The Experts below are selected from a list of 70617 Experts worldwide ranked by ideXlab platform
Daniele Tumidei - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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combining Scenario Planning and multi criteria decision analysis in practice
LSE Research Online Documents on Economics, 2007Co-Authors: Gilberto Montibeller, Haidee Gummer, Daniele TumideiAbstract:The integrated use of Scenario Planning and Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) has been advocated as a powerful combination for providing decision support in strategic decisions. Scenario Planning helps decision makers in devising strategies and thinking about possible future Scenarios; while MCDA can support an indepth performance evaluation of each strategy, as well as in the design of more robust and better options. One of the frameworks proposed recently, by Goodwin & Wright, suggests the use of Scenario Planning with multi-attribute value theory, a mathematically simple, yet extensively researched and widely employed multi-criteria method. However, so far, such framework has been presented only using hypothetical problems. In this paper we describe two case-studies where this approach was used to support real-world strategic decisions. We discuss the challenges and limitations we encountered in applying it; and suggest some possible improvements that could be made to such framework.
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combining Scenario Planning and multi criteria decision analysis in practice
Journal of Multi-criteria Decision Analysis, 2006Co-Authors: Gilberto Montibeller, Haidee Gummer, Daniele TumideiAbstract:The integrated use of Scenario Planning and multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) has been advocated as a powerful combination for providing decision support in strategic decisions. Scenario Planning helps decision makers in devising strategies and thinking about possible future Scenarios; while MCDA can support an in-depth performance evaluation of each strategy, as well as in the design of more robust and better options. One of the frameworks proposed recently, by Goodwin & Wright, suggests the use of Scenario Planning with multi-attribute value theory, a mathematically simple, yet extensively researched and widely employed multi-criteria method. However, so far, such framework has been presented only using hypothetical problems. In this paper, we describe two case studies where this approach was used to support real-world strategic decisions. We discuss the challenges and limitations we encountered in applying it and suggest some possible improvements that could be made to such framework. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
George Wright - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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augmenting the intuitive logics Scenario Planning method for a more comprehensive analysis of causation
International Journal of Forecasting, 2017Co-Authors: James Derbyshire, George WrightAbstract:This paper shows the standard approach to Scenario Planning, known as ‘Intuitive Logics’, to be, in practice, overly-focused on uncovering cause of one type, known as ‘efficient cause’. We outline and apply a broader consideration of cause, leading to a more sophisticated analysis of uncertainty. Our focus is on incorporation of Aristotle’s nuanced analysis of causation. We incorporate the features of our augmented Scenario development approach in a practical step-by-step methodology and draw out several implications for expert knowledge elicitation.
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a decision analysis based framework for analysing stakeholder behaviour in Scenario Planning
QUT Business School, 2016Co-Authors: George Cairns, Paul Goodwin, George WrightAbstract:Scenario Planning is a method widely used by strategic planners to address uncertainty about the future. However, current methods either fail to address the future behaviour and impact of stakeholders or they treat the role of stakeholders informally. We present a practical decision-analysis-based methodology for analysing stakeholder objectives and likely behaviour within contested unfolding futures. We address issues of power, interest, and commitment to achieve desired outcomes across a broad stakeholder constituency. Drawing on frameworks for corporate social responsibility (CSR), we provide an illustrative example of our approach to analyse a complex contested issue that crosses geographic, organisational and cultural boundaries. Whilst strategies can be developed by individual organisations that consider the interests of others – for example in consideration of an organisation's CSR agenda – we show that our augmentation of Scenario method provides a further, nuanced, analysis of the power and objectives of all concerned stakeholders across a variety of unfolding futures. The resulting modelling framework is intended to yield insights and hence more informed decision making by individual stakeholders or regulators.
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preparing for the future development of an antifragile methodology that complements Scenario Planning by omitting causation
Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2014Co-Authors: James Derbyshire, George WrightAbstract:This paper demonstrates that the Intuitive Logics method of Scenario Planning emphasises the causal unfolding of future events and that this emphasis limits its ability to aid preparation for the future, for example by giving a misleading impression as to the usefulness of ‘weak signals’ or ‘early warnings’. We argue for the benefits of an alternative method that views uncertainty as originating from indeterminism. We develop and illustrate an ‘antifragile’ approach to preparing for the future and present it as a step-by-step, non-deterministic methodology that can be used as a replacement for, or as a complement to, the causally-focused approach of Scenario Planning.
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teaching Scenario Planning lessons from practice in academe and business
European Journal of Operational Research, 2009Co-Authors: George Wright, George Cairns, Paul GoodwinAbstract:In this paper, we engage with O’Brien’s [O’Brien, F.A., 2004. Scenario Planning – lessons for practice from teaching and learning. European Journal of Operational Research 152, 709–722] identification of both pitfalls in teaching Scenario Planning and proposed remedies for these. We consider these remedies in relation to our own experience – based on our practice in both the academic and business arenas – and we highlight further pitfalls and proposed remedies. Finally, we propose the use of “hard” multi-attribute decision analysis as a complement to “soft” Scenario Planning, in order to allow a more formal method of strategy evaluation against a range of constructed Scenarios, This approach is intended to remedy biases that are associated with holistic evaluations – such as lexicographic ranking – where undue attention is paid to particular strategic objectives at the expense of others. From this discussion, we seek to contribute to cumulative refinement of the Scenario process.
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Scenario Planning interventions in organizations an analysis of the causes of success and failure
Futures, 2008Co-Authors: George Wright, Kees Van Der Heijden, George Burt, Ron Bradfield, George CairnsAbstract:This paper presents a case analysis of a successful Scenario intervention in an organization. This intervention is compared and contrasted with an unsuccessful one reported in Hodgkinson and Wright [Confronting strategic inertia in a top management team: learning from failure, Organization Studies 23 (2002)949–977]. We demonstrate that analysis of the answers given by workshop participants in a pre-intervention interview can be helpful in determining the receptiveness of an organization to a subsequent Scenario intervention. We theorize that strategic inertia-characterized by coping patterns of bolstering failing strategy, procrastination (over a strategic dilemma) and buck-passing (the responsibility for the dilemma's resolution), can be caused by the psychological attenuation of the perceived level of environmental threat to the organization, culminating in unconflicted adherence to the currently followed strategy. We contend that the expression of such coping behaviour is antithetical to a subsequent successful Scenario exercise since, if the exercise fails to identify an unconflicted strategic alternative, the sharp focus of the Scenarios on futures unfavourable to business-as-usual strategy will re-activate the cognitive stress-reduction mechanisms. Strategic inertia will thus be reinforced. We conclude with a review of the implications of our diagnosis for reflective practitioners. Our paper is divided into four sections. In Section 1, we overview writings on inertia in strategic decision making. We pay especial attention to identifying potential causes of inertia. Next, we present Janis and Mann's [Decision Making, Free Press, New York, 1979] views of the psychological processes invoked by conflicted decisions and analyse the relevance of this laboratory-based theory to provide a psychological explanation of strategic inertia. Finally, we briefly describe the Scenario intervention process and argue that it contains the potential to overcome strategic inertia. In Section 2, we review an already-published study of an unsuccessful Scenario Planning intervention, which illustrates the operation of components of Janis and Mann's model. Next, in Section 3, we focus on our own case investigation of a successful Scenario Planning intervention. The early part of this section documents the “success”, whilst the latter part analyses the causes of the success—again using the components of Janis and Mann's model. We conclude in Section 4, where we compare and contrast the application of Janis and Mann's model to both cases and we demonstrate that application of the model to pre-intervention interview data can aid the practitioner determine, at the outset, whether or not the organizational context will be receptive to the intervention.
Iain J Mckendrick - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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animal health surveillance in scotland in 2030 using Scenario Planning to develop strategies in the context of brexit
Frontiers in Veterinary Science, 2017Co-Authors: Lisa Boden, Harriet Auty, Aaron Reeves, Gustaf Rydevik, Paul R Bessell, Iain J MckendrickAbstract:Animal health surveillance is necessary to protect human and animal health, rural economies and the environment from the consequences of large-scale disease outbreaks. In Scotland, since the Kinnaird review in 2011, efforts have been made to engage with stakeholders to ensure that the strategic goals of surveillance are better aligned with the needs of the end-users and other beneficiaries. The aims of this study were to engage with Scottish surveillance stakeholders and multidisciplinary experts to inform the future long-term strategy for animal health surveillance in Scotland. In this paper, we describe the use of Scenario Planning as an effective tool for the creation and exploration of five plausible long-term futures; we describe prioritisation of critical drivers of change (i.e. international trade policy, data sharing philosophies and public versus private resourcing of surveillance capacity) that will unpredictably influence the future implementation of animal health surveillance activities and we present ten participant-developed strategies to support three long-term visions to improve future resilience of animal health surveillance and contingency Planning for animal and zoonotic disease outbreaks in Scotland. In the absence of any certainty about the nature of post-Brexit trade agreements for agriculture, participants considered the best investments for long-term resilience to include: data collection strategies to improve animal health benchmarking, user-benefit strategies to improve digital literacy in farming communities and investment strategies to increase veterinary and scientific research capacity in rural areas. This is the first Scenario Planning study to explore stakeholder beliefs and perceptions about important environmental, technological, societal, political and legal drivers (in addition to epidemiological “risk factors”) and effective strategies to manage future uncertainties for both the Scottish livestock industry and animal health surveillance after Brexit. This insight from stakeholders is important in order to improve uptake and implementation of animal heath surveillance activities and the future resilience of the livestock industry. The conclusions drawn from this study are applicable not only to Scotland, but to other countries and international organizations involved in global animal health surveillance activities.
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Scenario Planning as communicative action lessons from participatory exercises conducted for the scottish livestock industry
Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2017Co-Authors: Dominic Duckett, Lisa Boden, Harriet Auty, Paul R Bessell, Annie Mckee, Leeann Sutherland, C E Kyle, Iain J MckendrickAbstract:Based on Habermas' Theory of Communicative Action, this paper critiques the transparency and legitimacy of participatory Scenario Planning, considering a case study of Scenario development for the livestock industry within Scotland. The paper considers the extent to which the case study approximates the conditions for ‘ideal speech situations’ and how these conditions could be applied more widely in participatory Scenario Planning. The authors explore the rationale for participatory Scenario Planning within the science–policy interface with critical reference to the corporate context in which Scenario Planning has evolved. The aim is to optimise the potential for its use in the context of socio-technical and environmental governance. Researcher co-reflections on the case study are mapped within a matrix of indices representing conditions for ideal speech situations. Further analytical categories highlight the extent to which ideal speech was approximated. Although many of the constraints on achieving ideal speech situations reflect intransigent, practical logistics of organising participatory exercises, our novel approach enables the systematic identification of some important issues and provides a conceptual framework for understanding how they interrelate that may prove useful to practitioners and theorists alike.
Gilberto Montibeller - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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combining Scenario Planning and multi criteria decision analysis in practice
LSE Research Online Documents on Economics, 2007Co-Authors: Gilberto Montibeller, Haidee Gummer, Daniele TumideiAbstract:The integrated use of Scenario Planning and Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) has been advocated as a powerful combination for providing decision support in strategic decisions. Scenario Planning helps decision makers in devising strategies and thinking about possible future Scenarios; while MCDA can support an indepth performance evaluation of each strategy, as well as in the design of more robust and better options. One of the frameworks proposed recently, by Goodwin & Wright, suggests the use of Scenario Planning with multi-attribute value theory, a mathematically simple, yet extensively researched and widely employed multi-criteria method. However, so far, such framework has been presented only using hypothetical problems. In this paper we describe two case-studies where this approach was used to support real-world strategic decisions. We discuss the challenges and limitations we encountered in applying it; and suggest some possible improvements that could be made to such framework.
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combining Scenario Planning and multi criteria decision analysis in practice
Journal of Multi-criteria Decision Analysis, 2006Co-Authors: Gilberto Montibeller, Haidee Gummer, Daniele TumideiAbstract:The integrated use of Scenario Planning and multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) has been advocated as a powerful combination for providing decision support in strategic decisions. Scenario Planning helps decision makers in devising strategies and thinking about possible future Scenarios; while MCDA can support an in-depth performance evaluation of each strategy, as well as in the design of more robust and better options. One of the frameworks proposed recently, by Goodwin & Wright, suggests the use of Scenario Planning with multi-attribute value theory, a mathematically simple, yet extensively researched and widely employed multi-criteria method. However, so far, such framework has been presented only using hypothetical problems. In this paper, we describe two case studies where this approach was used to support real-world strategic decisions. We discuss the challenges and limitations we encountered in applying it and suggest some possible improvements that could be made to such framework. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Micheline Van Riemsdijk - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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climate change Scenario Planning in alaska s national parks stakeholder involvement in the decision making process
Applied Geography, 2013Co-Authors: Kathleen M Ernst, Micheline Van RiemsdijkAbstract:Abstract This article studies the participation of stakeholders in climate change decision-making in Alaska's National Parks. We place stakeholder participation within literatures on environmental and climate change decision-making. We conducted participant observation and interviews in two Planning workshops to investigate the decision-making process, and our findings are three-fold. First, the inclusion of diverse stakeholders expanded climate change decision-making beyond National Park Service (NPS) institutional constraints. Second, workshops of the Climate Change Scenario Planning Project (CCSPP) enhanced institutional understandings of participants' attitudes towards climate change and climate change decision-making. Third, the geographical context of climate change influences the decision-making process. As the first regional approach to climate change decision-making within the NPS, the CCSPP serves as a model for future climate change Planning in public land agencies. This study shows how the participation of stakeholders can contribute to robust decisions, may move climate change decision-making beyond institutional barriers, and can provide information about attitudes towards climate change decision-making.
