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Mikko Myrskyla - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.

  • all time low Period Fertility in finland demographic drivers tempo effects and cohort implications
    Population Studies-a Journal of Demography, 2020
    Co-Authors: Julia Ingrid Sofia Hellstrand, Jessica Nisen, Mikko Myrskyla
    Abstract:

    The ongoing Period Fertility decline in the Nordic countries is particularly strong in Finland, where the total Fertility rate (TFR) reached an all-time low of 1.41 in 2018. We analyse the decrease in Finland's TFR in 2010-17, and assess its consequences for cohort Fertility using complementary approaches. Decomposition of this Fertility decline shows that first births and women aged <30 are making the largest contributions. However, women aged 30-39 are also, for the first time in decades, experiencing a sustained Fertility decline. Tempo adjustments to the TFR suggest that quantum change is part of the decline. Several forecasting methods indicate that cohort Fertility is likely to decline from the long-lasting level of 1.85-1.95 to 1.75 or lower among women born in the mid-1980s. Without an exceptionally strong recovery in Fertility, Finnish cohort Fertility is likely to decline to levels currently observed among countries with very low Fertility.

  • all time low Period Fertility in finland drivers tempo effects and cohort implications
    Research Papers in Economics, 2019
    Co-Authors: Julia Ingrid Sofia Hellstrand, Jessica Nisen, Mikko Myrskyla
    Abstract:

    In several European countries previously characterized by relatively high and stable cohort Fertility, and particularly in the Nordic countries, Period total Fertility rates (TFR) have declined since 2010. The largest of these declines has been observed in Finland, where the TFR reached an all-time low of 1.49 in 2017. We analyze the decrease in the TFR in Finland since 2010, and assess the consequences of this trend for the completed Fertility of women currently of childbearing age using complementary approaches that build on existing parametric and novel nonparametric methods. Decomposition of the Fertility decline shows that this trend has been close to universal, with all age groups and parities contributing, but with first-order births and ages 25-29 making the largest contributions. At older ages, we document an important qualitative shift in Fertility dynamics: for the first time since the early 1970s, women aged 30+ are experiencing a sustained Fertility decline. All of our forecasting methods suggest that cohort Fertility is likely to decline from the 1.85-1.95 level that was reached by the 1940-1970 cohorts, to a level of 1.75 or below among women born in the mid-1980s. The tempo-adjusted TFR also suggests that quantum change is driving the decline. These findings are evidence of a strong quantum effect, and are particularly striking because they call into question whether Finland will continue to be part of the Nordic Fertility regime, which has been characterized by high and stable Fertility.

Julia Ingrid Sofia Hellstrand - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.

  • all time low Period Fertility in finland demographic drivers tempo effects and cohort implications
    Population Studies-a Journal of Demography, 2020
    Co-Authors: Julia Ingrid Sofia Hellstrand, Jessica Nisen, Mikko Myrskyla
    Abstract:

    The ongoing Period Fertility decline in the Nordic countries is particularly strong in Finland, where the total Fertility rate (TFR) reached an all-time low of 1.41 in 2018. We analyse the decrease in Finland's TFR in 2010-17, and assess its consequences for cohort Fertility using complementary approaches. Decomposition of this Fertility decline shows that first births and women aged <30 are making the largest contributions. However, women aged 30-39 are also, for the first time in decades, experiencing a sustained Fertility decline. Tempo adjustments to the TFR suggest that quantum change is part of the decline. Several forecasting methods indicate that cohort Fertility is likely to decline from the long-lasting level of 1.85-1.95 to 1.75 or lower among women born in the mid-1980s. Without an exceptionally strong recovery in Fertility, Finnish cohort Fertility is likely to decline to levels currently observed among countries with very low Fertility.

  • all time low Period Fertility in finland drivers tempo effects and cohort implications
    Research Papers in Economics, 2019
    Co-Authors: Julia Ingrid Sofia Hellstrand, Jessica Nisen, Mikko Myrskyla
    Abstract:

    In several European countries previously characterized by relatively high and stable cohort Fertility, and particularly in the Nordic countries, Period total Fertility rates (TFR) have declined since 2010. The largest of these declines has been observed in Finland, where the TFR reached an all-time low of 1.49 in 2017. We analyze the decrease in the TFR in Finland since 2010, and assess the consequences of this trend for the completed Fertility of women currently of childbearing age using complementary approaches that build on existing parametric and novel nonparametric methods. Decomposition of the Fertility decline shows that this trend has been close to universal, with all age groups and parities contributing, but with first-order births and ages 25-29 making the largest contributions. At older ages, we document an important qualitative shift in Fertility dynamics: for the first time since the early 1970s, women aged 30+ are experiencing a sustained Fertility decline. All of our forecasting methods suggest that cohort Fertility is likely to decline from the 1.85-1.95 level that was reached by the 1940-1970 cohorts, to a level of 1.75 or below among women born in the mid-1980s. The tempo-adjusted TFR also suggests that quantum change is driving the decline. These findings are evidence of a strong quantum effect, and are particularly striking because they call into question whether Finland will continue to be part of the Nordic Fertility regime, which has been characterized by high and stable Fertility.

Melissa S Kearney - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.

  • house prices and birth rates the impact of the real estate market on the decision to have a baby
    Journal of Public Economics, 2014
    Co-Authors: Lisa J Dettling, Melissa S Kearney
    Abstract:

    Abstract This project investigates how changes in Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA)-level house prices affect household Fertility decisions. Recognizing that housing is a major cost associated with child rearing, and assuming that children are normal goods, we hypothesize that an increase in house prices will have a negative price effect on current Period Fertility. This applies to both potential first-time homeowners and current homeowners who might upgrade to a bigger house with the addition of a child. On the other hand, for current homeowners, an increase in MSA-level house prices will increase home equity, leading to a positive effect on birth rates. Our results suggest that indeed, short-term increases in house prices lead to a decline in births among non-owners and a net increase among owners. The estimates imply that a $10,000 increase leads to a 5% increase in Fertility rates among owners and a 2.4% decrease among non-owners. At the mean U.S. home ownership rate, these estimates imply that the net effect of a $10,000 increase in house prices is a 0.8% increase in current Period Fertility rates. Given underlying differences in home ownership rates, the predicted net effect of house price changes varies across demographic groups. In addition, we find that changes in house prices exert a larger effect on current Period birth rates than do changes in unemployment rates.

  • house prices and birth rates the impact of the real estate market on the decision to have a baby
    National Bureau of Economic Research, 2011
    Co-Authors: Lisa J Dettling, Melissa S Kearney
    Abstract:

    This project investigates how changes in Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA)- level housing prices affect household Fertility decisions. Recognizing that housing is a major cost associated with child rearing, and assuming that children are normal goods, we hypothesize that an increase in house prices will have a negative price effect on current Period Fertility. This applies to both potential first-time homeowners and current homeowners who might upgrade to a bigger house with the addition of a child. On the other hand, for current homeowners, an increase in MSA-level house prices will increase home equity, leading to a positive effect on birth rates. Our results suggest that indeed, short-term increases in house prices lead to a decline in births among non-owners and a net increase among owners. The estimates imply that a $10,000 increase leads to a 5 percent increase in Fertility rates among owners and a 2.4 percent decrease among non-owners. At the mean U.S. home ownership rate, these estimates imply that the net effect of a $10,000 increase in house prices is a 0.8 percent increase in current Period Fertility rates. Given underlying differences in home ownership rates, the predicted net effect of house price changes varies across demographic groups. In addition, we find that changes in house prices exert a larger effect on current Period birth rates than do changes in unemployment rates. This project investigates how changes in Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA)- level housing prices affect household Fertility decisions. Recognizing that housing is a major cost associated with child rearing, and assuming that children are normal goods, we hypothesize that an increase in house prices will have a negative price effect on current Period Fertility. This applies to both potential first-time homeowners and current homeowners who might upgrade to a bigger house with the addition of a child. On the other hand, for current homeowners, an increase in MSA-level house prices will increase home equity, leading to a positive effect on birth rates. Our results suggest that indeed, short-term increases in house prices lead to a decline in births among non-owners and a net increase among owners. The estimates imply that a $10,000 increase leads to a 5 percent increase in Fertility rates among owners and a 2.4 percent decrease among non-owners. At the mean U.S. home ownership rate, these estimates imply that the net effect of a $10,000 increase in house prices is a 0.8 percent increase in current Period Fertility rates. Given underlying differences in home ownership rates, the predicted net effect of house price changes varies across demographic groups. In addition, we find that changes in house prices exert a larger effect on current Period birth rates than do changes in unemployment rates.

Jessica Nisen - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.

  • all time low Period Fertility in finland demographic drivers tempo effects and cohort implications
    Population Studies-a Journal of Demography, 2020
    Co-Authors: Julia Ingrid Sofia Hellstrand, Jessica Nisen, Mikko Myrskyla
    Abstract:

    The ongoing Period Fertility decline in the Nordic countries is particularly strong in Finland, where the total Fertility rate (TFR) reached an all-time low of 1.41 in 2018. We analyse the decrease in Finland's TFR in 2010-17, and assess its consequences for cohort Fertility using complementary approaches. Decomposition of this Fertility decline shows that first births and women aged <30 are making the largest contributions. However, women aged 30-39 are also, for the first time in decades, experiencing a sustained Fertility decline. Tempo adjustments to the TFR suggest that quantum change is part of the decline. Several forecasting methods indicate that cohort Fertility is likely to decline from the long-lasting level of 1.85-1.95 to 1.75 or lower among women born in the mid-1980s. Without an exceptionally strong recovery in Fertility, Finnish cohort Fertility is likely to decline to levels currently observed among countries with very low Fertility.

  • all time low Period Fertility in finland drivers tempo effects and cohort implications
    Research Papers in Economics, 2019
    Co-Authors: Julia Ingrid Sofia Hellstrand, Jessica Nisen, Mikko Myrskyla
    Abstract:

    In several European countries previously characterized by relatively high and stable cohort Fertility, and particularly in the Nordic countries, Period total Fertility rates (TFR) have declined since 2010. The largest of these declines has been observed in Finland, where the TFR reached an all-time low of 1.49 in 2017. We analyze the decrease in the TFR in Finland since 2010, and assess the consequences of this trend for the completed Fertility of women currently of childbearing age using complementary approaches that build on existing parametric and novel nonparametric methods. Decomposition of the Fertility decline shows that this trend has been close to universal, with all age groups and parities contributing, but with first-order births and ages 25-29 making the largest contributions. At older ages, we document an important qualitative shift in Fertility dynamics: for the first time since the early 1970s, women aged 30+ are experiencing a sustained Fertility decline. All of our forecasting methods suggest that cohort Fertility is likely to decline from the 1.85-1.95 level that was reached by the 1940-1970 cohorts, to a level of 1.75 or below among women born in the mid-1980s. The tempo-adjusted TFR also suggests that quantum change is driving the decline. These findings are evidence of a strong quantum effect, and are particularly striking because they call into question whether Finland will continue to be part of the Nordic Fertility regime, which has been characterized by high and stable Fertility.

Jose Antonio Ortega - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.