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Accident Prone

The Experts below are selected from a list of 315 Experts worldwide ranked by ideXlab platform

Tarek Sayed – 1st expert on this subject based on the ideXlab platform

  • comparison of two negative binomial regression techniques in developing Accident prediction models
    Transportation Research Record, 2006
    Co-Authors: Karim Elbasyouny, Tarek Sayed

    Abstract:

    There are several regression techniques to develop Accident prediction models. Model development and subsequently the results are affected by the choice of regression technique. The objective of this paper is to compare two types of regression techniques: the traditional negative binomial (TNB) and the modified negative binomial (MNB). The TNB approach assumes that the shape parameter of the negative binomial distribution is fixed for all locations, while the MNB approach assumes that this shape parameter varies with the location’s characteristics. The difference between the two approaches in terms of their goodness of fit and the identification and ranking of AccidentProne locations is investigated. The study makes use of a sample of Accident, volume, and geometric data corresponding to 392 arterial segments in British Columbia, Canada. Both models appear to fit the data well. However, the MNB approach provides a statistically significant improvement in model fit over the TNB approach. A total of 100 locations were identified as AccidentProne by both approaches. A comparison between the ranks showed a close agreement in the general trend of ranking between the two models. While the MNB approach appears to fit the data better than the TNB approach, there was little difference in the results of the identification and ranking of AccidentProne locations. This is likely due to the nature of the application and the data set used. The difference in results will depend on the extent to which deviant sites exist in the data set.

  • A countermeasure-based approach for identifying and treating Accident Prone locations
    Canadian Journal of Civil Engineering, 1997
    Co-Authors: Tarek Sayed, Francis P. D. Navin, Walid Abdelwahab

    Abstract:

    Accident Prone locations are traditionally defined as locations that exhibit higher Accident occurrence (frequency and severity) than an established norm. This definition represents the foundation on which Black Spot programs for safety improvements are established and executed. This paper extends the definition of Accident Prone locations by examining not only Accident frequency and severity but also their patterns. It is argued that a location with a given number of Accidents with well-defined patterns can be treated more effectively than a location with a larger number of Accidents with poorly defined patterns. Traditional approaches start with a problem (high Accident occurrence) and attempt to find solutions (countermeasures). The approach presented in this paper reverses the traditional process by first identifying main Accident patterns that can be targeted by specific countermeasures and then searching for locations that have overrepresentation of these patterns. The approach uses an empirical Bayes technique for the identification process. The approach is not intended as an alternative to traditional methods, but represents a complementary way of targeting safety problems in the sense that it is implemented in parallel with other methods in order to identify locations that exhibit an overrepresentation of specific Accident patterns. The approach is discussed and its usefulness is demonstrated using case studies. It was found that many locations identified in the countermeasure-based program because of their well-defined Accident patterns were not Accident Prone according to the traditional identification approach. This indicates the usefulness of the countermeasure-based approach in identifying locations that have a high chance of being cost effectively treated and which can be missed by the traditional approach.

  • The highway safety expert system : Diagnosing Accident Prone locations
    Civil Engineering Systems, 1997
    Co-Authors: Tarek Sayed

    Abstract:

    Abstract This paper describes the diagnosis phase of a highway safety expert system. The overall objective of the expert system is to provide highway safety officials with an efficient tool to identify Accident Prone locations and then quickly and reliably advise on the appropriate countermeasure(s) based on an analysis of the Accident and roadway environment data. The system has three basic phases: detection, diagnosis and remedy. In the diagnosis phase a knowledge-based system is developed to identify the causes and the contribution factors of safety problems at Accident Prone locations and to suggest appropriate countermeasures. It is shown that the knowledge-based approach best-suits the diagnosis process since it involves a great deal of judgment and experience by the safety engineer. The paper describes different steps involved in developing the diagnosis phase including: knowledge acquisition, problem solving strategy, system features, uncertainty handling, and system verification and validation. T…

Lutfan Lazuardi – 2nd expert on this subject based on the ideXlab platform

  • pw 1353 fatality and spatial analysis of road traffic Accident Prone location in rural indonesia
    Injury Prevention, 2018
    Co-Authors: Aning Isfandyari, Lutfan Lazuardi

    Abstract:

    Road traffic injuries are the leading cause of death among young people aged 15–29 years. In Gunungkidul district, number of road traffic Accidents tend to increase and become the 3rd highest problem in Gunungkidul. Gunungkidul district is the largest rural area in Yogyakarta province which has hilly topography so the road condition is very risky for a crash. This study was aimed to conduct further analysis of road traffic Accidents fatality and identify road traffic AccidentProne location using Geographic Information System. This was a cross-sectional study. Sample was all road traffic Accident recorded in Gunungkidul Police Departement from January 1 st to December 31 st 2015 that met inclusion criteria (377 Accidents). Road traffic Accidents fatality was analyzed using poisson regression with robust variance and road traffic AccidentProne location was analyzed spatially using ArcGIS 10.4 with optimized hot spot analysis method. Of all 377 road traffic Accidents, 63 were fatal crash (17%). The result revealed that 00:00–05:59 a.m was time with highest fatal crash. Uphill/downhill road geometric (PR 2.2: 95% CI 1.14–4.10) and winding road (PR 1.8; 95% CI: 1.02 to 3.21) and also single crash (PR 3.6;95% CI 1.95–6.59) were significant factors affecting road traffic fatality. AccidentProne locations to traffic Accidents in Gunungkidul are clustered on Yogyakarta-Wonosari road, Karangmojo-Semin road, Wonosari-Semanu road and Wonosari-Baron road. Fatal road traffic Accident in Gunungkidul are influenced by environmental conditions and Accident types. Multisectoral coordination was needed to make efforts to modify the environment related to road geometric conditions to minimize the occurrence of road traffic Accidents.

John C Burnham – 3rd expert on this subject based on the ideXlab platform

  • Accident Prone a history of technology psychology and misfits of the machine age
    , 2009
    Co-Authors: John C Burnham

    Abstract:

    Technology demands uniformity from human beings who encounter it. People encountering technology, however, differ from one another. Thinkers in the early twentieth century, observing the awful consequences of interactions between humans and machines – death by automobiles or dismemberment by factory machinery, for example – developed the idea of Accident Proneness: the tendency of a particular person to have more Accidents than most people. In tracing this concept from its birth to its disappearance at the end of the twentieth century, “Accident Prone” offers a unique history of technology focused not on innovations but on their unintended consequences. Here, John C. Burnham shows that as the machine era progressed, the physical and economic impact of Accidents coevolved with the rise of the insurance industry and trends in twentieth-century psychology. After World War I, psychologists determined that some people are more Accident Prone than others. This designation signaled a shift in social strategy toward minimizing Accidents by diverting particular people away from dangerous environments. By the 1960s and ’70s, however, the idea of Accident Proneness gradually declined, and engineers developed new technologies to protect all people, thereby introducing a hidden, but radical, egalitarianism. “Accident Prone” is an ambitious intellectual analysis of the birth, growth, and decline of an idea that will interest anyone who wishes to understand how Western societies have grappled with the human costs of modern life.

  • Accident Proneness unfallneigung a classic case of simultaneous discovery construction in psychology
    Science in Context, 2008
    Co-Authors: John C Burnham

    Abstract:

    Using a striking example from the history of applied psychology, the concept of Accident Proneness, this paper suggests that historians of science may still find viable the idea of simultaneous discovery or construction of a scientific idea. Accident Proneness (Unfallneigung) was discovered independently in Germany and in Britain during the period of World War I. Later on, in 1926, the idea was independently formulated and named in both countries. The evidence shows not only striking simultaneity but true novelty and commensurateness of the two formulations that crystallized at the same time in parallel, but distinctly separate, settings. Language: en Cited in: Burnham JC (2009). Accident Prone: A history of technology, psychology, and misfits of the machine age. Chicago: University of Chicago Press. ISBN-13: 978-0-226-08117-5. The book was favorably reviewed by David Hemenway in Injury Prevention (2011), doi: 10.1136/ip.2011.031658. Special Thanks to Dr. Burnham for providing an electronic copy of the bibliographic notes that accompany each chapter. This greatly facilitated adding previously unidentified records to the SafetyLit database. SafetyLit users may obtain a listing of the book’s references by searching using the following Textword(s) Exact query: “Burnham-AccidentProne“.

  • Accident Proneness (Unfallneigung): a classic case of simultaneous discovery/construction in psychology.
    Science in Context, 2008
    Co-Authors: John C Burnham

    Abstract:

    Using a striking example from the history of applied psychology, the concept of Accident Proneness, this paper suggests that historians of science may still find viable the idea of simultaneous discovery or construction of a scientific idea. Accident Proneness (Unfallneigung) was discovered independently in Germany and in Britain during the period of World War I. Later on, in 1926, the idea was independently formulated and named in both countries. The evidence shows not only striking simultaneity but true novelty and commensurateness of the two formulations that crystallized at the same time in parallel, but distinctly separate, settings. Language: en Cited in: Burnham JC (2009). Accident Prone: A history of technology, psychology, and misfits of the machine age. Chicago: University of Chicago Press. ISBN-13: 978-0-226-08117-5. The book was favorably reviewed by David Hemenway in Injury Prevention (2011), doi: 10.1136/ip.2011.031658. Special Thanks to Dr. Burnham for providing an electronic copy of the bibliographic notes that accompany each chapter. This greatly facilitated adding previously unidentified records to the SafetyLit database. SafetyLit users may obtain a listing of the book’s references by searching using the following Textword(s) Exact query: “Burnham-AccidentProne“.