Co-Authors: Mercedes Ayuso, Jorge Miguel Bravo, Robert HolzmannAbstract:In many Policy areas it is essential to use the best estimates of life expectancy, but such estimates are vital to most areas of Pension Policy – from indexed access age and the calculation of initial benefits to the financial sustainability of Pension schemes and the operation of their balancing mechanism. This paper presents the conceptual differences between static period and dynamic cohort mortality tables, estimates the differences in life expectancy between both tables using data from Portugal and Spain, and compares official estimates of both life expectancy estimates for Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States for 1981, 2010 and 2060. This comparison reveals major differences between period and cohort life expectancy in and between countries and across years. Using measures of period instead of cohort life expectancy creates an implicit subsidy for individuals of 30 percent or more, with potentially stark consequences on the financial sustainability of Pension schemes. These and other implications for Pension Policy are explored and next steps suggested.
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the world bank approach to Pension reform
2000Co-Authors: Robert HolzmannAbstract:This paper highlights the World Bank’s thinking and worldwide involvement in Pension reform. Both are driven by the Bank’s mandate to help countries develop economically and to reduce poverty. The Bank has four key concerns in working with clients on Pension Policy: (1) short-term financing and long-term financial viability; (2) effects on economic growth; (3) adequacy and other distributive issues; and (4) political risk and sustainability. In response to these concerns and after review of the three main reform options for unfunded systems - mere PAYG reform, a rapid and complete shift to a mandatory funded system, and a gradual shift to a multipillar scheme - the Bank clearly favours the multipillar approach but in a pragmatic and country-specific manner. When helping to implement a Pension reform the Bank fully takes account of country preferences and circumstances, bases its support on sound reform criteria, links the client assistance with knowledge management, provides training and other measures to enhance the reform capacity of a country, and seeks cooperation with other international institutions. In addition, the Bank has a comprehensive research agenda to improve the working of multipillar schemes, and the investigations include issues of coverage, administrative costs and annuities.
Shihjiunn Shi - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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public private Pension mixes in east asia institutional diversity and Policy implications for old age security
2020Co-Authors: Chungyang Yeh, Hyunwook Cheng, Shihjiunn ShiAbstract:Previous studies of East Asian welfare regimes focus on similarities between social security schemes. In contrast, this paper explores cross-national variations in public–private Pension mixes in six welfare states: China, Hong Kong, Japan, Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan. Our research echoes the Pension Policy analysis of international organisations but takes a step forward with emphasis on the historical and institutional characteristics of the respective Pension systems. The analysis identifies three institutional patterns. First, the statist Pension system (Taiwan and China) primarily relies on public Pensions to provide old-age security, with private Pensions playing a rather minor role. Second, in the dualist Pension system (Japan and Korea) both public and private Pensions work in parallel to ensure retirement income, though a clear security gap exists between workers in the formal and informal economies. Finally, the individualist Pension system (Hong Kong and Singapore) is characterised by genuine fully funded individual accounts, emphasising citizens’ own responsibilities for ensuring old-age security. These three types of Pension systems demonstrate distinct institutional characteristics and Policy outcomes, illustrated by the juxtaposition of their institutional structures as well as by the comparison of key indicators collected from government reports and Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development statistics. The paper concludes with a theoretical reflection of East Asian Pension policies and a diagnosis of the distinct challenges confronted by each of the various Pension patterns.
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left to market and family again ideas and the development of the rural Pension Policy in china
2006Co-Authors: Shihjiunn ShiAbstract:The rural Pension Policy in China is characterized by a high degree of instability. In the past 15 years since the introduction of pilot schemes in some regions, the state has been unable to establish a stable institutional framework for rural old-age security. This article seeks to integrate the theoretical insights from a growing body of international literature on the role of ideas in social Policy reform in order to shed new light on the study of Chinese rural Pension Policy. I argue that the rise of the rural Pension scheme and its eventual failure to make consistent progress towards a comprehensive system is directly related to conflicting ideas among bureaucrats with respect to what sort of welfare provision the rural elderly actually need. The fluctuations in this Policy realm vividly illustrate the predominance of the Policy idea that peasants could still rely on their land and family, supplemented by private commercial insurance, in their old age. Given this alleged self-reliance on the part of rural residents, the state is very reluctant to set up a comprehensive rural Pension scheme. As a result, the old-age security of the peasants in rural China is standing on very thin ice, and the prospect for more active state involvement in the near future remains dim.
Sarmistha Pal - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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understanding poverty among the elderly in india implications for social Pension Policy
2011Co-Authors: Sarmistha Pal, Robert PalaciosAbstract:Abstract Since 1995, cash transfers to the poor elderly or ‘social Pensions’ have been one of the most important anti-poverty programmes in India. On the assumption that elderly poverty rates are higher than the general population, the minimum eligibility condition is set for 60 + in most states. Our analysis using 52nd and 60th round household-level National Sample Survey data, however, suggests that households with targeted elderly members 60 + do not necessarily have higher poverty rates than non-elderly households. Further analysis suggests that there is an expenditure-mortality link so that the poor tend to die younger and are therefore under-represented among those aged 60 + in most states.
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understanding poverty among the elderly in india implications for social Pension Policy
2008Co-Authors: Sarmistha Pal, Robert PalaciosAbstract:The Government of India is implementing a new Policy which dramatically increases funding for a cash transfer program targeted to the poor elderly. The expansion of this 'social Pension' in terms of coverage and benefit levels is taking place with little understanding of poverty among India's elderly or its determinants. This paper finds that households with elderly members do not have higher poverty rates than non-elderly households. This result is robust under various measures that take into account the size and composition of households. Separate evidence suggests that part of the explanation for this phenomenon is that the poor have higher mortality rates and are therefore underrepresented. This explanation has important implications for social Pension Policy and suggests that programs that reduce elderly mortality may actually increase the relative poverty levels of the elderly.
Robert Palacios - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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understanding poverty among the elderly in india implications for social Pension Policy
2011Co-Authors: Sarmistha Pal, Robert PalaciosAbstract:Abstract Since 1995, cash transfers to the poor elderly or ‘social Pensions’ have been one of the most important anti-poverty programmes in India. On the assumption that elderly poverty rates are higher than the general population, the minimum eligibility condition is set for 60 + in most states. Our analysis using 52nd and 60th round household-level National Sample Survey data, however, suggests that households with targeted elderly members 60 + do not necessarily have higher poverty rates than non-elderly households. Further analysis suggests that there is an expenditure-mortality link so that the poor tend to die younger and are therefore under-represented among those aged 60 + in most states.
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understanding poverty among the elderly in india implications for social Pension Policy
2008Co-Authors: Sarmistha Pal, Robert PalaciosAbstract:The Government of India is implementing a new Policy which dramatically increases funding for a cash transfer program targeted to the poor elderly. The expansion of this 'social Pension' in terms of coverage and benefit levels is taking place with little understanding of poverty among India's elderly or its determinants. This paper finds that households with elderly members do not have higher poverty rates than non-elderly households. This result is robust under various measures that take into account the size and composition of households. Separate evidence suggests that part of the explanation for this phenomenon is that the poor have higher mortality rates and are therefore underrepresented. This explanation has important implications for social Pension Policy and suggests that programs that reduce elderly mortality may actually increase the relative poverty levels of the elderly.
Mercedes Ayuso - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
-
addressing the life expectancy gap in Pension Policy
2021Co-Authors: Jorge Miguel Bravo, Robert Holzmann, Mercedes Ayuso, Edward PalmerAbstract:Abstract Understanding the systematic relationship between period and cohort life expectancy and how the relationship evolves over time are critical issues in formulating the design of retirement income products, evaluating the actuarial balance of Pension schemes, and more generally for all analyses where demographic projections are involved. In this study, estimates of the life expectancy gap at all ages are performed using data for 1960–2018 from the Human Mortality Database and projections are generated through 2050 for the 42 national populations, disaggregated by sex. Contrary to previous research that often uses a single deemed to be «best» model to forecast mortality rates, we use a novel adaptive Bayesian Model Ensemble of heterogeneous parametric generalized age-period-cohort stochastic mortality models, principal component methods, and smoothing approaches. The procedure involves both the selection of the model confidence set and the determination of optimal weights. Model-averaged Bayesian credible prediction intervals are derived accounting for both the uncertainty arising from model error and parameter uncertainty. With intergenerational actuarial fairness and neutrality as the guiding principles the study then explores potential Policy interventions to address the consequences of the life expectancy gap - spanning over adjustments in the accumulation, benefit determination, and payout stages. Comprehensive numerical results are provided for two Policy options: (i) introducing a sustainability factor; and (ii) conditional Pension indexation. The results show that: (i) the life expectancy gap is positive and significant for almost all countries and years studied, (ii) it will continue to increase, (iii) the magnitude of the subsidy rates between generations can be sizeable demanding important initial Pension benefit reduction and/or a gradual diminution in the annual indexation rate of Pensions to correct them.
-
automatic indexation of the Pension age to life expectancy when Policy design matters
2021Co-Authors: Mercedes Ayuso, Robert Holzmann, Jorge Miguel Bravo, Edward PalmerAbstract:Increasing retirement ages in an automatic or scheduled way with increasing life expectancy at retirement is a popular Pension Policy response to continuous longevity improvements. The question addressed here is: to what extent is simply adopting this approach likely to fulfill the overall goals of Policy? To shed some light on the answer, we examine the policies of four countries that have recently introduced automatic indexation of Pension ages to life expectancy–The Netherlands, Denmark, Portugal and Slovakia. To this end, we forecast an alternative period and cohort life expectancy measures using a Bayesian Model Ensemble of heterogeneous stochastic mortality models comprised of parametric models, principal component methods, and smoothing approaches. The approach involves both the selection of the model confidence set and the determination of optimal weights. Model-averaged Bayesian credible prediction intervals are derived accounting for various stochastic process, model, and parameter risks. The results show that: (i) retirement ages are forecasted to increase substantially in the coming decades, particularly if a constant period in retirement is targeted; (ii) retirement age Policy outcomes may substantially deviate from the Policy goal(s) depending on the design adopted and its implementation; and (iii) the choice of a cohort over period life expectancy measure matters. In addition, the distributional issues arising with the increasing socio-economic gap in life expectancy remain largely unaddressed.
-
getting life expectancy estimates right for Pension Policy period versus cohort approach
2021Co-Authors: Mercedes Ayuso, Jorge Miguel Bravo, Robert HolzmannAbstract:In many Policy areas it is essential to use the best estimates of life expectancy, but it is vital to most areas of Pension Policy. This paper presents the conceptual differences between static period and dynamic cohort mortality tables, estimates the differences in life expectancy for Portugal and Spain, and compares official estimates of both life expectancy estimates for Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States for 1981, 2010, and 2060. These comparisons reveal major differences between period and cohort life expectancy in and between countries and across years. The implications of using wrong estimates for Pension Policy, including financial sustainability, are explored.
-
getting life expectancy estimates right for Pension Policy period versus cohort approach
2018Co-Authors: Mercedes Ayuso, Jorge Miguel Bravo, Robert HolzmannAbstract:In many Policy areas it is essential to use the best estimates of life expectancy, but such estimates are vital to most areas of Pension Policy – from indexed access age and the calculation of initial benefits to the financial sustainability of Pension schemes and the operation of their balancing mechanism. This paper presents the conceptual differences between static period and dynamic cohort mortality tables, estimates the differences in life expectancy between both tables using data from Portugal and Spain, and compares official estimates of both life expectancy estimates for Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States for 1981, 2010 and 2060. This comparison reveals major differences between period and cohort life expectancy in and between countries and across years. Using measures of period instead of cohort life expectancy creates an implicit subsidy for individuals of 30 percent or more, with potentially stark consequences on the financial sustainability of Pension schemes. These and other implications for Pension Policy are explored and next steps suggested.