The Experts below are selected from a list of 35031 Experts worldwide ranked by ideXlab platform
Xijin Tang - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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Evolution Analysis of Societal Risk Events by Risk Maps
Journal of Systems Science and Systems Engineering, 2020Co-Authors: Xijin TangAbstract:Event evolution analysis which provides an effective approach to capture the main context of a story from explosive increased news texts has become the critical basis for many real applications, such as crisis and emergency management and decision making. Especially, the development of Societal Risk events which may cause some possible harm to society or individuals has been heavily concerned by both the government and the public. In order to capture the evolution and trends of Societal Risk events, this paper presents an improved algorithm based on the method of information maps. It contains an event-level cluster generation algorithm and an evaluation algorithm. The main work includes: 1) Word embedding representation is adopted and event-level clusters are chosen as nodes of the events evolution chains which may comprehensively present the underlying structure of events. Meanwhile, clusters that consist of Risk-labeled events enable to illustrate how events evolve along the time with transitions of Risks. 2) One real-world case, the event of “Chinese Red Cross”, is studied and a series of experiments are conducted. 3) An evaluation algorithm is proposed on the basis of indicators of map construction without massive human-annotated dataset. Our approach for event evolution analysis automatically generates a visual evolution of Societal Risk events, displaying a clear and structural picture of events development.
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WISA - Extracting 5W from Baidu Hot News Search Words for Societal Risk Events Analysis
Web Information Systems and Applications, 2018Co-Authors: Xijin TangAbstract:Nowadays Risk events occur more frequently than ever in China during the critical periods of social and economic transformation and spread rapidly via a variety of social media, which have impacts on social stability. Online Societal Risk perception is acquired by mapping online community concerns into respective Societal Risks. What we concern is how to recognize and describe Societal Risk events in a formal and structured way. So to get a structured view of those Risk events, we propose an event extraction framework on HNSW including 5 elements, namely where, who, when, why, and what (5W). The task for extracting 5W of Risk events is converted into different machine learning tasks. Three methods are explored to tackle the extraction tasks. The framework of 5W extraction on the basis of online concerns can not only timely access to Societal Risk perception but also expose the events by a structured image, which is of great help for social management to monitor online public opinion timely and efficiently.
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Generating Risk Maps for Evolution Analysis of Societal Risk Events
Communications in Computer and Information Science, 2018Co-Authors: Xijin TangAbstract:The development of Societal Risk events has been heavily concerned by both the government and the public. Faced with ever-increasing information, people struggle to follow the evolution of Societal Risk events. In order to identify the evolution of Societal Risk events, this paper presents an improved algorithm based on the method of generating information maps. One real-world case is illustrated and the evaluation is given. The improved approach for the evolution analysis whose results show the promising performance may be used for post-operation analysis, and decision-making process for government management.
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A Causality Analysis of Societal Risk Perception and Stock Market Volatility in China
Journal of Systems Science and Systems Engineering, 2018Co-Authors: Xijin TangAbstract:Modern China is undergoing a variety of social conflicts as the arrival of new era with the transformation of the principal contradiction. Then monitoring the society stable is a huge workload. Online Societal Risk perception is acquired by mapping on-line public concerns respectively into Societal Risk events including national security, economy & finance, public morals, daily life, social stability, government management, and resources & environment, and then provides one kind of measurement toward the society state. Obviously, stable and harmonious social situations are the basic guarantee for the healthy development of the stock market. Thus we concern whether the variations of the Societal Risk are related to stock market volatility. We study their relationships by two steps, first the relationships between search trends and Societal Risk perception; next the relationships between Societal Risk perception and stock volatility. The weekend and holiday effects in China stock market are taken into consideration. Three different econometric methods are explored to observe the impacts of variations of Societal Risk on Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Composite Index. 3 major findings are addressed. Firstly, there exist causal relations between Baidu Index and Societal Risk perception. Secondly, the perception of finance & economy, social stability, and government management has distinguishing effects on the volatility of both Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Composite Index. Thirdly, the weekend and holiday effects of Societal Risk perception on the stock market are verified. The research demonstrates that capturing Societal Risk based on on-line public concerns is feasible and meaningful.
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extracting 5w from baidu hot news search words for Societal Risk events analysis
Workshop on Information Security Applications, 2018Co-Authors: Xijin TangAbstract:Nowadays Risk events occur more frequently than ever in China during the critical periods of social and economic transformation and spread rapidly via a variety of social media, which have impacts on social stability. Online Societal Risk perception is acquired by mapping online community concerns into respective Societal Risks. What we concern is how to recognize and describe Societal Risk events in a formal and structured way. So to get a structured view of those Risk events, we propose an event extraction framework on HNSW including 5 elements, namely where, who, when, why, and what (5W). The task for extracting 5W of Risk events is converted into different machine learning tasks. Three methods are explored to tackle the extraction tasks. The framework of 5W extraction on the basis of online concerns can not only timely access to Societal Risk perception but also expose the events by a structured image, which is of great help for social management to monitor online public opinion timely and efficiently.
Jindong Chen - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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An Empirical Feasibility Study of Societal Risk Classification Toward BBS Posts
Journal of Systems Science and Systems Engineering, 2018Co-Authors: Jindong Chen, Xiaoji Zhou, Xijin TangAbstract:Societal Risk classification is the fundamental issue for online Societal Risk monitoring. To show the challenge and feasibility of Societal Risk classification toward BBS posts, an empirical analysis is implemented in this paper. Through effectiveness analysis, Support Vector Machine based on Bag-Of-Words (BOW-SVM) is adopted for challenge validation, and the distributed document embeddings of BBS posts generated by Paragraph Vector are applied to feasibility study. Based on BOW-SVM, cross-validations of BBS posts labeled by different groups and annotators are conducted. The big fluctuation of cross-validation results indicates the differences of individual Risk perceptions, which brings more challenges to Societal Risk classification. Furthermore, based on the distributed document embeddings of BBS posts, the pairwise similarities of more than 300 thousands BBS posts from different Societal Risk categories are compared. The higher similarities of BBS posts in the same Societal Risk category reveal that BBS posts in the same Societal Risk category share more features than BBS posts in different categories, which manifests the feasibility of Societal Risk classification of BBS posts, and also reflects the possibility to improve the performance of Societal Risk monitoring.
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Ensemble of multiple kNN classifiers for Societal Risk classification
Journal of Systems Science and Systems Engineering, 2017Co-Authors: Jindong Chen, Xijin TangAbstract:Societal Risk classification is a fundamental and complex issue for Societal Risk perception. To conduct Societal Risk classification, Tianya Forum posts are selected as the data source, and four kinds of representations: string representation, term-frequency representation, TF-IDF representation and the distributed representation of BBS posts are applied. Using edit distance or cosine similarity as distance metric, four k-Nearest Neighbor (kNN) classifiers based on different representations are developed and compared. Owing to the priority of word order and semantic extraction of the neural network model Paragraph Vector, kNN based on the distributed representation generated by Paragraph Vector (kNN-PV) shows effectiveness for Societal Risk classification. Furthermore, to improve the performance of Societal Risk classification, through different weights, kNN-PV is combined with other three kNN classifiers as an ensemble model. Through brute force grid search method, the optimal weights are assigned to different kNN classifiers. Compared with kNN-PV, the experimental results reveal that Macro-F of the ensemble method is significantly improved for Societal Risk classification.
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The distributed representation for Societal Risk classification toward BBS posts
Journal of Systems Science and Complexity, 2016Co-Authors: Jindong Chen, Xijin TangAbstract:The Risk classification of BBS posts is important to the evaluation of Societal Risk level within a period. Using the posts collected from Tianya forum as the data source, the authors adopted the Societal Risk indicators from socio psychology, and conduct document-level multiple Societal Risk classification of BBS posts. To effectively capture the semantics and word order of documents, a shallow neural network as Paragraph Vector is applied to realize the distributed vector representations of the posts in the vector space. Based on the document vectors, the authors apply one classification method KNN to identify the Societal Risk category of the posts. The experimental results reveal that paragraph vector in document-level Societal Risk classification achieves much faster training speed and at least 10% improvements of F-measures than Bag-of-Words. Furthermore, the performance of paragraph vector is also superior to edit distance and Lucene-based search method. The present work is the first attempt of combining document embedding method with socio psychology research results to public opinions area.
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KSEM - Ensemble of SVM Classifiers with Different Representations for Societal Risk Classification
Knowledge Science Engineering and Management, 2015Co-Authors: Jindong Chen, Xijin TangAbstract:Using the posts of Tianya Forum as the data source and adopting the Societal Risk indicators from socio psychology, we conduct document-level multiple Societal Risk classification of BBS posts. Two kinds of models are applied to generate the representations of posts respectively: Bag-of-Words focuses on extracting the occurrence information of words in posts, and a deep learning model as Post Vector is designed to capture the semantics and word order of posts. Based on the different post representations, two types of support vector machine SVM classifiers are developed and compared in the Societal Risk classification of the posts. Furthermore, as the complementary information contained in the two different post representations, several SVM ensemble methods at the decision score level of the two SVM classifiers are proposed to improve the performance of Societal Risk classification. The experimental results reveal that the SVM ensemble method achieves better results in document-level Societal Risk classification than SVM based on single representation.
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ensemble of svm classifiers with different representations for Societal Risk classification
Knowledge Science Engineering and Management, 2015Co-Authors: Jindong Chen, Xijin TangAbstract:Using the posts of Tianya Forum as the data source and adopting the Societal Risk indicators from socio psychology, we conduct document-level multiple Societal Risk classification of BBS posts. Two kinds of models are applied to generate the representations of posts respectively: Bag-of-Words focuses on extracting the occurrence information of words in posts, and a deep learning model as Post Vector is designed to capture the semantics and word order of posts. Based on the different post representations, two types of support vector machine SVM classifiers are developed and compared in the Societal Risk classification of the posts. Furthermore, as the complementary information contained in the two different post representations, several SVM ensemble methods at the decision score level of the two SVM classifiers are proposed to improve the performance of Societal Risk classification. The experimental results reveal that the SVM ensemble method achieves better results in document-level Societal Risk classification than SVM based on single representation.
Etienne Mullet - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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Societal Risk Perception: A Comparison of 19 Countries
2015Co-Authors: Bruno Chauvin, Dimitra Macri, Etienne MulletAbstract:The study was aimed at structuring the crosscountry differences in Risk perception that have been reported in the literature, using cluster analysis. A 30-hazard x 19-country matrix was composed using as inputs the mean Risk estimation levels available in the literature, and cluster analysis was conducted on this matrix. Six clusters of countries were found: A Communist bloc cluster (USSR and Hungary), a Nordic cluster (Finland, Norway, Sweden), an Arab cluster (Egypt and Kuwait), a Developing countries cluster (Brazil and South Korea), a Western cluster (France, Portugal, Spain, USA), and a cluster comprised of four countries or territories (Burkina Faso, China-Hong-Kong, China-Macao, Russia) which only common denominator seems to be that these countries are countries in which many economical and/or Societal problems exist. The factors that may explain this clustering are discussed, and a new, more analytic approach to cross-national differences in Risk perception is suggested.
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Societal Risk perception in present day Russia.
Human and Ecological Risk Assessment: An International Journal, 2009Co-Authors: Natalia Rodionova, Geneviève Vinsonneau, Sheila Rivière, Etienne MulletAbstract:The study analyzed new information regarding the way in which present day Russians (living in Moscow or Tula) perceive Societal Risks. The main concerns of Russians in year 2003 were essentially the same ones that were identified in previous studies conducted on Western samples: violence, sex, and addiction-type hazards received the highest Risk ratings. Women's mean Risk judgments were systematically higher than men's mean judgments, and older participants' mean judgments were higher than younger participants' mean judgments regarding domestic hazards. Technically trained people perceived higher Societal Risk than people with training in the humanities, but the difference between people with technical training and people trained in the humanities was more accentuated among younger people than among the elderly. Also, men living in Tula perceived themselves as less exposed to Risks of violence than women living in Tula and both men and women living in Moscow.
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Societal Risk perception among african villagers without access to the media
Risk Analysis, 2008Co-Authors: Lonzozou Kpanake, Bruno Chauvin, Etienne MulletAbstract:The impact of the media on people's Risk perception was assessed by comparing Risk ratings obtained from African villagers without access to the media with Risk ratings obtained from African city-dwellers with access to the media and Risk ratings obtained from French participants. The overall mean Risk judgment observed among the Togolese villagers was lower than the mean rating observed among the Togolese city-dwellers, and lower than the mean rating observed among the French. The linear association observed between the Togolese villagers' ratings and the Togolese city-dweller ratings and the French ratings was moderate. The impact of the media on Risk perception was estimated to be an increase of about 15% of the overall mean ratings, and to about 31% of the variance of the mean ratings. This impact was independent of educational level.
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New Age Beliefs and Societal Risk Perception1
Journal of Applied Social Psychology, 2008Co-Authors: Bruno Chauvin, Danièle Hermand, Etienne MulletAbstract:The New Age movement is a transpersonal movement focused on mystic awakening and human potential development. It has become an important component in modern Risk discourse, as it often goes hand in hand with technology opposition and worries about technology Risks. The present study examined the possible relationships between New Age beliefs and Societal Risk perception. It was shown that several hazards—particularly the ones at the center of current debates about security policies and environmental policies—were perceived as significantly Riskier by the New Agers than by others. These (hot) hazards include nuclear waste storage, chemical plants, urban violence, genetically engineered organisms, marijuana, and hospital waste.
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Cross-National Validation of an Eight-Factor Model of Societal Risk Perception
Human and Ecological Risk Assessment: An International Journal, 2007Co-Authors: Dimitra Macri, Etienne MulletAbstract:ABSTRACT This study cross-nationally tested an eight-factor model of Societal Risk perception. The factors in the model were: Common individual hazards, Pollutants, Energy production and public transportation, Outdoor activities, Sex, deviance and addictions, Medical care, Weapons, and Psychotropic drugs. Using confirmatory factor analyses, the model was tested on a sample of Greek students and on a sample of French students, and was shown to satisfactorily account for the data in both samples. This model may be considered as a potentially useful tool for studying cross-national as well as individual differences (e.g., age, gender, worldviews or personality) in Risk perception. Future studies are needed to determine: (a) whether this model applies to samples composed of persons of different ages or composed of persons from non-Western countries and (b) whether this model could be usefully expanded with one or more factors.
B Maaskant - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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the use of individual and Societal Risk criteria within the dutch flood safety policy nationwide estimates of Societal Risk and policy applications
Risk Analysis, 2011Co-Authors: S N Jonkman, Ruben Jongejan, B MaaskantAbstract:The Dutch government is in the process of revising its flood safety policy. The current safety standards for flood defenses in the Netherlands are largely based on the outcomes of cost-benefit analyses. Loss of life has not been considered separately in the choice for current standards. This article presents the results of a research project that evaluated the potential roles of two Risk metrics, individual and Societal Risk, to support decision making about new flood safety standards. These Risk metrics are already used in the Dutch major hazards policy for the evaluation of Risks to the public. Individual Risk concerns the annual probability of death of a person. Societal Risk concerns the probability of an event with many fatalities. Technical aspects of the use of individual and Societal Risk metrics in flood Risk assessments as well as policy implications are discussed. Preliminary estimates of nationwide levels of Societal Risk are presented. Societal Risk levels appear relatively high in the southwestern part of the country where densely populated dike rings are threatened by a combination of river and coastal floods. It was found that cumulation, the simultaneous flooding of multiple dike rings during a single flood event, has significant impact on the national level of Societal Risk. Options for the application of the individual and Societal Risk in the new flood safety policy are presented and discussed.
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New safety standards for coastal flood defences in the Netherlands
Coastal Engineering Proceedings, 2011Co-Authors: S N Jonkman, Ruben Jongejan, B Maaskant, J.k. VrijlingAbstract:The Dutch government is in the process of revising its flood safety policy. The current safety standards for flood defences in the Netherlands are largely based on the outcomes of cost-benefit analyses. Loss of life has not been considered separately in the choice for current standards. This article presents the results of a research project that evaluated the potential roles of two Risk metrics, individual and Societal Risk, to support decision-making about new flood safety standards. These Risk metrics are already used in the Dutch major hazards policy for the evaluation of Risks to the public. Individual Risk concerns the annual probability of death of a person. Societal Risk concerns the probability of an event with many fatalities. Technical aspects of the use of individual and Societal Risk metrics in flood Risk assessments as well as policy implications are discussed. Preliminary estimates of nationwide levels of Societal Risk are presented. Societal Risk levels appear relatively high in the South Western part of the country where densely populated dike rings are threatened by a combination of river and coastal floods. Options for the application of the individual and Societal Risk in the new flood safety policy are presented and discussed.
S N Jonkman - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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the use of individual and Societal Risk criteria within the dutch flood safety policy nationwide estimates of Societal Risk and policy applications
Risk Analysis, 2011Co-Authors: S N Jonkman, Ruben Jongejan, B MaaskantAbstract:The Dutch government is in the process of revising its flood safety policy. The current safety standards for flood defenses in the Netherlands are largely based on the outcomes of cost-benefit analyses. Loss of life has not been considered separately in the choice for current standards. This article presents the results of a research project that evaluated the potential roles of two Risk metrics, individual and Societal Risk, to support decision making about new flood safety standards. These Risk metrics are already used in the Dutch major hazards policy for the evaluation of Risks to the public. Individual Risk concerns the annual probability of death of a person. Societal Risk concerns the probability of an event with many fatalities. Technical aspects of the use of individual and Societal Risk metrics in flood Risk assessments as well as policy implications are discussed. Preliminary estimates of nationwide levels of Societal Risk are presented. Societal Risk levels appear relatively high in the southwestern part of the country where densely populated dike rings are threatened by a combination of river and coastal floods. It was found that cumulation, the simultaneous flooding of multiple dike rings during a single flood event, has significant impact on the national level of Societal Risk. Options for the application of the individual and Societal Risk in the new flood safety policy are presented and discussed.
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New safety standards for coastal flood defences in the Netherlands
Coastal Engineering Proceedings, 2011Co-Authors: S N Jonkman, Ruben Jongejan, B Maaskant, J.k. VrijlingAbstract:The Dutch government is in the process of revising its flood safety policy. The current safety standards for flood defences in the Netherlands are largely based on the outcomes of cost-benefit analyses. Loss of life has not been considered separately in the choice for current standards. This article presents the results of a research project that evaluated the potential roles of two Risk metrics, individual and Societal Risk, to support decision-making about new flood safety standards. These Risk metrics are already used in the Dutch major hazards policy for the evaluation of Risks to the public. Individual Risk concerns the annual probability of death of a person. Societal Risk concerns the probability of an event with many fatalities. Technical aspects of the use of individual and Societal Risk metrics in flood Risk assessments as well as policy implications are discussed. Preliminary estimates of nationwide levels of Societal Risk are presented. Societal Risk levels appear relatively high in the South Western part of the country where densely populated dike rings are threatened by a combination of river and coastal floods. Options for the application of the individual and Societal Risk in the new flood safety policy are presented and discussed.
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The potential use of individual and Societal Risk criteria within the Dutch flood safety policy (part 1): Basic principles
2009Co-Authors: Ruben Jongejan, S N JonkmanAbstract:The Dutch government is in the process of revising its national flood safety policy. The current Dutch Flood Defense Act lays down design standards for the Dutch flood defenses. These standards have been based on/rationalized by economic optimizations in which investment costs are balanced against the discounted value of (potential) future losses. Loss of life is not considered separately. This paper presents the results of a research project that evaluated the potential roles of two Risk metrics: individual and Societal Risk. These metrics are already used in the in the Dutch major hazards policy for the evaluation of Risks to the public. Individual Risk concerns the annual probability of death of an average, unprotected person. Societal Risk concerns the probability of a multi-fatality event. This paper discusses technical aspects of the use of individual and Societal Risk metrics in flood Risk management, as well as policy implications.
