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Wilhelm Kohler - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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european economic integration WTO Membership immigration and offshoring
Research Papers in Economics, 2014Co-Authors: Wilhelm KohlerAbstract:This volume is a collection of papers that apply general equilibrium theory in order to obtain policy relevant insights on topical issues of international trade and migration. The first set of papers focuses on European integration, applying dynamic numerical general equilibrium methods to quantify the effects of geographic extension of the European Union, including the effects of Eastern enlargement of the EU on incumbent Western member countries. The second set of papers deals with the trade effects of WTO Membership, with special focus on the so-called extensive country margin, where new international trading relationships are formed. The third set of papers focuses on immigration, offering a rigorous theoretical analysis of the so-called immigration surplus as well as an econometric estimation of the gains and pain that Germany has forgone by initially restricting immigration from new EU member countries after the EU's Eastern enlargement in 2004. And finally, the book contains a set of theoretical papers on the distributional effects of offshoring.
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european economic integration WTO Membership immigration and offshoring
2013Co-Authors: Wilhelm KohlerAbstract:Dynamic Effects of Tariff Liberalization: An Intertemporal CGE Approach Commercial Policy and Dynamic Adjustment Under Monopolistic Competition Austria in the European Union: Dynamic Gains From Integration and Integration and Distributional Implications Eastern Enlargement of the EU: A Dynamic General Equilibrium Perspective Innovation, Capital Accumulation and Economic Transition An Incumbent Country View on Eastern Enlargement of the EU Eastern Enlargement of the EU: Jobs, Investment and Welfare in Present Member Countries Eastern Enlargement of the EU: A Comprehensive Welfare Assessment The Lisbon Goal of the EU: Rhetoric or Substance The WTO Dispute Settlement Mechanism: Battlefield or Cooperation Exploring the Intensive and Extensive Margins of World Trade Does WTO Membership Make a Difference at the Extensive Margin of World Trade? WTO Membership and the Extensive Margin of World Trade: New Evidence Restrictive Immigration Policy in Germany: Pains and Gains Foregone? Can International Migration Ever Be Made a Pareto Improvement? Immigration and Native Welfare Immigration and Wages in General Equilibrium: A Theoretical Perspective A Specific-Factors View on Outsourcing The Distributional Effects of International Fragmentation Aspects of International Fragmentation International Outsourcing and Factor Prices With Multistage Production The Bazaar Effect, Unbundling of Comparative Advantage, and Migration Offshoring: Why Do Stories Differ? Sourcing Premia With Incomplete Contracts: Theory and Evidence.
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modelling the extensive margin of world trade new evidence on gatt and WTO Membership
Munich Reprints in Economics, 2010Co-Authors: Gabriel Felbermayr, Wilhelm KohlerAbstract:Recent literature has argued that, contrary to the results of a seminal paper by Rose (2004), General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT)/World Trade Organization (WTO) Membership does promote bilateral trade, at least for developed economies and if Membership includes non-formal compliance. We review the literature to identify open issues. We then develop a simple extension of the gravity model that gives rise to an extensive country margin of trade separating positive trade from zero trade country pairs. The model is used to identify WTO Membership effects at both the intensive and the extensive margins. Empirical estimation of this model, based on Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood methods with exporter and importer fixed effects, allows us to readdress the empirical issue of whether GATT/WTO Membership does or does not promote trade. We find that GATT Membership was successful on the extensive margin of world trade but not on the intensive margin. For the recent WTO episode (1995-2008), we find consistent and robust evidence for a substantial trade-creating role of Membership which is driven primarily by the intensive margin. WTO Membership results in higher bilateral trade of about 40 per cent.
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does WTO Membership make a difference at the extensive margin of world trade
Palgrave Macmillan Books, 2010Co-Authors: Gabriel Felbermayr, Wilhelm KohlerAbstract:Becoming a member of the World Trade Organization (WTO) is not just a question of “raising one’s hand.” Accession is subject to a complex negotiation process, which is costly and which involves demands from existing member countries that applicant countries do not necessarily consider to be in their own immediate interest. Perhaps inevitably bilateral or regional arrangements may often seem more attractive than WTO Membership. Accession commitments relate to market access, as well as policy rules not directly related to trade. Both add up to something like a “price” for WTO Membership.1 Although the price tag is negotiable, the negotiating process is somewhat biased in favor of existing members. Moreover, there is evidence that the price has risen through time; see Evenett and Primo Braga (2005). Yet, countries are willing to pay this “price.” so there must be a benefit. Arguably the most important and immediate benefit is an expected increase in exports to existing member countries, beyond the levels that would otherwise be reached.
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WTO Membership and the extensive margin of world trade new evidence
Research Papers in Economics, 2009Co-Authors: Gabriel Felbermayr, Wilhelm KohlerAbstract:Recent literature has argued that, contrary to the results of a seminal paper by Rose (2004), WTO Membership does promote bilateral trade, at least for developed economies and if Membership includes non-formal compliance. We review the literature in order to identify open issues. We then develop the simplest possible \corner-solutions" version of the gravity model which serves as a framework to readdress these issues. We focus on the extensive margin of trade that separates positive-trade from zero-trade country pairs. We argue that the model can be consistently estimated using Poisson pseudo-maximum-likelihood methods with exporter and importer xed eects. We account for coding issues and the potential heterogeneity of the WTO Membership which recent contributions have stressed. While we nd
Gabriel Felbermayr - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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on the heterogeneous trade and welfare effects of gatt WTO Membership
Social Science Research Network, 2020Co-Authors: Gabriel Felbermayr, Mario Larch, Erdal Yalcin, Yoto V YotovAbstract:We build on the latest developments in the structural gravity literature to quantify the partial and general equilibrium effects of GATT/WTO Membership on trade and welfare. Using an extensive database covering manufacturing trade for 186 countries over the period 1980-2016, we find that the average impact of GATT/WTO Membership on trade among member counties is large, positive, and significant. We contribute to the literature by estimating country-specific estimates and find them to vary widely across the countries in our sample with poorer members benefitting more. Using these estimates, we simulate the general equilibrium effects of GATT/WTO on welfare, which are sizable and heterogeneous across members, and relatively small for non-member countries. We show that countries not experiencing positive trade effects from joining GATT/WTO can still gain in terms of welfare, due to beneficial terms-of-trade effects.
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modelling the extensive margin of world trade new evidence on gatt and WTO Membership
Munich Reprints in Economics, 2010Co-Authors: Gabriel Felbermayr, Wilhelm KohlerAbstract:Recent literature has argued that, contrary to the results of a seminal paper by Rose (2004), General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT)/World Trade Organization (WTO) Membership does promote bilateral trade, at least for developed economies and if Membership includes non-formal compliance. We review the literature to identify open issues. We then develop a simple extension of the gravity model that gives rise to an extensive country margin of trade separating positive trade from zero trade country pairs. The model is used to identify WTO Membership effects at both the intensive and the extensive margins. Empirical estimation of this model, based on Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood methods with exporter and importer fixed effects, allows us to readdress the empirical issue of whether GATT/WTO Membership does or does not promote trade. We find that GATT Membership was successful on the extensive margin of world trade but not on the intensive margin. For the recent WTO episode (1995-2008), we find consistent and robust evidence for a substantial trade-creating role of Membership which is driven primarily by the intensive margin. WTO Membership results in higher bilateral trade of about 40 per cent.
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does WTO Membership make a difference at the extensive margin of world trade
Palgrave Macmillan Books, 2010Co-Authors: Gabriel Felbermayr, Wilhelm KohlerAbstract:Becoming a member of the World Trade Organization (WTO) is not just a question of “raising one’s hand.” Accession is subject to a complex negotiation process, which is costly and which involves demands from existing member countries that applicant countries do not necessarily consider to be in their own immediate interest. Perhaps inevitably bilateral or regional arrangements may often seem more attractive than WTO Membership. Accession commitments relate to market access, as well as policy rules not directly related to trade. Both add up to something like a “price” for WTO Membership.1 Although the price tag is negotiable, the negotiating process is somewhat biased in favor of existing members. Moreover, there is evidence that the price has risen through time; see Evenett and Primo Braga (2005). Yet, countries are willing to pay this “price.” so there must be a benefit. Arguably the most important and immediate benefit is an expected increase in exports to existing member countries, beyond the levels that would otherwise be reached.
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WTO Membership and the extensive margin of world trade new evidence
Research Papers in Economics, 2009Co-Authors: Gabriel Felbermayr, Wilhelm KohlerAbstract:Recent literature has argued that, contrary to the results of a seminal paper by Rose (2004), WTO Membership does promote bilateral trade, at least for developed economies and if Membership includes non-formal compliance. We review the literature in order to identify open issues. We then develop the simplest possible \corner-solutions" version of the gravity model which serves as a framework to readdress these issues. We focus on the extensive margin of trade that separates positive-trade from zero-trade country pairs. We argue that the model can be consistently estimated using Poisson pseudo-maximum-likelihood methods with exporter and importer xed eects. We account for coding issues and the potential heterogeneity of the WTO Membership which recent contributions have stressed. While we nd
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WTO Membership and the extensive margin of world trade new evidence
Social Science Research Network, 2009Co-Authors: Wilhelm Kohler, Gabriel FelbermayrAbstract:Recent literature has argued that, contrary to the results of a seminal paper by Rose (2004), WTO Membership does promote bilateral trade, at least for developed economies and if Membership includes non-formal compliance. We review the literature in order to identify open issues. We then develop the simplest possible “corner-solutions" version of the gravity model which serves as a framework to readdress these issues. We focus on the extensive margin of trade that separates positive-trade from zero-trade country pairs. We argue that the model can be consistently estimated using Poisson pseudo-maximum-likelihood methods with exporter and importer fixed effects. We account for coding issues and the potential heterogeneity of the WTO Membership which recent contributions have stressed. While we find that WTO Membership increases the likelihood that a given country pair trades, we do not find that the extensive margin has a strong and systematic effect on the average trade-creating potential of the WTO.
Richard Pomfret - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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multilateralism and regionalism in the south pacific world trade organization and regional fora as complementary institutions for trade facilitation
Social Science Research Network, 2016Co-Authors: Richard PomfretAbstract:As World Trade Organization (WTO) Membership becomes almost universal, the Pacific island countries stand out as the largest group of outsiders. As the islands seek to replace reliance on preferential trading arrangements by competitive exports, market access and trade facilitation have become key policy concerns. In this context, WTO Membership and regional or bilateral trade agreements are complementary institutions for increasing the potential success of new exports. The WTO sets out agreed principles for market access, and Membership includes a dispute resolution process that provides redress against unjustified obstacles to exports, whilst trade facilitation in the sense of overcoming particular cost-raising obstacles to trade is better delivered by regional and bilateral agreements. The argument is supported by evidence from Pacific and other small island economies.
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trade policies in central asia after eu enlargement and before russian WTO accession regionalism and integration into the world economy
Economic Systems, 2005Co-Authors: Richard PomfretAbstract:Abstract This paper analyses the choices between regionalism and multilateralism, and the impact of WTO Membership on the five Central Asian countries. The two main sections analyse (1) why the large number of regional trade agreements signed by the Central Asian countries had little economic impact, and (2) the consequences for these countries of WTO accession. The Central Asian countries’ relationship to the WTO became more pressing after China's WTO accession in December 2001 and with imminent Russian accession. The push towards regionalism is also affected by external events, such as the introduction of the euro, and the EU's eastward expansion in 2004.
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trade policies in central asia after eu enlargement and before russian WTO accession regionalism and integration into the world economy
Others, 2004Co-Authors: Richard PomfretAbstract:This paper analyses the choices between regionalism and multilateralism, and the impact of WTO Membership on the five Central Asian countries. The two main sections analyse (1) why the large number of regional trade agreements which the Central Asian countries have signed have had little economic impact, and (2) the consequences for the Central Asian countries of Chinese and Russian WTO Membership and the consequences of the current Central Asian applicants’ (Kazakhstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan) own WTO accession. During the1990s, many regional trade agreements were signed - arrangements both among the Central Asian countries, and between Central Asian countries and their neighbours (Russia to the north, China to the east, and Iran and Turkey to the south) – but not implemented and, although the Kyrgyz Republic became a WTO member in 1998, the Central Asian countries vacillated between pursuing regional and multilateral trade policy avenues. The Central Asian countries’ relationship to the WTO became a more pressing issue after China’s long-running WTO accession negotiations were successfully concluded in December 200 and as Russian negotiations are move forward. At the same time the push towards regionalism is also affected by external events such as the European Union’s deeper integration, symbolized by the appearance of euro banknotes in 2002, and the eastward expansion of the EU in 2004.
Yoto V Yotov - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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on the heterogeneous trade and welfare effects of gatt WTO Membership
Social Science Research Network, 2020Co-Authors: Gabriel Felbermayr, Mario Larch, Erdal Yalcin, Yoto V YotovAbstract:We build on the latest developments in the structural gravity literature to quantify the partial and general equilibrium effects of GATT/WTO Membership on trade and welfare. Using an extensive database covering manufacturing trade for 186 countries over the period 1980-2016, we find that the average impact of GATT/WTO Membership on trade among member counties is large, positive, and significant. We contribute to the literature by estimating country-specific estimates and find them to vary widely across the countries in our sample with poorer members benefitting more. Using these estimates, we simulate the general equilibrium effects of GATT/WTO on welfare, which are sizable and heterogeneous across members, and relatively small for non-member countries. We show that countries not experiencing positive trade effects from joining GATT/WTO can still gain in terms of welfare, due to beneficial terms-of-trade effects.
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on the effects of gatt WTO Membership on trade they are positive and large after all
Social Science Research Network, 2019Co-Authors: Mario Larch, Joseantonio Monteiro, Roberta Piermartini, Yoto V YotovAbstract:We capitalize on the latest developments in the empirical structural gravity literature to revisit the question of whether and how much does GATT/WTO Membership affect international trade. We are the first to capture the non-discriminatory nature of GATT/WTO commitments by measuring the effects of GATT/WTO Membership on international trade relative to domestic sales. These unilateral effects of GATT/WTO Membership are found to be large, positive, and statistically significant. We also obtain bilateral GATT/WTO estimates, which are larger than those reported in the literature. In particular, our results imply that, on average, joining GATT and/or WTO has increased trade between members by 171% and trade between member and non-member countries by about 88%. We also find that although both GATT/WTO has been effective in promoting trade between members, the WTO has been more effective in promoting trade with non-members than GATT. A battery of sensitivity experiments confirms the effectiveness of our methods and robustness of our main findings.
Boryana Madzharova - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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WTO Membership and the shift to consumption taxes
World Development, 2018Co-Authors: Thiess Buettner, Boryana MadzharovaAbstract:Abstract This paper explores tax policy effects and revenue implications of joining the World Trade Organization (WTO) and its predecessor, the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT). It documents that countries joining GATT/WTO after 1990 have implemented tariff-cum-tax reforms, lowering tariff rates and raising consumption tax rates, in particular through reform or introduction of a value added tax (VAT). Employing a panel of 97 developing and transitional countries, 31 of which joined GATT/WTO between 1990 and 2011, using robust difference-in-difference specifications as well as the synthetic control method, we find a statistically and economically significant decline in revenues from import duties. This finding supports concerns about revenue losses, but also corroborates the efficacy of the late Uruguay GATT and the WTO trade regimes in promoting free trade among new members. Regarding consumption taxes, we find robust evidence that revenue substitution was successful, since revenue losses from import duties were more than compensated for by enhanced revenues from consumption taxes. With regard to the timing of the revenue effects, our results show that revenue losses in import duties mostly take place at the time of Membership or later. Changes in consumption taxation, however, exhibit pre-Membership effects, as revenues are increased, and VAT is adopted, often a few years ahead of losses in import duties. No such effects are found before the start of the accession negotiations, indicating that consumption tax reforms are initiated once a country is on the road to GATT/WTO Membership.
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WTO Membership and the shift to consumption taxes
Social Science Research Network, 2016Co-Authors: Thiess Buettner, Boryana MadzharovaAbstract:Using a panel of 97 mostly developing and transitional countries for the period 1990-2011, this paper explores fiscal implications of Membership in the World Trade Organization (WTO). Employing robust difference-in-difference specifications as well as semi-parametric methods, we find that countries joining the WTO experience a decline in revenues from import duties between 0.5% and 1% of GDP. Revenue losses from import duties are more than compensated for by an increase in consumption taxes. Although triggered by WTO accession, the shift towards consumption taxes, in particular to VAT, typically takes place before trade liberalization commitments result in declining tariff revenues.
